NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)

NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 14, 2:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 35.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Steelers -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Steelers -4.5.
Thursday, Sept. 10, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

I said it last year, and I’ll say it again. I love the NFL, but I won’t be watching any of that NFL Kickoff Concert crap before the Pittsburgh-Tennessee game. I pretty much suck when it comes to pop culture – a year ago, I thought Hannah Montana was a porn star (Debbie Does Dallas, Hannah Does Montana) – but I was curious if I could recognize any of the performers, so I looked them up.

Unfortunately, I was very confused. Googling “NFL Kickoff Concert” netted me two separate pages. One told me Tim McGraw and the Black Eyed Peas were performing. The other said Keith Urban (no relation to Keith Rural) and Usher were doing the show. I’m pretty sure Tim McGraw was a baseball pitcher, so I believed it was the latter page until I saw a promo that said “Usher – one of the industry’s hottest stars.” Really? Has Usher made a song in the last 10 years? I remember listening to him in high school when I was a pimply teenager who got rejected by every single girl known to man.

What’s actually funny is that I just looked through my iTunes playlist and noticed that I downloaded an Usher song. So, not only am I uncool when it comes to pop culture, I’m growing senile as well. Hopefully this doesn’t affect my picks this year. If it does, at least I’ll have a built-in excuse.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Titans ranked fourth against the run and second versus the pass last year, but don’t expect their defense to match those numbers in 2009. Albert Haynesworth’s absence will affect the entire stop unit. Tennessee held Willie Parker to 31 yards on 19 carries, and forced Ben Roethlisberger into two picks and four fumbles, but that’s not going to happen again.

I’m still not convinced that Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball effectively, but you could see Roethlisberger go 25-of-39 for 329 yards again – only without all of the turnovers this time. The Titans will not be able to put as much pressure on Roethlisberger as they were able to in last year’s meeting; I know Haynesworth didn’t play in that contest, but Tennessee received an unrealistic contribution from Jason Jones, a 280-pound defensive tackle who had 3.5 sacks. I’m going out on a limb and saying that’s not going to happen again.

With less pressure applied on the quarterback, you’re going to see Tennessee’s secondary struggle this year. I still like Cortland Finnegan, but whomever Nick Harper is matched up against will have a field day.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I know it was just the preseason, but the Titans couldn’t run the ball effectively. In five contests against the Bills, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Browns and Packers (not exactly the top defenses in the league), Chris Johnson was only able to muster 77 yards on 25 carries, for a 3.1 average. Center Kevin Mawae and right tackle David Stewart were out, so having them back will be a huge boost, but I think that’s pretty much negated this week by Pittsburgh’s stout run defense.

Johnson should still have a decent game catching the ball out of the backfield, but his rushing yardage will be limited by last year’s No. 1 ground defense. If that’s the case, Kerry Collins will have to convert third-and-long situations, which could be disastrous against Pittsburgh’s stop unit. Collins has been sharp this preseason (276 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), but that was against sub-par teams like the Bills, Buccaneers and Browns playing vanilla defense. It would not surprise me to see the Steelers come away with a pick-six here.

RECAP: I like the Steelers for a number of reasons. First, betting on the host in the NFL Kickoff Classic has been a huge money-maker; Super Bowl champions are undefeated in their home opener since 2004. Second, this is a big revenge game. The Titans thrashed the Steelers 31-14 last year. That contest was closer than the score indicates. It was also in Tennessee, and because the Titans were missing Haynesworth, it’s my belief that Pittsburgh took them lightly. And third, the Steelers are just the better team this year. The Titans are not the same squad with Haynesworth permanently gone.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

There’s a reason Super Bowl champions are undefeated in their home opener since the NFL gave them the opportunity to host the first game of the season back in 2004. This is also a Revenge Alert; the Titans thrashed the Steelers last year.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Heavy action on the defending champs has driven this line up from -4.5 to -6 in some places.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 72% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Titans are 17-8 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.

Ben Roethlisberger is 60-21 as a starter (48-32 ATS).

Opening Line: Steelers -4.5.

Opening Total: 35.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 66 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 31, Titans 14
Steelers -6 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440 (Thanks for fumbling, Hines)
Over 35 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Steelers 13, Titans 10

Steelers-Titans Recap

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Falcons -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Falcons -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Regardless of what I think about that NFL Kickoff concert, I’m thrilled the NFL is back. I can stop snorting coke and slitting my wrists in anticipation of the 2009 NFL season.

I’ve watched tons of football the past few weeks. Excluding Week 4 of the preseason, I’ve watched every preseason contest from start to finish for the 2009 Fantasy Football: Preseason Stock page. But despite the countless hours I put into doing that, I can’t wait for the real games to begin. Nothing beats the NFL.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I don’t need to tell you that Matt Ryan had a phenomenal rookie season, but I think we’re going to see him take the next step in his sophomore campaign. Atlanta coaches have been ranting and raving about Ryan’s dedication this offseason. His arm strength has improved, and now that he’s not a rookie anymore, he’ll make better decisions. Also, based on his sweater vests and boring demeanor, Ryan, like Peyton Manning, doesn’t seem to have much of a life outside of football and family. He probably spent every single minute studying film this spring and summer.

