NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2009): 9-6-1 (+$700)

NFL Picks (2009): 100-72-5 (+$7,010)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 30, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (3-7) at San Diego Chargers (7-3)
Line: Chargers by 13.5. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Chargers -14.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Chargers -14.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Nov. 23, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Chinese Restaurants. 2) Ces. 3) Elena from India.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: It’s good to see that LaDainian Tomlinson’s career isn’t over. After struggling throughout the entire season, Tomlinson has rushed for 169 yards and three touchdowns in the past two weeks. Of course, Tomlinson was never finished; it’s his run-blockers that have really improved.

In theory, Tomlinson should have another solid game here. The Chiefs have allowed at least 114 rushing yards in every game since Oct. 4. However, I’m a bit concerned about right tackle Jeromey Clary’s season-ending injury. Clary was a solid run-blocker, and he’ll be replaced by Jon Runyan or some practice-squad member. This may not matter because Kansas City’s defense is so dreadful, but it’s something I’ll be keeping my eye on.

The Chiefs’ secondary can’t tackle. Philip Rivers already had a fun time torching them in Week 7 – he was 18-of-30 for 268 yards and three touchdowns – and I just don’t see how things will be any different this time.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Todd Haley finally realized that getting the ball into the hands of his best players was a lucrative strategy. Jamaal Charles had all but one of Kansas City’s carries last week. The Chargers showed some susceptibility to the run last week, as they allowed Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter to break long gains early on when Chris Simms was under center.

Ultimately, however, Matt Cassel will have to convert third downs, which means that the Chargers will accumulate some sacks. San Diego sacked Cassel five times when they met earlier, and that was before Shawne Merriman reestablished himself.

What would scare me about this game if I were taking San Diego is that Cassel has shown the cunning ability to put together meaningless late drives to put himself in position for a backdoor cover. The Chargers have the secondary to prevent this from happening, but if they’re up by 20 points in the fourth quarter, do you think they’ll be completely focused on stopping Cassel and his mighty 5-yard completions?

RECAP: This is a contest I had trouble with. On one side, the Chiefs just beat the Super Bowl champs, so there could be a bit of a hangover (see the KOing the Champ trend below).

On the other hand, the Chiefs and Chargers usually play close games (San Diego hasn’t beaten Kansas City at home by more than 11 points since 1994). This could also be a letdown alert for the host after knocking off the Broncos and claiming first place in the AFC West.

I think 14 points is way too much for a fierce rivalry like this one. And like I said before, Cassel is more than capable of assembling a painful backdoor drive.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

After three really tough wins, the Chargers get these crappy Chiefs. This is a Let-Down Alert.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Early action on the Chiefs, but the money has shifted toward to the host.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 67% (157,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 23 meetings (Chargers have won the last 4).

KOing the Champ: Teams beating a Super Bowl champion are 6-12 ATS on the road the next week since 2000.

Chiefs are 14-7 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Chiefs are 7-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.

Chargers are 11-8 ATS in November home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -13.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 66 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Chargers 23, Chiefs 13
Chiefs +13.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 43, Chiefs 14

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) at San Francisco 49ers (4-6)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): 49ers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): 49ers -3.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Remember to get your NFL picks in for the picking contest. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, we are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, a few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 12 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (short work week).

And finally, there are 16 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: As I’ve mentioned many times in the past few days, Jack Del Rio and Dirk Koetter completely lost their minds against the Bills, calling for 22 passes in their first 32 offensive plays against Buffalo’s last-ranked rush defense that was missing Marcus Stroud.

Opponents won’t be so fortunate every week. It’s quite possible that Del Rio and Koetter will luck out into giving Maurice Jones-Drew more opportunities. Jones-Drew should have a decent game, though he’s going up against a defense that has yielded 100 rushing yards or more to only three opponents this year.

Fortunately for Del Rio and Koetter, if they forget the running portion of their playbook at the hotel again, their offense will still put up a decent amount of points. The 49ers’ secondary stinks; the team has allowed four 300-yard passing performances in the past six weeks. David Garrard was decent against Buffalo’s stout secondary (21-30, 215, 1 TD, 1 INT), so he should play well here.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: By the second half, the Bills had just five healthy offensive linemen, including a rookie left guard playing left tackle. Despite this, the Jaguars accumulated only two sacks, increasing their season total to 10. What a disgrace.

Alex Smith should be able to convert his third-down situations. With no pass rush in his face, he’ll find Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis downfield to move the sticks. The Jaguars couldn’t even cover a decrepit Terrell Owens without top corner Rashean Mathis, so I don’t see them playing well versus the emerging Crabtree and Davis.

