Week 6 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 13, 4:35 p.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 6 – Early Games
Dolphins at Texans, Bears at Falcons, Lions at Vikings, Rams at Redskins, Panthers at Buccaneers, Bengals at Jets, Raiders at Saints, Ravens at Colts

NFL Picks Week 6 – Late Games
Jaguars at Broncos, Packers at Seahawks, Eagles at 49ers, Cowboys at Cardinals, Patriots at Chargers, Giants at Browns

BYE: Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Titans


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I’ll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it’ll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It’ll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. New England Patriots – Why are people surprised that the Dolphins beat the Patriots? I was shocked by the score, but I thought a Miami win was pretty predictable. New England has one of the worst defenses in the league, and it looks like Randy Moss has quit on the team. Seven victories sounds about right. So far, they’ve beaten the Chiefs, Jets and 49ers. Let me know when they beat a legitimate NFL team.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Through four exhibition games and three regular-season contests, David Garrard STILL couldn’t put together a quality performance – until he played the sorry Texans defense. Houston loaded eight men in the box, so it shouldn’t be surprising that he struggled a bit against the Steelers. Oh, and Jacksonville’s running game and defense aren’t that good either. They could not stop Houston or a banged-up Ben Roethlisberger.

3. New York Jets – So, the Jets put up 56 points and Brett Favre threw six touchdowns. Whoop dee doo. New York couldn’t stop Arizona’s offense and was helped by seven careless Cardinal turnovers and a blocked field goal. The Jets still lost to Matt Cassel, got slaughtered in San Diego and barely beat the Dolphins.

4. Miami Dolphins – Everyone loves to talk about this new Wildcat offense, but in reality, the Dolphins ran it 12 times and gained only 48 yards against the Chargers. Speaking of San Diego, the team wasn’t 100 percent because they were playing an early game on the East Coast immediately following a road victory. Pretty tough spot for the Chargers. Miami’s other victory was against the overrated Patriots.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Houston Texans – The Texans aren’t terrible. Sage Rosenchoker was solely responsible for the team’s loss to the Colts. And despite a 31-12 final score, Houston was pretty competitive against now 5-0 Tennessee. They botched a bunch of red-zone possessions because of dumb coaching errors and a few Andre Johnson drops. A pick-six iced the game.

2. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are not an 0-5 team. I don’t know what happened to them in the first week of the season, but they were competitive with the Titans the following Sunday. In Weeks 3 and 5, they nearly beat the Giants and Cowboys as huge underdogs. They didn’t really have much of a chance with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Still, Cincinnati’s defense is a bit underrated. They’re ranked seventh against the pass and 19th versus the run. Not exactly awful.

3. Seattle Seahawks – Everyone wants to overreact to Seattle’s 44-6 loss. That’s fine; we’ll just make money off the general public. Mike Holmgren has perennially sucked in early East Coast games, and he seldom covers coming off a bye. Put those together, and you have a blowout. I’m not saying the Seahawks are great, but they still should be good for a 6-2 home record and a couple of easy covers as hosts over the next few weeks.

4. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles are 2-3, but they really could be 4-1. The Dallas game was close, and Andy Reid simply blew the Bears contest with horrendous play-calling and timeout mismanagement.















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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 7-9	Bears: 7-9	Bucs: 9-9	49ers: 11-6
Eagles: 11-9	Lions: 14-4	Falcons: 10-6	Cardinals: 11-6
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 12-5	Panthers: 7-10	Rams: 8-11
Redskins: 9-10	Vikings: 6-10	Saints: 7-10	Seahawks: 8-7
Bills: 11-10	Bengals: 4-12	Colts: 8-8	Broncos: 11-7
Dolphins: 8-9	Browns: 8-9	Jaguars: 5-9	Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 10-7	Ravens: 10-8	Texans: 8-9	Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-5	Steelers: 8-9	Titans: 8-8	Raiders: 8-8
Divisional: 46-55 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 35-26 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 50-45 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 32-47 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 63-76 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 15-15 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 22-23 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 5-10 (2011-23: 33-37)