NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2009): 9-6-1 (+$700)

NFL Picks (2009): 100-72-5 (+$7,010)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 30, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

Green Bay Packers (6-4) at Detroit Lions (2-8)
Line: Packers by 11.5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Packers -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Packers -9.
Happy Thanksgiving, 12:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Packers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

I’ll get to how I did last week (some interesting stuff) and all the Vegas implications starting with the Sunday games. In this space, I’d like to bring up an article I wrote a few years ago.

The Lions don’t deserve a Thanksgiving game. The NFL should take it away and promise to give it back to them until they post a winning record. Unfortunately for Lions fans, that could be in the year 2075.

Some may argue that it’s tradition, and it shouldn’t be messed with. What tradition? Here was my tradition before this Web site became my full-time job: I went out Wednesday night, the so-called “biggest drinking night of the year.” Came home completely drunk. Passed out around 3 a.m. Woke up just in time for kickoff. Vomited multiple times all over myself because I was way too hung over to make it to the toilet. Watched the Lions get completely debacled. Barfed some more so I had room to eat turkey later.

Detroit has lost its previous Thanksgiving games by the scores of: 37-26, 27-10, 27-7, 41-9 and 41-10. That’s an average margin of 22.2 points! Seriously, Roger Goodell needs to do something about this. Until the Lions can field a competitive team, they shouldn’t be allowed to embarrass the league every year.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Making matters worse, it looks like both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will sit this one out. Beat writer Tom Kowalski said Stafford is “not expected to play.” The Detroit Free Press, meanwhile, called Megatron doubtful. So much for seeing this new high-flying Lions offense.

Jim Schwartz and Scott Linehan will have to rely on the running game to get them through this contest. Unfortunately, Kevin Smith won’t be able to do much on the ground; the Packers have surrendered more than 100 rushing yards only once since September.

Aaron Kampman is done for the year, but Green Bay’s pass rush should still be able to give Daunte Culpepper fits. Detroit’s offensive line has allowed 30 sacks this year, so it could get pretty ugly if the Packers don’t have to concentrate on stopping Megatron.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I don’t know what was said in the Packers’ closed-door meeting two weeks ago, but their line blocking has really improved since. Aaron Rodgers was sacked only twice against the 49ers. I know San Francisco doesn’t have a quality pass rush, but neither does Detroit (18 sacks in 10 games).

Rodgers should have all the time in the world to locate Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley downfield, especially considering that he’ll have play-action opportunities off an effective running game. Ryan Grant, who rushed for 129 yards on 21 carries against the 49ers last week, will easily slice through a Detroit defense that has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in all but three contests this year.

RECAP: The Packers are on a roll. They completely shut down a hot Cowboys squad and then followed that up with a blowout victory over San Francisco. They’ll ride their momentum into this game, where they shouldn’t have any problems against a Stafford- and Megatron-less Lions squad.

Detroit historically has really struggled on Thanksgiving. I mentioned all of those scores above. Overall, since 2002, the Lions are 1-6 against the spread as Turkey Day hosts, with many of those lines being double-digit spreads like this one.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Surprise, surprise.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 90% (243,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 16 of the last 18 meetings.

Turkey Turds: Lions are 1-6 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2002.

Lions are 11-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006 (1-5 in 2009).

Opening Line: Packers -10.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Lions 17
Packers -11.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 48 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Packers 34, Lions 12

Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Line: Cowboys by 13.5. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Cowboys -17.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Cowboys -15.5.
Happy Thanksgiving, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

I can no longer get drunk out of my mind and blow 0.5s the night before Thanksgiving because I have to take my full-time job (this site) seriously. So, I can’t have fun the night before Thanksgiving. That said, Thanksgiving is still my favorite holiday in the world. What other holiday allows you to stuff your face with food, watch nine hours of football and pass out like a fat slob?

And the best part is, because this is my job, I can get out of doing work around the house in the future when I have a family. Ha! Take that, future wife and kids! Go clean and make food! Walt’s gotta work!

DALLAS OFFENSE: What has happened to these guys the past two weeks? At Green Bay, the Cowboys were essentially shut out. They didn’t run the ball nearly enough. Against the Redskins, they went back to their ground attack, but ventured into the red zone only twice all afternoon.

