NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2009): 9-6-1 (+$700)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,300)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2009): 9-7 (-$240)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2009): 6-10 (-$1,450)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2009): 8-7-1 (-$685)

NFL Picks (2009): 133-102-6 (+$5,935)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 28, 4:45 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games

Detroit Lions (2-12) at San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
Line: 49ers by 14. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): 49ers -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): 49ers -7.5.

Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Jerks of the Week for Dec. 21, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are some of the people I saw at the mall while I was holiday shopping.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Getting right to the news, Jim Schwartz announced that Matthew Stafford is unlikely to play here. He hasn’t named a starter yet, but between Drew Stanton and Daunte Culpepper, does it really matter? I’d prefer Stanton because he likes to run first downs, but both quarterbacks are pretty terrible.

Schwartz will look to lean on Maurice Morris again to “carry” his offense. Morris was solid last week, but San Francisco’s run defense is a lot better than Arizona’s. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance.

With that in mind, Stanton/Culpepper will have to convert long-yardage situations. The 49ers have been shaky against the pass at times this year, but outside of Calvin Johnson, there’s not much to defend here. Plus, they’ll be able to register a few sacks versus Detroit’s anemic offensive line.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It was nice to see the Niners stick with the run last week despite being down. This allowed them to creep within seven points of the Eagles before a late Philly touchdown made the difference 14.

Consistently pounding the rock with Frank Gore will have its benefits here; four of the previous five teams to play the Lions have rushed for 117 yards or more, including the Ravens who accumulated a whopping 308 yards on the ground.

Gore will set up some play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Alex Smith. Detroit has major problems in its secondary, so the 49ers should be able to move the chains with ease.

RECAP: The 49ers are obviously the much better team, but I’m concerned with their mindset here. They had to beat the Eagles to stay alive for the divisional crown. Instead, they lost, which officially knocked them out of the playoff hunt.

I’m not sure how San Francisco bounces back from that, especially against the lowly Lions. What’s their incentive here?

Also, laying 12 points with the 49ers is ridiculous. The last time they scored more than 24 points was Nov. 8, so in theory, Detroit needs just 12 points at the very most to cover this number. I like those chances.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The 49ers lost a tough game to the Eagles and have been knocked out of playoff contention. How will they get up for the lowly Lions?

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 57% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Lions are 12-7 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006 (2-6 in 2009).

Lions are 3-12 ATS against losing teams the previous 15 instances.

Opening Line: 49ers -10.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Showers, 55 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 16 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Lions 20
Lions +14 (3 Units) — Push; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 20, Lions 6
MISSING

St. Louis Rams (1-13) at Arizona Cardinals (9-5)
Line: Cardinals by 15. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Cardinals -15.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Cardinals -15.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

E-mail from forum member Leo Fender following the Rams-Texans game:

Whilst watching today’s games with a bunch of Swedish friends, we realized that Keith Null probably never should move to Sweden.

The statline at the bottom of the screen always read K. Null x/y z yards. The thing is that in Swedish that is a bad combination of letters, sort of like someone being called Frank Uck (In Swedish it is the noun, not the verb).

This of course made the rest of the game being full of comments like “The Rams have a potent offense with K Null” and “K Null is good coming from behind.”

I like this. Can I say that keeping Null would K. Null Rams fans? Or that Null’s five interceptions K. Nulled anyone up the anus who bet on the Rams? Or that Ryan Leaf K. Nulled Null’s career by coaching him at West Texas A&M? I think I could go on for hours before K. Nulling myself off to some porn and going to bed.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Speaking of K. Null, he was a lot better last week against the Texans than he was at Tennessee. When he played the Titans, he just hurled the ball toward any moving target. When playing Houston, he didn’t make nearly as many mistakes, but also wasn’t much of a threat to get the ball downfield.

What the Rams need to do to win this game is control the clock and keep Kurt Warner off the field. Steven Jackson could have a huge performance, as Arizona has surrendered at least 123 rushing yards to all but one opponent it has played since Nov. 15 (oddly enough, the exception is Minnesota).

