Week 10 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 9, 4:45 p.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 10 – Early Games
Broncos at Browns, Jaguars at Lions, Ravens at Texans, Seahawks at Dolphins, Titans at Bears, Saints at Falcons, Packers at Vikings, Rams at Jets, Bills at Patriots

NFL Picks Week 10 – Late Games
Panthers at Raiders, Colts at Steelers, Chiefs at Chargers, Giants at Eagles, 49ers at Cardinals

BYE: Bengals, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Redskins


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I’ll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it’ll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It’ll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. New England Patriots – New England’s massive victory over Denver makes them extremely overrated. People will see 34-0 and say, “Wow, New England is fine with Matt Cassel!” No they’re not. Jay Cutler was injured on the first play of the game. Cassel still can’t throw longer than 20 yards and the defense is slow and old.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – It’s amazing how overrated this team continues to be on a weekly basis. Even I was duped that they would come through in a must-win situation at Cincinnati. The offensive line sucks so much, Cedric Benson’s rushing total was double of the combined yardage of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor!

David Garrard hasn’t totally sucked only twice this year. Once was against the Texans. The other time was last week against Denver. What do those teams have in common? They both have horrible defenses.

3. San Diego Chargers – Any time any analyst on ESPN speaks of the Chargers, they say something like, “They’ll be OK. They’ll win games.” Why will they be OK? Their defense absolutely sucks because Shawne Merriman is hurt and Jamal Williams is over the hill. And though he had a nice game against the Saints, LaDainian Tomlinson is hurt and far from 100 percent.

So, what happened to this team? Well, I called it at the beginning of the year – Philip Rivers is coming off a torn ACL. Tomlinson had an MCL injury. Antonio Gates didn’t practice until September. Merriman is out. Plus, Norv Turner is clueless as usual.

4. New York Jets – People want to talk about the Jets being one of the top teams in the league. How quickly we forget that they barely beat the Chiefs and lost to the Raiders.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Cleveland Browns – I’ve been talking about this for weeks. No one knows how to read the Browns. When the public has picked them, they’ve lost. When the public has faded them, they’ve won and/or covered.

The Browns aren’t the greatest team in the league, but they’re not terrible. In fact, if Braylon Edwards doesn’t drop a long touchdown, Cleveland is probably 4-4 right now, with close losses coming to Pittsburgh and Washington, and victories versus the Giants and at Jacksonville.

2. Buffalo Bills – I picked against Buffalo last week because the team is not ready to be a large favorite. But I still think the Bills are one of the top teams in the AFC. People forget that they impressively beat the Chargers by nine and the Seahawks (with Matt Hasselbeck) by 24. They also won at Jacksonville. All three of their losses are to teams that are .500 or better right now.

3. Atlanta Falcons – I’m not sure casual NFL fans understand how great Atlanta has played this year. The Falcons just traveled cross-country and debacled the Raiders – something the AFC East-leading Jets couldn’t do. After starting 2-2, they’ve beaten Chicago and Green Bay, and stuck with the Eagles on the road. Matt Ryan could go down as the best rookie quarterback of all time.

4. San Francisco 49ers – I think the 49ers are bad, but they’re not terrible. People only remember the last thing they see, and they’ll likely focus on an ugly loss to Seattle. However, San Francisco stuck with the Giants, Eagles and Patriots before blowing a cover in each of those games. The 49ers are switching to Shaun Hill, who will actually take care of the football, unlike J.T. O’Sullivan.















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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5
Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6
Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)