Week 6 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 13, 4:35 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) at Denver Broncos (4-1)
Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Broncos -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Broncos -3.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: WR Reggie Williams, G Vince Manuwai(IR), G Maurice Williams (IR). Broncos: OUT: RB Ryan Torain, C Tom Nalen (IR).

The fifth installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt. Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

Just when you think you know everything… with the Buccaneers and Broncos clashing last week, you’d think Denver would put up a lot of points, winning in some sort of potential shootout. But no – Denver’s dead pass rush suddenly comes to life, they limit Tampa Bay to six legitimate points, and they manage to score 16 on their own.

DENVER OFFENSE: Can the Broncos’ offense regroup after two pedestrian outings? Well, the Jaguars are supposed to be a rough, defensively oriented team, but they couldn’t even contain Mewelde Moore and a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger last week.

Before Jacksonville decided to jettison Marcus Stroud for a pair of mid-round picks, the team was ranked amongst the NFL’s elite at stopping the run. That’s not the case anymore, as the Jaguars are now 20th against it. They consequently have to load the box, opening up passing opportunities for the opposing quarterbacks.

That’s part of the reason why the Jaguars are 27th against the pass (you can see real run/pass defense rankings on my NFL Power Rankings page). Another reason is a low number of sacks; through five games, Jacksonville has just eight of them. Quentin Groves and Reggie Hayward lead the team with two. And thanks to his extended holdout, Derrick Harvey is nowhere to be found.

I really can’t see the Jaguars putting much pressure on Jay Cutler. Cutler won’t have the services of Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler (doubtful), but he, Brandon Marshall and Mike Shanahan’s stable of running backs could be more than Jacksonville’s stop unit can handle.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: After essentially scoring at will last year, Jacksonville’s offense is now ranked 23rd in points. There are two reasons for this:

First, more than half of the offensive line is out, which means Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor can’t run the ball against most teams. Luckily, the Broncos absolutely suck at stopping the run, ranking 31st in the NFL. Jones-Drew and Taylor trampled Indianapolis’ defensive front, so they should be able to do the same in this contest.

Second, David Garrard has put up only one solid performance all year, which happened to be against the Texans in a slim 3-point victory. Garrard has struggled ever since the preseason kicked off. Luckily for him, Denver is even worse against the pass (25th) than Houston is (23rd). The Broncos also struggle to get to the quarterback.

RECAP: As indicated by the short line, this game could go either way. While the Broncos are better, the Jaguars need this win much more than Denver does. They can’t go 2-4 and expect to make the playoffs. If they lose and the Patriots beat the Chargers, they’ll trail the final wild card spot by 2.5 games.

There’s a very nice trend going against the Broncos as well. Mike Shanahan is absolutely brutal in his second consecutive home game if the first was a victory, owning a 2-11 record against the spread in that situation. I’ll take the Jaguars, who usually perform well in an underdog role.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

Think the Jaguars need this game more? They can’t afford to fall to 2-4. The Broncos, meanwhile, are sitting pretty, two games above everyone in the AFC West. They could be in a Look-Ahead Alert, as they play New England next Monday night.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
The public loved the Jaguars early in the week, but action has leveled out.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 64% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Home Wrecker: Mike Shanahan is 2-11 ATS at home following a home win.

Jaguars are 11-3 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Broncos are 6-19 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Jaguars 19
Jaguars +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 48 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Jaguars 24, Broncos 17

Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (1-3)
Line: Seahawks by 1. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Seahawks -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Seahawks -2.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Packers.
Injuries: Packers: OUT: G Junius Coston (IR), DT Justin Harrell, CB Al Harris. Seahawks: OUT: QB Matt Hasselbeck*, WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Seneca Wallace, WR Logan Payne (IR), G Rob Sims (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Deion Branch*, OT Sean Locklear.

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “They gonna force Matt Ryan to beat him with his arm, and if they can do that they be… best off.” (Commentary: And if I ever have a kid and he listens to Emmitt, his grammar be… worst off.)

2. “I think the Jets are keeping Brett inside a box. They need to let him go…” (Commentary: So that’s why the Jets struggled so much prior to beating Arizona. Damn boxes!!!)

3. “This man comes… come to the game with a different package.” (Commentary: You gotta love Emmitt. Never before has a TV analyst corrected himself incorrectly mid-sentence. As Emmitt would say, “I incorrected myself!”)