With Jackson ripping off long runs, it’ll allow Null to convert short-yardage situations, which is exactly what he did against Houston. However, if Arizona establishes a big lead – something the Texans couldn’t do because of several careless mistakes – then I’ll expect Null to revert to the guy we saw at Tennessee.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Rams weren’t terrible against the pass until two weeks ago. That’s when they lost Pro Bowl free safety O.J. Atogwe for the year with a shoulder injury. In the two games since, St. Louis has yielded a total of 653 passing yards.

Kurt Warner is not facing much of a challenge here. He should be able to do whatever he wants to against St. Louis’ horrific defense.

If Warner wants to just hand the ball off to Chris Wells 30 times, that’ll work as well. Excluding last week because the Texans don’t run the ball, the last time the Rams have allowed less than 120 rushing yards to an opponent was Oct. 11 (oddly enough against Minnesota).

RECAP: There’s obviously an enormous disparity between these two teams, so the question you have to ask yourself is whether or not Arizona will get up for St. Louis.

At first glance, you wouldn’t think so. The Cardinals have clinched the division and it would take a miracle for them to get a bye.

But here’s the thing – Arizona loves beating up on St. Louis. I’m not sure why – perhaps Warner wants to get revenge on a team that displaced him – but the Cardinals always get up for the Rams. Just look at last season; the Cardinals were 14.5-point home favorites over the Rams on Dec. 7 and beat them 34-10.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A meaningless game for the Cardinals, but they’ve shown us in the past that they love to beat up on the Rams and Seahawks – even in late December.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The public is starting to back Arizona.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 69% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won the last 6 meetings.

Rams are 23-39 ATS in road games since 2001 (4-3 in 2009).

Rams are 14-26 ATS on grass since 2001.

Cardinals are 16-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 7-4 ATS vs. the NFC West since 2008.

Cardinals are 2-11 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 13 instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -14.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Cardinals 30, Rams 10
Cardinals -15 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 31, Rams 10

New York Jets (7-7) at Indianapolis Colts (14-0)
Line: Colts by 4.5. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Colts -7 or Jets -3 (No Manning).
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Colts -7 or Jets -3 (No Manning).
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

The Jets are one of the many 7-7 teams in the AFC, but unlike the rest of those squads, they’re not in the playoff hunt. Don’t believe me? Here’s Rex Ryan himself after the loss to Atlanta:

“We’re obviously out of the playoffs.”

If you say so, Rex!

By the way, I’ve taken some criticism on the forums for not bashing Mark Sanchez enough for his interceptions. I guess that’s something I need to work on. Fortunately, Sanchez (and Jay Feely) cost me $440, so I’m pretty pissed off at him right now.

Sanchez’s three picks against the Falcons really hurt. I guess Rex knows his team has no shot at the postseason because Sanchez’s color-coding chart is broken. That, or Rex just discovered that Sanchez missed school the day the class was taught the difference between red and green.

As with look-alike Vincent Chase, Sanchez probably doesn’t know how to drive. Those traffic lights must be so confusing for him.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Getting off Sanchez for a bit, the big thing in this game is whether or not Peyton Manning and the rest of Indianapolis’ starters will play more than a series or two.

The latest we have from Jim Caldwell is the following: “For a guy to be excluded from the game, it will be a health issue, but I could not tell you exactly whether a guy is going to play one series or the entire game.”

Wow, thanks a lot, Jim. It’s not like you need this win to get into the playoffs. Just tell us what you’re going to do, damn it.

Peter King, meanwhile, brought up a great point. He said that Rex Ryan should blitz the hell out of Peyton Manning on every play to scare Caldwell enough to take Manning out of the game. That’s a really good idea, and Rex would definitely be up for something like that.

Even if Manning plays, it’s not like he’ll have an easy time against the Jets. Two of the previous 3-4 teams he’s gone against have held him to 18 or less points. The two that failed to are the Patriots (terrible defense) and Broncos (did a good job until a late Manning touchdown).

Darrelle Revis will erase Reggie Wayne from existence, so with Pierre Garcon likely out with a hand injury, Manning won’t have that much to work with outside of Dallas Clark. His other downfield options will be Austin Collie, Gijon Robinson and Hank Baskett. Yeeesh.

The Jets are also very good against the run, so it’s not like Manning can sit back and hand the ball off to Joseph Addai 25 times and expect short-yardage situations as a result.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Now, back to Sanchez, who did a great job of making some tough third-down conversions against the Falcons. However, he ultimately cost his team with three interceptions.

