NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)

NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 14, 2:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

Washington Redskins (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
Line: Giants by 6.5. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Giants -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Giants -6.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Giants.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

If you’ve been following my 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Thursday morning each week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: All the talk this offseason from Giants detractors is the weak receiving corps. With Plaxico Burress gone, Eli Manning lacks a true No. 1 wideout, unless Hakeem Nicks can eventually step up (I think he can). But people are so enamoured by the position because it’s really prevalent in fantasy football. In reality, the quarterback and offensive line are much more important.

Eli Manning isn’t the most glamorous quarterback in the world, but he converts third downs and wins games in fourth quarters. Meanwhile, New York’s offensive line is the best in the NFC. Even with the addition of Albert Haynesworth (whom I’m convinced will not give the Redskins 100 percent in the wake of his $100 million contract), the Giants should be able to push Washington’s front seven around to create running lanes for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.

With Jacobs and Bradshaw moving the chains, Manning will be able to convert third-and-short situations with his barrage of mediocre receivers. I really like Nicks, but I don’t expect him to be much of a factor until the second half of this season.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Along with owning a winning quarterback and an elite offensive line, the Giants have an impenetrable defensive front. The front four will easily win the battle in this game, as Washington’s front five was a liability last season.

In two battles against the Giants in 2008, Clinton Portis mustered only 105 yards on 34 carries. New York will once again put the clamps on Washington’s running game, forcing Jason Campbell to convert third downs. Call me crazy, but I don’t completely trust Campbell with Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka in his face.

RECAP: As far as I’m concerned, the Giants are the class of the NFC. They shouldn’t have a problem beating the Redskins again. Washington could make the playoffs this season, but as we’ve seen with its 16-7 and 23-7 losses to the Giants last year, the team simply can’t match up with New York. PICK CHANGE: I have to give Matt McGuire credit for this – he pointed out to me that backup quarterback Andre’ Woodson just went from the Giants to the Redskins. Woodson knows all of New York’s audibles, so that gives Washington a major advantage in this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big rivalry. No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
The Giants have been picked by many to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on New York: 62% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Giants have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Giants are 12-17 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 29 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -6.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Giants 16, Redskins 13
Redskins +6.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Under 37 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Giants 23, Redskins 17

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
Line: Cardinals by 6. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Cardinals -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Cardinals -9.

Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). Unfortunately, I have bad news to report. My contact in the league sent me the wrong information, so I had Bo-Bo’s team all wrong. The guy I thought was Bo-Bo wasn’t really Bo-Bo. So here is Bo-Bo’s starting lineup:

QB: Trent Edwards (6th-round pick); RB1: Michael Turner; RB2: Frank Gore; WR1: Terrell Owens; WR2: Kevin Curtis (ouch); WR3: Joey Galloway (LOL); TE: Chris Cooley; DEF: Minnesota; K: David Akers (12th-round pick).

This season, I’ll keep you apprised of Bo-Bo and Phat Hair Bro’s fantasy teams. It’ll be a magical season full of ugly defeats, but it’ll be fun.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Speaking of ugly, Kurt Warner’s throwing motion was a hideous thing to watch this preseason. Warner, a 38-year-old man with a new contract, just had hip surgery. Warner has only had one healthy 16-game season since 2001, and has simply not looked any good in this exhibition campaign. In four contests, Warner is 24-of-46 (52.2 completion), with 320 yards, no touchdowns, three picks and three fumbles.

Though the 49ers didn’t reach the playoffs last season, they were able to rank 10th against the rush and 13th versus the pass. Arizona will run the ball better this season with Chris Wells in the backfield, but that doesn’t mean their improved ground attack will show up here. San Francisco did a phenomenal job limiting opponents to 3.8 yards per carry in 2008.