While Emmitt’s being grammatically inept on national TV, the Seahawks are busy being completely inept on the football field. I know they suck on the road, especially in early East Coast games, and I know Mike Holmgren is now a brutal 1-10 against the spread coming off a bye, but come on… 44-6? That’s embarrassing.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I don’t think the Seahawks are THAT bad. Matt Hasselbeck’s back problems, compounded with receivers who are either injured or terrible, are reasons why Hasselbeck has a completion percentage of 49.2, a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 2-to-4, and a YPA of 5.6.

It also hurt that Hasselbeck didn’t have much practice with Deion Branch and Bobby Engram, both of whom returned from injury last week. Branch could be out again, but Hasselbeck should have a better rapport with Engram.

It’ll help matters that Julius Jones and Maurice Morris figure to run right over a Packers defense that’s ranked 29th against the rush. Green Bay has really missed Corey Williams this year, as they can’t stop any running back they come across.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s really remarkable that Aaron Rodgers played so well last week. Rodgers was 25-of-37 for 313 yards, three touchdowns and a pick, but for anyone who watched the game, Rodgers was seen wincing in pain multiple times throughout the contest. He’s really hurt.

The good news is Ryan Grant finally got going against Atlanta last week. He didn’t total 100 yards or anything, but he gained 83 yards on just 18 carries, a solid YPC of 4.6. I guess it’s sort of a coincidence that the Falcons are ranked just one slot below the Seahawks in run defense (23rd).

With Grant running at full speed, Rodgers should be able to capitalize against the league’s third-worst secondary in terms of YPA. The Seahawks’ inconsistent pass rush and awful safety play is killing them.

RECAP: Both teams have poor records, but in reality, the Packers are just one game behind the Bears for the NFC North lead. Seattle, meanwhile, can’t afford to blow another home game and fall to 1-4.

Speaking of home, the Seahawks are much better as hosts than they are on the road. I expect the fans at Qwest Field to carry their team to victory. SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: Matt Hasselbeck is out and Charlie Frye will start. Change your lineups accordingly. I’ve reduced this to one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
Both teams need a win and should be focused. Seattle needs a victory a bit more.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
How can anyone back the Seahawks after they were “debacled” 44-6 last week? The line is moving toward the Packers, so this isn’t much of a factor.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 70% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Winner Coach: Mike McCarthy is 2-0 ATS following a loss as a favorite.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 58 degrees. Light wind.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Packers 17
Seahawks +1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 44.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Packers 27, Seahawks 17

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
Line: Eagles by 4.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Eagles -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Eagles -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Injuries: Eagles: OUT: RB Brian Westbrook*, WR Kevin Curtis, CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR). QUESTIONABLE: G Shawn Andrews. 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR).

Andy Reid sucks going into the bye. Rather than spending energy and trying to think of something creative to figure out as to why Big Red can’t win before his week off, I wanted to list what I wrote last year. But then I decided to save that for after the bye because I have a lot to say about Reid:

If the Eagles lose this game, Reid needs to be fired during the bye week. Of course, that’s not going to happen because owner Jeff Lurie loves Reid and doesn’t really care about winning.

Reid does a solid job getting his team ready to play on Sunday, but he’s an abysmal game-day coach. Not as bad as Brad Clueless or Conservative Herm Edwards, but Reid’s up there. It’s really amazing – he’s been doing this for 10 years, and he still hasn’t learned how to use his timeouts. And you would think that after getting bashed by every single Philadelphia media member about his lack of creativity when it came to play-calling inside the five at Chicago, he would change up his strategy a bit and run play-action or a quarterback sneak. Nope – Reid simply called more running plays despite the fact that his best offensive lineman wasn’t in the game. He’s so stubborn, it’s sickening.

Here’s something no one can figure out: Why does Reid insist on trotting David Akers out to try 50-yard field goals? Since 2006, Akers is the second least-accurate kicker in the league. He’s three of his previous 14 from beyond 40 yards. Yet, Akers has attempted 50-yarders in consecutive weeks and hasn’t even come close, which in turn, gave Chicago and Washington great field position. When asked why he keeps doing this, Reid smuggly smirked, “He’ll fix it.” Fix it!? Akers is two months away from 34! A 33-year-old kicker can’t fix his leg strength! Ugh. I’m not even an Eagles fan; I’m just mad I lost consecutive wagers on them because of Reid’s complete ineptness.

