NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)

NFL Picks (2009): 27-20-2 (+$2,275)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 28, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games

Chicago Bears (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Seahawks -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Seahawks -3 (Hasselbeck) or Bears -2 (Wallace).
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Bears.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Sept. 21, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Jimmy Carter and Racism Accusers. 2) Dumb Parents. 3) Me (Misguided Discriminator).

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Jim Mora Jr. said Tuesday afternoon that he’s preparing to play the Bears without Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck, meanwhile, says he hopes he can start, but that doesn’t look like a realistic scenario right now. He and Donovan McNabb suffered similar injuries, and the latter was held out last week.

With Seneca “The Backdoor Bandit” Wallace under center, the Seahawks will have to run the ball as much as possible. Unfortunately, they’ll be going up against a defense that limited Ryan Grant and Willie Parker to less than 3.9 yards per carry. And it doesn’t help that Julius Jones is arguably the worst starting running back in the league.

Without a sound rushing attack, the Backdoor Bandit will have to rely on a lot of short throws to T.J. Houshmandzadeh, John Carlson, Nate Burleson and Justin Forsett. The Bandit certainly has the talent to move the chains (in a Chad Pennington-esque manner), but can the Seahawks consistently sustain long drives like this against a talented Chicago defense? I don’t think so.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Matt Forte’s fantasy owners are panicking. Their RB1 is averaging only 2.2 YPC thus far and has not gotten into the end zone yet. That will change this week. Forte has struggled because he has gone up against two talented defenses. The Seahawks cannot stop the run. In fact, they are currently ranked dead last against it.

Speaking of rankings, Seattle is third versus the pass. That won’t hold up much longer. The team is giving up a 5.4 YPA because it had the luxury of facing Marc Bulger and Shaun Hill. With a strong ground attack by his side, Jay Cutler will shred the Seahawks’ pedestrian secondary with ease.

RECAP: I’ve gone back and forth concerning my pick for this game. Here’s my reasoning:

I like the Bears because they’re the better team, even without the Seahawks having Matt Hasselbeck. Teams with sound running games and defenses can travel, so even though this is all the way up in the Pacific Northwest, Chicago should be able to play well.

However, I like the Seahawks too. They are very good at Qwest Field, one of the few remaining venues in the NFL with a true homefield advantage. Also, I’m not sure if the Bears will be focused knowing that they’ll be going up against a Hasselbeck-less Seahawk team. I don’t think they’ll see Wallace as much of a challenge. And finally, all of the action being on Chicago scares me.

When it comes down to it, I think the Bears will sneak away with a close victory, but I’m not confident at all. This play is for half a unit.

PICK CHANGE: An e-mailer pointed out to me that I had the wrong side in the Chicago-Seattle (Week 2, 2009) game because I was backing a team that just beat a defending Super Bowl champion as an underdog (not coming off a bye) and was playing on the road. Historically, he said, this was a losing proposition.

So, being very curious and having a lot of time on Friday afternoon, I compiled the data of this trend in the past decade. I came up with some pretty interesting numbers: Beating the Super Bowl Champions.

In short, backing the Bears is a 5-10 ATS proposition. Combined with the fact that Matt Hasselbeck is out and that this looks like a sucker bet, and I’m changing this selection to the Seahawks.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

If Matt Hasselbeck is out, we might not see the Bears at 100 percent, especially considering that they’re off a huge win.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

With Matt Hasselbeck likely out, the public is backing the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 96% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

KOing the Champ: Road teams beating the defending Super Bowl champion as underdogs are 5-10 ATS since 2000.

Seahawks are 13-3 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Sunny, 60 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Seahawks 17, Bears 15
Seahawks +2.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 37 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Bears 25, Seahawks 19

New Orleans Saints (2-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-1)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 51.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Saints -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Saints -3.

Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Saints.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

A few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 2 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on Thursday.

And finally, there are 102 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I’m not sure there is any defense in the NFL right now that can stop Drew Brees. The Eagles forced Jake Delhomme into five turnovers and scored 5,000 points for their fantasy owners, but even they were humiliated.

To contain New Orleans’ scoring attack, the Bills are going to have to pressure Brees with their front four because blitzing him is futile. Unfortunately, that’s not a realistic proposition because Buffalo has just three sacks on the year and will be going up against an elite offensive line. And yes, the front line is elite even without Jammal Brown because Jermon Bushrod is doing a great job filling in. Bushrod has given up just one sack in two contests.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: So, if the Bills can’t contain the Saints’ offense, they’re going to have to match them point for point. Again, that’s not a realistic proposition.

