NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2026 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
2026 NFL Picks: 27-31-2 (-$1,870)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 2, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 4 NFL Picks - Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

WEEK 3 RECAP: We just had the worst betting Sunday afternoon ever. All five of our bets of three or more units lost, and we also suffered bad beats with the Jets and Rams. It was Murphy's Law. Anything that could have went wrong for our bets went wrong for our bets. Luckily, we were able to salvage some money with our great Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford ladders, which were posted in the Discord.

I'll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Seahawks, 3 units (loss): The Seahawks somehow lost to the Redskins despite outgaining Washington by 190 yards and averaging 2.8 more yards per play. They lost because a fumble and an interception gifted Washington 14 points. It didn't quite seem like the effort was there. Perhaps the Seahawks relaxed a bit with Sam Darnold returning from injury, assuming things would be easier with their starting quarterback back on the field.

Bengals, 4 units (loss): This is probably the most frustrating game of the week. There were two occasions in the fourth quarter when the Bengals were up by three and were set to get the ball back, only to make disastrous special-teams mistakes. The first time, they roughed the kicker to extend Pittsburgh's drive. The second time, they muffed a punt to give the Steelers another scoring opportunity. If those special-teams errors hadn't occurred, the Bengals almost certainly would have won and covered, or at the very least pushed.

Texans, 5 units (loss): There wasn't a bad beat in this game, and the Texans deserved to lose. I won't argue that I had the right side. What I will vent about is Daniel Jones showing way more mobility than he did in the first two games. My thesis behind taking the Texans was that Jones was immobile and therefore would be a sitting duck in the pocket against one of the top defenses in the NFL. Instead, Jones had a great run for a first down and a couple of other scrambles. He wasn't quite his old self, but he was definitely moving around much better than he did in the first two games, which was frustrating. Meanwhile, Houston's defense couldn't get off the field on most drives. Everyone on Houston's defense besides Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter is playing like crap.

Panthers, 3 units (loss): This game was also very aggravating. The Panthers outgained the Browns by 108 yards and averaged 0.8 more yards per play, but they gave the game away with two failed fourth-down attempts, one of which gave Cleveland the ball in plus territory. Even after those mistakes, Carolina seemingly sealed the victory with an interception late in the game. However, the Panthers were called for roughing the passer, giving the Browns a first down and eventually allowing them to score the game-winning touchdown.

Buccaneers, 4 units (loss): The Buccaneers are now 0-3, but they actually outgained the Vikings. They lost because they surrendered a punt-return touchdown and committed far too many mistakes. Tampa Bay looked completely unprepared to play this game. I don't know how Todd Bowles survives this defeat. If I were the owner, I would have fired him mid-game.

Matthew Stafford ladder, 3 units (win): We won six units on this ladder, thanks to Evan Daniel pointing out how absurdly low Stafford's passing yardage was for the second half.

Bears, 3 units (win): We finally won a big ATS play on Monday night, with the Bears cruising to an easy victory. It was too easy, however, so our ladders didn't hit this time. Fortunately, we nailed our +623 same-game parlay.

By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks each week will be in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those who are disappointed by this, but we had no choice; otherwise, we'd have to close up shop, and there'd be no picks anyway. Because of declining ad rates as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results blocking new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we needed to pivot in another direction to keep the website alive. We're not asking for much - just 30 cents per day - so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won't see any ads. This website will be incredibly fast and won't crash at all as a result of any ads.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I've seen Deshaun Watson get some praise for his two victories over the past couple of weeks. While Watson had a decent game against Tampa Bay's sorry defense, he did not perform well against the Panthers. In fact, Cleveland won in spite of him, although he came through in the clutch at the very end after getting some help from the officials on a roughing-the-passer penalty.

What worries me about Cleveland's offense, aside from Watson, is that the offensive line surrendered 27 pressures to the Panthers last week. This is Carolina we're talking about, not Minnesota or another elite defense.

If the Browns had that much trouble blocking the Panthers, what's going to happen against T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Keanu Benton?

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: A quarterback who actually deserves some praise is Aaron Rodgers. Although he struggled in the first couple of weeks, he finally attacked downfield against the Bengals. Cincinnati's defense has made some major improvements, yet Rodgers torched it relentlessly in the first half.

That said, I don't see Rodgers having the same success in this game. His offensive line is a major liability, and the Browns have the talent to exploit it despite Myles Garrett's departure.

Rodgers will need help from his running game once again, and he might get it. This may surprise you, but the Browns rank 24th against the run thus far. It's only been three games, but they had issues containing Chuba Hubbard last week, so perhaps Jaylen Warren could have another solid performance.

RECAP: This game is extremely unappealing from a betting perspective. If you like the Steelers, be warned that they haven't won in Cleveland since the Ben Roethlisberger days. They even lost there last year in what appeared to be a must-win game late in the season. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh rebounded the following week and beat Baltimore, so it's not like the Steelers were a bad team.

I also have issues trusting Rodgers and this offensive line. Pittsburgh played well last week, but that performance doesn't seem too repeatable against a better defense.

If you like Cleveland, however, I would be terrified to bet on a horrible team like the Browns coming off a win. Cleveland is 10-21 against the spread following a victory over the past five years. Other miserable teams perform just as poorly in this situation.

Also, the Steelers are the fresher team. Pittsburgh played just 119 total snaps last week, while Cleveland played 147. That seems significant on short rest. We've seen teams struggle on Thursday after playing overtime games the previous Sunday, so I think this disparity in workload matters more than anything else.

Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns suddenly have cluster injuries. They've already been missing right guard Teven Jenkins. Now, center Ser Elgton Jenkins will be sidelined as well. I'm still not going to bet the Steelers, however.

PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: FanDuel has a 50-percent boost on this game, up to $25. We're going to boost Pat Freiermuth most receiving yards from +1300 to +1960. The Browns have given up a fair amount of production to tight ends.

Both DraftKings and FanDuel have promos for same-game parlays. DraftKings has a 50-percent boost up to $100, while FanDuel has a no-sweat bet up to $10. I'll list the exact parlays below.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven't touched either side. I thought they might come in on the Browns, but perhaps Cleveland's offensive line injuries scared them. The best line for the Steelers is -2.5 -114 at Caesars, while the best line for the Browns is +3 -114 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.5.

Computer Model: Browns -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 53% (199,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 41 of the last 52 meetings excluding a 2018 tie (home team has won the last 9).

Steelers are 31-19 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 50 instances.

Aaron Rodgers is 144-107 ATS since 2009.

Browns are 10-21 ATS after a win since 2021.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Clear, 82 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.