Here’s a telling stat: In games decided by four points or less the past two years, the Eagles are 1-7! Like I said, Reid prepares his team well during the week, so if they play marginal or sub-par competition, they’ll win by a lot. But in close contests, Reid chokes. He doesn’t know what to do when “it get down to the crunch time.” Donovan McNabb’s almost as bad late in games, but Reid just stands there with his hands on his hips, looking like he’s deciding where to go out to dinner afterward.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Let me finish this write-up before my fingers start bleeding… Reid won’t be the worst coach on the field Sunday. That’ll be Mike Martz. Martz was up to his old tricks last Sunday, as Frank Gore ran the ball just 12 times. Twelve times – and the Patriots acheived their first and only double-digit lead in the fourth quarter! What a joke. Instead of feeding his best player the ball, Martz had J.T. O’Sullivan throw 29 times. O’Sullivan was picked off thrice, ending the game with a weird Kareem Abdul-Jabbar-esque hook shot which sailed out of bounds. How do these people have jobs? Seriously?

I can’t remember the last time Martz beat a Jim Johnson defense. Was it the 2001 playoffs when the Eagles lost to the Rams because both of their starting corners were hurt? I think so. Ever since, Philadelphia has dominated Martz’s flawed offenses.

That will happen once again. The 49ers can’t pass protect and the Eagles specialize in getting to the quarterback. It wouldn’t surprise me if Philadelphia registers 20 sacks in this game.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles should have Brian Westbrook in a must-win. That’s definitely great news for Philadelphians, as the 49ers couldn’t get off the field versus New England last week.

San Francisco is mediocre against both the run (16th) and the pass (17th), so look for the Eagles to score tons of points in this contest. Reid’s at the controls, so Philadelphia will throw the ball as much as possible until the team gets into the red zone. Still, the 49ers’ stop unit pales in comparison to Washington and Chicago’s, so if Reid has another brain fart inside the five, the Eagles should be able to score no matter what sort of play is called (even though the entire planet will know that it’ll be a bunch of runs toward the backup right guard).

RECAP: Two things are holding me back from making this a 5-unit play or perhaps even my Pick of the Month. First, as I mentioned above, Reid is awful prior to the bye. Second, the public is all over the Eagles. And while the line rose to -5.5, it conspicuously dropped back down to -4.5.

That said, I still like the Eagles, as this is a must-win situation for them. If they lose this game, it’s quite possible they’ll be three behind everyone in the NFC East. And if that happens, Reid must go and Kevin Kolb must start.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Brian Westbrook is out. Adjust your fantasy lineups accordingly. I still like the Eagles to thrash the woeful 49ers in a must-win situation.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles need to win this game. If they fall to 2-4, and the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys all win as big favorites, they’ll be three behind every team in the NFC East.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
The money is on the favorite, but that seems OK because the line has moved up from -4.5 to -5 in some places. It was -5.5 and -6, but the spread dropped a bit because of Brian Westbrook’s injury.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 88% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 48-31 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 2-7 ATS going into a bye under Andy Reid.

Donovan McNabb is 19-10 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 30-17 ATS on the road since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, 49ers 17
Eagles -4.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 42 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Eagles 40, 49ers 26

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
Line: Cowboys by 4.5. Total: 52.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Cowboys -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Cowboys -4.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: G Kyle Kosier, CB Terence Newman, S Roy Williams. Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR).

I waited until Wednesday night to make this pick. I wanted to clear my head. I decided to go to the gym to swim and lift weights Wednesday afternoon, but the gym was closed for some reason, so I had to unsuccessfully game the girl at the front desk. Then, I went to Subway and bought a meatball sub and a 2-liter of Coke because I’m a company man.

At any rate, I’ve been thinking about this since Tuesday morning, and I’ve decided to make this my October Pick of the Month. This could change if Adrian Wilson is suspended for his hit on Trent Edwards (unlikely) or if the public jumps ship and starts pounding the Cardinals (even less likely).

I love the Cardinals for six reasons, but before I get to them, let’s quickly go over the matchups.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals are fifth in scoring, averaging 29.4 points per game. Even when Kurt Warner turned the ball over seven times, they still managed to score 35. And speaking of those seven giveaways, I find it amazing that despite Warner’s meltdown in the Meadowlands, Arizona still has a +1 turnover ratio.