Dallas’ sudden swoon is pretty explainable. Jason Garrett did a horrific job play-calling against a pretty solid Packers defense in what was a classic letdown game. The Redskins, meanwhile, also have a quality stop unit themselves. They completely erased Miles Austin-Jones and Roy Williams. Tony Romo also suffered a slight back injury, which caused a lot of his throws to be high early on.

Romo should be fine. He’s practicing, and was pretty sharp on the final drive of the Washington game anyway. He should be able to attack the side of the field opposite Nnamdi Asomugha; even with Asomugha, Oakland is 24th versus the pass.

The Raiders are most susceptible to the run. They’ve given up an unbelievable 705 rushing yards in the past four games. As long as Garrett doesn’t out-smart himself and sticks to handing the ball off to Marion Barber, the Cowboys should be able to get out of their offensive slump.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Bruce Gradkowski was pretty mediocre throughout the victory over the Bengals, but was really impressive on his penultimate drive, where he went 5-of-9 for 79 yards for the game-tying touchdown.

However, things will be a bit different here than it was against a sleepwalking Cincinnati squad. The Cowboys will be focused off two dismal performances. They bring tons of pressure, and they should be able to have their way with an Oakland front that has allowed 27 sacks in 10 contests. Dallas also plays well versus the run, so Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush won’t do much either.

RECAP: Tony Romo’s three Thanksgiving games: 34-9 over Seattle (-11.5), 34-3 over the Jets (-14) and 38-10 over Tampa Bay (-12.5).

Romo spends too much time golfing and dating celebrities, so winning in the national spotlight on Thanksgiving plays right into his agenda. Romo may choke in the clutch, but he shines in these easy Turkey Day battles.

This is a tough spot for the Raiders regardless. Off a big win, they have to travel east on a short week. That’s pretty difficult to do in a regular situation.

The Cowboys have been chastised on national TV and they have something to prove here. This is a statement game.

SURVIVOR PICK: There are four big home favorites to consider as your survivor pick this week: Dallas, San Diego, Atlanta and Cincinnati.

In order, I like the Cowboys, Bengals, Chargers and Falcons. Dallas tops the list because it has the only non-divisional matchup. Cincinnati is No. 2 because it will be focused off a loss to the Raiders.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

Tony Romo and the Cowboys always get up for this game. Statement game for Dallas off two sluggish performances.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
People believe in the Raiders!

Percentage of money on Dallas: 55% (235,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Turkey Tyrants: Cowboys are 6-2 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2001.

Tony Romo is 23-13 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 3-0 ATS on Thanksgiving.

Opening Line: Cowboys -14.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Retractable roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Cowboys 38, Raiders 6
Cowboys -13.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 40 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Survivor Pick (11-0)
Cowboys 24, Raiders 7

New York Giants (6-4) at Denver Broncos (6-4)
Line: Giants by 6. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Giants -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Giants -4.
Happy Thanksgiving, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Giants.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

I’m obviously a huge fan of having football on Thanksgiving, but I’m still not sure how I feel about this third game. This is the best matchup of the day – seriously NFL, thanks for showing us Lions and Raiders – but I’ll probably want to pass out by the time the first quarter is over.

I love food, and I plan on eating a lot during Thanksgiving dinner. I’ll be sweating tripdaphan by the time I’m done. I don’t think I can physically handle a third game. I’ll probably have to buy a case of those 5-hour energy drinks and down them all at once. That probably can’t end well. If you hear that I’m in the hospital on Friday, you’ll know why. Blame Roger Goodell.

DENVER OFFENSE: Every fan should wear black to this game to commemorate the death of the 2009 Broncos. Remember when they were 6-0, and I was receiving hate mail for dismissing their chances this season? That was so long ago.

It’s really unfortunate for Denver that this contest is on a short work week. Kyle Orton played well on one series against the Chargers, but otherwise looked pretty terrible. He’s nowhere near 100 percent, and having only a few days of rest won’t help.

With Orton banged up, the Broncos will need to establish Knowshon Moreno on the ground. That could be a bit of a problem because the Giants have been pretty stout against the rush, allowing 90 yards or less on the ground in three of their past four games (the exception was against the Eagles, thanks to a fluky long run by Leonard Weaver).

The one thing that appears to be in Denver’s favor here is that New York’s front won’t be able to get past the Broncos’ offensive line. The Giants have only 22 sacks on the year, while Denver has allowed just 19 sacks. However, things changed ever since right tackle Ryan Harris suffered a foot injury. In the three games without Harris, the Broncos have given up eight sacks.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I guess we can stop asking Eli Manning if his foot is OK. Manning was incredibly sharp against the Falcons, going 25-of-39 for 384 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.