Oh, and let’s not forget about Tony Gonzalez. Not only is Gonzalez a premier target that Ryan will make excellent use of, he’s also a top-notch blocker in the running game. With nose tackle Jason Ferguson in the twilight of his career, the Dolphins were just 17th versus the rush in 2008. Michael Turner is going to have a huge game.

Miami will have to place an extra man in the box to stop Turner. This will give Ryan solid pass protection behind a stout offensive line, and open up even more opportunities for Gonzalez and Roddy White. Will Allen, the Dolphins’ No. 1 corner, is a decent player, but is no match for someone of White’s caliber.

MIAMI OFFENSE: If the Falcons even had a mediocre defense, they’d be one of the top five teams in the league. Unfortunately, they did very little to help their 28th ranking against the run. They managed to draft Peria Jerry with their first-round selection in April, but he’s too undersized to play the nose tackle position. Like the Dolphins, Atlanta will have to suck in an eighth man to keep Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams from breaking big gains.

Chad Pennington should be able to convert most of his third-and-short situations. Pennington’s lacking arm strength will hurt the Dolphins against better defenses in the league, but it’s good enough to beat the Falcons.

The matchup that could decide this game is John Abraham versus Jake Long. Long, the No. 1 overall selection in the 2008 NFL Draft, will have his hands full with Abraham, who had 16 sacks last year. Long is an incredible run-blocker, but is not as strong in pass protection. He gave up only 2.5 sacks last season, but we’ve seen several offensive tackles take a small step backward in their sophomore campaign (Joe Staley, Joe Thomas, Ryan McNeill to name a few). I’m giving the edge to Abraham.

RECAP: I think the Falcons are the better team, but I feel as though that like ESPN, I might be overrating them because they have a great offense and a horrible defense. I usually like fading squads like this, but this line doesn’t seem to have the same type of Indianapolis Colts inflation (if it did, Atlanta would be -6.5 or -7). So, with a gun to my head, I’d take Atlanta, but I wouldn’t recommend betting on it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psycholgocial edge found yet.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

A bit surprised that the public isn’t all over the all-offense, no-defense Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 67% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 30-19 SU in September since 1994.

Matt Ryan is 5-2 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Dolphins 20
Falcons -4 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 43.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Falcons 19, Dolphins 7

Denver Broncos (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
Line: Bengals by 5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Broncos -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Bengals -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

I mentioned this in the last update of my 2009 NFL POwer Rankings: Doesn’t the Denver Broncos’ situation remind you of Season 2 of Friday Night Lights? If you’re unfamiliar with the show, the coach of the high school team left for a college job. Meanwhile, the high school team that he led to the state championship is falling apart because the new coach doesn’t know how to handle the players. So, the high school team’s biggest booster calls his old coach and meets him at a diner halfway in between the high school and the college. He begs the old coach to come back and offers him more money. The old coach eventually obliges.

I can totally see Broncos owner Pat Bowlen doing that with Mike Shanahan. In fact, they’re probably having a secret meeting at some random diner in the middle of nowhere as you’re reading this. Josh Mishandles has been a disaster. I don’t think there has ever been a coach fired before his first game. If there hasn’t been one, I don’t know how Mishandles hasn’t made history already. Perhaps Shanahan is demanding too much. Something tells me that Bowlen will cave once the Broncos lose their first game 52-3.

DENVER OFFENSE: What a mess. Just when you thought you’ve seen enough dumb people who continuously draft wide receivers in the top 10 and judge their scouting solely based on 40 times, Josh Mishandles comes in, acts like a spoiled brat and trades away his franchise quarterback for crappy players and draft picks he’s just going to ruin.

The Bengals are one of my top three underrated teams – check the NFL Picks home page to see the rest – because they have an outstanding defense. Seriously, don’t laugh. Cincinnati finished 12th in defense last year, and that was without their star weakside linebacker Keith Rivers. With Rey Maualuga in the lineup, and Rivers and defensive end Robert Geathers healthy again, the Bengals defense could be even better in 2009.

Denver has a joke of an offense that is predicated on short Kyle Orton passes. Orton can’t fling the ball downfield longer than 15 yards and opposing defenses don’t have to cover every area of the field because he can’t make all of the NFL throws. The Broncos will be able to move the chains because Eddie Royal can turn a short reception into a long gain, but Orton, who is new in this offense, will commit a few turnovers. Marvin Lewis’ defenses tend to be opportunistic, so I’m expecting Cincinnati to come away with 3-4 take-aways.

