Week 10 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 9, 4:45 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

Carolina Panthers (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-6)
Line: Panthers by 9.5. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Panthers -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Panthers -9.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Injuries: Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR). Raiders: OUT: FB Justin Griffith (IR), WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR).

After a poor week, I like to step back and look what I did wrong or learn something new. After my Week 7 debacle, I didn’t really do that because I felt as though I was cheated on three brutal backdoor covers. However, I had no excuses for my Week 9 performance. One thing I learned is that teams in must-win situations don’t necessarily cover if they really suck (Colts and Jaguars) or if they’re playing a far inferior opponent in a game that looks really easy (just the Jaguars).

With the help of e-mailer Russ, I’ve added a new trend to this Web site that has hit at a 72.7-percent clip since 2002. Now, when I look at a trend, it has to make sense logically. This one definitely does. Teams that get shut out at home tend to bounce back extremely well. The thought process is that because players care about money and respect more than anything, they try as hard as possible to rebound off a home shutout. The coaching staff, meanwhile, game plans its hardest to save their job and to quell the fury of an angry owner.

For a breakdown of this new trend, check out the following page in the NFL Betting Trends section.

OK, so you know where I’m going with this. Does Oakland stand a chance against Carolina? Not according to the matchups. Let’s go over them quickly because they’re so lop-sided:

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Raiders can’t do anything right defensively. They’re 22nd against the run and 23rd versus the pass. Kalimba Edwards leads the team in sacks with five. Now that’s just sad.

Carolina should be able to do whatever it wants to Oakland’s stop unit. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will eclipse 200 yards, setting up play-action opportunities for Jake Delhomme. If anyone can cover Steve Smith, it’s Nnamdi Asomugha, but Smith is just way too dynamic to stop.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Panthers have an average, run-in-the-mill rush defense, currently ranked 15th in the NFL, which is good news for Justin Fargas. Unfortunately, Fargas couldn’t do anything against Atlanta’s unit, which is 26th in that department.

JaMarcus Russell had problems converting third downs versus the Falcons, and should have an even tougher time doing so against the Panthers, who are fifth in pass defense. Julius Peppers and Charles Johnson will easily sprint by Oakland’s joke of an offensive line.

RECAP: OK, I know Carolina is a billion times better than the Raiders. But the better squad doesn’t always cover. Look at last week’s Buccaneers-Chiefs game for proof. Picking NFL games is all about finding spots.

As mentioned above and below (psychology section), the Raiders will be playing for pride. This is their Super Bowl. They’re the laughing stock of the league. Everyone is ranking them dead last in their NFL Power Rankings. All the pundits are making fun of them. They need to prove everyone wrong.

Furthermore, Al Davis has vacated his feeding ground Tuesday evening and announced that he will cut DeAngelo Hall, Javon Walker and Tommy Kelly on Wednesday. If you’re a player on the Raiders, you have to be concerned that your job is in jeopardy.

Want more reasons to take the Raiders? Fine. Fading the public is lucrative; casual bettors are laying the 9.5 like they know the score of the game (that one’s for you, Russ). And I’ll continue to maintain that the Raiders aren’t absolutely horrible. Yes, I saw that they were debacled by the Falcons and Ravens, but remember, two weeks ago they beat the Jets at home. They also hung with the Chargers and Bills before that. With the exception of San Diego and Kansas City, every team Oakland has played thus far is 4-4 or better, so a tough schedule has made the Raiders look worse than they really are.

One last thing. You may notice below that John Fox has an amazing record on the West Coast. Well, only one of his five spread victories was by more than 10 points. He won the others by single digits, and covered because he was an underdog or a short favorite.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

How embarrassed are the Raiders? Three first downs? Zero points? They’ll be playing for major respect in this game. The Panthers, on the other hand, don’t really need a win here and have to be looking at this contest as a sure victory.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

The only bettors taking Raiders are people who sniff glue for a living. Almost everyone is pounding Carolina.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 86% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Home Shutout: Teams coming off a home shutout are 16-6 ATS the following week since 2002.