Denver won’t be able to stop Manning from connecting on his trademark third-down conversions. Once upon a time, the Broncos had a really good defense. Unfortunately, all of their old veterans have worn down, and because Josh McDaniels completely mishandled the 2009 NFL Draft, there aren’t any young players stepping up.

You really have to dislike Denver’s chances against Manning, especially if Brandon Jacobs runs well. Since their bye, the Broncos have surrendered 675 rushing yards in four contests. It’s getting really bad.

RECAP: The Giants really needed that victory over the Falcons. You could see that Manning and Tom Coughlin were relieved in their post-game press conferences.

With confidence now on their side, I think New York goes into Denver and wins by double digits. You don’t want any part of the reeling Broncos right now.

I usually like taking hosts – especially home underdogs – in weeknight games, but the emotion of Invesco Field won’t rattle the Giants; they’ve won in hostile environments before.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Broncos are reeling, but they might be able to feed off of the emotion of the crowd. Unfortunately for them, they’re playing a team that thrives on the road and won’t be rattled.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action – a bit of a surprise.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (196,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 24-8 ATS on the road since 2006.

Broncos are 6-15 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Broncos are 3-11 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 14 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Giants 31, Broncos 17
Giants -6 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 42 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Broncos 26, Giants 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-9) at Atlanta Falcons (5-5)
Line: Falcons by 12.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Falcons -13.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Falcons -11.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 11 Recap: My second losing NFL Pick of the Month since the 2007 season. I took the Jaguars because the Bills fired their head coach. This is a system that works really well most of the time and I will continue to stand by it. However, nothing works all of the time.

As you can imagine, I received some hate mail for getting that selection wrong. That said, I still had a winning week overall, going 9-6-1 for +$700. Not bad considering I lost $880 because of Jack Del Rio and Dirk Koetter’s ineptness (who would ever think to run the ball versus the league’s worst rush defense? That’s just crazy.)

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Like Eli Manning, Matt Ryan did a great job snapping out of a slump. Prior to the Giants game, Ryan had thrown six interceptions to just three touchdowns in three contests. However, Ryan was 26-of-46 for 268 yards and two scores at New York. Ryan seemed to regain his confidence, especially on two impressive drives in the fourth quarter.

This is bad news for the Buccaneers, who are renowned for having one of the league’s worst defenses. In fact, Raheem Morris just stripped Jim Bates of his defensive play-calling duties. Tampa Bay has allowed 31.5 points per game in their past four contests, but then again, it’s not like Bates has much to work with.

Jason Snelling had a decent outing last week, so he’ll be able to trample a horrid Buccaneers run defense that has somehow surrendered 926 rushing yards in their past five games. It doesn’t get much worse than that.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Josh Freeman played pretty well against the Packers and was solid the week after at Miami. However, ball security has become a huge issue with him. In his past two starts, Freeman has four interceptions and five fumbles. You can’t turn the ball over like that and expect to win (or cover) in the NFL.

The three teams Freeman has battled thus far are the Packers, Dolphins and Saints, so these Falcons are easily a step down in defense from those other three opponents. Their corners were completely exposed last week against the Giants, and they’ve allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all but three games this year.

Freeman could have some success moving the chains, but what he needs to do most is refrain from committing turnovers. That could be difficult for him to do in a hostile environment like the Georgia Dome.

RECAP: Speaking of the Georgia Dome, the Falcons thrive there. In his short career, Matt Ryan is 9-2 against the spread as a host, including 4-0 this year.

I’m a bit concerned that Atlanta could come out flat after a loss to the Giants, and two tough battles against the Eagles and Saints after this. However, the Falcons need to win this game, and I just can’t back the Buccaneers with any confidence, given that the turnover-happy Freeman will be playing on the road for the second time in his pro career.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The struggling Falcons may have had an emotional loss at the Giants. They could also be in a Breather Alert because they have the Eagles and Saints after this easy contest. However, they could also be focused because they know they need a win.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Two-thirds of the action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 78% (166,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Buccaneers have won 12 of the last 17 meetings.

History: Home Team has won the last 3 meetings.