Aside from Royal and their prolific offensive line, the one redeeming quality that the Broncos have is Knowshon Moreno. Moreno, who, aside from Adrian Peterson, is the most talented running back to come into the NFL since LaDainian Tomlinson. He’s on track to play this game after suffering a minor MCL injury a few weeks ago. Moreno is good enough to lead the Broncos to a few victories by himself, but because he’s coming off an injury, I’m expecting Mishandles to ease him into the game. Moreno will do big things later in the year, but Cincinnati’s vastly underrated defense will keep him under wraps.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Josh Mishandles’ mantra is, “If it ain’t broke, make it worse. And if it is broke, ignore it!” I find it hilarious that despite the fact that Denver had a great offense and a lousy defense last year, Mishandles spent all of his energy “improving” the former this offseason. Even owner Pat Bowlen called Mishandles out by telling the media he wished more draft picks were spent on improving the stop unit.

The Bengals don’t have a good offensive line, but I don’t think Denver’s defense will be able to contain Cedric Benson. The Broncos ranked 29th versus the rush in 2008, giving up 5.1 yards per carry. I don’t see any evidence that they’ve improved in that department.

Denver’s secondary has seen some changes, though no upgrades were made. The defensive backfield is full of 30-year-olds who are past their primes. Champ Bailey can still play, but Brian Dawkins, Renaldo Hill and Andre Goodman? This has to be some sort of joke, right?

Unless Cincinnati’s stop unit does all of the work, a now-healthy Carson Palmer should be good for 300-plus yards, as Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles and Chris Henry will torch the Broncos’ sorry secondary.

RECAP: I’m very frustrated. When this line came out in May, the Broncos were a short favorite. I was aware of how much Josh Mishandles ruined the Broncos, so I was ready to bet my life savings on the Bengals. Unfortunately, Mishandles embarrassed himself in the preseason, so this line has moved up to -4 in the Bengals’ favor. Even worse, most of the public is on Cincinnati (see below). The Bengals will still cover, but I don’t love this game as much now that everyone is on the bandwagon.

UNIT UPGRADE: I’ve increased this game to four units. My confidence in Cincinnati has increased with the line moving up to match the action, and I think this is almost a lock to be a blowout.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found yet.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Josh Mishandles has made a fool of himself and the Broncos organization this offseason. The public has taken note, though the line is moving up to compensate.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 88% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bengals are 8-23 ATS in September home games since 1992.

Opening Line: Bengals -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Bengals 31, Broncos 10
Bengals -5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 42 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Broncos 12, Bengals 7

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 4. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Vikings -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Vikings -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

To those of you who are fairly new to the site, I’ll have detailed NFL Picks like these each week. Also, look for the following features each week:

2010 NFL Mock Draft Updates

Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em

2009 NFL Power Rankings

2009 NFL Game Recaps

Emmitt on the Brink

2010 NFL Draft Prospect Stock Reports

2010 NFL Draft Prospect Ranking Updates

Jerks of the Week

2011 NFL Mock Draft Updates (monthly)

2009 College Football Picks

And that’s about it from me. Matt will have his updates, and the NBA Draft guys will post stuff as well. So, just continue to read on, send this out to your friends, or join the forum, where there will be live in-game threads every week.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Something that both Matt and I discussed this summer was the disdain we had for Minnesota’s addition of Brett Favre. Not only is Favre old, injured and interception-prone, the acquisition basically told all of the Vikings players that Brad Clueless is a liar. Clueless told everyone that all of the Favre drama was finished. But despite brilliant preseason performances by Sage Rosenfails and Tarvaris Jackson, Clueless went behind the team’s back and signed Favre anyway.

Favre lucks out because he gets to play with Adrian Peterson. As we saw in that Monday night game, having Peterson in the backfield can make any quarterback look good against a bad defense.

Do the Browns have a bad defense? Conventional wisdom says yes. Cleveland was 27th against the run and 26h versus the pass, and could not get any pressure on the quarterback last year. However, those numbers are a bit skewed because the Browns simply quit on Romeo Crennel late in the year. The Browns maintain a lot of holes defensively, but they also have studs like Shaun Rogers (who is now more comfortable in the 3-4), D’Qwell Jackson and Eric Wright. Cleveland’s stop unit was impressive against the Titans and Lions this preseason; they shut down Chris Johnson and forced Matthew Stafford into a couple of turnovers.

Now, I’m not saying that Cleveland will be able to put the clamps on Adrian Peterson; I just think the Browns will be able to get the Vikings to punt somewhat often, or turn the ball over once or twice in this contest.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns received some bad news when they learned that the Williams Wall wouldn’t be suspended. As long as rookie James Davis is in the backfield, Cleveland will be able to run the ball this season behind a very good offensive line. Unfortunately, that won’t be the case here, as the Vikings will shut down the Browns’ ground attack with the Williams Wall clogging the trenches.

Despite the lack of a running game, I still think the Browns will be able to move the chains. Both Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are capable signal-callers, while Minnesota’s secondary is pretty mediocre. Braylon Edwards is in his contract year, so even though he had a few rocky instances this preseason, I’m expecting maximum effort out of him. James Davis, meanwhile, will be an effective weapon for Quinn/Anderson out of the backfield.

