Week 9 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 3, 4:55 p.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 9 - Early Games
Jets at Bills, Lions at Bears, Jaguars at Bengals, Ravens at Browns, Buccaneers at Chiefs, Texans at Vikings, Packers at Titans, Cardinals at Rams

NFL Picks Week 9 - Late Games
Dolphins at Broncos, Falcons at Raiders, Cowboys at Giants, Eagles at Seahawks, Patriots at Colts, Steelers at Redskins

BYE: Panthers, Saints, Chargers, 49ers


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I'll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it'll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It'll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. New England Patriots - New England's massive victory over Denver makes them extremely overrated. People will see 34-0 and say, "Wow, New England is fine with Matt Cassel!" No they're not. Jay Cutler was injured on the first play of the game. Cassel still can't throw longer than 20 yards and the defense is slow and old.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Including the preseason, David Garrard hasn't totally sucked only twice this year. Once was against the Texans. The other time was last week against Denver. What do those teams have in common? They both have horrible defenses. Meanwhile, Jacksonville surrendered 100 yards to Michael Pittman two weeks ago. Michael freaking Pittman! What happened to this defense?

3. San Diego Chargers - Any time any analyst on ESPN speaks of the Chargers, they say something like, "They'll be OK. They'll win games." Why will they be OK? Their defense absolutely sucks because Shawne Merriman is hurt and Jamal Williams is over the hill. And though he had a nice game against the Saints, LaDainian Tomlinson is hurt and far from 100 percent.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Denver Broncos - The opposite of the Patriots 34-0 effect. People are down on the Broncos, who are still a very talented team. I'm still convinced they would have won if Jay Cutler didn't get hurt on the first play of the game. Denver is very underrated going forward, as long as Cutler is OK.

2. San Francisco 49ers - I think the 49ers are bad, but they're not terrible. People only remember the last thing they see, and they'll likely focus on an ugly loss to Seattle. However, San Francisco stuck with the Giants, Eagles and Patriots before blowing a cover in each of those games. The 49ers are switching to Shaun Hill, who will actually take care of the football, unlike J.T. O'Sullivan.

3. Oakland Raiders - It may seem dumb to put the Raiders on this list after their ugly loss to the Ravens. But that's the only thing the public is thinking of when betting against them this week. Oakland beat the Jets, and nearly upset San Diego and Buffalo (on the road).





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Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Denver Broncos - The opposite of the Patriots 34-0 effect. People are down on the Broncos, who are still a very talented team. I'm still convinced they would have won if Jay Cutler didn't get hurt on the first play of the game. Denver is very underrated going forward, as long as Cutler is OK.

2. San Francisco 49ers - I think the 49ers are bad, but they're not terrible. People only remember the last thing they see, and they'll likely focus on an ugly loss to Seattle. However, San Francisco stuck with the Giants, Eagles and Patriots before blowing a cover in each of those games. The 49ers are switching to Shaun Hill, who will actually take care of the football, unlike J.T. O'Sullivan.

3. Oakland Raiders - It may seem dumb to put the Raiders on this list after their ugly loss to the Ravens. But that's the only thing the public is thinking of when betting against them this week. Oakland beat the Jets, and nearly upset San Diego and Buffalo (on the road).

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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 11-7	Bears: 11-5	Bucs: 7-12	49ers: 12-8
Eagles: 10-8	Lions: 9-7	Falcons: 10-7	Cardinals: 8-10
Giants: 9-8	Packers: 8-9	Panthers: 9-8	Rams: 13-8
Redskins: 7-10	Vikings: 9-8	Saints: 11-5	Seahawks: 11-6
Bills: 10-9	Bengals: 13-7	Colts: 5-12	Broncos: 9-8
Dolphins: 7-10	Browns: 8-9	Jaguars: 8-9	Chargers: 9-8
Jets: 6-11	Ravens: 10-7	Texans: 3-14	Chiefs: 11-9
Patriots: 9-9	Steelers: 8-10	Titans: 11-7	Raiders: 11-7
Divisional: 54-43 (2011-20: 448-442)	2x Game Edge: 57-62 (2011-20: 279-271)	2x Motivation Edge: 47-48 (2011-20: 394-318)	2x Spread Edge: 48-40 (2011-20: 105-89)
2x Vegas Edge: 35-42 (2011-20: 346-357)	2x Trend Edge: 16-18 (2011-20: 270-241)	Double Edge: 23-27 (2011-20: 149-128)	Triple Edge: 4-10 (2011-20: 27-22)