Matt Ryan is 9-2 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -11.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Falcons 34, Buccaneers 17
Falcons -12.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 20, Buccaneers 17

Miami Dolphins (5-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)
Line: Dolphins by 3.5. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Dolphins -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Dolphins -3.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Vegas Recap: Historically, Vegas likes to give money back to the public the week before Black Friday. Not this year. The sportsbooks went 7-3 with their lopsided games, which might mean that there will be less betting action in December once everyone buys their Christmas gifts. Perhaps the oddsmakers figured that would be the case anyway in this economy.

Vegas won with the Dolphins, Browns, Chiefs, Falcons, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Raiders covering. They lost with the Colts, Vikings and Patriots beating the number.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: What are the Bills going to do with their offensive line? Left tackle Demetrius Bell is out. Guard Andy Levitre has filled in at that spot, but his replacement, Seth McKinney suffered a knee injury and is done for the year. Right guard Eric Wood also had a season-ending injury against the Jaguars. In total, Buffalo has just five healthy offensive linemen. This just in: That’s not good.

The Dolphins are really weak versus the run – they’ve yielded at least 109 rushing yards in their past six games – but I just have no idea how the Bills are going to open up any running lanes for Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.

Meanwhile, keeping Joey Porter and Jason Taylor out of the backfield on third-and-long situations will be more of a challenge. Pass blocking wasn’t much of a challenge for this hobbled offensive line against the horribly inept Jaguars, but Miami has 29 sacks on the year.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I guess the Dolphins don’t need Ronnie Brown to be successful on offense. Ricky Williams was prolific against the Panthers, rushing for 119 yards on 22 carries. He could be even better on Sunday because Buffalo has surrendered at least 100 rushing yards in every game since Week 2. Unlike Jack Del Rio, Tony Sparano is smart enough to stick with what works.

The Bills have an opportunistic secondary, but they’ve been thrown on the past four weeks. David Garrard was a solid 21-of-30 for 215 yards on Sunday, converting third-down situations with ease. As long as Sparano doesn’t have a Del Rio-like brain fart, Chad Henne will be able to move the chains on third-and-short. Henne won’t have much pressure in his face; his offensive line didn’t allow a single sack at Carolina.

RECAP: Del Rio’s incompetence allowed the Bills to hang with the Jaguars. Sparano actually has a working brain and will not put a futile game plan together.

As long as Sparano sticks with Williams, Miami should easily defeat a Buffalo squad that currently has major offensive line issues. You win games in the trenches in the NFL, and that’s a very weak area for the Bills right now.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Dolphins are in a possible Look-Ahead Alert with the Patriots coming up in Week 13.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No one believes in the Perry Fewell Bills yet?

Percentage of money on Miami: 88% (156,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Dolphins have won the last 3 meetings.

Road Rules: Tony Sparano is 4-0 ATS on the road after a road game.

Dolphins are 8-2 ATS vs. AFC East since 2008.

Dolphins are 0-5 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more under Tony Sparano.

Bills are 21-14 ATS as a dog under the Dick Jauron/Perry Fewell regime.

Bills are 22-12 ATS in November home games the previous 34 contests.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Few showers, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Bills 9
Dolphins -3.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 31, Dolphins 14

Cleveland Browns (1-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)
Line: Bengals by 13. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Bengals -16.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Bengals -15.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I feel like I’m stranded on a deserted island writing this, but it’s been four weeks now, and still no cleavage from Rebecca Grant, the Verizon V-Cast chick who appears on FOX before the 1 p.m. games each Sunday.

What are Verizon and FOX doing? I wait all week to see Rebecca Grant. Why are they depriving us? Come to think of it, I’d rather be stranded on a deserted island than not see Rebecca Grant’s cleavage.

2. I may have dropped $880 on the Jaguars-Bills game – once again, you can see hate mail about this here – but it wasn’t a total loss. For one, I finally learned how to pronounce Perry Fewell’s name. I thought it was FEH-well or Fe-WELL or Fare-WELL. I found it funny that it’s pronounced “Fuel.” Fuel? Really? Are they making it that easy for me to refer to him as the Perry Fuel Oil Company? This is like an early Christmas gift.

3. Two fun facts from forum member BobLoblaw:

– Rookie Jarius Byrd (8 INTs) has caught more balls from quarterbacks than rookie Darius Heyward-Bey (7 catches)

– The New Orleans Saints defense has more yards off of interceptions (566) than the Raiders WRs have catching the ball (540)

Let’s all thank Al Davis for helping to produce these hilarious stats. We couldn’t have done it without him!

