WalterFootball.com: NFL Picks Against the Spread

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 12-3 (+$1,680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2019): 12-3 (+$1,680)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Line: Steelers by 4.
Thursday, Aug. 29, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

As I wrote last week, Mike Tomlin has been much better in the preseason since ditching Landry Jones. He's 9-2 in the past three Augusts, so I like him in the finale. He has far better backup quarterbacks than Ron Rivera, who is just 4-4 in Week 4.

UPDATE: Bettors had the same idea I did, as they bet the Steelers up to -4 across the board. I'm still going with two units on Pittsburgh. I think I'm going to hold out for a better number, so I'll have an update about 30-45 minutes prior to kickoff.

UPDATE at 6:30: There's no change, unfortunately, as this line is still -4 in most places. I'll just bet the -4 (-110), as we have no choice otherwise.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 31-22 in preseason games.

Mike Tomlin is 8-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Ron Rivera is 19-16 in preseason games.

Ron Rivers is 4-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Panthers 13
Steelers -4 (2 Units) - any sportsbook -- Incorrect; -$220

Minnesota Vikings (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-0)
Line: Vikings by 3.
Thursday, Aug. 29, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

Mike Zimmer is an ungodly 20-4 in August, and he'll be using the Tom Brady of the preseason, Kyle Sloter, for at least a half. Sean McDermott is 3-0 this preseason and has never lost in Week 4 (2-0), so I'm hesitant to go big here, but I think the combination of Zimmer and Sloter will find a way to get there.

UPDATE: Here's another one I'll be waiting for. This line is -3 everywhere, but the juice is -115. I'm hoping for the standard -110.

UPDATE at 6:30: I'm still seeing -3 (-115), so nothing has changed here either. I'll bet a unit on that line and juice.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 20-4 in preseason games.

Mike Zimmer is 3-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Sean McDermott is 6-5 in preseason games.

Sean McDermott is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Bills 20
Vikings -3 -115 (1 Unit) - any sportsbook -- Incorrect; -$115

Detroit Lions (1-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)
Line: Browns by 4.
Thursday, Aug. 29, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

I'm not crazy about laying more than a field goal with an unknown commodity in Freddie Kitchens. The new Cleveland coach is 2-1 in the preseason, but he could totally punt Week 4 for all we know. What we do know, however, is that Matt Patricia doesn't care about exhibition games, as evidenced by his 1-6 record in August. Given the number of injuries Detroit suffered last week, Patricia may opt to be extra careful in this contest.

UPDATE: This line has risen as well, moving to -5.5. I don't think it'll get to -6, so this is yet another one I'll provide a later update for.

UPDATE at 6:30: Another non-change, so I'm going to stick with one unit at -5.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Matt Patricia is 1-6 in preseason games.

Matt Patricia is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Freddie Kitchens is 2-1 in preseason games.

Freddie Kitchens is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Lions 13
Browns -5.5 (1 Unit) - any sportsbook -- Incorrect; -$110

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Line: Cowboys by 3.
Thursday, Aug. 29, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

The Buccaneers seem like a great play as a field-goal underdog. They have great depth, and Bruce Arians owns a winning record in Week 4. Jason Garrett, meanwhile, is a pedestrian 2-5 in preseason finales.

UPDATE: Ah, here's one we can finally lock in. The Cowboys have moved to -5.5 in most books. Five is not a key number, so we can sell a point. The juice for +4.5 is +100 at 5Dimes.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Bruce Arians is 11-13 in preseason games.

Bruce Arians is 3-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Jason Garrett is 14-22 in preseason games.

Jason Garrett is 2-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 17, Cowboys 16
Buccaneers +4.5 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$200

Miami Dolphins (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Line: Saints by 3.5.
Thursday, Aug. 29, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

Looking at how coaches approach certain weeks of the preseason is important. Sean Payton is a great example of that. We bet on him last week because he's 11-3 in Week 3, yet he's an abysmal 2-11 in exhibition finales. He simply doesn't care about this game. The Dolphins, conversely, still have a quarterback controversy on their hands, so perhaps we'll see some of Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Josh Rosen.

UPDATE: This line hasn't moved, so perhaps we'll get something better closer to kickoff.

UPDATE at 6:30: This is still +3.5 with the standard -110 across the board, so I'll have one unit on that.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Brian Flores is 2-1 in preseason games.

Brian Flores is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Sean Payton is 28-29 in preseason games.

Sean Payton is 2-11 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Dolphins 21, Saints 20
Dolphins +3.5 (1 Unit) - any sportsbook -- Correct; +$100

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 22 and Season Props, 2021): 1-0 (+$4,555)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 22, 2021): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 22, 2021): 1-0 (+$600)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 22, 2021): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 22 and Season Props, 2021): +$3,855

2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)

2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,142-2,897-180, 52.0% (+$20,215)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,009-906-49 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 484-428-23 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,594-2,566-69 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 45-30-1 (60.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 11-7	Bears: 11-5	Bucs: 7-12	49ers: 12-8
Eagles: 10-8	Lions: 9-7	Falcons: 10-7	Cardinals: 8-10
Giants: 9-8	Packers: 8-9	Panthers: 9-8	Rams: 13-8
Redskins: 7-10	Vikings: 9-8	Saints: 11-5	Seahawks: 11-6

Bills: 10-9	Bengals: 13-7	Colts: 5-12	Broncos: 9-8
Dolphins: 7-10	Browns: 8-9	Jaguars: 8-9	Chargers: 9-8
Jets: 6-11	Ravens: 10-7	Texans: 3-14	Chiefs: 11-9
Patriots: 9-9	Steelers: 8-10	Titans: 11-7	Raiders: 11-7

Divisional: 54-43 (2011-20: 448-442)	2x Game Edge: 57-62 (2011-20: 279-271)	2x Motivation Edge: 47-48 (2011-20: 394-318)	2x Spread Edge: 48-40 (2011-20: 105-89)
2x Vegas Edge: 35-42 (2011-20: 346-357)	2x Trend Edge: 16-18 (2011-20: 270-241)	Double Edge: 23-27 (2011-20: 149-128)	Triple Edge: 4-10 (2011-20: 27-22)

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