Jake Delhomme is 26-14 ATS on the road.

Jake Delhomme is 17-9 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Panthers are 7-9 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

John Fox is 5-2 ATS on the West Coast.

Raiders are 9-25 ATS at home the previous 34 instances.

Opening Line: Panthers -9.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Possible showers, 62 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Raiders 20
Raiders +9.5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 37.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Panthers 17, Raiders 6

Indianapolis Colts (4-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Line: Steelers by 4. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Steelers -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Steelers -6 (Roethlisberger) or Steelers -3 (Leftwich).
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Injuries: Colts: OUT: RB Mike Hart (IR), OT Tony Ugoh, G Ryan Lilja, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, CB Marlin Jackson (IR), KR T.J. Rushing (IR). Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), G Kendall Simmons (IR), P Daniel Sepulveda (IR), LS Greg Warren (IR). DOUBTFUL: RB Willie Parker*, TE Heath Miller*.

This is not the final game on the slate, but because no line was posted until late, I couldn’t make a pick right away. So, I gave you the Week 10 NFL Look-Alike Thread, featuring Fat Albert, Robin Williams and Hassle the Hoff.

Sorry this was posted late, but without a spread, there was really no point in writing anything. Now that we know the line, let’s get into the game.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Colts stink. Their offense is iffy, but their defense is a complete abomination. Even with Bob Sanders back in the lineup, they couldn’t contain BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Matt Cassel. It was a pathetic performance for the ages. Sure, New England scored 15 points, but they were so efficient on third downs that they were able to hold on to the ball for what seemed like hours.

Indianapolis can’t stop the run. Even if Sanders at safety, it doesn’t matter. Pittsburgh obviously loves running the ball, and Mewelde Moore will steamroll through the Colts’ front seven, opening up play-action opportunities for Ben Roethlisberger.

Roethlisberger practiced Friday, so it looks like he will play. His offensive line has been awful this year, but Indianapolis’ lackluster pass rush has a mere 10 sacks this year.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: As mentioned, the Colts just aren’t clicking on offense. They looked fine against the Patriots, but that was a must-win, and New England’s secondary is even worse than Indianapolis’ right now.

Joseph Addai has really struggled this year, gaining just 3.1 yards per carry. That spells trouble against the Steelers, who are third versus the run.

With an even less effective ground game than usual, play-action won’t be much of an option for Peyton Manning. Manning will need all the help he can get; Pittsburgh is first versus the pass because they put so much pressure on opposing passers. I expect Manning to struggle mightily once again versus a strong 3-4 defense.

RECAP: The Colts are not a good team by any means. They’re 4-4, but they had lucky wins against Minnesota, Houston and New England, and could easily be 1-7 right now.

I don’t like Manning against a tough 3-4 defense. And Manning’s predecessors haven’t had much luck either; the last time Indianapolis won in Pittsburgh was in the 1970s.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
The Colts just won a game they had to have. This contest means more to them, but the Steelers are just one up in their division.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 56% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Monday Might: Teams coming off a MNF win of 17+ points are 33-16 ATS since 1999.

Colts are 29-21 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.

Ben Roethlisberger is 50-19 as a starter (41-28 ATS).

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: Possible showers, 39 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 28, Colts 20
Steelers -4.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 39 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Colts 24, Steelers 20

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at San Diego Chargers (3-5)
Line: Chargers by 15. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Chargers -11.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Chargers -11.

Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle (IR), QB Damon Huard (IR), RB Kolby Smith (IR). Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR).

It’s time for the Bo-Bo Fantasy Update! If you don’t know what this is, check out the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Ever.

Poor Bo-Bo… our favorite fantasy owner just set a personal record for points this week, but it wasn’t enough, as he lost, 90-85. Bo-Bo had help from Gus Frerotte (20 points), Tim Hightower (18) and Derrick Ward (14). Ironically, Bo-Bo’s “good” players – Terrell Owens, Hines Ward and Laveranues Coles – did nothing. Bo-Bo is now in last place at 2-7. But Bo-Bo doesn’t care! He’s having sex with 500,000 girls at once and currently buying up property in Atlantis.

