NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2019



NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 9-2 (+$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2019): 9-2 (+$1,285)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Washington Redskins (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (0-3)
Line: Redskins by 3.

Thursday, Aug. 22, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

The Redskins are 0-2 in the preseason, so perhaps this will motivate them to win one of these meaningless games. I know the Falcons are 0-3, but Dan Quinn doesn't care about prevailing in August. He hasn't even won a preseason game since 2016! The Redskins have the quarterbacking edge as well, as the Falcons have the decrepit Matt Schaub in their arsenal after Matt Ryan.

UPDATE: The best line I see is Redskins -2 (-105) at Bookmaker. I still like Washington for a unit.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Jay Gruden is 12-10 in preseason games.
  • Jay Gruden is 3-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Dan Quinn is 5-14 in preseason games.
  • Jay Gruden is 0-4 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Falcons 17
    Redskins -2 -105 (1 Unit) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$100






    Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
    Line: Ravens by 4.5.

    Thursday, Aug. 22, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I can't say I'm extremely excited to lay 4.5 points with a visiting team in the preseason, though home-field advantage doesn't mean nearly as much in August. However, I think Baltimore is the right side in this contest. John Harbaugh hasn't lost an exhibition game since 2015, while the Eagles have some major issues with their backup quarterbacks.

    UPDATE: This spread has moved to -5 across the board, but Bookmaker and 5Dimes allow you to sell points, which I'm in favor of unless you cross a key number. Five is not a key number, so I'm going with the -5.5 (-105) at 5Dimes.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 35-12 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Doug Pederson is 8-6 in preseason games.
  • Doug Pederson is 2-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Eagles 13
    Ravens -5.5 -105 (1 Unit) - 5Dimes -- No action; game did not last 55 minutes







    Houston Texans (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
    Line: Texans by 1.

    Saturday, Aug. 24, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Jason Garrett has an abysmal coaching record. He's 13-22 overall, and while he's 4-4 in Week 3 games, he might not be very eager to win this contest, given that he's coming off a victory. Speaking of that win, the Cowboys might have some jet lag coming back from Hawaii, which gives Houston an added advantage.

    UPDATE: The Texans are still pick 'em in most books, but I'd rather have the -1 (-105) available at Bookmaker. I even considered -1.5 (-101), but one is somewhat of a key number in the preseason.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Bill O'Brien is 13-8 in preseason games.
  • Bill O'Brien is 3-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Jason Garrett is 13-22 in preseason games.
  • Jason Garrett is 4-4 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Cowboys 16
    Texans -1 -105 (1 Unit) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$105







    New Orleans Saints (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Saturday, Aug. 24, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Sean Payton doesn't have a very impressive overall preseason record at 27-29. However, that's skewed by his 2-11 mark in Week 4. Conversely, he's 10-3 in Week 3. He clearly likes to win these "dress rehearsal" games. Given that he's been playing Alvin Kamara pretty heavily already, I expect to see a heavy dose of New Orleans starters, giving the Saints a big edge over the Jets in this game.

    UPDATE: The juice is currently -120 for this wager. If you live in Nevada, the Westgate has -3 at the standard -110, but I don't see anything better than -119 at Bookmaker, so I'll bet this for two units there.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Sean Payton is 27-29 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 10-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Adam Gase is 6-8 in preseason games.
  • Adam Gase is 1-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Jets 17
    Saints -3 -120 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200







    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
    Line: Titans by 3.

    Sunday, Aug. 25, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I can't say I understand why the Steelers are three-point underdogs, but I'll take it. Mike Vrabel is 1-5 in the preseason, so even though he has an excellent backup in Ryan Tannehill, he doesn't deserve to be favored in this matchup that should see Ben Roethlisberger on the field. Mike Tomlin, meanwhile, is 30-22 in exhibition games, but he's 8-2 over the past three seasons, which coincides with Landry Jones' departure. Jones was one of the worst quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL, so it's not a surprise that Tomlin is once again winning in August without him.

    UPDATE: Unfortunately, we're getting a far worse number right now because Ben Roethlisberger will reportedly play. The best line I see is Steelers PK (-105) at Bookmaker.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 30-22 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 7-5 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Vrabel is 1-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Vrabel is 0-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 30, Titans 23
    Steelers PK -105 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-2 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 3-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 4-6 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 5-5 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 4-6 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 4-5 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 7-3 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 6-4 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 2-8 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 6-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 10-1 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 3-7 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 4-4 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 5-5 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 3-7 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 5-5 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 5-5 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 5-3 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 5-5 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 4-6 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 9-1 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 6-3 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-6 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 3-5 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 6-4 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 3-6 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 7-3 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 6-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 3-7 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 4-6 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 6-4 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 5-5 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 24-25 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 37-41 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 20-18 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 30-20 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 16-14 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 13-13 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 4-3 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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