Warner is seen as a turnover machine, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. Sure, he had three picks and four fumbles against the Jets, but look at what he’s done in Arizona’s other four contests: Zero fumbles, one pick. This is part of the public’s incorrect interpretation of how good the Cardinals are, and I’ll delve more into that later.

Arizona’s offensive weakness doesn’t match up to well with Dallas’ defensive forte. The Cowboys have 14 sacks on the year, while the Cardinals have surrendered 12, though it should be noted that they didn’t allow any against Buffalo. Still, Dallas owned a similar mismatch against the Bengals last week and couldn’t exploit it. The reason? Terence Newman was out with an abdominal irritation. Newman will miss this contest as well. Without Newman, the Cowboys won’t be able to live up their 11th ranking against the pass.

DALLAS OFFENSE: This does not look favorable for the Cardinals on paper, but I’ll address this later as well. Going strictly by the numbers, Marion Barber and Felix Jones won’t enjoy much success – though I wouldn’t sit Barber in fantasy or anything – against Arizona’s ninth-ranked rush defense, which limits opponents to 3.7 yards per carry. However, Tony Romo, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten should be able to convert third downs with ease versus a Cardinal secondary that surrendered six touchdowns to Brett Favre. Arizona is 26th against the pass.

WHY I LOVE THE CARDINALS: OK, let’s get right to it. There are six reasons why I’m using Arizona as my October Pick of the Month.

1. “The Cowboys Are Not Who We Thought They Were!” Thought I’d get a Dennis Green reference in here because the Cardinals are once again home underdogs against one of the favorites in the NFC.

I’ve visited some forums, including the one on this site, to read what people had to say about this game. A few like the Cardinals to cover, but most think the Cowboys will roll because they’re the far superior team.

Are they? What exactly has Dallas done this year? They barely beat the Bengals last week, and probably would have lost if a hobbled Carson Palmer could have connected with some wide-open receivers. The Cowboys lost to the Redskins as massive favorites the week before. In Week 3, the Cowboys had their most impressive victory of the year, beating the Packers in Lambeau. However, Green Bay has since sputtered; they even lost to the Falcons at home on Sunday.

In Week 2, the Cowboys barely beat the Eagles, who like the Packers, have began to leak oil. On Kickoff Sunday, Dallas beat up on the Browns, who went on to get clobbered at Baltimore two weeks later.

There’s something off with this Cowboys squad. I can’t really put my finger on it, but it could be centered around Owens. Remember, after being targeted 17 times, Owens held a “woe is me” press conference and had to have a secret meeting with Romo. Last week, after a victory, Owens looked like he wanted to cry in front of the media. There’s just something going on, which would explain the loss to the Redskins and the close call against the Bengals.

2. “The Cardinals Are Not Who You Think They Are!” Gotta love Dennis Green. Oh, and by “you,” I mean the general public.

Public perception regarding the Cardinals is that they’re a turnover-prone, defensively challenged squad. That’s not true at all.

As mentioned above, Kurt Warner had that seven-turnover game. In his other four starts, he has just one giveaway and zero fumbles. Warner struggled in just one of his five games this season.

Oh, but the Cardinals couldn’t stop the Jets, right? Yes, but there is an explanation for that. Adrian Wilson was out. Wilson could be the top safety in the league, and he’s far and away the most talented defensive player the Cardinals have. Arizona couldn’t stop the pass late last year when they didn’t have Wilson, and that happened to be the case in the Meadowlands. Wilson came back for the Bills game, which the Cardinals easily dominated.

3. Cardinals’ Homefield Advantage: You may laugh, but the Cardinals have one of the more dynamic homefield advantages in the NFL. Since Ken Whisenhunt stepped in, Arizona is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the number as hosts. And those aren’t wins against rinky-dinky teams; the Cardinals beat the Bills last week, and the Steelers, Seahawks and Browns in 2007, all of whom had 10 wins or more that season.

Taking it one step further, the Cardinals are 5-0 straight up (and ATS) at home under Whisenhunt as either underdogs or favorites of three or less. For whatever reason, they seem to rise up to the occasion and beat superior squads at home.

4. Cardinals’ Super Bowl: Who’s Arizona’s greatest rival? It’s not the Rams. It’s not the Seahawks. It’s not the 49ers. It’s the Cowboys. The Cardinals absolutely despise Dallas, as Cowboy fans often crash Arizona’s homefield. But those same fans always walk away disappointed; the Cardinals are 5-2 against Dallas at home since 1997, with two of those straight-up victories coming in an underdog role.