Speaking of last place, the Chiefs are pathetic. They jump out to an inexplicable 24-3 lead against the Buccaneers last week, only to relinquish it and lose in overtime. How you let Jeff Garcia and a lackluster receiving corps come back from 21 on you is beyond me.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Lost in Kansas City’s two near-victories is the unceremonious improvement of Tyler Thigpen. Thigpen, who couldn’t even throw longer than 10 yards in an ugly loss to Atlanta, prompting me to call him the worst quarterback in the NFL, has somehow quickly evolved. The past two weeks, Thigpen has a completion percentage of 63.9, a YPA greater than seven, and three touchdowns to no interceptions or fumbles.

Look for Thigpen to keep improving. The Chargers have an inconsistent pass rush and a secondary ranked just 18th against the pass. You have to like both Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez in this matchup.

The Chiefs should also be able to run on San Diego’s 21st-ranked rush defense. The Chargers’ defensive line just isn’t holding up. Jamaal Charles totaled 106 rushing yards on just 18 carries against Tampa Bay’s impressive stop unit. Charles’ performance is completely legit; he didn’t break any really long gains, so he was a consistent force all afternoon.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Like the Chiefs, San Diego should be able to light up the scoreboard early and often.

Kansas City’s defense is just complete garbage. For proof, see last week’s performance, as Jeff Garcia went 31-of-43 for 339 yards and a touchdown, sparking the Buccaneers to a gargantuan comeback.

The Chiefs are 32nd against the run and 24th versus the pass. The latter is actually very impressive, considering they have just four sacks on the year. Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers and Antonio Gates are all poised to have huge performances.

RECAP: If the Chiefs can keep playing like they have the past two weeks, this contest could go down to the wire.

This is a must-win for San Diego, but as mentioned in the Carolina-Oakland lead, it doesn’t really matter if the team stinks. The Chargers are overrated, thanks to numerous preseason injuries, a banged-up, ineffective defense and a clueless coach. I can’t recommend laying this many points with such a mediocre and inconsistent squad.

And besides, it’s not like the Chiefs are going to lay down and let the Chargers beat them. Kansas City hates San Diego. And Herm Edwards has never failed to cover when his team has been a double-digit underdog.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
The Chargers need a victory here to keep up with the Broncos, but I don’t think they view the Chiefs as much of a threat.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

A publicly backed underdog. Uh oh.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 67% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Home Team has won 15 of the last 20 meetings.

Chiefs are 8-4 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Chiefs are 5-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Herm Edwards.

Chargers are 10-4 ATS in November home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -14.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Sunny, 78 degrees. Mild wind, 19 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 22
Chiefs +15 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 47.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$50
Chargers 20, Chiefs 19

New York Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Giants -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Giants -3.

Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), WR David Tyree, DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR), K Lawrence Tynes. Eagles: OUT: G Shawn Andrews, CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR).

In my NFL Power Rankings, I discussed a weird Plaxico Burress quote, where the star wideout was proud of his son for showing up to class and detention late, and talking back to his teachers. Following this interview on FOX, Terry Bradshaw – it was tough to tell if he was sober or not – declared the following, referring to Burress: “Football’s not going to last forever. Your attitude will never make it in the business world.”

Poor Burress! Once his football career is over, he won’t be able to find a job! He’ll have to apply to McDonald’s and 7-11, hoping someone will say yes. But chances are, he’ll have to live in a shack and starve to death. Oh, the horror!

At any rate, is there any doubt that this is the weirdest point spread of the year? Favoring the Eagles by three at home is saying that both teams are equal. They’re not. While the Giants and Eagles are laden with talented players, there is one glaring difference between the two squads, neither of which has to do with the matchups.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Donovan McNabb struggled early in last week’s game against the Seahawks. He was guilty of staring down Kevin Curtis in double coverage when he had DeSean Jackson one-on-one versus an inferior corner. McNabb finally fixed this problem in the second quarter.