4. Not an NFL comment (at least not right away), but I have to rant about the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They’ve screwed me twice this year by possessing the ball at the goal line and not being able to get into the end zone. Twice, they’ve had it at the 1-yard line on a 1st-and-goal late in the game for a potential touchdown to cover the spread. On eight downs, they’ve failed to gain a single yard!

I’m not sure who the coach of Minnesota is, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Andy Reid. Hey, it’s a tough economy, and Reid spends a ton of money each week on his meals. Perhaps he needs a second job to get by.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: How did the Browns defense stop Baltimore? I saw the entire game, and I know Shaun Rogers dominated the line of scrimmage. But where was this against the Lions? Matthew Stafford went 26-of-43 for 422 yards and five touchdowns after Joe Flacco led the Ravens to just 16 points? Really?

The one good thing the Browns did at Detroit was limit the Lions to just 57 rushing yards. Believe it or not, this was the first time all year that Cleveland surrendered less than 134 rushing yards in a single game. There won’t be a Super Bowl, so can the mayor of Cleveland-town throw a parade for this?

The Bengals will be able to run on the Browns with Bernard Scott, who was pretty solid at Oakland last week. This will allow Carson Palmer to capitalize with play-action and convert short-yardage situations. Cleveland is 29th versus the pass and won’t be able to stop him.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Maybe Eric Mangina shouldn’t have benched Brady Quinn early in the year after all. Quinn was 21-of-33 for 304 yards and four touchdowns. Instead of being afraid and checking it down on every play, Quinn took multiple downfield shots to Mohamed Massquoi and Chansi Stuckey.

Of course, this was against the Lions. Doing this against the Bengals will obviously be a much more difficult proposition. Corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph will erase Massaquoi and Stuckey, and perhaps scare Quinn into becoming the quarterback we all saw struggle against Baltimore.

Unlike last week, Quinn won’t have a solid ground attack by his side. The Bengals haven’t allowed 100 rushing yards to any team since Oct. 4. It’ll all be up to Quinn to lead Cleveland to a victory.

RECAP: I’m going against Cincinnati for the same reason I did last week. The Bengals seldom are successful in terms of covering a high line. Since 2007, they are 1-7 against the spread when favored by 3.5 or more.

Cincinnati’s offense is just not explosive, which makes it really difficult to lay the 14; excluding one instance, the Bengals haven’t scored more than 18 points since Oct. 4.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Browns care about this game more than the Bengals do.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Early action on the Browns, but it has completely shifted toward the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 77% (164,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Bengals have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Browns are 13-5 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.

Bengals are 5-12 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 1-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -14.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Few showers, 57 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Bengals 20, Browns 10
Browns +13 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 16, Browns 7

Seattle Seahawks (3-7) at St. Louis Rams (1-9)
Line: Seahawks by 4. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Seahawks -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Seahawks -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I read on NFL.com’s new crappy GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “FALCONS DIDENT GET SCREWED BY ANYONE THEY JUST CANT BEAT CERTIAN TEAMZ [GIANTS BEING ONE OF THEM] SO NEVER SAY THAT THE FALCONS GOT SCREWED BY ANYONE ESPECIALLYBY THE NFL”

“ESPECIALLYBY,” eh? Even Emmitt’s confused by that one.

2. “Giants are back!? are you serious?!! LOL Your only playing the Falcons. She-li sucks , the NFC east is a “G-Y” mans fantasy and Giants fans can go to he11 with the cowboys.”

She-li – best nickname since Vagiants.

3. “wat have the vikes did did dey win any championsships ??????”

What the Vikings did did was probably spell more than half of the words in their sentences correctly.

ST. LOUIS RAMS: What a shame – it looked like the Rams were finally starting to click on offense. Now Marc Bulger is out for the year and Kyle Boller will take over as the start. Spoiler alert: Boller sucks.

The Rams will continue to utilize their strategy of giving the ball to Steven Jackson as much as possible. Jackson will help move the chains – the Seahawks have allowed at least 113 rushing yards in each of the past four weeks – but ultimately, the onus will fall on Boller to lead St. Louis into the end zone.

In three games this year, Boller has thrown for 481 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. His completion percentage is a mediocre 57.0, while his YPA is horrific at 5.6. Many quarterbacks have torched Seattle’s secondary this year, but Boller led the Rams to a grand total of 10 points in his two starts. I wouldn’t be able to trust him.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The one encouraging thing about the Seahawks’ 35-9 loss to the Vikings was Justin Forsett. He ran for just nine yards, but he had eight catches for 80 receiving yards. Seattle won’t be able to run the ball on most teams, but at least they have Forsett now as a threat out of the backfield.