I’m not surprised by that statistic. If you’re an NFL player and opposing fans flood your stadium, that has to give you motivation to win so you can shut those people up and prove that you’re the better team.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys don’t really care about the Cardinals. That’s why they seldom come out of the Desert alive. They walk in and they just don’t know what hit them.

5. Todd Haley: Who is Todd Haley? He’s Arizona’s offensive coordinator, and he coached the Cowboys in 2005 and 2006.

What does that mean? Well, coaches who play their former team usually fare pretty favorably. Haley knows all of the strengths and weaknesses of Tony Romo and the Cowboys’ defense, and he should be able to help his team exploit them. Remember, Arizona beat Pittsburgh last year in a similar situation, as Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm were ex-coaches of the Steelers.

6. The Vegas: This line opened at -6. The public predictably jumped all over the Cowboys. But instead of moving the spread up to create 50-50 betting action, the books have dropped the line to -5. It’s even -4.5 in some places, as of Wednesday evening. Why does Vegas want even more action on Dallas? Something’s fishy.

RECAP: So there you have it. I like the Cardinals to win and cover as my October Pick of the Month. Keep in mind that while my Picks of the Month have done well recently, nothing is a lock. Don’t ever bet more than you can afford because no person on this planet can predict how the ball will bounce with 100-percent accuracy.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

I’m not sure how focused the Cowboys are for the Cardinals, but Arizona always plays arch rival Dallas tough at home.

Cardinals OC Todd Haley coached the Cowboys in 2005-2006.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

No surprise that the public loves the Cowboys. So, why is the line dropping toward Arizona?

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (167,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Tony Romo is 15-7 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 9-3 ATS on the road.

Cardinals are 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) at home under Ken Whisenhunt.

Cardinals are 5-0 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Cardinals 34, Cowboys 24
Cardinals +4.5 (8 Units – October Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$800
Over 52 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Cardinals 30, Cowboys 24

New England Patriots (3-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3)
Line: Chargers by 5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Chargers -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Chargers -3.
Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Injuries: Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), OT Ryan O’Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, S Tank Williams (IR). Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Chris Chambers*.

It’s time for the Bo-Bo Fantasy Update! If you don’t know what this is, check out the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Ever. Is it possible that after dreaming about a possible 0-14 Bo-Bo season, Bo-Bo could be headed for the Doggone Playoff? Bo-Bo won again last weekend, improving his record to 2-3. He started LeRon McClain, Ahmad Bradshaw and Bo Scaife, all of whom put up big numbers for him. It’s great that Bo-Bo had enough time to pick those guys up amid having sex with 50 girls at once and owning half of Philadelphia.

I actually love this game a lot too. If I didn’t have a hard on for the Cardinals over the Cowboys this week, I would actually consider this contest as my October Pick of the Month.

So, whom do I like here? That’ll become obvious as I talk about the matchups.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Matt Cassel is garbage! Obvious yet? Everyone on highlight shows was ranting and raving about his 60-yard bomb to Randy Moss, and to be honest, it was a thing of beauty, but everyone is ignoring what happened right after that. Cassel tried going deep to Moss again, but severely underthrew him. If the 49ers weren’t so pathetic, they would have picked him off. Excluding that 60-yard bomb, Cassel failed to complete a pass longer than 20 yards the rest of the afternoon.

The bottom line is, the Patriots looked great against San Francisco because the 49ers suck. Their running game will return to nothingness against the Chargers. And if Cassel tries to fling a pass downfield again, you can bet that Antonio Cromartie will pick it off. Cassel won’t have time to do so anyway; unlike San Francisco, San Diego can rush the passer, as the team has 13 sacks on the year.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Patriots’ defense is old and slow, but the 49ers couldn’t expose it because Mike Martz is an idiot who refused to run the ball (Frank Gore had 12 carries) and instead had J.T. O’Sullivan throw it 29 times. O’Sullivan was so abysmal, he attempted a Kareem Abdul-Jabbar-esque hookshot at the end of the game, which sailed 10 yards out of bounds.

I know the Chargers struggled to move the chains last week, but they were playing an early game on the East Coast, and they were saving their energy for this battle. Philip Rivers should be able to rebound and torch New England’s abysmal secondary. Meanwhile, LaDainian Tomlinson is hurt, which I think is a disadvantage for the Patriots because they don’t match up as well against Darren Sproles. Sproles, capable of taking it the distance every time he touches the ball, should be able to run circles against New England’s archaic stop unit.