Things will only get tougher against New York. The Giants put tons of pressure on the quarterback, and I’m not sure Philadelphia’s old offensive tackles can hold up.

The Eagles will need to utilize screens to Brian Westbrook and short routes to Jackson to neutralize New York’s devastating pass rush. Whether Andy Reid figures this out in time remains to be seen. Philadelphia has the weapons to move the chains; it’s the protection I would be worried about.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Eagles also love to bring the heat, but the Giants actually have an excellent offensive front. New York has surrendered only 10 sacks on the year, so Eli Manning should have a clean pocket to work out of for most of the game.

Manning will need the time to throw; despite the fact that he’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry, Brandon Jacobs may have some difficulty running on Philadelphia’s seventh-ranked rush defense. Manning will have to move the markers aerially all evening.

Like McNabb, Manning has plenty of options to work with. We all know about Plaxico Burress, who makes a living killing the Eagles every year. Second-year Steve Smith has emerged and actually leads the team in receptions. Amani Toomer is always reliable for a clutch catch. Domenik Hixon and Kevin Boss are also solid options, while Derrick Ward has become a great option of the backfield.

RECAP: So, what’s the fundamental difference between New York and Philadelphia? The ability to win in the clutch. Check out these figures for proof:

Since the 2006 playoffs, the Eagles are 1-7 in games decided by four points or less. The Giants, on the other hand, are 6-2 in those situations in the same time span, including 3-0 in last year’s unbelievable postseason run.

So, what does this have to do anything? When it comes down to crunch time, Philadelphia chokes and New York thrives. Think back to Super Bowl XXXIX. The Eagles looked clueless in the fourth quarter, taking their time despite being down two scores. McNabb puked on the field multiple times. McNabb and Reid have never thrived in big moments. And because this figures to be a close game, it’s safe to say the Eagles will come up small yet again.

Furthermore, Steve Spagnuolo coached the Eagles for years. If you’ve been following my picks, you know that going with a coach playing his former team usually pays dividends. They just know the personnel and how to game plan for their old squad.

The only reason I put one unit on this game is because of the shady spread. Why does Vegas want so much action on the Giants? It just makes no sense to me.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

Big game for two huge rivals.

Steve Spagnuolo coached the Eagles from 1999 to 2006.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

What a shady line. Favoring the Eagles -3, the books are telling us these two teams are exactly equal.

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (145,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Giants have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Giants are 17-5 ATS on the road since 2006.

Eagles are 50-32 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 22-14 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Clear, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Giants 27, Eagles 24
Giants +3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 42.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Giants 36, Eagles 31

San Francisco 49ers (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
Line: Cardinals by 9.5. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Cardinals -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Cardinals -13.

Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Injuries: 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), FB Zak Keasey (IR), OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR). Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR).

If I didn’t make it clear in my Week 8 NFL Picks page, my Week 8 NFL Review, or anything I’ve written since then, YOU DON’T FIRE A COACH SIX DAYS BEFORE A GAME! Lucky Seattle enjoyed a victory because the 49ers were so discombubulated. You can’t really blame the 49ers for firing Nolan; the problem was that they leaked this information before they were actually going to can Nolan. This prompted the proud former head coach to approach the owner and demand to be let go immediately.

Per Chris Mortensen’s reports, the owner’s son, Jed York, actually cried and begged Nolan to stay. Nolan declined, but consoled Jed and offered him five free tickets to Super Fun Time. Jed immediately stopped crying and began scheduling his next birthday party. Pizza! Skee ball! Arcades! Who needs Mike Nolan!?

I expect a much better effort out of the 49ers on Monday, now that Mike Singletary has had a couple of weeks to get things organized. Will that be enough for San Francisco to beat, or at least cover against Arizona?

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: If anything, the 49ers will be more efficient. Shaun Hill is slated to make the start in favor of J.T. O’Sullivan. It’s about time. While O’Sullivan has the stronger arm, he has absolutely no awareness in terms of reading defensive schemes or avoiding the pass rush. O’Sullivan is horribly turnover-prone; in eight games, he has 11 interceptions and 11 fumbles. That’s absolutely horrible. You can’t win with that sort of negative production.

