By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
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For this endeavor, I will compare my rankings with composite ADP. Your mileage may vary depending on your league, but for the most part, these are players you can grab at or lower than their ADP without much trouble.
For the most part, my first- and second-round receivers line up with ADP. I’m slightly higher on Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and T.Y. Hilton, but not enough for them to be a good value at their ADPs. Since there are a million wide receivers, I’ll take you through guys I like five or more spots ahead of ADP, since they will be easier to get at value.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks: ADP WR20, My Ranking WR16Lockett is the no-doubt No. 1 receiver in Seattle, but there is concern over the offense being run-first. I get it, but Lockett is a true No. 1 receiver, who now gets his chance to shine with Doug Baldwin gone. The Seattle defense will also have trouble living up to its past production, and there’s a good chance the team will need to throw more often than it is planning. Reports out of camp have Lockett as the No. 1 read, with Russell Wilson leaning on him.
Allen Robinson, Bears: ADP WR28, My Ranking WR19Robinson had some trouble returning to form after his ACL injury, but we saw what he could do in the playoffs as the primary target he is meant to be. Now back to full strength, I believe in Robinson’s ability as the No. 1 receiver and Matt Nagy’s ability to get him schemed open. I expect Mitch Trubisky to lean on Robinson all season.
Christian Kirk, Cardinals: ADP WR33, My Ranking WR22Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald are the starting receivers in Arizona and then there are a lot of rookies with upside. We saw the Cardinals’ offense look awful in their second preseason game, which pushes me toward Kirk and Fitzgerald, as they are two of the safest targets for Kyler Murray when he gets into trouble. The Cardinals may not be able to live up to the hype when it comes to offensive output, but even if they fall short, they’ll still be a high-percentage passing team and will work to get as many plays as possible into a game, which elevates Kirk’s fantasy numbers as the established starter.
Alshon Jeffery, Eagles: ADP WR29, My Ranking WR24I have trouble getting behind Eagles players for fantasy because the coaches like to spread the ball around, but Jeffery is still the No. 1 receiver on a team that will have a great offense. In 13 games last year, he finished as the 26th fantasy receiver and the 19th after his debut in Week 4. DeSean Jackson could take a few targets away, but Jackson’s ability to take the top off a defense is only going to help Jeffery’s efficiency while Zach Ertz will likely see the biggest dip in target share.
Robby Anderson, Jets: ADP WR 30, My Ranking WR25Sam Darnold has taken a big step forward according to most observers, and it has shown in preseason. He already had a nice connection going with Anderson in the second half of last season, and now we’re hearing that Anderson will have a more diverse route tree as he pushes to be more than a deep threat. Adding in a threat like Le’Veon Bell should help raise the efficiency of all Jets receivers.
Curtis Samuel, Panthers: ADP WR38, My Ranking WR28Do I believe the Samuel hype? Sure, why not? With no Devin Funchess and a healthy Cam Newton, D.J. Moore and Samuel should be co-No. 1 receivers with great upside. The good news is that Samuel’s ADP is much better for drafting purposes, and if he’s truly taken such a big step forward, his upside is unknown, but very high.
Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos: ADP WR47, My Rankings WR30Sanders has beaten all expectations for his recovery and just looked great in Week 2 of the preseason, getting a run, an intermediate pass, and a deep ball that he caught, but was called back by a holding penalty. He’s not on a team that will put up big points, but he is the No. 1 receiver and has looked like it so far this summer despite his recent ACL injury. There is risk there, but he’s doing everything and looks good in the process.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: ADP WR 39, My Ranking WR33I like Christian Kirk as the No. 1 receiver in Arizona, but Old Man Fitzgerald isn’t going to go away and will be a more than reliable target for the rookie quarterback on a team with a swiss cheese offensive line.
Jamison Crowder, Jets: ADP WR63, My Ranking WR43Crowder has been Sam Darnold’s favorite receiver in camp according to most reports, and I am starting to love this Jets offense. But I already loved Crowder’s ability and have just been hoping for a healthy season from him. So far, he’s on the right track and on an up and coming offense.
John Brown, Bills: ADP WR61, My Ranking WR45Brown was great last season with the Ravens before they brought in Lamar Jackson to not pass the ball to wide receivers, and Brown has been great in camp by all accounts. Josh Allen might not be Joe Montana, but he does have a nice deep ball, which Brown is one of the best in the business at catching. We saw Robert Foster put up good numbers last year with Allen throwing him the ball, and now Foster is on the roster bubble. Brown is the real deal, and I expect some huge games from him this season.
Donte Moncrief, Steelers: ADP WR56, My Ranking WR47Moncrief appears to have the No. 2 job all sewn up in Pittsburgh, and that should be a pretty lucrative spot in a pass-happy offense. Moncrief had a few games with Andrew Luck early on and was efficient in the red zone, and maybe now he finally gets a good quarterback throwing him the ball for 16 games.
Geronimo Allison, Packers: ADP WR51, My Ranking WR46Allison started off last season putting up strong numbers but quickly was injured. He’s now in the lead for the starting slot receiver job and should be a solid target for Aaron Rodgers over the middle. There is some noise that Jake Kumerow could usurp Allison for that job, but Allison is the frontrunner. Keep an eye on the news, as Kumerow, if he can grab the slot position, would be a great draft pick, especially at his ADP.
Michael Gallup, Cowboys: ADP WR 57, My Ranking WR48Gallup is good, and he has looked great in camp while Amari Cooper is dealing with a heel injury. The question is, can Gallup get enough targets with Cooper as the No. 1 receiver? I think he can, but at his ADP, we aren’t risking huge draft capital and his ability is much higher than his ADP. Besides Gallup and Cooper, there really aren’t many receivers in Dallas who we can call musts as targets. I’m also a little bullish on the Cowboys’ change to Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator and expect a little more creativity, which should include more work for Gallup.
Adam Humphries, Titans: ADP WR 60, My Ranking WR52Humphries isn’t Corey Davis or A.J. Brown, but he is a useful slot receiver, who should be a strong target for Marcus Mariota as Mariota tries to run less and get rid of the ball faster. We saw this in the Titans’ first preseason game when Humphries saw four targets from Mariota in the starters’ limited playing time. Humphries’ upside is limited, but in full-point PPR leagues, he should have a stable floor to slide in when you need.
Cole Beasley, Bills: ADP WR106, My Ranking WR55Beasley, like Humphries, was a target hog, catching all five of his targets in Week 2 of the preseason. Josh Allen looked for him often as you can see, and I expect that to be the norm this season. His route running and ability to get open in short areas has been applauded by beat writers, and it looks like he could lead the team in targets this season at a very cheap price.
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