One other area of concern is some potential rust between Warner and two of his receivers. Neither Anquan Boldin nor Steve Breaston has not had much time to work with Warner recently because of injuries. Breaston was hampered by a PCL, while Boldin has missed time with a tweaked hamstring. Both are expected to play, but hamstrings have been known to linger, so it potentially could slow Boldin down.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Cardinals were right there with the 49ers in run defense, as the teams were both ranked 10th against it. However, Arizona lost starting defensive end Antonio Smith, so containing Frank Gore and Glen Coffee could be somewhat of an issue.

Fortunately for Arizona, it doesn’t have to worry about any sort of an aerial attack. Shaun Hill played well toward the end of the 2008 campaign, but I don’t know what happened to him. He looks like he aged about 50 years. I’ve watched every snap of his this preseson, and Hill looks no better than the 2008 version of Brad Johnson. And the sad thing is, despite how poor Hill has played, he’s still better than Alex Smith.

In eight starts last year, Hill took 23 sacks. The 49ers tried to improve the offensive line by signing Marvel Smith – a move that had “fail” written all over it. Smith is now retired, leaving a gaping hole at right tackle. Meanwhile, left tackle Joe Staley permitted 8.5 sacks in 2008. Hill will be under pressure constantly in this contest.

RECAP: As you can tell, I’m not particularly fond of either team. However, I do love a side.

The Cardinals are overrated based on their name. They went to the Super Bowl last year, so that’s the last thing most people remember. The public likes Arizona; as you can tell below, nearly three-quarters of the money in Vegas is on the host. Yet, the Cardinals are just -6.5 and the line is not moving up.

Super Bowl losers have had a difficult time rebounding the following season. Everyone knows that. But they really tend to struggle in their first game, where they are just 3-12 against the spread in the previous 15 years. I’ll stick with a number like that; it’s worked for me in the past.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

Super Bowl losers suck in their first game the following season (check stats below). They just can’t recover emotionally.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 52% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: Cardinals have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Divisional Dog of Seven: Mike Singletary and Mike Nolan were/are 6-2 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+. ???

Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 3-12 ATS in their first game the following season.

Opening Line: Cardinals -6.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 26, 49ers 24
49ers +6 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 46 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
49ers 20, Cardinals 16

St. Louis Rams (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
Line: Seahawks by 7.5. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Seahawks -9.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Seahawks -9.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

This is a friendly reminder that you can win $350 in the WalterFootball.com 2009 NFL Survivor Pool. To enter, just click the link. Entry is free, so all you need to do is register for the forum, make your pick and have 15 forum posts by noon Eastern on Sunday.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I nearly made this my Survivor Pick. In fact, I probably would have if it wasn’t for the Ravens having such an easy game against the Chiefs.

Matt Hasselbeck is healthy again, which is a huge problem for the Rams because an injured Hasselbeck was able to thrash them 37-13 at home last year (my September Pick of the Month).

St. Louis’ defense is terrible. It ranked 31st against the run and 30th versus the pass in 2008. Chris Long’s progression and the addition of James Laurinaitis will help, but the Rams have way too many holes on their defense to be able to contain any aspect of Seattle’s offense.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Seattle’s defense is pretty underrated. The team couldn’t get any consistent pressure on the quarterback last year and thus struggled against the pass. However, Patrick Kerney, who played just nine games last season, is healthy again. The Seahawks also added Cory Redding and rookie Aaron Curry to a front seven that is now pretty formidable.

Marc Bulger is likely to get the start, but as of Monday, he hasn’t been able to take any snaps under center (broken pinkie). Whether Bulger is under center or in the shotgun, he’s going to be sacked a ton in this contest. Jason Smith is not ready to be a starting NFL offensive tackle.

The Rams could have some success moving the chains early with Steven Jackson, but I expect Seattle to score often, which will put the Rams in a huge deficit and make them one-dimensional.

RECAP: This game has “blowout” written all over it. Last year, I used Seattle favored by a similar spread at home over the reeling Scott Linehan Rams as my September Pick of the Month. I’m tempted to do so again based on the talent disparity, but that 2008 Seattle squad was desperate for a win after starting 0-2. Plus, the public wasn’t all over them like they are in this contest.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found yet.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Wow, a lot of money came in on the Rams on Thursday afternoon. St. Louis is now a publicly backed underdog.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 59% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Seahawks have won the last 8 meetings.

