NFL Picks Week 6 - Early Games Dolphins at Texans, Bears at Falcons, Lions at Vikings, Rams at Redskins, Panthers at Buccaneers, Bengals at Jets, Raiders at Saints, Ravens at Colts
NFL Picks Week 6 - Late Games Jaguars at Broncos, Packers at Seahawks, Eagles at 49ers, Cowboys at Cardinals, Patriots at Chargers, Giants at Browns
BYE: Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Titans
Why the split?
Starting Week 2, 2008, I'll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it'll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.
Also, check out the new feature below. It'll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.
Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.
1. New England Patriots - Why are people surprised that the Dolphins beat the Patriots? I was shocked by the score, but I thought a Miami win was pretty predictable. New England has one of the worst defenses in the league, and it looks like Randy Moss has quit on the team. Seven victories sounds about right. So far, they've beaten the Chiefs, Jets and 49ers. Let me know when they beat a legitimate NFL team.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Through four exhibition games and three regular-season contests, David Garrard STILL couldn't put together a quality performance - until he played the sorry Texans defense. Houston loaded eight men in the box, so it shouldn't be surprising that he struggled a bit against the Steelers. Oh, and Jacksonville's running game and defense aren't that good either. They could not stop Houston or a banged-up Ben Roethlisberger.
3. New York Jets - So, the Jets put up 56 points and Brett Favre threw six touchdowns. Whoop dee doo. New York couldn't stop Arizona's offense and was helped by seven careless Cardinal turnovers and a blocked field goal. The Jets still lost to Matt Cassel, got slaughtered in San Diego and barely beat the Dolphins.
4. Miami Dolphins - Everyone loves to talk about this new Wildcat offense, but in reality, the Dolphins ran it 12 times and gained only 48 yards against the Chargers. Speaking of San Diego, the team wasn't 100 percent because they were playing an early game on the East Coast immediately following a road victory. Pretty tough spot for the Chargers. Miami's other victory was against the overrated Patriots.
Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.
1. Houston Texans - The Texans aren't terrible. Sage Rosenchoker was solely responsible for the team's loss to the Colts. And despite a 31-12 final score, Houston was pretty competitive against now 5-0 Tennessee. They botched a bunch of red-zone possessions because of dumb coaching errors and a few Andre Johnson drops. A pick-six iced the game.
2. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals are not an 0-5 team. I don't know what happened to them in the first week of the season, but they were competitive with the Titans the following Sunday. In Weeks 3 and 5, they nearly beat the Giants and Cowboys as huge underdogs. They didn't really have much of a chance with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Still, Cincinnati's defense is a bit underrated. They're ranked seventh against the pass and 19th versus the run. Not exactly awful.
3. Seattle Seahawks - Everyone wants to overreact to Seattle's 44-6 loss. That's fine; we'll just make money off the general public. Mike Holmgren has perennially sucked in early East Coast games, and he seldom covers coming off a bye. Put those together, and you have a blowout. I'm not saying the Seahawks are great, but they still should be good for a 6-2 home record and a couple of easy covers as hosts over the next few weeks.
4. Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are 2-3, but they really could be 4-1. The Dallas game was close, and Andy Reid simply blew the Bears contest with horrendous play-calling and timeout mismanagement.
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Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.
1. Houston Texans - The Texans aren't terrible. Sage Rosenchoker was solely responsible for the team's loss to the Colts. And despite a 31-12 final score, Houston was pretty competitive against now 5-0 Tennessee. They botched a bunch of red-zone possessions because of dumb coaching errors and a few Andre Johnson drops. A pick-six iced the game.
2. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals are not an 0-5 team. I don't know what happened to them in the first week of the season, but they were competitive with the Titans the following Sunday. In Weeks 3 and 5, they nearly beat the Giants and Cowboys as huge underdogs. They didn't really have much of a chance with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Still, Cincinnati's defense is a bit underrated. They're ranked seventh against the pass and 19th versus the run. Not exactly awful.
3. Seattle Seahawks - Everyone wants to overreact to Seattle's 44-6 loss. That's fine; we'll just make money off the general public. Mike Holmgren has perennially sucked in early East Coast games, and he seldom covers coming off a bye. Put those together, and you have a blowout. I'm not saying the Seahawks are great, but they still should be good for a 6-2 home record and a couple of easy covers as hosts over the next few weeks.
4. Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are 2-3, but they really could be 4-1. The Dallas game was close, and Andy Reid simply blew the Bears contest with horrendous play-calling and timeout mismanagement.
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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 1, 2022): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 1, 2022): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 1, 2022): $0
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-0, 0% ($0)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 0-0, 0% ($0) 2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 0-0, 0% ($0) 2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 0-0, 0% ($0) 2022 Season Over-Under: 0-0, 0% ($0) 2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: $0
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300) 2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845) 2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200) 2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350) 2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670) 2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655) 2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965) 2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735) 2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185) 2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515) 2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640) 2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225) 2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50) 2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0) 2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495 2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715 2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975 2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040) 2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640) 2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625) 2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665) 2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,142-2,897-180, 52.0% (+$20,215) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,009-906-49 (52.7%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 484-428-23 (53.1%) Career Over-Under: 2,594-2,566-69 (50.3%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 45-30-1 (60.0%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.