Cleveland’s ability to sustain drives will be dependant on Joe Thomas’ ability to keep Jared Allen out of the backfield. Allen is arguably the top defensive end in the NFL, but Thomas isn’t exactly a turnstile either. This will be an exciting matchup to watch, and I think both guys will be able to get the best of each other throughout the course of this game.

RECAP: With Dallas favored by six at Tampa Bay and San Diego favored by nine in Oakland, why is this spread only four? The public is pounding the Vikings like they already know the final score of the game.

Every year, the first week of the season provides us with one trap game. I believe this is it. Favre hasn’t even been on the team for more than a month, yet he’s just going to stroll into Cleveland and put four touchdowns on the board like he’s been with the Vikings for years? I don’t think so. The Browns were 4-12 last year, but they were also 10-6 in 2007, so they are not as bad as their 2008 record indicates.

Unless I’m completely missing something, this one has “trap game” written all over it. I’m going with Cleveland to come away with a straight-up victory.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found yet.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No one, and I mean no one is betting on the Browns.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 95% (190,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Vikings are 7-10 ATS in outdoor games under Brad Childress.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Vikings 16
Browns +4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 40 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Vikings 34, Browns 20

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Line: Colts by 7. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Colts -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Colts -7.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week’s edition:

How are you today? I hope you are fine. If so thank be to God almigthy. please excuse me, I saw your contact email while browsing through the internet so I decided to contact you despite that I have not seen you in person. It will be my pleasure to communicate with you. My name is Mary Brown, 23 years from Liberia in West Africa. I am single girl looking for honest and nice person. Somebody who care and fear God whom I can partner with. I don’t care about your colour or ethnicity.

I would like to know you more, most especially what you like and what you dislike.I’m sending you this beautiful mail, with a wish for much happiness. I am looking forward to hear from.

Thanks and God bless.

Love from,
Miss Mary

Very nice, sexy time. A sexy but “fear God” time. Do spammers really think you’re going to fall for this crap? And way to sound pretentious. Beautiful mail, my a**.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Some teams just match up well against superior squads. There’s a reason the Jaguars always play the Colts tough, and it’s because Jacksonville beats up Indianapolis’ weak defensive interior by playing smash-mouth football.

The Colts made an attempt to beef up their defensive tackle rotation by drafting Fili Moala. However, Moala is just a rookie, so he could be overpowered by a healthy Jacksonville offensive interior. Maurice Jones-Drew always destroys the Colts, and I wouldn’t expect anything different here.

With a sound running game going, David Garrard will have some play-action opportunities to locate Torry Holt and a re-energized Troy Williamson downfield. When in trouble, Garrard can scramble for a first down or set up a screen to Jones-Drew; I don’t see Indianapolis forcing Jacksonville into too many punts.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Of course, the Colts aren’t going to punt much either. The Jaguar teams of old used to be able to shut down the run, but things have changed ever since Marcus Stroud defected for Buffalo. Jacksonville is now just a mediocre team versus the rush, so you could see Joseph Addai and Donald Brown breaking a few big gains.

Jacksonville’s greatest defensive liability is against the pass, where the team ranked 31st last year. The secondary could be even worse in 2009; Sean Considine is undoubtedly the worst starting safety in the NFL, while Brian Williams was recently cut. Williams was vastly overpaid, but happened to be a decent player. The Jaguars are incredibly thin in the secondary without him.

The Jaguars didn’t have anyone with more than four sacks last year. That’ll change with Derrick Harvey in his second season, but Peyton Manning will still have a clean pocket and all the time in the world to locate Anthony Gonzalez, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.

RECAP: These Jacksonville-Indianapolis games are always close. As written below, 12 of the last 14 meetings have been decided by eight points or less. As you might expect, the Colts have won most of them (10-4), but the important thing is whether or not Jacksonville can cover. Based on that first stat and the fact that Jack Del Rio teams play well as underdogs, I’d say they can.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Jaguars hate the Colts more than anything. The Colts could be looking ahead to battling the Dolphins and Cardinals, making this a BREATHER ALERT.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

It really shocks me that the public isn’t pounding the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 68% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: 12 of the last 14 meetings decided by 8 points or less (Colts 10-4).

Divisional Dog of Seven: Jack Del Rio is 5-1 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Jaguars are 13-8 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Colts are 3-5 ATS at Lucas Oil Field.

Opening Line: Colts -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Jaguars 20
Jaguars +7 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 45 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Colts 14, Jaguars 12

Detroit Lions (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Line: Saints by 13.5. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Saints -9.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Saints -11.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Saints.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

In addition to an E-mail of the Week, I’m also going to post a Video of the Week. I started this feature last year, but it ultimately failed. However, a new season gives me hope that I’ll find 17 funny/interesting videos to share with you.