I like Fred Jackson and I believe he should be the starter when Marshawn Lynch returns. However, the Saints have given up just 2.9 YPC this year. That’s not a fluke. Their defense is vastly underrated, so Trent Edwards will have to move the chains on his own.

Edwards should be able to put together some scoring drives with Jackson catching the ball out of the backfield. Edwards will also have to get the ball to Lee Evans and Terrell Owens more often; the two have combined for just nine catches this season. Buffalo’s leading receiver (not named Jackson) is Derek Schouman, who just went on IR.

RECAP: If the Saints are completely focused, they’ll be able to obliterate the Bills. They are one of the top four or five teams in the league, and they actually happen to be underrated for a change because casual fans don’t recognize that their defense is actually pretty solid.

One caveat that I have to mention is that New Orleans could be looking ahead to its matchup against the Jets. However, the Saints had the chance to look ahead to the Eagles game in Week 1, but they still blasted the Lions. And besides, Buffalo won last week and looked impressive against the Patriots. Perhaps New Orleans perceives the Bills to be a quality opponent.

I’m only laying one unit on this game because of the Vegas factor. Again, I’m scared that a few shady things might happen this week. Every sportsbook took a massive hit last weekend.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Saints might be looking ahead, but the Bills have looked impressive in two games. Also, the last time they were in this situation, they easily dismantled the Lions. A win for Buffalo here is only a little bit more significant, as the Falcons are 2-0 along with New Orleans.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here. Casual bettors love offensive teams. This line has moved up 1.5 points in just 24 hours.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 78% (122,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 43-29 ATS on the road since 2000.

Drew Brees is 18-8 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Drew Brees is 11-5 ATS as a road favorite.

Bills are 18-12 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.

Bills are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Saints -4.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Few showers, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 41, Bills 20
Saints -6 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 51.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Saints 27, Bills 7

Denver Broncos (2-0) at Oakland Raiders (1-1)
Line: Broncos by 2. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Raiders -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Raiders -3.

Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

If you missed it last week, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 2 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, Emmitt’s Patriots travel to Dallas for a major event and a battle against the Cowboys. Five years after unveiling his new stadium, Jerry Jones has a new surprise for all of the fans.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos’ offense is pretty simple. They’re going to run with Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno, and when they call passing plays, it’s just a 5-yard out from Kyle Orton. It makes you wonder how horrible the Browns truly are if they couldn’t stop that.

The Raiders will be able to. Denver will sustain some long drives with tons of short junk, but expect a bunch of missed opportunities as Orton will bog the offense down in plus territory.

One thing that will hurt Denver is its inability to run the ball here. The Broncos gashed the Browns on Sunday, but the Raiders’ revamped defensive line has limited opposing rushers to just 3.7 YPC.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders, of course, will have trouble scoring as well. I don’t know what happened to the Broncos’ defense this offseason, but they are suddenly stopping the run. Of course, they haven’t faced any great rushing attacks, but Oakland’s coaching staff is too ~~scared of Al Davis~~ inept to give the ball to their best runner (Michael Bush) on a consistent basis.

JaMarcus Russell was brilliant on his last drive, but he completed only THREE passes the entire game going into it. How does that happen, you ask? It happens when an owner asks his young quarterback to consistently take downfield shots to one of the worst top-10 selections in NFL Draft history. It’s no coincidence that Russell was finally able to get things going when Darrius Heyward-Bey left the game with an injury. Zach Miller and Louis Murphy are such better weapons for him – it’s not even close.

Unfortunately, as long as Undead Al is calling the shots, Russell will struggle. And that’s before considering that he’ll constantly be under pressure. With no ground attack available to him, Russell will feel the heat on long-yardage situations from Elvis Dumervil, who is playing like a man possessed.

RECAP: This is a very blah game where the first team to score 10 could be the winner. Ordinarily, I’d just advise you to take the underdog, but this is essentially just a pick-em.

Here’s my advice to you: Don’t bet the Raiders when they are favored. People have fallen for it before and have always lost money. Dating back to when Art Shell coached this team the second time around, Oakland hasn’t covered a single spread when it has been laying points.