Rams are 19-36 ATS in road games since 2001.

Seahawks are 12-3 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Sehawks 30, Rams 10
Seahawks -7.5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 41 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Seahawks 28, Rams 0

Chicago Bears (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)
Line: Packers by 4.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Packers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Packers -3.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sunday. Jerks of the Week for Sept. 7, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Forum Spammers. 2) Pretentious Italian Restaurants. 3) Bertucci’s Waitresses.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: If there was a preseason MVP award, it would go to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was prolific this exhibition campaign, scoring on nearly every drive. In four games, Rodgers was neither sacked nor forced into a turnover. Once Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, retire, we’ll probably be looking at the NFL’s best quarterback along with Ben Roethlisberger.

Chicago’s defensive numbers were skewed last year because the offense was inefficient in the second half of the season and couldn’t sustain drives. The Bears have a very good defense that will be able to generate more pressure this year. I just don’t think it’ll come in this game. Unlike last year when both Green Bay offensive tackles suffered knee injuries, Rodgers has a healthy front line protecting him.

The Packers won’t have much success running the ball – Chicago was eighth versus the rush in 2008 – but I’m not sure there is really any defense that can contain Rodgers and all of his weapons.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I was concerned that it might take a while for Jay Cutler to gel with his receivers. Cutler struggled in the first preseason game, but once Orlando Pace, Matt Forte and Greg Olsen came back to the lineup, Cutler looked as though he had been with the Bears for years.

It’s tough to tell because it was just the preseason, but it looks like Green Bay’s defense has improved. Nevertheless, the Packers were 25th against the rush in 2008, so Matt Forte should be able to set up Cutler with short-yardage situations.

Forte, a dynamic weapon out of the backfield, gained just 3.9 yards per carry last season. That number will be much higher in 2009 because defenses will have to worry about Cutler’s ability to attack every part of the field. Cutler should have a big night in Lambeau.

RECAP: In the Eagles-Panthers write-up, I mentioned there were two games I couldn’t read. This is the second one.

I feel this is too close to call. On one hand, I believe Chicago is the better team and maintains the superior defense. On the other hand, the Packers are at home and Aaron Rodgers has more experience with his receivers. As sharp as Cutler looked this preseason, he’s still learning his teammates’ tendencies.

I think this game will go down to the wire. It very well could be decided by a field goal, so I’m taking the underdog. I don’t know what I would have done if the line stayed at -3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Huge rivalry. No psychological edge here.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

It’s amazing how much action has moved to Green Bay after it being pretty even earlier in the week.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 71% (142,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Bears have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Clear, 58 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Bears 24
Bears +4.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Over 46.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Packers 21, Bears 15

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 11.5. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Patriots -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Patriots -11.
Monday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

I’m probably in the minority, but I’m sad to see Tony Kornheiser off the Monday Night Football coverage. Like Kornheiser, I’m a sportswriter, so I saw things from his perspective and I really appreciated what he brought to the table. I hate it when people say, “He doesn’t know anything about football – he never played!” Well, neither did you, douche bag.

With Jon Gruden in the booth, the telecast is going to be a bit more annoying. Here’s a preview of how it’ll sound:

Mike Tirico: Welcome to Monday Night Football! Tonight, we have the Patriots versus the Bills. Joining me tonight are Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden. Jon, the Patriots look like they’re geared up for another Super Bowl run.

Jon Gruden: Who cares about the Patriots? I wanna talk about the Wildcat offense, Jaws! The Wildcat is an unstoppable force and Tim Tebow will be the best quarterback evarrrr!

Ron Jaworski: Oh gawrsh, not again! The Wildcat will never work, ha-hyuck!

Gruden: Yes it will! You line up the runnin’ back in the shotgun and you move the man in motion! Then, the defense doesn’t know what you’re gonna do next, Jaws! The Wildcat. Is unstoppable.