You may have all seen this one – it has a million views – but even if you have, it’s fun to listen to over and over. I have a recording device on my computer that lets me capture any sound and turn it into an MP3. I put this on a CD and played it at my birthday party a month ago. I hoped everyone would get a kick out of it. Unfortunately, everyone was too drunk to figure out what it was. It was a sad, sad day. Nevertheless, take a listen.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The only question here is if the Saints will score less than 50 points. Jim Schwartz and the new front office are moving the Lions in a good direction, but the team is still at least a year away from being able to compete with the likes of New Orleans.

Detroit’s secondary stinks and doesn’t have prayer of containing Drew Brees and all of his weapons. I also doubt the Lions will be able to put any sort of pressure on Brees. I like Cliff Avril, and I think he might reach 10 sacks this year, but even without Jammal Brown, the Saints have one of the top offensive lines in the league. Filling in for Brown, Jermon Bushrod has done a great job this preseason.

Speaking of Avril, I laughed at a recent announcement that said he’d be starting at left defensive end. Avril is only 250 pounds, so he’ll be washed away against the run. The Saints may not have Pierre Thomas for this contest (he says he’s questionable), but it won’t matter because Reggie Bush and Mike Bell will rip right through Detroit’s putrid defense.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions announced Monday that Matthew Stafford will be the starter. Stafford is unbelievably talented, so unless the Lions screw up, he’s going to have a phenomenal career. However, I wouldn’t have gone with Stafford this early because he’ll have no protection from his offensive line. Left tackle Jeff Backus should have been upgraded.

New Orleans’ defense is underrated. Starting defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant were hurt last year, but they are now healthy. It looks like they’ll also be in the lineup, as their StarCaps suspension is currently in appeal. Smith, Grant and the newly acquired Bobby McCray will apply tons of pressure on Stafford, who could be coaxed into several turnovers.

Stafford has Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith at his disposal, which will help a ton. The Lions will score some points in this game, unlike last year’s humiliating 42-7 loss at New Orleans. However, the difference will be New Orleans’ pressure, Stafford’s poor pass protection and a turnover battle that the Saints should easily win.

RECAP: The Lions will be better this year, but New Orleans provides a tough matchup for them. Matthew Stafford lacks the experience and offensive line to get into a shootout with one of the top teams in the league.

I’m keeping this at one unit because I’m worried about something. The Saints crushed these Lions last year and they have a matchup against the Eagles next week. It’s possible that New Orleans could overlook this Detroit squad and show up flat. Then again, this is the first game of the season, so they could be prepared.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

Definite LOOK-AHEAD ALERT for the Saints; they have the Eagles next week, so they may treat this like another preseason game. It’s the first game of the year though.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

This line is pretty high, which initially kept the public from jumping all over the favorite. So much for that.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 82% (149,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Lions are 6-2 ATS on the road since 2008.

Lions were 10-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Rod Marinelli.

Saints are 23-38 ATS at home since 2001 (5-2 in 2008).

Saints are 16-27 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Saints -11.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Saints 45, Lions 17
Saints -13.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 49 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Saints 45, Lions 27

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Line: Cowboys by 4.5. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Cowboys -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Cowboys -6.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

I’ve gotten plenty of e-mails and Facebook messages from people asking me when Emmitt on the Brink will be back. Well, I have two pieces of good news for you. First, the premier of Emmitt on the Brink: Season Two will be posted next Friday (Sept. 18). Also, I’ve done a lot of writing over the summer, and I plan on expanding Emmitt on the Brink and making it into a book. I’ve delved into Emmitt’s thought process at the 2014 NFL Draft, his appearance on Eating Cereal With the Stars, his attempt at signing free agents, and much more. My goal is to have the book finished by Summer 2010. Stay tuned for details.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: From a pure mechanics perspective, this is the worst matchup of the week. Then again, you can probably say that about any game involving Byron Sandwich this season.

I have no idea why the team wanted Leftwich as the starter. Do they players get extra money for losing? Sandwich is terribly inaccurate and horribly inconsistent. Worst of all, he has the slowest arm release known to man.

So, why is this an awful matchup for him? Well, considering how awesome DeMarcus Ware is, Sandwich is going to be sacked a lot.

Initially this summer, I thought Tampa Bay would be a tough matchup for the Cowboys because Dallas struggles to stop the run (21st in 2008). Unfortunately, the Buccaneers’ interior offensive line hasn’t been as sturdy as projected, so they could struggle to open up running lanes for Raheem Morris’ dynamic 2-2-1 running back rotation. If I’m right, and the Buccaneers are in plenty of third-and-longs, Ware is going to eat Sandwich alive. Ware is going to eat Sandwich… I made a funny.

DALLAS OFFENSE: My No. 1 concern with Dallas’ offense isn’t Terrell Owens’ absence. Owens was not nearly as explosive last year and he continued to drop a ton of balls. My biggest issue is left tackle Flozell Adams, who turned 34 in May. I’m not sure Adams can hold up the entire the year, and even Gaines Adams might have some luck getting around him.

Luckily for the Cowboys, the rest of Tampa Bay’s defensive line pretty much stinks. Marion Barber and Felix Jones should be able to rip off five yards per carry, setting up play-action opportunities for Tony Romo. Aside from Barrett Ruud and Aqib Talib, Tampa Bay’s back seven is a mess. Romo will have a field day torching the Buccaneer secondary.

