NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2026 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
2026 NFL Picks: 27-31-2 (-$1,870)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 2, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 4 NFL Picks - Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings are 3-0 right now, and yet they haven't accumulated more than 246 net yards in a single game. All three of their outputs have been between 230 and 246 yards, and yet they haven't lost.

Something tells me the Vikings may crack 250 net yards in this game, given how poor their opponent is. The Dolphins have a miserable defense and haven't stopped anyone yet. Of course, they're not exactly trying very hard, or at least the coaches and front office aren't, given that they want the top pick in the draft.

Miami is at its worst when it comes to generating quarterback pressure. The Dolphins have just 29 pressures on the year, which is laughable. Compare that to the Vikings, who have 86! Kyler Murray will have all the time in the world to find his receivers. Whether that includes Justin Jefferson remains to be seen after Jefferson got hurt last week. There's optimism that he may play, but that's an unknown at the moment.

The Dolphins are also poor against the run, ranking 25th through three games. Aaron Jones might be able to hit the century mark as a result of having this easy matchup.

MIAMI OFFENSE: As mentioned above, the Vikings have 86 quarterback pressures on the year. Most of that has been the result of Brian Flores' relentless blitzing. The Vikings blitz more than any other team in the NFL by a wide margin, and that's not a good thing for Malik Willis.

Willis is atrocious against the blitz, and I'm sure Flores knows that, given that he has seen plenty of tape of Willis from previous NFC North matchups. Willis has completed 57 percent of his passes this year, but only 39.3 percent when blitzed. His YPA is 7.3 overall, but just 5.3 when blitzed. As you can tell, Willis is not going to have an easy time against Flores' defense.

It would help Willis tremendously if De'Von Achane were available, but that's not the case. Achane is out for the year with a torn ACL. The Dolphins have some talented running backs in reserve in Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright, but neither is nearly as explosive as Achane, especially in the passing game.

RECAP: I would like to fade the Vikings this week. They're 3-0, and as mentioned earlier, they haven't cracked 250 net yards in a single game. They're an overrated team, so fading them seems like a nice option.

However, that's not possible this week. I would go against Minnesota versus pretty much any team except Miami. The Dolphins are actively trying to lose. We know that owner Stephen Ross reportedly offered former coach Brian Flores $100,000 per loss several years ago. Given Miami's current direction, it's fair to question if Jeff Hafley has been offered or accepted any similar arrangement.

What we do know is that the front office is actively trying to lose to obtain the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Miami hasn't stayed within two touchdowns of any opponent, and I don't see why that would change here, especially given Willis' poor matchup against Flores' blitz-heavy scheme.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still can't bring myself to bet either side. Perhaps the play here is the under. The Vikings can't generate any yardage, while Malik Willis is woeful against the blitz.

SATURDAY NOTES: The big news here, and really the only news, is that Justin Jefferson is out. This is not going to move me off Minnesota. Jefferson is obviously an elite receiver, but the Vikings do not have cluster injuries at the position.

If, for example, Jordan Addison were also sidelined, then I would consider switching this pick to Miami. But the Vikings can win and cover in this matchup with Jefferson being the only injured receiver.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I'm not worried about the Vikings missing Justin Jefferson. The line has dropped as a result, so taking the Vikings is a bit more appealing, but I just can't get there.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There's no sharp money lean on this game. If you like the Vikings, the best line is -10 -105 at both DraftKings and BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -10.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 76% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Vikings are 54-42 ATS at home since 2014 (23-27 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -10.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.