RECAP: Huge, HUGE revenge spot for the Chargers, who lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship last year. Combined with the fact that a loss could spell the end for San Diego’s season, this game means way more to them than any other contest on their slate.

New England’s a wounded football team. The Dolphins already exposed them. The Chargers have to be smelling blood. This could get ugly.

One last thing. This line is pretty high, inducing everyone to back the Patriots who just beat a horrible football team on the road. Barely anyone likes the Chargers because they just lost to the Dolphins. Yet, the spread is -5.5. If Vegas wanted equal action, they would have opened the line at -3 or -3.5. I like the idea of buying low on San Diego and selling high on New England.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Chargers need to win this game for two reasons: 1) If they lose and the Broncos win, they’ll be three behind Denver. 2) Revenge for the AFC Championship loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
The public likes the Patriots and the line is headed that way.

Percentage of money on New England: 66% (161,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 12-6 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 70 degrees. Light wind.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Chargers 38, Patriots 17
Chargers -5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 44 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Chargers 30, Patriots 10

New York Giants (4-0) at Cleveland Browns (1-3)
Line: Giants by 8. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Giants -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Giants -7.5.
Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Giants.

Injuries: Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), WR David Tyree, DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR), K Lawrence Tynes. Browns: OUT: WR Joe Jurevicius, G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 6 NFL Look-Alike Thread, featuring Scott Linehan.

Is it even worth delving into these matchups? This is a blowout on paper. Let’s review this quickly.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Cleveland’s defense sucks. They’re 18th against the run and 22nd versus the pass. Worst of all, they have just six sacks on the year.

How in the world are they going to stop a Giants offense that’s clicking on all cylinders? Brandon Jacobs is an unstoppable force, as defenders shy away from the 265-pound freight train as he’s running down the field. This allows Eli Manning to enjoy solid protection behind one of the elite offensive lines in the league. Plaxico Burress will be back, so Manning will have his entire arsenal to work with, including the emerging Domenik Hixon, who had four catches, 102 yards and a touchdown in just one half of action last week.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Derek Anderson has been awful the entire season. I don’t know what’s worse: His 49.6 completion percentage, his 3-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio or his 4.6 YPA.

Of course it doesn’t help that Jamal Lewis is averaging 3.4 yards per carry and Braylon Edwards is dropping everything in sight. Lewis won’t be able to do anything versus New York’s seventh-ranked rush defense, forcing Anderson to convert everything by himself. Luckily, his superb offensive front will help protect him from the Giants’ dominant pass rush.

RECAP: The Giants are clearly the better team, but that’s why they’re 7.5-point favorites on the road. Despite everything I’ve just written, I sort of like the Browns in this contest.

This is do-or-die for Cleveland. If the Browns don’t win this game, their season is over. The Giants don’t really need a victory here, and they could actually be feeling way too good about themselves after their 44-6 thrashing of Seattle.

Furthermore, this figures to be a very emotional game for the Browns for two reasons. First, they were completely embarrassed on national TV by the Giants in the preseason. Second, the city of Cleveland hasn’t hosted a Monday night game in five years, so you know the crowd’s going to be berserk.

Still, despite those previous two paragraphs, I wouldn’t recommend anything more than a unit on Cleveland. The Giants are such a good team, especially on the road, it wouldn’t shock me if they won by 30. This just happens to be a very poor spot for them, which is why I’m siding with the host for a very small play.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Browns will be in Revenge Mode after being embarrassed by the Giants on national TV this preseason. This is Cleveland’s first Monday night game since 2003, so the crowd will be pumped up.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
The public is all over the Giants, though the line moved off the key number of seven.

Percentage of money on New York: 79% (366,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 16-4 ATS on the road since 2006.

Giants are 9-15 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 24 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Giants 25, Browns 24
Browns +8 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 43 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Browns 35, Giants 14

Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games
Dolphins at Texans, Bears at Falcons, Lions at Vikings, Rams at Redskins, Panthers at Buccaneers, Bengals at Jets, Raiders at Saints, Ravens at Colts

Printable version of Week 6 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Saints -1, Eagles +1 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400

Live Dog: Jaguars +155 (2 Units) — Correct; +$310

Live Dog: Cardinals +190 (2 Units) — Correct; +$380

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)