RECAP: I’m not a fan of the Cowboys this year, but I hate the Buccaneers’ chances even more. Tampa Bay is unquestionably one of the three worst teams in the NFL.

However, I would not recommend betting Dallas. First, there is way too much action coming in on them. Second, you’re not going to make a ton of money gambling on road favorites. And third, I do not trust the Cowboys to come into this game completely focused. They take on the Giants and Panthers in Weeks 2 and 3. Wade Phillips is a buffoon and may not have his team prepared to play.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

LOOK-AHEAD ALERT for the Cowboys. They play the Giants and Panthers in Weeks 2 and 3. How can they take the suddenly young Buccaneers seriously? Then again, they have to prove themselves again after last year’s horrendous finish.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

I think the public has realized that the Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the league. If you got the Cowboys at -3, congratulations.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 86% (174,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Tony Romo is 18-8 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 6-1 ATS as a starter in September.

Tony Romo is 10-6 ATS on the road.

Buccaneers are 13-4 ATS as a home underdog since 1996.

Buccaneers are 10-7 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cowboys 35, Buccaneers 3
Cowboys -4.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 40 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 21

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 2.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Panthers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Pick.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

WalterFootball.com received some sad news this offseason when ESPN fired Emmitt. Fortunately, they hired Herm Edwards.

I wasn’t completely convinced I could make fun of Herm until I heard him take a painful stab at being the color commentator for the Eagles Television Network. Here are some of his quotes:

1. After a QB Dog Killer interception: “This is good. This is good. This is good. This is good for Michael Vick. He knows it. It’s good!”

2. After a Jason Babin sack: “Here’s the key now! Here’s the key! Uhh… ummm…”

3. After a poor play by QB Dog Killer: “That’s good! That’s good! That’s OK! That’s good! That’s OK!”

I can tell that this is going to be an exciting year.

As you may have noticed, I don’t like QB Dog Killer. In fact, I named the Philadelphia Eagles the Jerks of the Year, and I moved the team way down in my NFL Power Rankings.

Am I biased in doing so? Perhaps, but signing QB Dog Killer was a horrific move from a football perspective. Let’s list the reasons:

1. The Eagles did not work out QB Dog Killer prior to signing him. They had no idea if he could still run fast or throw hard. That’s one of the reasons why the move was so idiotic. And because the Eagles have made themselves out to be a classless organization, they can’t suddenly cut him because that would make them look even worse. QB Dog Killer was AWFUL this preseason. He will never be a starting-caliber NFL quarterback ever again.

2. So what, you may ask? What if the Eagles only use him on gimmick and gadget plays? Well, they tried that in their third preseason game, and it failed miserably. Philadelphia’s offense sputtered on every drive that QB Dog Killer took the field because the team lacked cohesion. Even after that contest, Donovan McNabb told the media that he was disappointed by the offense’s rhythm.

3. When McNabb threw an interception in the third quarter of the penultimate preseason game, the scumbags in the stands of Lincoln Financial Field chanted, “We Want Vick!” Though his leadership qualities are terrible, McNabb is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. With QB Dog Killer on the roster, there will be a huge quarterback controversy if McNabb has one or two bad games. When is the last time a team with a quarterback controversy won the Super Bowl? Exactly.

4. About 10 years ago, the Philadelphia Flyers signed a convicted child molester (his name is escaping me). Flyers general manager/moronic clown Bobby Clarke thought he deserved a second chance. Having him in the locker room dragged down the entire squad. It wasn’t until he got into trouble again and was kicked off the team that the Flyers picked it up and eventually reached the playoffs.

You don’t add demented psychopaths to your team and expect to get away with it karmically. Perhaps now we know the reason why the Eagles have suffered so many injuries this preseason.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: QB Dog Killer won’t play in this game, so no need to worry here. Someone who will play is Brian Westbrook, who was out all preseason with an ankle injury.

This matchup is all about ineptness. Philadelphia’s offensive line is pretty terrible. Julius Peppers will easily dance around fat slob extraordinaire Jason “Derrick Coleman” Peters. Meanwhile, no one is sure if Shawn Andrews is healthy enough to play effectively. On the other hand, middle linebacker Jon Beason is hurt, and one of Carolina’s defensive tackles, Ma’ake Kemoeatu, is out for the year, so the Panthers will be soft up the middle.

With Beason likely out of the lineup (there’s a small chance he’ll play), Carolina’s defensive strength is in the secondary. I like McNabb’s chances with DeSean Jackson downfield and Westbrook as a safety-valve option, but that may not matter if McNabb doesn’t have enough time in the pocket.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s obvious what Carolina’s offensive strength is because Jake Delhomme sucks. DeAngelo Williams has shown this preseason that last year’s performance was no fluke. Unfortunately, Williams will be going up against a stout Philadelphia run defense that was ranked seventh in that department a season ago.