Sanchez was constantly stuck in third-and-long situations last week and consequently had to force some things. That’s because Atlanta’s improved run defense completely shut down Thomas Jones.

Fortunately for the Jets, that may not be the case here. Three of the last four teams Indianapolis has battled have managed at least 122 rushing yards on a 4.1 average or better. Jones should be able to rebound, opening up short-yardage opportunities for Sanchez.

RECAP: It’s hard to make a pick here without knowing Manning’s status, but I like the Jets for three reasons:

1. I like Peter King’s idea that Rex Ryan will blitz Manning into oblivion and force Caldwell’s hand. Without Wayne (Revis) and Garcon (hand injury), Manning won’t have many options, which could make Caldwell’s decision easier.

2. The Jets are playing their Super Bowl here. Their season’s on the line. They’ll give the Colts their best shot.

3. This spread is suspiciously low. Shouldn’t it be -7 or -7.5? What’s up with -5.5 (or -5 in some places)? The public is betting the hell out of the Colts, yet the line keeps dropping. Something’s up.

The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
Will be posted once Peyton Manning’s status is available, but the Jets have an edge here regardless of whether or not Manning plays the entire game.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The public’s not buying into the notion that Peyton Manning will sit.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 85% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Big Al Trend II: Underdogs coming off a loss as -7 or more, playing a team coming off a SU win are 67-36 ATS.

Colts are 3-9 ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 since 2003.

Opening Line: Colts -7.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Retractable roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Colts 20, Jets 17
Jets +4.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 29, Colts 15
MISSING

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Eagles -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Eagles -6.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Remember to enter your picks in our NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, a few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 16 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

And finally, thanks to the Broncos, there are only 7 people alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

DENVER OFFENSE: After starting out 6-0, the Broncos have dropped six of eight. Opposing defenses have been crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run, forcing the Broncos into their one-dimensional passing attack. This Josh McDaniels-Kyle Orton combination has been too inept to get the ball into the hands of Eddie Royal or Tony Scheffler, so Brandon Marshall is Denver’s only consistent receiving threat.

The Eagles have been great against the run all year, at least until the past two weeks, when they’ve surrendered 5.9 and 4.3 yards per carry to San Francisco and the Giants, respectively. The 49ers mustered 107 rushing yards, and it’s not like the Eagles were too worried about Alex Smith.

If Knowshon Moreno can get going here, it’ll open things up for Kyle Orton on third-and-short. Orton might have enough time in the pocket to muster enough arm strength to get the ball to Brandon Marshall five yards downfield.

If, however, Moreno struggles to gain more than three yards per carry again, Orton won’t be able to move the chains. He’s been sacked nine times in the past three weeks, and you know that Philadelphia excels at getting to the quarterback.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It seemingly doesn’t matter whom he’s playing. DeSean Jackson is always good for multiple huge gains.

The Eagles’ aerial attack has been hot lately – 1,791 passing yards the past six weeks – but the team faces a tough challenge in Denver. Three of the past five quarterbacks the Broncos have battled have passed for 145 yards or less. This includes Philip Rivers. The two exceptions are Peyton Manning (just 220) and Eli Manning (210).

Denver’s secondary is talented, but the key is the team’s pass rush. The Broncos have 35 sacks on the year, thanks to Elvis Dumervil’s league-leading 15. I know that Donovan McNabb has been sacked just three times in the past three weeks, but he hasn’t really faced a defense that brings this much heat since battling Dallas back on Nov. 8. The Eagles lost that game, managing just 297 yards of total offense.

The weak part of the Broncos’ defense is its inability to stop the run. Last week, they permitted Oakland to dash for 241 rushing yards on a 7.1-yard average. That won’t be exposed here because the Eagles don’t run the ball well. I know Andy Reid has been more balanced recently, but that doesn’t mean his team will have much success moving the chains on the ground. In fact, I don’t even know if he stays balanced…

RECAP: The Eagles are unquestionably the better team in this matchup. They’re on fire. In fact, they’re so hot that everyone in the city is now talking about going the distance. On 610 WIP, Angelo Cataldi said, “There’s no excuse for the Eagles not to reach the Super Bowl.”

