NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 2, 2019



NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 5-1 (+$790)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2019): 5-1 (+$790)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)
Line: Redskins by 2.5.

Thursday, Aug. 15, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

I don't love this game because we don't have information on whether or not Bengals head coach Zac Taylor wants to win meaningless games. However, Washington is worth a small wager because Jay Gruden is 4-1 in Week 2 exhibition games, and the Redskins will be using Dwayne Haskins extensively to see if he can start early in the season. Haskins is better than any of the backup quarterbacks the Bengals have, which gives Washington an edge.

UPDATE: This spread has mysteriously dropped to -2.5 in all books, and -105 juice is available at Bookmaker, which is worth locking in.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Zac Taylor is 0-1 in preseason games.
  • Zac Taylor is 0-0 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Jay Gruden is 12-9 in preseason games.
  • Jay Gruden is 4-1 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Bengals 13
    Redskins -2.5 -105 (1 Unit) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$105






    Green Bay Packers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)
    Line: Ravens by 3.5.

    Thursday, Aug. 15, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I wish we had a history of Matt LaFleur in the preseason, but all we know is that the new Packer head coach is 1-0 right now. That makes handicapping this game a bit difficult, but the Ravens are still worth selecting for a couple of units. John Harbaugh hasn't lost a preseason game since 2015, and he's 8-3 in Week 2 contests. I don't see Aaron Rodgers playing much, if at all, so that means Baltimore's defense will get to feast on DeShone Kizer.

    UPDATE: Here's another spread that has fallen. It's now -3.5 across the board, with +100 being available at 5Dimes.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Matt LaFleur is 1-0 in preseason games.
  • Matt LaFleur is 0-0 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • John Harbaugh is 34-12 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-3 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Packers 10
    Ravens -3.5 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$200







    Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)
    Line: Buccaneers by 3.5.

    Friday, Aug. 16, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I don't understand why the Dolphins are underdogs of more than three points. We don't know if Brian Flores wants to win in the preseason, but he prevailed last week. Also, regardless of which quarterback starts for the Dolphins, they'll have a great backup going in Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Rosen. The Buccaneers' reserve signal-caller is Blaine Gabbert, while Bruce Arians is 1-4 in Week 2 preseason games.

    UPDATE: This line has moved down to +3 (-120) or +2.5 (+100) in most books, but it's still at +3 (-110) at BetUS. I'd get that before it disappears.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Brian Flores is 1-0 in preseason games.
  • Brian Flores is 0-0 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Bruce Arians is 9-13 in preseason games.
  • Bruce Arians is 1-4 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Buccaneers 17
    Dolphins +3 (1 Unit) - BetUS -- Correct; +$100







    Detroit Lions (0-1) at Houston Texans (1-0)
    Line: Texans by 4.5.

    Saturday, Aug. 17, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Matt Patricia doesn't seem to care about winning in the preseason, owning a 1-4 record thus far. That's not a great sample size, but there are other things in Houston's favor. For example, Bill O'Brien is 4-1 in Week 2 preseason games. Also, the Lions have nothing as far as backup quarterbacks are concerned. With Tom Savage injured, it'll be David Fales and Josh Johnson, who was just signed a few days ago.

    UPDATE: This spread is -4.5 in most books, but paying -110 juice when not needed is not ideal. Thus, I looked toward the -5 (-105) available at Bookmaker, but found an even better deal with the -5.5 (+100) available at 5Dimes. Five is a very unlikely result, so I'm going to avoid paying juice in this scenario.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Matt Patricia is 1-4 in preseason games.
  • Matt Patricia is 0-1 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Bill O'Brien is 12-8 in preseason games.
  • Bill O'Brien is 4-1 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Lions 10
    Texans -5.5 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$200







    Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0)
    Line: Vikings by 3.

    Sunday, Aug. 18, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Mike Zimmer strikes again! I have no clue why Zimmer was an underdog last week. The sportsbooks have finally caught on, making him -4 over Pete Carroll, who is 23-14 in exhibition contests. However, Carroll is 4-5 in Week 2 preseason games. Also, the Vikings have better backup quarterbacks than the Seahawks. Kyle Sloter is a terrific reserve, while Geno Smith stinks. Paxton Lynch played well last week, but we'll see if that continues.

    UPDATE: This line opened at -4, but it has dropped down to -3 for some reason. I don't know why this happened, but I'll take it. I'm going to bet the -3 now, which is available at every sportsbook.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Pete Carroll is 23-14 in preseason games.
  • Pete Carroll is 4-5 in Preseason Week 2 games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 18-4 in preseason games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 3-2 in Preseason Week 2 games.


    Preseason Week 2 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Seahawks 17
    Vikings -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100




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    NFL Picks - Nov. 29


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,935)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-2 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 3-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 4-6 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 5-5 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 4-6 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 4-5 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 7-3 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 6-4 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 2-8 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 6-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 10-1 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 3-7 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 4-4 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 5-5 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 3-7 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 5-5 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 5-5 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 5-3 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 5-5 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 4-6 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 9-1 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 6-3 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-6 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 3-5 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 6-4 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 3-6 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 7-3 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 6-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 3-7 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 4-6 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 6-4 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 5-5 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 24-25 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 37-41 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 20-18 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 30-20 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 16-14 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 13-13 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 4-3 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
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    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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