If the Eagles can put the clamps on Williams, they should be able to neutralize Carolina’s offense. Once again, Delhomme sucks and can easily turn the ball over six times. Philadelphia has an opportunistic defense, so if Delhomme is forced into several third-and-long situations, it could mean trouble for Carolina.

RECAP: I loved the Eagles over the Panthers earlier in the summer. When Stewart Bradley was lost for the year, I liked the Eagles over the Panthers a lot. When I saw how fat and lethargic Jason “Derrick Coleman” Peters was, I liked the Eagles over the Panthers a little bit. When greedy owner Jeffrey Lurie signed QB Dog Killer? That was it for me.

This is one of two games I can’t read. On one hand, the Panthers are vastly overrated and won’t have much success without Jon Beason. On the other hand, Philadelphia’s offensive line stinks and the team will suffer with QB Dog Killer on the roster. My advice is the same I would have given the Eagles about QB Dog Killer: Stay away.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
Big game for both teams. No psychological edge found yet, unless you want to count that the Eagles screwed themselves karmically this year.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The public is all over the classless Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 70% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 56-35 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 34-21 ATS on the road since 2001.

Panthers are 27-19 ATS as an underdog the previous 46 instances.

Panthers are 20-27 ATS at home since 2003.

Jake Delhomme is 23-8 ATS as an underdog in his career.

Opening Line: Panthers -1.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 84 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Eagles 20, Panthers 17
Eagles -2.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Under 43.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Eagles 38, Panthers 10

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 12.5. Total: 36.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Ravens -11.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Ravens -13.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some college football notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Just when you thought Mark May couldn’t get any more obnoxious, he had to wear those stupid grandmother glasses this weekend. I don’t think I can name 10 people in the history of this planet more irritating than May. Gilbert Gottfried is one. Sean Salisbury is another (what happened to him?) Janeane Garofalo has to be one. Stuart Scott perhaps. But other than that, no one.

By the way, I loved it when ESPN was showing highlights of the Notre Dame-Nevada blowout. Lou Holtz, the studio’s senile old man, was happily reminiscing about his glory from years past, yet May kept badgering him that Jimmy Clausen’s performance meant nothing because Nevada had one of the worst pass defenses last year. Yet, May picked Nevada to win the game! Hopefully the same aliens that abducted Salisbury can eliminate of May as well.

2. I can’t stand it when college football pundits criticize teams for scheduling creampuffs and cupcakes. See, I’d like the major schools to play tough games, but because there is no playoff, the goal for these teams is to go undefeated; not prove themselves. Ohio State nearly lost to Navy. Meanwhile, Oklahoma scheduled a tough BYU program, and because Sam Bradford went down, their season is pretty much over. Yeah, good call, Bob Stoops. Next time, play Northwest Oklahoma Tech, win 84-0, and give your players a chance to a championship in this ridiculous, non-playoff system.

3. Iowa had to block two field goals at the end of their game to beat Northern Iowa. If you missed it, Iowa blocked the first kick, but because it didn’t go past the line of scrimmage and it wasn’t fourth down, Northern Iowa was allowed to re-kick.

Dumbest rule ever. If you kick the ball away, that should be it. You’re relinquishing possession. Players can’t make a split-second decision and figure out whether or not the ball crossed the line of scrimmage. What if it did, and trying to recover it allows Northern Iowa to come away with the ball after it was touched? We all saw that Leon Lett replay in that Thanksgiving game… I’d tell the NCAA to look into this, but they’re a bunch of douche bags who have their head so far up their a**es that they don’t listen to reason.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: This is going to be fun. I have the Chiefs dead last in my 2009 NFL Power Rankings for many reasons – one of which is the quarterback position.

The Chiefs dealt away a second-round pick for Matt Cassel and gave him more than $60 million. I laughed throughout the course of this entire process. Cassel can do some good things – he can scramble and throw accurately in the short passing game – but he’s a spread-shotgun system quarterback with no arm strength. Aside from his height, he’s really no different than Tyler Thigpen.

Of course, Thigpen was able to lead the Chiefs on a covering spree toward the end of the 2008 season. But Thigpen had been with the Chiefs for a couple of years and largely was going against soft defenses. Baltimore will not allow any of this nonsense.

Cassel, who is only 50-50 to face the Ravens (as of Monday evening) won’t stand much of a chance behind Kansas City’s horrendous offensive line. Cassel took a lot of sacks in New England, so imagine what will happen this season. Cassel won’t have the services of a solid running game either; Baltimore will put the clamps on that without much effort.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: One of the reasons I love the Ravens so much this year is their underrated offense. Joe Flacco really looks like he’s ready to take the next step and enter into the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks. Ray Rice will be a dangerous weapon out of the backfield for Flacco. Derrick Mason, despite nearly retiring, appears as though he’s poised for another big season.

