NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2019



NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 12-3 (+$1,680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2019): 12-3 (+$1,680)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Line: Steelers by 4.

Thursday, Aug. 29, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

As I wrote last week, Mike Tomlin has been much better in the preseason since ditching Landry Jones. He's 9-2 in the past three Augusts, so I like him in the finale. He has far better backup quarterbacks than Ron Rivera, who is just 4-4 in Week 4.

UPDATE: Bettors had the same idea I did, as they bet the Steelers up to -4 across the board. I'm still going with two units on Pittsburgh. I think I'm going to hold out for a better number, so I'll have an update about 30-45 minutes prior to kickoff.

UPDATE at 6:30: There's no change, unfortunately, as this line is still -4 in most places. I'll just bet the -4 (-110), as we have no choice otherwise.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 31-22 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 8-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 19-16 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivers is 4-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Panthers 13
    Steelers -4 (2 Units) - any sportsbook -- Incorrect; -$220






    Minnesota Vikings (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-0)
    Line: Vikings by 3.

    Thursday, Aug. 29, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Mike Zimmer is an ungodly 20-4 in August, and he'll be using the Tom Brady of the preseason, Kyle Sloter, for at least a half. Sean McDermott is 3-0 this preseason and has never lost in Week 4 (2-0), so I'm hesitant to go big here, but I think the combination of Zimmer and Sloter will find a way to get there.

    UPDATE: Here's another one I'll be waiting for. This line is -3 everywhere, but the juice is -115. I'm hoping for the standard -110.

    UPDATE at 6:30: I'm still seeing -3 (-115), so nothing has changed here either. I'll bet a unit on that line and juice.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Mike Zimmer is 20-4 in preseason games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 3-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Sean McDermott is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Sean McDermott is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Bills 20
    Vikings -3 -115 (1 Unit) - any sportsbook -- Incorrect; -$115







    Detroit Lions (1-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)
    Line: Browns by 4.

    Thursday, Aug. 29, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I'm not crazy about laying more than a field goal with an unknown commodity in Freddie Kitchens. The new Cleveland coach is 2-1 in the preseason, but he could totally punt Week 4 for all we know. What we do know, however, is that Matt Patricia doesn't care about exhibition games, as evidenced by his 1-6 record in August. Given the number of injuries Detroit suffered last week, Patricia may opt to be extra careful in this contest.

    UPDATE: This line has risen as well, moving to -5.5. I don't think it'll get to -6, so this is yet another one I'll provide a later update for.

    UPDATE at 6:30: Another non-change, so I'm going to stick with one unit at -5.5.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Matt Patricia is 1-6 in preseason games.
  • Matt Patricia is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Freddie Kitchens is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Freddie Kitchens is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Lions 13
    Browns -5.5 (1 Unit) - any sportsbook -- Incorrect; -$110







    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
    Line: Cowboys by 3.

    Thursday, Aug. 29, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    The Buccaneers seem like a great play as a field-goal underdog. They have great depth, and Bruce Arians owns a winning record in Week 4. Jason Garrett, meanwhile, is a pedestrian 2-5 in preseason finales.

    UPDATE: Ah, here's one we can finally lock in. The Cowboys have moved to -5.5 in most books. Five is not a key number, so we can sell a point. The juice for +4.5 is +100 at 5Dimes.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Bruce Arians is 11-13 in preseason games.
  • Bruce Arians is 3-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jason Garrett is 14-22 in preseason games.
  • Jason Garrett is 2-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 17, Cowboys 16
    Buccaneers +4.5 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$200







    Miami Dolphins (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.5.

    Thursday, Aug. 29, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Looking at how coaches approach certain weeks of the preseason is important. Sean Payton is a great example of that. We bet on him last week because he's 11-3 in Week 3, yet he's an abysmal 2-11 in exhibition finales. He simply doesn't care about this game. The Dolphins, conversely, still have a quarterback controversy on their hands, so perhaps we'll see some of Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Josh Rosen.

    UPDATE: This line hasn't moved, so perhaps we'll get something better closer to kickoff.

    UPDATE at 6:30: This is still +3.5 with the standard -110 across the board, so I'll have one unit on that.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Brian Flores is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Brian Flores is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Sean Payton is 28-29 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 2-11 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Dolphins 21, Saints 20
    Dolphins +3.5 (1 Unit) - any sportsbook -- Correct; +$100




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 6-1 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 3-4 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 3-3 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 3-4 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 3-4 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 2-4 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 5-2 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 5-2 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 2-5 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 4-2 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 6-1 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 2-5 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 4-2 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 3-3 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 2-4 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 4-2 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 5-2 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 3-2 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 3-3 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 3-3 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 6-0 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 5-1 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-3 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 1-3 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 5-2 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 3-2 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 6-1 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 4-3 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 3-3 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 3-3 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 4-2 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 5-1 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 19-11 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 29-22 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 10-12 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 22-14 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 13-12 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 8-4 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 11-10 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 3-1 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
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    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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