Smith’s third downs should be of the short variety. The Jaguars don’t stink versus the run, but they’re not exactly one of the best against it either. The 49ers, meanwhile, pound the rock extremely well, as you might expect them to. Frank Gore is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season. He’ll set up manageable third downs for Smith.

RECAP: The Jaguars are one of the laziest teams in the league. When they’re expected to win, they fall flat on their face, either losing straight-up or barely squeaking by like they did last week. When they need a victory and they happen to be big underdogs, they play up to their opponent. We’ve seen this when they beat the Jets and Texans, and almost knocked off the Colts this year.

The 49ers may be favored, but they’re 4-6. The public believes the 6-4 Jaguars will win. You know where I’m going with this.

This is a game the Jaguars don’t need. They’re sitting comfortably at 6-4 atop the wildcard standings. They’re playing a non-conference foe across the country. Remember the last time Jacksonville traveled out to the Pacific Coast to battle an NFC team? They lost 41-0 to the crappy Seahawks as 2-point dogs.

The Jaguars have the Texans, Dolphins and Colts after this game. I’ll be completely shocked if they put forth 100-percent effort against a desperate 49ers squad playing for its postseason life.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

This is a strange game for the Jaguars. Traveling across the country to battle a non-conference opponent, they’re not really desperate for a win here. And given that they have Houston, Miami and Indianapolis after this contest, this is a Breather Alert. Meanwhile, the 49ers will be desperate for a victory.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 54% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 16-10 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Jaguars are 4-7 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 63 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Jaguars 10
49ers -3 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; +$0
49ers 20, Jaguars 3

Chicago Bears (4-6) at Minnesota Vikings (9-1)
Line: Vikings by 10.5. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Vikings -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Vikings -10.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week’s edition:

Hi Dear,
Good relationship and soulmate with you.

How are you and your present health condition which is the most essential thing in life,i hope that all is well with you and that of your business.

My Sincere Regards

What an incredibly nice e-mail. This person didn’t even leave me his/her name. They just wished the best for my present health condition and business.

This e-mailer has really motivated me. Whenever I see someone from now on, I’m going to greet them by saying, “Hi dear, good relationship and soulmate with you.”

I think this can catch on. In fact, I’m willing to bet that if the leaders of Israel and Iraq said, “Hi dear, good relationship and soulmate with you” to each other, the war would be over immediately.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Ugh. There are so many things wrong here. First and foremost, the offensive line stinks. It won’t be able to run block for Matt Forte, and it won’t be able to shield Jay Cutler from Jared Allen, Ray Edwards and the Williams Wall.

With the Bears unable to move the chains on the ground, Cutler will have to do all the work himself. Not only will his offensive line fail; his receivers won’t be able to get open either. They could barely separate against the 49ers, so I don’t see them breaking away from any Minnesota defensive backs. Making things worse for Chicago, Antoine Winfield will probably be back in the lineup.

Once the Bears are down – and they will be – Cutler won’t be able to play the same sort of safe football he orchestrated against the Eagles. He’ll force some stuff, most of which will be picked off.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Chicago’s defense is also an abomination. The “stop” unit has given up 781 rushing yards in the past five games, so as you can imagine, Adrian Peterson will have a monstrous game. Think he’s tired of hearing everyone say that Chris Johnson is the best running back in the NFL?

The Bears also stink at putting pressure on the quarterback. They have 21 sacks in 10 games, so their secondary is always under constant stress. Brett Favre is playing on an MVP level right now and should be able to torch the Bears. He simply has too many weapons for Chicago to handle.

RECAP: To win in the NFL, you need to have a franchise quarterback, you need to protect your quarterback, and you need to get to the other quarterback. The Bears may have Jay Cutler, but they can’t do the latter two things on that list. They’re just terrible in the trenches, an area where the Vikings really excel. This one could get ugly.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
These teams hate each other.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Equal action early on, but the public is now pounding the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 78% (189,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Home Team has won 11 of the last 13 meetings.

Bears are 6-1 ATS off back-to-back losses since 2005.

Bears are 20-13 ATS in November since 2001.

Lovie Smith is 5-0 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Opening Line: Vikings -10.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Vikings 30, Bears 10
Vikings -10.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 36, Bears 10

Arizona Cardinals (7-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-6)
Line: Titans by 2. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Cardinals -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Cardinals -1.

Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for the Video of the Week segment. This has been around for a while, but some of you may not have seen it. Even if this is staged, this is the greatest freak-out ever. Note to mothers: Do not cancel your kid’s World of Warcraft account. He could freak out and millions might just make fun of him.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: As I keep saying every week, All Vince Young does is win football games. He’s now 22-12 as a starter. He’s really doing a great job managing the game and refraining from committing costly turnovers. He has also really opened up running lanes for Chris Johnson, who is on pace for nearly 2,000 rushing yards.

The Cardinals are better defensively this season, but they’ve struggled against the run lately. Take away a game against Chicago in which the Bears feel way behind early, and Arizona has surrendered 664 rushing yards in their past four contests. That doesn’t bode well against the Titans, who are steamrolling over everyone.

When Vince Young has to throw, he’ll be protected well once again. Young has only taken one sack in his four starts. You may attribute that to his scrambling ability, but even Kerry Collins was sacked just six times in his six starts. The one constant this season for the Titans besides Johnson has been their prolific offensive line.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The reason there is no line on this game as of Wednesday morning is Kurt Warner’s status. Warner suffered a mild concussion right before halftime of Sunday’s tilt against the Rams. He hasn’t had any concussion symptoms yet, but head coach Ken Whisenhunt said that he won’t announce the starter until Friday.

Let’s assume that Warner gets the nod. Tennessee’s secondary has played exceptionally well during this four-game winning streak. Cortland Finnegan is fully healthy again, while Nick Harper is back in the lineup. Harper was exposed by Andre Johnson on Monday night, so his return may not be a good thing, considering that Rod Hood was playing so well. But then again, the Titans will need all hands on deck to contain Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

Oh, and by the way, keeping Fitzgerald and Boldin from making tons of catches is pretty impossible as long as Warner is completely healthy. If Warner’s in the lineup, the Titans will need to place massive amounts of pressure on him. He has been sacked just twice in the past three games, so that’ll be pretty difficult.

The one thing Tennessee’s defense will be able to do is put the clamps on Chris Wells and Tim Hightower. The Cardinals have run the ball well lately, but the Titans have also gotten better against the rush. They limited the Texans to just 57 yards on the ground Monday night.

RECAP: I like the Titans here. They are playing with tremendous fire right now. They’re a lot better than their 4-6 record. In fact, I have them 12th in my NFL Power Rankings.

Meanwhile, this game doesn’t mean much to the Cardinals. They’re three games ahead of the second-place 49ers in their division. I don’t know what a victory, especially over some 4-6 AFC squad, does for them. As we’ve seen last year, Arizona is more than eager to take a few meaningless games off late in the season.

This will be a multi-unit selection, but I won’t know exactly how many units until a line comes out. Check back later in the week.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

This game means very little to the Cardinals, who host the Vikings next week. The Titans are playing with fire.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action even though a 4-7 team is favored over a 7-4 squad.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 55% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Statfox Trend: Favorites coming off 1-3 point road wins are 19-44 ATS since 2000 (Jeff Fisher 1-1).

Titans are 20-11 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.

Vince Young is 22-11 as a starter (22-11 ATS).

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Cloudy, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Titans 31, Cardinals 20
Titans -2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 20, Cardinals 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 34.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Ravens -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Ravens -3.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’m doing the same.

Bo-Bo’s two-game winning streak is a distant memory. He lost 105-73, dropping to 3-8 on the year. Even worse, Patrick Crayton is back in his lineup!

Here are his starters and their respective point totals:

QB: Mark Sanchez (-1)
RB1: Frank Gore (11)
RB2: Marshawn Lynch (-1)
WR1: Terrell Owens (27)
WR2: Chris Chambers (13)
WR3: Patrick Crayon (7)
TE: Todd Heap (1)
K: David Akers (6)
DEF: Vikings Defense (10)

Despite falling to 3-8, Bo-Bo did some trash-talking: “I have 2 players in negative digits….and you may still lose you c***.”

Apparently not. Sadly, Bo-Bo’s 32-point defeat was one of his better performances this year.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Like Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger suffered a concussion last week. His injury was a bit more serious than Warner’s, but he apparently passed all of his concussion tests on Monday and will begin practicing Wednesday. There could always be a setback, but he’s slated to start right now.

If Roethlisberger is OK, he’ll easily torch a beleaguered Baltimore secondary. The Ravens have allowed at least 220 passing yards to the opposition in five of their past seven games (the exceptions being Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn). It’ll get worse now because they lost corner Fabian Washington for the year. I know Washington really sucked, and that rookie Lardarius Webb will probably do a better job, but it’s the loss of depth that really hurts.