Jaworski: This will never work in the National Football League. If you have a defense with a lack of discipline, a lack of communication and a lack of gap control, gawrsh, anything will work, Coach! But a good defense in the National Football League will not be fooled, ha-hyuck!

Gruden: Look at this replay here. Ronnie Brown in the shotgun. Ricky Williams in motion. Chad Pennington split out wide. The ball is snapped and Ronnie Brown runs for a 9-yard gain. Now imagine if you had Tim Tebow back there, Jaws.

Tirico: Touchdown, Patriots! Hey guys, want to chime in about this game?

Gruden: I wanna talk about the Wildcat some more, Jaws!

Can Kornheiser please come back?

BUFFALO OFFENSE: If Dick Jauron entered a contest to see which coach could assemble the worst offensive line ever, he deserves a huge trophy and a gold star. I don’t know what Jauron was thinking throughout this offseason. Perhaps he thought that five bad/inexperienced linemen would all cancel each other out and Trent Edwards would have the best pass protection ever.

Even without Richard Seymour, New England’s defensive front will dominate the line of scrimmage. The Bills won’t be able to run the ball with Fred Jackson, which will force Trent Edwards into long-yardage situations.

Edwards hasn’t had much game experience with Terrell Owens, who has been hobbled by an injury for most of the preseason. Owens is overrated to begin with because he’s not explosive anymore and he drops a ton of balls. He may not even get many passes in this contest because Edwards will be pressured throughout the game.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Bills couldn’t get any pressure on the quarterback last year, so they spent the No. 11 overall pick on Aaron Maybin. I love Maybin for the long haul, but defensive ends have a really tough time transitioning to the NFL. I really doubt Maybin, or any Bills defensive lineman for that matter, will be a factor in this contest.

I’m not going to sugarcoat this for Buffalo fans. The Bills don’t have the defensive talent to keep Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker from hanging 40 on them.

RECAP: I am really annoyed with Bill Belichick right now. I was strongly considering this game as my September NFL Pick of the Month. Then, Richard Seymour was traded…

I wanted to hear what all of the Patriots had to say about this. Of course they made the right comments, but everyone seemed bummed out. Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren, Seymour’s linemates, seemed especially down.

The last time Belichick got rid of a key member of his team a week before the season was 2003. Belichick gave Lawyer Milloy his walking papers. A week later, the Bills (coincidentally) with Milloy as a starter thrashed the Patriots 31-0. That happened to be Buffalo’s sole victory over New England in the last 17 meetings.

The Patriots are still far superior to Buffalo, and I’m definitely not picking the Bills to cover many games this year, but I cannot lay multiple units on this game anymore. Thanks a lot, Bill.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Patriots are on an emotional low with Richard Seymour gone.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

New England seems to be everyone’s favorite team to bet this week besides Dallas. I can’t say I blame the average gambler.

Percentage of money on New England: 92% (254,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 16 of the last 17 meetings.

Divisional Dog of Seven: Dick Jauron is 2-5 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Bills are 17-12 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.

Patriots are 28-13 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 41-32 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Tom Brady is 99-27 as a starter (76-48 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -10.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 65 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Patriots 41, Bills 14
Patriots -11.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 47.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Patriots 25, Bills 24

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)
Line: Chargers by 10. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Chargers -4.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Chargers -6.5.

Monday, 10:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Because I’m always complaining about all of the bad football announcing, people tend to ask me whom I want in the booth. I’ll tell you right now: I want Kevin Reilly as my play-by-play guy, and I want Herm Edwards and Emmitt as my two color commentators.

By now, you guys know about Herm and Emmitt. If you’ve never heard of Reilly, he’s the play-by-play guy on the Eagles Television Network. He might be the most uninformed person when it comes to the NFL in the history of this planet. He broadcasted three games this preseason, and I’ve never heard so many errors or biased remarks in such a short time span. He repeatedly called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones,” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt.” He also referred to the Eagles as “us” or “we” whenever he spoke of them. He also made a habit of constantly interrupting Herm.