PICK CHANGE: The Broncos are now favored for some reason. I don’t get it, but whatever. I’m taking the underdog no matter what.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Two heated rivals fighting for first place in the AFC West.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Slight action on the Broncos. Nothing major.

Percentage of money on Denver: 65% (91,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Broncos have won 17 of the last 23 meetings (Raiders 5-1 ATS since 2006).

Broncos are 7-24 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Raiders are 11-28 ATS at home the previous 39 instances.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Raiders 12, Broncos 10
Raiders +2 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Under 37.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Broncos 23, Raiders 3

Miami Dolphins (0-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-1)
Line: Chargers by 5.5. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Chargers -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Chargers -6.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

A couple of weeks ago, I asked if anyone knew what happened to Sean Salisbury. I got two e-mails from Judson H. and John Y. who explained the situation to me. The latter sent this:

I remember you mentioning somewhere what happened to Sean Salisbury? This will give you a laugh: according to Mark Madden, Salisbury was fired by ESPN for sending pictures of his uhh.. sexy private area to female coworkers. Apparently they were not as turned on by this as Salisbury thought. Anyway, what makes it even funnier is that he was recently fired by a radio station FOR DOING THE SAME THING! I’ll leave you to make up the jokes for this one.

Yeah, that actually makes sense. Good old Sean Salisbury sucked at football analysis, and he also sucked at making good judgments. I’d comment on how Salisbury’s sucky football analysis didn’t translate into any sucking being done in the bedroom, but we like to keep things clean here on WalterFootball.com.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Speaking of sucking, the Dolphins couldn’t put anything together in the final two minutes of the Indianapolis game because Chad Pennington has no arm strength and can’t lead his team to a quick score.

That said, Miami did a great job controlling the clock by running the ball and converting third-and-short situations. The Dolphins should be able to move the chains via the ground game once again, given that Jamal Williams is out for the year. This will allow Pennington to connect to Ted Ginn and Davone Bess for first-down conversions.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Dolphins had a ton of trouble with Indianapolis’ quick-strike offense, so the bad news for them is that they now have to deal with Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates.

Even if LaDainian Tomlinson misses this game, I really don’t think the Chargers will have much difficulty scoring. The Dolphins give up a YPA of 9.0, and if Tomlinson is out, Rivers is only going to throw more downfield to Jackson and Gates.

The one concern for the Chargers is the right side of the offensive line. The Dolphins could have some luck getting to Rivers. Then again, the Ravens sacked Rivers just two times Sunday.

RECAP: This is a great spot for the Chargers. They are coming off a loss and they suffered a defeat to the Dolphins last year. They’ll be out for revenge.

Meanwhile, Miami put so much emotion into that Monday night contest, and despite a flawless game plan, came up short on the scoreboard. Now, the team has to go all the way out to the West Coast and battle a talented squad set on avenging a 2008 loss? Sounds like major trouble to me.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

How can the Dolphins bounce back from that Monday night game? They put together a perfect game plan and used up so much emotion. They’re going to be completely flat.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Dolphins looked great on Monday night. The public is betting accordingly.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 54% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 30-21 SU in September since 1994.

Dolphins are 4-1 ATS on the West Coast since 2003.

Chad Pennington is 18-12 ATS off a loss.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 90 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Dolphins 13
Chargers -6 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 45 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Chargers 23, Dolphins 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
Line: Steelers by 3.5. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Steelers -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Steelers -3.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’ll keep you posted regarding how Bo-Bo and Phat Hair Bro are doing in that fantasy league. Last week, it was another fantasy miracle! Phat Hair Bro improved to 2-0. Bo-Bo, unfortunately, lost a close game and is now 1-1.

Phat Hair Bro pulled out a tight one, 119-113 with this lineup: Brady/Steve Smith/Henderson/Avery/Thomas Jones/Fred Jackson/Tony Gonzalez/Carney/Steelers. Credit Phat Hair Bro for replacing crap players like Muhsin Muhammad and Willie Parker with talented ones. Phat Hair Bro was too busy putting gel in his hair to comment.

Bo-Bo, meanwhile, suffered a 73-68 defeat with these guys: Flacco/Owens/Austin/Curtis/Turner/Gore/Cooley/Akers/Vikings. Bo-Bo was too busy having sex with 10 women Saturday night to change his lineup from Week 1, aside from plugging in Miles Austin for Joey Galloway. You have to appreciate this savvy move, especially considering that he kept Kevin Curtis as a starter.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Speaking of Willie Parker, he has been benched in favor of the fumble-prone Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall isn’t very good either, but Mike Tomlin was basically handcuffed with that decision; Parker’s play has been brutal in the first two weeks of the season.

