Free NFL Picks Against the Spread
Week 3, 2008

NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 22, 3:00 p.m. ET.



Free NFL Picks Week 3 – Early Games
Raiders at Bills, Chiefs at Falcons, Buccaneers at Bears, Cardinals at Redskins, Texans at Titans, Bengals at Giants, Dolphins at Patriots, Panthers at Vikings

Free NFL Picks Week 3 – Late Games
Lions at 49ers, Saints at Broncos, Rams at Seahawks, Browns at Ravens, Jaguars at Colts, Steelers at Eagles, Cowboys at Packers, Jets at Chargers


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I’ll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it’ll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It’ll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. New England Patriots – Oh, this Patriots team is like the 2001 version, right? They won that way against the Jets, but the Jets stink. New England’s defense is old and slow, while Matt Cassel looked like a prototypical game-manager. The Patriots threw everything they had against the Jets. They won’t be able to muster that same energy again.

2. San Diego Chargers – I just shook my head when I heard people predict the Chargers would win the Super Bowl. Yeah, good call on that. Philip Rivers is coming off ACL surgery; LaDainian Tomlinson off an MCL injury; Antonio Gates recovering from toe surgery; and Shawne Merriman is completely ineffective right now. Their defense really blows. I can’t see this team winning the AFC West.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Still here. I couldn’t believe it when one of the NBC analysts said the Jaguars can run the ball. That’s just not the case with both of their starting guards injured. David Garrard already has as many interceptions this season (3) as he did last year. The magic is gone.

4. Washington Redskins – I’m not sold that Jason Campbell mysteriously learned Jim Zorn’s West Coast offense overnight, and I’m also not buying that Zorn finally stopped tanning long enough to install simple things like a no-huddle offense. Campbell and Santana Moss simply abused an already-horrid Saints secondary that was missing its three best players, Mike McKenzie, Randall Gay and Roman Harper.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Minnesota Vikings – Yes, Tarvaris Jackson is an abomination, but the Vikings have now played the Packers and Colts to within one score. I consider both of those squads among the NFL’s elite. Save for Jackson, Minnesota is playing good football. Also remember that Bryant McKinnie returns in two weeks.

2. Seattle Seahawks – Seattle is still on my underrated list. You tell me what happens to a coach’s gameplan if his top two receivers get hurt five minutes into the game. That’s what happened to Mike Holmgren when Seneca Wallace and Logan Payne both went down. Matt Hasselbeck didn’t have any prior work with his remaining targets, save for the abysmal Courtney Taylor.

3. New Orleans Saints – Again, the Saints were missing the top three players in their secondary when they took on the Redskins. Jason Campbell’s 320-yard performance may make it seem like New Orleans has a horrific defense. They’re not great, but they’re not as awful as they looked in Week 2.

4. Houston Texans – The Texans were just waxed by the Steelers, so this is a perfect opportunity to buy low. Pittsburgh is perhaps the best team in the AFC. Houston should be more competitive against other teams. I still like their offense.











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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5
Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6
Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)