If you’ve been reading this site long enough, you know what that means: Andy Reid Stink Bomb Time!

This team thrives when expectations are low and wilts when they’re at an all-time high. With Philadelphians talking about a Super Bowl appearance or a potential bye, it seems like the perfect time for Reid to utilize an 80-20 pass-run ratio, waste timeouts and mismanage the clock.

Aside from that, this is a horrific spot for the Eagles for three reasons:

1. They don’t need to win this game (forget the bye; most NFL players are cocky and simply just care about reaching the playoffs.) The Eagles have clinched a spot in the postseason. As far as winning the division, this contest doesn’t matter. Assuming Dallas takes care of Washington, this contest is insignificant. The winner of next week’s Philly-Dallas tilt will take the NFC East.

2. Reid has a really dubious history against AFC teams. He’s just 12-19 against the spread versus non-conference foes since 2001. Remember that Oakland loss? Do you recall that San Diego blowout? Those games weren’t flukes.

3. Brian Dawkins returns home. It’s going to be an emotional day in Philly. The players will be just happy to see him. The fans will cheer him on. Dawkins, meanwhile, will be playing for revenge – and his teammates will try their hardest to get that for him.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

Meaningless game for the Eagles. Even if they win here, they’ll still need to beat Dallas next week to win the NFC East. Also, the players will be too preoccupied with Brian Dawkins’ return.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Tons of action on the Eagles. No surprise there.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 74% (138,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Big Al Trend II: Underdogs coming off a loss as -7 or more, playing a team coming off a SU win are 67-36 ATS.

Broncos are 7-15 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003 (2-1 in 2009).

Eagles are 12-19 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -9.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Rain, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 17 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Eagles 23
Broncos +7 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 30, Broncos 27

Dallas Cowboys (9-5) at Washington Redskins (4-10)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Cowboys -4.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Cowboys -7.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for the Video of the Week segment. One of my fantasy league members, Hawk-Ins, posted this a couple of months ago and I just remembered it: He Puts It in the Wrong Hole.

I’m pretty sure this is best music video I’ve ever seen. No commentary could do it justice. Just watch it.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I’ve ragged on Tony Aurora Snowmo for choking in December, but he’s played really well in these three games thus far. The numbers: 88-of-119, 953 yards, eight touchdowns, no interceptions and no fumbles.

Based on how the ~~East Dillon Lions~~ Redskins looked on Monday night, Snowmo should have no trouble navigating through their defense. Eli Manning went 19-of-26 for 268 yards and three touchdowns, as LaRon Landry completely humiliated himself over and over in coverage. This guy is obviously no Luke Cafferty.

Having said that, Washington’s secondary was so porous because the team clearly mailed it in. I think we’ll see more of an effort from the Redskins here (I’ll explain why later).

If I’m right, and the Redskins actually try this week, Marion Barber won’t have tons of success gashing their defense. Washington had been playing solid run defense before losing to the Giants, limiting its previous two opponents to a total of 120 rushing yards.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Because the Redskins completely gave up, Jason Campbell had no chance. The Giants practically set up a fort in Washington’s backfield; on most plays, Campbell had pressure in his face before completing his three-step drop.

The Redskins’ offensive line really blows, and Dallas’ defense loves bringing tons of pressure, so you’d assume that Campbell will get sacked half a dozen times or so in this contest. Well, not so fast. In a Week 11 meeting against the Cowboys, Campbell was sacked just once, which allowed him to go 24-of-37 for 256 yards and an interception.

As long as Washington puts forth decent effort (again, will explain later), the line should be able to block well enough for Campbell to repeatedly move the chains.

RECAP: All right, I won’t leave you hanging anymore. I absolutely love Washington here for a multitude of reasons. Let’s get to them:

1. EFFORT: As mentioned, the Redskins mailed it in Monday night. There are multiple explanations for this. With the hiring of GM Bruce Allen, they may have realized that Jim Zorn is officially a dead man walking. Perhaps they played too many tough games in a row. Maybe they saw that their stadium had tons of empty seats because of the snowstorm. Or it could be that they don’t care about the Giants.