I said “most teams” because Seattle’s rushing attack could work here. The Rams have surrendered at least 127 rushing yards to their previous five opponents.

With a rare solid ground game to support him, Matt Hasselbeck should be able to torch a Rams secondary currently ranked 28th versus the pass.

RECAP: I know the Seahawks stink this year, but they were awful as well last year and they swept the Rams. In fact, Seattle has taken the past nine from St. Louis.

The Rams have been playing better lately, but that could change with Bulger done for the year. In the two games Boller has started this year, St. Louis has lost by a combined score of 73-10.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No one wants any part of the Kyle Boller-led Rams, even against the 3-7 Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 82% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Seahawks have won the last 9 meetings.

Third Road Alert: Teams in their third-consecutive road game are 13-16 ATS since 2000 (misleading).

Matt Hasselbeck is 9-3 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Matt Hasselbeck is 8-14 ATS as a road favorite.

Seahawks are 10-21 ATS on the road since 2006.

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Rams 10
Seahawks -4 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 27, Rams 17

Carolina Panthers (4-6) at New York Jets (4-6)
Line: Jets by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Jets -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Jets -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

1. “Cleveland beating Detroit is like being the smartest kid with down syndrome! Nothing to brag about.”

It’s always classy to make fun of the mentally disabled.

2. “Lions / Browns tide at 24? Great defensive game”

The guy who invented the dictionary would jump off a building if he read some of these quotes.

3. “THE REAL SCARY THING IS THAT THE CHARGERS CAN ONLY GET BETTER. BARE NO INJURIES WE R SUPPERBOWL BOUND. MAN THOSE HORSE BURRITOS SHURE TASTE GOOD. HA HA HA. DENVER LOOSES. NEXT VICTIM KANSAS CITY. STAY TUNE.”

We will definitely “stay tune” for more poor grammar from you.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I’ve complained a ton about Jack Del Rio’s idiotic decision to avoid running the ball against the Bills. Well, back in 2002, Del Rio was Carolina’s defensive coordinator. He coached under John Fox. Fox has also been guilty of not pounding the rock enough with DeAngelo Williams at times this season, including Thursday’s loss to Miami. Coincidence? I think not.

Now in an underdog role again, Fox will wise up and ask his play-callers to run the ball with Williams as much as possible. This will work wonders against the Jets, who have surrendered at least 111 rushing yards in all but one contest dating back to Sept. 27.

The Panthers will need Williams and Jonathan Stewart to move the chains for two reasons: First, Darrelle Revis will take Steve Smith out of the game. No one else on Carolina can get open, so Delhomme will struggle to find anyone downfield. And second, left tackle Jordan Gross’ absence made things really difficult for Delhomme against the Dolphins. I know the Jets don’t get much pressure on the quarterback, but pass protection will still be a big concern for Carolina if it has to air it out on third-and-long.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez really should be tested if he’s colorblind. He had wide-open receivers downfield last week, but fired the ball to Patriots corners instead. It also didn’t help Sanchez that Braylon Edwards had two big drops. He’s terrible, and in my opinion, should not be re-signed. I’d rather take a shot on Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell or Dez Bryant.

Rex Ryan better be careful because Sanchez will be battling a very opportunistic Carolina secondary that stops the pass pretty well. Rex Ryan will need to limit Sanchez’s throws.

Pulling a reverse John Fox or Jack Del Rio will work. Carolina’s run defense is among the NFL’s worst, so Thomas Jones should have a big day on the ground as long as Ryan and Brian Schottenheimer don’t get cute with their play-calling.

RECAP: Major psychological advantage for the Panthers. The Jets put everything into their game against the Patriots. They kept things close for a while, but Sanchez ultimately let them down.

After starting 3-0, New York’s season is over. The victory the team had over the Patriots in Week 2 has obviously been exposed as a mirage.

I just can’t see the Jets coming back strong off a loss like that. Conversely, John Fox usually responds well after dropping a game as a favorite. The Panthers have more to play for because they have to leapfrog less teams to qualify for the playoffs (three, compared to New York’s five).