Here’s a preview of what that telecast would sound like:

Kevin Reilly: First down Chargers! Philip Rodriguez to Vincent Johnson! I have both on my fantasy team, so hooray for me!

Herm: That’s good now. That’s good. That’s good. That’s good. That’s OK. Oakland’s defense gave up a first down and they’re losing 34-0, but that’s good. It’s OK. They haven’t played in a while. That’s good. That’s OK.

Emmitt: Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterback in the National Conference of Football. Not only is he one of the best quarterback in the conference, he is also one of the best quarterback on the team.

Reilly: Oh, the Los Angeles Raiders just intercepted Paul Rivers! The pick was made by Nnamdi Anderson. That’s not good for my fantasy team, guys.

Emmitt: Sometime, the early worm get the bird, and sometime, the quarterback get intercepted by the doggone defensive player who have a chance to interception the uhh… the ball that go off the quarterback hand not good.

Herm: That’s OK. That’s OK. That’s OK. That’s good. That’s OK. That’s good. That’s good. That’s good. That’s OK. That’s good. That’s OK. Now here’s the key! Here’s the important thing… uhh…

Reilly: We’ll be back right after this!

How glorious would that be? I’d have writing material for the next 80 years.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: When the Raiders traded for Richard Seymour, I finally thought, “Wow, Oakland will actually be able to stop the run and get pressure up the middle.” But as you would expect from anyone going from a winner to Al Davis’ team, Seymour is displeased and will not show up until he gets a new contract.

So, it looks like the Raiders will have the same old scrubs on their defensive line. They managed to acquire Greg Ellis this offseason as a starting defensive end across from Undead Al favorite Trevor Scott. Unfortunately, Ellis is past his prime and will only be a small upgrade over what the Raiders had.

San Diego’s offensive weakness is the right side of its line, but the Raiders don’t have the personnel to take advantage of this. LaDainian Tomlinson is going to have a huge game running through wide-open lanes, setting up Rivers with play-action opportunities. Nnamdi Asomugha will erase Vincent Jackson, but Rivers will still have Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers and Tomlinson/Darren Sproles out of the backfield as dangerous weapons.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders will be able to run the ball against most of their opponents. Their offensive line excels in that department and the team has three solid backs to work with. However, Oakland will struggle to get anything going against a healthy San Diego squad. No one will have much success against Jamal Williams and Luis Castillo.

JaMarcus Russell will be asked to move the chains aerially. That’s going to be disastrous; his front line won’t be able to keep all of San Diego’s pass-rushers out of the backfield, and on the rare occasions that it can, Darrius Heyward-Bey is just going to drop the pass thrown to him anyway.

RECAP: Why does ESPN insist on scheduling Oakland home games for the second half of the opening Monday night double-header every year? The result is always the same; Oakland loses big, the fans boo and throw stuff onto the field, and everyone on various forums and message boards laughs at the Raiders’ ineptness. This year will be no different.

I hate how high this spread is though. I liked it at the opening number of -6.5, but -9 (and -9.5 in some places) is a bit too high for a road favorite. That said, the line won’t seem that high when the Chargers are up 27-3 in the fourth quarter.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found yet.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Lots of money on the Chargers, but this line has soared up three points to compensate.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 86% (201,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won the last 11 meetings.

Raiders are 10-28 ATS at home the previous 38 instances.

Opening Line: Chargers -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Few showers, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Raiders 10
Chargers -10 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 42.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Chargers 24, Raiders 20

Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Titans at Steelers, Dolphins at Falcons, Broncos at Bengals, Vikings at Browns, Jaguars at Colts, Lions at Saints, Cowboys at Buccaneers, Eagles at Panthers, Chiefs at Ravens, Jets at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Cowboys PK, Seahawks -2.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300

Live Dog: Browns +180 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: 49ers +240 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$240

Live Dog: Bears +165 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Game Edge Parlay: Bengals -4, Saints -13, Cowboys -6, Ravens -12.5, Seahawks -8.5, Chargers -9 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

2009 NFL Season Betting Props

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)