The Ravens are pretty stout against the run, giving up more than 100 rushing yards only three times this year (twice to the Bengals, once to Adrian Peterson). I doubt Rashard Mendenhall will have a major impact, but the Steelers have proven that they can win without a ground game.

Something the Ravens absolutely need to do is generate pressure on Roethlisberger. They have just 21 sacks on the year, but there is some hope with Steelers left guard Chris Kemoeatu being out of the lineup.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Baltimore Sun beat writer Mike Preston made a good observation Tuesday, where he speculated that Joe Flacco’s ankle could be affecting him. Flacco hasn’t thrown a touchdown in three games, so there is some concern that he’s floating some of his passes. However, Flacco was pretty sharp against the Colts, going 23-of-35 for 256 yards and an interception where he misread a linebacker dropping into coverage.

The Steelers can be thrown on without Troy Polamalu. Matt Cassel compiled 248 yards and two touchdowns last week, including a 61-yard connection to Chris Chambers in overtime. With great protection from his offensive tackles, I think Flacco rebounds and guides his team into the end zone.

Like Pittsburgh, Baltimore will struggle to run the ball. The Steelers have the top rush defense in the league. Ray Rice won’t find much room on the ground, but he’ll continue to be a pass-catching factor out of the backfield whom Pittsburgh will have problems with (as everyone has this year).

RECAP: The Steelers swept this three-game series last year, They own the Ravens. Flacco will eventually overcome Pittsburgh and beat them, but if Roethlisberger is starting Sunday night, I don’t think Baltimore will knock off its arch nemesis this time.

As long as Roethlisberger is projected to start, I’m taking the Steelers. The amount of units will be TBA until a spread is posted.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Ben Roethlisberger is out for this game. This was the right move. However, there’s no line on this game right now.

I can’t imagine liking the Ravens; the spread will be inflated, and the Steelers historically have played well with their backups (Charlie Batch in 2005 and 2007, Byron Leftwich in 2008) when Roethlisberger has missed a game. Pittsburgh’s a great team and everyone steps up.

I’ll give you my final unit verdict on Sunday morning.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Wow. This is worse than I thought it would be. The Steelers are still a very good team, even without Ben Roethlisberger. Unless Dennis Dixon turns it over like crazy, I like Pittsburgh’s chances here.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

The Steelers own the Ravens. With Ben Roethlisberger out, there’s a lot of pressure on Baltimore to win. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, knows it’ll have to bring 110 percent to win this game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 53% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Home Team has won 12 of the last 14 meetings (Steelers won last 3).

Ben Roethlisberger is 66-26 as a starter (51-40 ATS).

Ben Roethlisberger is 20-12 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Ben Roethlisberger is 10-4 ATS as a road dog.

Ben Roethlisberger is 13-6 ATS as an underdog.

Ravens are 25-15 ATS in November.

Ravens are 9-6 ATS as an underdog under John Harbaugh.

Ravens are 14-5 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Ravens are 11-22 ATS after a home game since 2005.

Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Clear, 48 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Ravens 17
Steelers +7.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 34 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 20, Steelers 17

New England Patriots (7-3) at New Orleans Saints (10-0)
Line: Saints by 1.5. Total: 57.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Saints -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Saints -3.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Saints.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see the Patriots and Saints battle in what should be a thrilling game. Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to New England, the Queen City! Tonight, the idiot Patriots take on the New Orleans Hornets. Guys, I hate the Patriots with a passion because they beat my Eagles in the Super Bowl. What can be done to poison Bill Belichick and Tom Brady?

Emmitt: Kevin Rogers, you need to get over yourselves. As a member of the Dallas Cowboy, I never lossed in the Super Bowl, but if I have had lossed in the Super Bowls, I would not hold a gr… uhh.. gr… uhh.. the thing that have you mad at somebody else. I think it is called a gorge.

Reilly: I think you mean “grudge,” Emmitt. And I’m not holding the grudge. I just want everyone on the Patriots to die. Coach, how can this be accomplished?

Herm: I know!

Reilly: Ah forget you. Coach, no offense, but you are a moron who doesn’t know anything. If I want the Patriots poisoned, I’m going to have to do it myself.

Emmitt: Now Kevin Gordon, I think it is time that I do stand up for the corch. Corch Herm Edward may not be the smartest men in the planet, but he do have opinion that have a li-bit value if you would just listen once in a moon that’s blue.