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Jets probably knew that the Patriots game was their final shot. They played hard, and the game was within 10 for a while, but they ended up losing. Now they have to get up for a crap Carolina squad that just lost on national TV.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
Slight edge on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 54% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Winning Coach: John Fox is 14-6 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Panthers are 30-22 ATS as an underdog the previous 52 instances.

Jake Delhomme is 32-18 ATS on the road.

Jake Delhomme is 26-11 ATS as an underdog in his career.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny, 54 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Panthers 20, Jets 13
Panthers +3.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 17, Panthers 6

Washington Redskins (3-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)
Line: Eagles by 9.5. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Eagles -14.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Eagles -14.

Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some weird things were said by NFL players and TV analysts recently. I don’t make fun of these people enough, I know. Here are some of them and my thoughts on each:

1. Bills owner Ralph Wilson, when asked about Mike Shanahan: “I don’t know anything about him.”

Oh, really? If you know nothing about Mike Shanahan, including his two Super Bowls, then why are you meeting to potentially hire him? Did you see his name in the classifieds and like the way his name rolled off your tongue? I think we caught Old Man Wilson in a lie.

2. JaMarcus Russell on getting benched: “Really can’t explain it. Things were going OK, toward the end.”

Sure, your team was 2-7, and you had nine interceptions to just two touchdowns, and your completion percentage was 46.8, but things were going OK toward the end. Anyone think Russell is playing as himself in Madden, and is getting confused between video games and reality? There’s a high probability that this is happening, right?

3. Matt Millen: “Tony Sparano’s looking more like a Soprano than a Sparano.”

Perhaps the most cryptic statement said by anyone in this calendar year. What does this even mean? What is a Sparano supposed to look like?

Were incoherent thoughts like these running through Millen’s head when he was drafting Charles Rogers and Mike Williams? As a fellow Penn State alumnus, I’d love to defend Millen here, but I’d fully expect people to question my sanity if I said, “Matt Millen’s looking more like a Miller than a Millen.”

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I mentioned this in my 2009 NFL Power Rankings: In the three games since the bye, Jason Campbell has just two interceptions (one in desperation time) and no fumbles. Sherman Smith, Bingo announcer extraordinaire, is doing wonders in Washington.

What’s more amazing is that Campbell has taken only four sacks in the past two weeks. Washington’s offensive line has been ravaged with injuries and consequently had allowed 27 sacks in the first eight games of the year. But Campbell’s protection has been a lot better lately.

That’s important because the Eagles usually bring a ton of pressure. Philly also stops the run well, so Campbell will have to convert third-and-long situations. I don’t think he’ll be able to do that consistently, but the important thing is that he won’t commit turnovers. Instead, he’ll get the ball out quickly to Rock Cartwright, Antwaan Randle El and Santana Moss.

Cartwright, who will start in place of the injured Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, caught seven balls for 73 yards at Dallas.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I don’t know what got into Andy Reid, but he called 20 running plays for LeSean McCoy last week and actually walked away from the game with two timeouts in his pocket. Perhaps the two timeouts served a nice post-game snack?

Reid would be wise to utilize McCoy as much as possible again. The Redskins really struggle against the run; they’ve surrendered at least 100 rushing yards in all but one contest this season.

However, do you really think that Reid will be smart enough to stick with the ground attack two weeks in a row? I’ve watched Reid screw things up for 11 years here in Philly, so I have my doubts.

If I’m right, and Donovan McNabb airs it out 50 times, the Eagles will struggle to score. Washington is very good against the pass and should be able to contain Philadelphia’s offense. Remember, the Eagles posted 27 points on the Redskins on Oct. 26, but 14 of those came off of two fluky long plays. Washington held McNabb in check (15-25, 156, 1 TD) for most of that contest.

RECAP: I don’t think the Eagles will be focused here. They already beat Washington, so with a two-game road trip against the Falcons and Giants coming up, they may take this game lightly.

The Redskins have played a lot better since the bye. Campbell has gained more confidence and he’s not turning the ball over. He had a pick and two fumbles against the Eagles the first time these teams battled, and Philly won that contest by only 10 points. If Campbell is careful this time around, the Redskins will have a chance to win this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

Breather Alert for the Eagles, who have a two-game road trip against the Falcons and Giants after this easy contest. The Redskins have been playing with more confidence lately.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Two-thirds of the money is on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 74% (180,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Redskins have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Redskins are 7-4 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2007.

Redskins are 9-6 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.