Well, whatever it is, expect Washington to put forth 110 percent here. First of all, they absolutely hate the Cowboys with a passion. They’ll get up for an opportunity to beat them. Also, NFL teams seldom mail it in on consecutive weeks. Unlike the NBA and MLB, there are no guaranteed contracts in pro football. Even though the Redskins have no shot at the postseason, all of these players are in it for a new contract. You might see a team loaf one week, but it seldom happens twice in a row.

2. CLOSE RIVALRY: As I said, the Redskins hate the Cowboys more than anyone else. As a result, all of their games are close. The last time Dallas beat Washington by more than four points was Sept. 17, 2006. Since then, the point differentials have been: 3 (WAS win), 3 (DAL), 21 (WAS), 2 (WAS), 4 (DAL) and 1 (DAL). That 21-point Washington win was when when Dallas clinched everything and played its backups for half the contest.

With this in mind, I’d be shocked if the Cowboys manage to beat the Redskins by more than a touchdown.

3. LINE VALUE: Last week, the Giants were -3 over the Redskins. However, because of Washington’s horrible loss on national TV, Vegas has been able to bump this spread up to -7 and still garner tons of public action on Dallas.

Because this rivalry is always close, getting seven points with one of these teams is a heck of a bargain.

4. WASHINGTON GOOD: Throw the Monday night game out. The Redskins didn’t try, so we can’t gauge their talent based on that.

Aside from that contest, the Redskins are 2-3 in their previous five games. They crushed Oakland and knocked off a 6-2 Denver team. Their losses were to Dallas by 1, Philadelphia by 3 and New Orleans by 3. If their kicker makes a pair of easy field goals, they beat the Saints and Cowboys, and stand at 6-8 right now.

By the way, that kicker is now on the Cowboys…

5. DALLAS CHOKING: Oh, boy. Everyone watched the Cowboys beat the Saints and now believes that they’re over their annual December swoon.

Now, where have we heard this before? Hmm… could it be when Dallas beat the Giants when they “weren’t supposed to” last year in Week 15 amid a Terrell Owens scandal? At this time last season, everyone was saying that the Cowboys had finally turned it around. Even I was fooled. Check out what I wrote in Week 16 of 2008:

“I like Dallas’ attitude right now. It looks like they finally believe in themselves and that they’re out to prove everyone wrong.”

Ha! What a fool I was!

I don’t understand how this team is any different. They have the same idiot coach. They have the same quarterback who takes trips to Vegas before games. They have a malcontent receiver (Roy Williams). And they have the same prodding owner who makes “suggestions” each week.

If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. If the Cowboys get into the playoffs, I’ll eat my crow and admit that I was incorrect. But if I’m right, hey, I’ll just enjoy my five units and wait until next year when the same bozos on ESPN claim that Dallas is finally over the hump after an unexpected December victory.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

Tony Aurora Snowmo and the Cowboys’ annual choke job continues. This is Washington’s Super Bowl, especially after being embarrassed on Monday night.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Two-thirds of the money back on Dallas.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 67% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Road Team has covered the past 4 meetings.

Monday Misery: Teams coming off losses of 17+ on Monday night are 15-30 ATS the following week since 1999.

Tony Romo is 3-13 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Redskins are 9-5 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2007.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Clear, 38 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Cowboys 22
Redskins +7 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 17, Redskins 0

Minnesota Vikings (11-3) at Chicago Bears (5-9)
Line: Vikings by 8. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Vikings -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Vikings -9.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see the Vikings and Bears battle in what should be a lopsided game. Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Chicago, the most populated city in the United States of North America! Tonight, the Minnesota Vikings take on the Chicago Cubs. Guys, our producer gave me this index card to read because I’ve apparently made too many factual errors this year. I say hogwash, but he’s forcing my hand here. Emmitt, how can the Bears turn things around?

Emmitt: In this game, you have one team that have been struggling. And you have one team that not have been struggling. When you put that together, you get a team that have been struggling versus a team that have not been struggling, and when that happen, the team that have less struggling usually win.

Reilly: Excellent analysis, Emmitt. Now, let’s see what the card says. Coach, how far can Brett Favre take the Vikings? What the… Brett Favre’s not on the Vikings. This is stupid. This card is wrong!

Herm: The card’s wrong! You’re not wrong! I mean the card’s not wrong! You’re wrong! Brett Favre’s a purple! I mean Brett Favre is in purple! Look at the purple! Do you see the purple? You have to see the purple! There’s the purple!