Reilly: Listen to Herm? Bah! Well, Emmitt, you’re one of my idols, so I guess I should take your advice. OK Coach, how would you poison the Patriots?

Herm: Here’s what you do now! Here’s what you do! Here’s the plan! Look at the plan! Look at it! Here’s step one! Here’s the first step! Here’s what you need to do first! Here it is! Come on now, look at it! Look at the plan! Watch it! Watch it now!

Reilly: Coach, you’re killing me. Just get to it please so I can end my pain and suffering.

Herm: OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! I’ll get to it! I’ll get it to it right now! Here’s what you do! You want to poison the Patriots? Here’s what you do! Are you watching me? You better be watching me! Because I know the answer! I know it now! I know it! Here it is! Here’s step one! OK! Uhh… umm…

Reilly: I knew it! You got nothin, as always. As long as I’m in charge, you’re never speaking again. And with that in mind, we’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It’s no secret that the Saints defense has struggled recently. They’ve allowed their last five opponents to gain at least 119 rushing yards. They’ve also had some problems containing the pass. Matt Ryan and Marc Bulger recently had their way with New Orleans’ secondary.

Things will change starting Monday night. Injuries have been the source of New Orleans’ problems. Stud defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis missed four weeks. Top corner Jabari Greer was out the past two games. Interception-hungry safety Darren Sharper also missed some action. All three guys will be back in the lineup.

It’ll be difficult to stymie the Patriots’ vaunted offense completely, but with all of their star defensive players back, I think the Saints can force New England into more punts than analysts are projecting. Greer will be stuck on Moss, which is a better matchup than most people realize. Containing Wes Welker will be a problem, but Sharper is one of the smartest safeties in the league. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he picked off Tom Brady once.

New England won’t be able to run the ball. I listed those negative stats the Saints had against opposing ground attacks. All of that came with Ellis out of the lineup. Before Ellis got hurt, New Orleans had allowed only one 100-yard rushing performance in five contests.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: While I think the Saints’ defense will play pretty well, I can’t say the same thing about New England’s stop unit. The Patriots have two problems: getting to the quarterback and containing the run.

In an attempt to sound like Jon Gruden, if Drew Brees has time in the pocket, he’ll kill you. If you try to blitz Brees, he’ll murder you even quicker. New England has just 18 sacks on the year. I really don’t know how they’re going to put any pressure on Brees. After all, there’s a reason Bill Belichick didn’t want to punt the ball away to Peyton Manning.

The Saints are so lethal on offense because in addition to having Brees and all of his weapons, they can control the clock with their prolific running game. That’s terrible news for the Patriots; on only four occasions this season have they permitted less than 100 rushing yards to an opponent.

One last wrinkle: Reggie Bush will be back after missing the Tampa Bay contest. He’s not a huge factor on offense, but he’ll play a large role in the return game.

RECAP: Most TV analysts think the Patriots will win. The public is backing New England as well. The reason for this is that New Orleans’ defense has struggled lately. But as I explained earlier, that won’t be the case Monday night because all of the star players will be back in the lineup.

I like the Saints here. First of all, I think they’re the better team with the superior defense. But more importantly, this is a huge statement game for them. As mentioned, most people in the media are picking the Patriots to pull the upset. This has to infuriate a Saints squad that feels it’s not getting any respect. This will be their chance to prove to the league that they’re legit.

It’ll be downright chaotic in the Superdome on Monday night. I know Brady, Belichick, Moss and Welker have seen it all, but many of their young players haven’t.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

Huge statement game for the Saints. I really don’t see why this contest matters much to the Patriots; they’re in control of their division, but they aren’t going to catch the Colts.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
People think the Patriots will upset the Saints.

Percentage of money on New England: 60% (247,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 24-12 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 106-31 as a starter (82-53 ATS).

Tom Brady is 9-2 ATS in domes.

Tom Brady is 12-6 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Saints are 26-40 ATS at home since 2001 (9-4 since 2008).

Saints are 19-29 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.

Drew Brees is 21-11 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 55.5.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Patriots 27
Saints -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 57 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 38, Patriots 17

Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games
Packers at Lions, Raiders at Cowboys, Giants at Broncos, Buccaneers at Falcons, Dolphins at Bills, Browns at Bengals, Seahawks at Rams, Panthers at Jets, Redskins at Eagles, Colts at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Dog: Panthers +155 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Psychological Edge Parlay: Panthers +3, Redskins +9, Chiefs +14, 49ers -3, Titans -3, Saints -1.5 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)