Redskins are 6-18 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Eagles are 61-36 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 28-17 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 28-17 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -9.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Sunny, 57 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Eagles 20, Redskins 16
Redskins +9.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 27, Redskins 24

Indianapolis Colts (10-0) at Houston Texans (5-5)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Colts -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Colts -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 11 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, the 9-0 Patriots hire a spy to prepare for the Todd Haley-led Browns. However, Haley has a trick up his own sleeve.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Entering the Monday night game against the Titans, Houston’s defense had limited their previous six opponents to less than 100 rushing yards. Tennessee came up with 228 yards on the ground.

Fortunately, the Texans don’t have to worry about Chris Johnson and Vince Young this time around. Bernard Pollard and company held Joseph Addai to 63 yards on 14 carries in a Nov. 8 meeting.

Houston’s run defense forced Peyton Manning to take matters into his own hands. He was 34-of-50 for 318 yards and a touchdown. Those stats may look pretty from a fantasy perspective, but that YPA was just 6.4, which is uncharacteristically low for Manning.

Manning continuously went to Dallas Clark, who came up with 14 grabs for 119 yards. I’d say the Texans need to do a better job of keeping Clark in check, but they held Indianapolis’ offense to just 20 points. Apparently, their plan worked.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Like the Colts, the Texans couldn’t establish much of a ground attack. Ryan Moats and Steve Slaton combined for just 55 yards on 22 carries.

Matt Schaub was able to keep Houston in the game – and eventually obtain a lead in the fourth quarter – by going 32-of-43 for 311 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. A leaky Colts secondary surrendered 10 catches for 103 yards to Andre Johnson. Not that anyone outside of Darrelle Revis can stop Johnson.

The Texans have tons of weapons and should be able to move the chains consistently. They out-gained the Colts the last time these teams battled each other (382-378), so it’s not a stretch to say that could happen again.

RECAP: I made a big play on the Texans the first time around. That game meant much more to them than it did to the Colts, and nine points were too many for this rivalry.

Houston covered that contest and really should have won. They committed countless unforced errors, including offside penalties on multiple fourth-and-shorts and a fumble at the 1. And despite all of that, they still had a chance to send the game to overtime, but Kris Brown missed the tying field goal (shocker).

However, this situation is a bit tougher. This rivalry is always close – five of the past six meetings (including the previous three) have been decided by six points or less. But the thing is, the Colts have won all of those matchups except for one.

I think the Texans keep this game close, but Peyton Manning will ultimately prevail once again. I’ll take the points, but only because the line is above three. If this spread were three or less, I’d heavily consider the Colts.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

This is Houston’s Super Bowl. If they lose this game, they fall to 5-6, and their season is probably over.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

People love the Colts here.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 74% (203,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Colts have won 14 of the 15 meetings.

Colts are 37-23 ATS on the road since 2002.

Peyton Manning is 28-18 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Texans are 8-0 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006.

Texans are 8-6 ATS in November home games.

Opening Line: Colts -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Retractable roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Texans 20
Texans +3.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Under 48 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Colts 35, Texans 27

Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chiefs at Chargers, Jaguars at 49ers, Bears at Vikings, Cardinals at Titans, Steelers at Ravens, Patriots at Saints

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 17

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 16

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 4-2 (+$390)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 1-1 (-$30)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 15, 2024): 10-5-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 15, 2024): +$570

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 117-109-9, 51.8% (-$3,210)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 29-37-1, 43.9% (-$2,035)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22, 53.2% (+$475)
2024 Season Over-Under: 111-108-5, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$990

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,538-3,261-205, 52.0% (+$18,460)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,136-1,022-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 578-507-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,970-2,942-79 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-7	Bears: 6-7	Bucs: 8-6	49ers: 8-6
Eagles: 8-6	Lions: 11-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 10-4
Giants: 5-8	Packers: 10-3	Panthers: 5-9	Rams: 7-7
Redskins: 6-7	Vikings: 6-7	Saints: 6-8	Seahawks: 8-5

Bills: 6-8	Bengals: 3-11	Colts: 7-7	Broncos: 9-5
Dolphins: 6-8	Browns: 5-9	Jaguars: 5-7	Chargers: 7-6
Jets: 8-6	Ravens: 7-6	Texans: 6-7	Chiefs: 5-8
Patriots: 8-4	Steelers: 7-7	Titans: 8-5	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 28-35 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 25-20 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 40-36 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 26-37 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 46-64 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-10 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-20 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)