Reilly: Herm, you sly bastard, you said the same exact thing three weeks ago. Go away already! Now, getting back to my original question, the Bears can turn itaround if they get a franchise quarterback. If I were running the Bears, I’d trade this year’s first-round pick to the Colts for Peyton Manning. That would solve everything. What do you think, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Kenny, I respect your judgment and your football proness, but I seriously have my doubt that the Indianapolis Colt would trade Peyton Manning to the Bear for a measley first-round selection choice. Manning obviously have more value than a first-round pick that a team can make in the first round.

Reilly: Are you sure, Emmitt? OK, fine. Bears throw in that scrub Matt Forte who killed my fantasy team!

Emmitt: The Colt need runnin’ back so that will definitely be of assisting.

Reilly: Ha! See that, Mr. Producer? I, Kevin Reilly, know more about football than anyone on this planet, including this idiot coach sitting next to me.

Herm: Thank God this is our last Monday night broadcast together. Kevin Reilly, you’re not but a f***ing a**hole who doesn’t know s*** about anything. You’re a f***ing joke, and there’s no reason you should have a f***ing job.

Reilly: Uhh… We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe, but Adrian Peterson hasn’t rushed for more than 97 yards since Nov. 15. His YPC hasn’t been higher than 3.7 since that date as well. He’s saving his fantasy owners by getting into the end zone and accumulating some receiving yardage, but the Vikings’ inability to run the ball is inexplicable.

You could say it’s a good thing that Minnesota is battling the Bears. Chicago has surrendered at least 110 rushing yards to each opponent it has faced since Oct. 25. However, Peterson mustered just 85 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries in the first meeting against the Bears (Chester Taylor added in 33 yards to get the Vikings over the 110-yard mark). There’s no reason to expect anything different here. Peterson’s in a slump.

Fortunately, Chicago’s secondary is a joke; it allowed Brett Favre to go 32-of-48 for 392 yards and three touchdowns in that prior meeting. Again, there’s no reason to expect anything different here; Joe Flacco just torched the Bears on Sunday.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Speaking of jokes, it seems like Jay Cutler is the target of many of them right now. Cutler has 25 interceptions and generally looks nonchalant and uninterested. It just doesn’t seem like he cares anymore.

Then again, can you really blame Cutler? He has absolutely no offensive line. His receivers stink. He has no running game because the front can’t open up any lanes for Matt Forte. The entire offense is a mess.

The Bears rushed for just 39 yards the first time they battled Minnesota, which allowed the Vikings to place immense pressure on Cutler. Culer was sacked four times and tossed two picks.

RECAP: There’s a reason the Bears haven’t covered a single point spread since Nov. 1. Their offense stinks, their defense stinks, they’re dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and their quarterback just doesn’t seem to care anymore.

We just watched the Redskins mail it in on Monday Night Football. Now, it could be Chicago’s turn in what might just be Lovie Smith’s final game in the Windy City.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
Will the Bears mail it in like the Redskins did?

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Everyone believes the Vikings will rebound.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 78% (210,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Home Team has won 12 of the last 14 meetings (Vikings won 4 of the last 5).

DD7: Lovie Smith is 5-1 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Road Rules: Brad Childress is 6-1 ATS on the road after a road game.

Vikings are 4-23 ATS in road finale since 1980.

Bears are 6-3 ATS off back-to-back losses since 2005.

Bears are 6-3 ATS after giving up 30 or more points in a loss since 2005.

Opening Line: Vikings -7.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Cloudy, 27 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Vikings 41, Bears 10
Vikings -8 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 36, Vikings 30

Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games
Chargers at Titans, Bills at Falcons, Chiefs at Bengals, Raiders at Browns, Seahawks at Packers, Texans at Dolphins, Jaguars at Patriots, Panthers at Giants, Ravens at Steelers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Giants -1, Vikings -1 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440

Moneyline Dog: Raiders +150 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Dog: Jaguars +290 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Dog: Broncos +250 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Dog: Jets +190 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$190

Moneyline Dog: Redskins +240 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Psychological Edge Parlay: Titans -3, Jaguars +8, Lions +12.5, Broncos +7, Redskins +7, Vikings -7 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 17

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)