Most importantly, the Ravens have one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. This matches up well against Kansas City’s joke of a defensive front. Baltimore will easily push around rookie Tyson Jackson and 3-4 misfit Glenn Dorsey, opening up huge lanes for Rice and giving Flacco an eternity to throw the ball. The Chiefs mustered 10 sacks last year, so expecting them to even get one in this contest is pretty far-fetched.

RECAP: According to my 2009 NFL Power Rankings, this is a matchup between the No. 2 and the No. 32 teams. Unless Flacco and several members of the offensive line go down with injuries, I really can’t envision this game being remotely close.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Ravens have the Chargers next week (LOOK-AHEAD ALERT). The Chiefs suck at life right now, so Baltimore may treat like this a fifth preseason game. Then again, this is the season opener…

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

This action shockingly evened out, but now Baltimore is getting all the money again.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 80% (159,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Chiefs are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Chiefs were 6-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Herm Edwards.

Opening Line: Ravens -9.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 80 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 41, Chiefs 0
Ravens -12.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 36.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Survivor Pick (0-0)
Ravens 38, Chiefs 24

New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
Line: Texans by 4. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Texans -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Texans -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Texans.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

More college football notes:

4. One rule the NCAA has installed is its new handshake policy, where players on both teams have to shake hands before each game. What is this, Little League Baseball? This is football, where tempers flare and players hit each other as hard as possible. Not only is this a futile attempt to curb violence, it seems to me like it can only escalate it. Players from California probably don’t know anyone from Maryland, but having them all gather in the middle of the field can only lead to trash-talking and name-calling. This certainly didn’t work in the Oregon-Boise State game, where LaGarrette Blount went completely berserk and debacled a trash-talking Boise State player with a cheap shot.

5. Oklahoma State’s offense is stupid. Don’t send me hate mail, Cowboy fans; I didn’t say the offense sucks. I said it’s stupid. Watching all 11 players on offense stand up and look toward the sideline is ridiculous. Watching head coach Mike Gundy and his lackeys wave around dumb cards is even more absurd. Real men don’t wave around silly cards and make themselves look like jacka**es, Gundy. Perhaps you should treat your players like men and call plays normally.

6. If you’re not aware, there is a consensus college football 25 poll associated with this Web site. Hunter Ansley of ESPN the Magazine and DraftZoo.com has organized it. Along with myself, Hunter and Matt McGuire, another guy from ESPN, a guy from Scout.com and several other prominent Web sites are represented in this poll. So, if there’s an undefeated mid-major and a bunch of one-loss major-conference teams, guess who’s going to be No. 1? The day is mine, muhahahaha!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans’ offensive line hasn’t exactly played lights out this preseason, so you can imagine the smile on Matt Schaub’s face once he learned that Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace, the Jets’ top two pass-rushers, were suspended for this contest for smoking weed and violating the substance policy, respectively.

Without Ellis and Pace, the Jets lose 15 of their 41 sacks from 2008. Even worse, their absence moves Vernon Gholston into the starting lineup. As bad as Houston’s offensive line has been, Gholston is worse.

With presumably all the time in the world to throw, Matt Schaub will torch the Jets’ secondary. I love Darrelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes, but I’ve watched Lito Sheppard for many years in Philadelphia to know that he sucks. Sheppard can come up with interceptions, a reason why he has made the Pro Bowl before, but Sheppard can’t cover anyone. Whomever he’s matched up against will have a big day.

Steve Slaton won’t get much on the ground against Kris Jenkins and New York’s defensive front, but he’ll provide Schaub with a potent weapon out of the backfield. I can’t foresee Houston having much trouble offensively in this contest.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Texans made some defensive upgrades this offseason, so I was discouraged to see Adrian Peterson break a long run on his first carry last Monday night.

Houston was 23rd versus the rush in 2008, and it doesn’t look like that has improved much. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington will be able to move the chains on the ground, setting up Mark Sanchez with short-yardage situations.

Sanchez played at USC, so I doubt playing on the road in his first NFL regular-season game will faze him much. However, Sanchez enjoyed great pass protection as a Trojan, but that may not be the case here. D’Brickashaw Ferguson gave up only four sacks in 2008, but he’s not an elite left tackle, as evidenced by the 23.25 sacks he surrendered in 2006 and 2007. He’ll be matched up against Mario Williams, and I’ll award the advantage to the defensive end.

RECAP: Most defenses, including New York’s, need all hands on deck to stop Houston’s dynamic scoring attack, especially in Reliant Stadium. Unfortunately, the Jets will not be able to enjoy that luxury with their top two pass-rushers out.

The Texans are a very good home team and Mark Sanchez is making his first NFL start. I like Sanchez, but asking him to match Houston point for point without a legitimate No. 1 receiver is a bit too much this early in his career.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

This used to have equal action, but that has changed over the past few days.

Percentage of money on Houston: 73% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -4.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 31, Jets 17
Texans -4.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 43.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Jets 24, Texans 7

Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games
Redskins at Giants, 49ers at Cardinals, Rams at Seahawks, Bears at Packers, Bills at Patriots, Chargers at Raiders

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)