Hill is a much safer quarterback. Much like Matt Cassel, his throws will be on the money and he won’t give the ball up, but he’ll offer no downfield threat.

If the 49ers had a normal offensive coordinator, I would say that they would attempt to establish Frank Gore early and often. But we know that’s not going to happen. Mike Martz is a colossal idiot, as he will abandon the run early and put Hill in way too many unfavorable passing situations. The Cardinals have 21 sacks on the year, so they’ll get to Hill on multiple occasions.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The rich get richer. Arizona, boasting one of the league’s top offenses, thanks to MVP candidate Kurt Warner and his outstanding receiving corps, now actually have a running game – something they’ve lacked all year.

Tim Hightower, making his first start nine weeks too late, eclipsed the 100-yard barrier against the Rams. Any running back can trample St. Louis’ pathetic defense, but Hightower looked infinitely superior to the decrepit Edgerrin James.

The 49ers are mediocre against the run and the pass (14th and 16th, respectively), and possess a lackluster pass rush (14 sacks), so don’t expect them to contain the Cardinals. The Panthers have an elite defense, and they couldn’t even do that.

RECAP: The Cardinals are obviously the better team and will win this game, but can they cover? I wouldn’t bet on it. In fact, I like the 49ers.

This game means nothing to Arizona. The team is three games ahead of everyone in the NFC West. They could forfeit every game in November and still be leading the crappiest division in football come December.

Meanwhile, the 49ers will be playing for respect. Everyone remembers how debacled they were against the Seahawks in Week 8. They’re going to play hard for Singletary.

From a Vegas standpoint, this line opened at 10 and dropped to 9.5, despite all the action on Arizona. Why do the books want even more action on the host?

MONDAY MORNING PICK CHANGE: As I wrote last week, I have a tendency to do poorly on Monday night if I have a horrific Sunday. With that in mind, I’m changing this pick to Arizona.

But what about public action!? About 80 percent of the money is on the host, yet the line has dropped from -10 to -9.5! This is true, but Vegas took it up the rear end yesterday, thanks to a plethora of shady lines it posted, including Eagles -3, Chargers -15, Vikings -2.5 and Patriots -3.5, which were clearly not designed to induce equal betting action.

I had the idea in the back of my head that with Black Friday coming up and four consecutive winning weeks in their pocket, that Vegas would let the public claim some cash this week. If people have no money around Christmas time, they won’t be betting. By giving back, Vegas could be setting casual bettors up for a bigger fall later in the year.

For a more detailed breakdown on Vegas’ NFL Betting Action breakdown, click the link.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

The Cardinals have a massive lead on everyone in the NFC West. They could forfeit all of their November games, and they still could make the Doggone Playoff. I can’t see them bringing 100 percent to this contest. The 49ers, meanwhile, will play inspired football for Mike Singletary.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Everyone remembers San Francisco’s horrible performance against the Seahawks, which would explain this betting action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 84% (226,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cardinals have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Cardinals are 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) at home under Ken Whisenhunt.

Cardinals are 0-7 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 7 instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -10.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cardinals 34, 49ers 24
Cardinals -9.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 47.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Cardinals 29, 49ers 24

Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games
Broncos at Browns, Jaguars at Lions, Ravens at Texans, Seahawks at Dolphins, Titans at Bears, Saints at Falcons, Packers at Vikings, Rams at Jets, Bills at Patriots

Printable version of Week 10 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Dolphins -2, Jaguars -0.5 (3 Units) — No action; $0

Live Dog: Bills +160 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Live Dog: Packers +120 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Live Dog: Giants +130 (2 Units) — Correct; +$260

Pyschology Parlay: Texans -1, Rams +9, Raiders +9.5, Giants +3, 49ers +9.5 (.5 Units to win 12.1) — Incorrect; -$50

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

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2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2024 NFL Draft Second-Day Values: Offense

NBA Picks Against the Spread

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

2024 NFL Mock Draft

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