However, that won’t matter against the Bengals. It’s still hard to believe, but Cincinnati has a very good defense; they currently rank 10th versus the run and 13th against the pass. They were able to sack Aaron Rodgers six times last week. I know the Packers don’t exactly have a solid offensive line, but it’s not like the Steelers do either.

I think Pittsburgh will struggle early to put some consistent drives together. I actually see the offense playing like it did against the Titans. However, once the Steelers get into a hurry-up mode, that’s when Ben Roethlisberger will be able to put some points on the board. He always does.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Steelers obviously have a great defense, but Troy Polamalu’s presence was missed Sunday when Jay Cutler marched straight down the field to win the game.

The Bears scored about 17 points, and I can see the Bengals getting about the same thing. Carson Palmer will be able to connect with Chad Ochocinco for a few big plays, but his pedestrian offensive line will betray him against Dick LeBeau’s blitzing schemes.

It’ll all be up to Palmer to move the chains because the Steelers, even without Polamalu, are prolific versus the run. Holding Matt Forte to 29 yards on 13 carries is no easy feat.

RECAP: The Steelers clobbered the Bengals in two meetings last year, but this one will be different with Carson Palmer under center.

This is a matchup between two really good teams with great defenses. Points will be at a premium, so I expect a low-scoring game in which Roethlisberger will somehow find a way to win at the end.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
This is a big game for the Bengals and there will be a lot of emotion at Paul Brown Stadium. However, that won’t faze the Steelers.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Despite last week’s win, the public isn’t ready to pound the Bengals yet.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 57% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Road Team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings.

History: Steelers have won the last 5 meetings.

Winning Coach: Mike Tomlin is 5-2 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Ben Roethlisberger is 61-23 as a starter (48-35 ATS).

Ben Roethlisberger is 20-9 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Bengals are 8-24 ATS in September home games since 1992.

Carson Palmer is 3-7 ATS as a home dog.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Sunny, 65 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Bengals 16
Bengals +4 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 37 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Bengals 23, Steelers 20

Indianapolis Colts (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Colts -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Colts -3.

Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

The Colts are underdogs? Wait… the Colts are underdogs to the Cardinals? How did this happen? What sort of drugs were the oddsmakers taking? And why isn’t the public all over Indianapolis? I would have expected 5,811 percent of the action to be on the Colts. I guess there were a lot of people who listened to ESPN after the Colts-Dolphins game to hear Steve Young harp about how Indianapolis’ defense couldn’t stay on the field for 45 minutes against teams with “quick-strike offenses” and win.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Perhaps Young forgot to take his concussion medicine that night because the Colts’ stop unit has pretty much been this bad this entire decade. Seriously, except for their Super Bowl run in which Bob Sanders actually played, I can’t remember the last time Indianapolis was successful at stopping an opposing ground attack.

The Dolphins gashed Indianapolis with Ronnie Brown, and the Cardinals should be able to do the same thing here with Chris Wells. Unfortunately, Wells didn’t play much last week because he fumbled twice. If Arizona wants a shot at winning this game, it’ll give him the ball. The dancing Tim Hightower has proven that he’s not effective against anyone (except versus teams that give up, like the Jaguars).

But don’t the Cardinals have that quick-strike offense that Young was talking about? Didn’t Kurt Warner set a completion-percentage record last week? That he did, but Warner’s longest pass was 22 yards, prompting Larry Fitzgerald’s brother to call out Warner on Twitter.

Indianapolis’ secondary is much better than Jacksonville’s. I could see Warner commit a few turnovers here. He’s not going to be able to get the ball downfield because of his hip problem and his new shoulder injury.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Marvin Harrison is gone, Anthony Gonzalez is hurt, and Joseph Addai is missing assignments in pass protection, but it doesn’t matter. Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning.

The Cardinals have been terrific against the run early on this season, so neither Addai nor Donald Brown will get much going on the ground (though Brown needs to be on the field more). But Manning will once again get the job done. Arizona’s secondary isn’t impenetrable by any means.

RECAP: A week ago, if you would have told me that Arizona would be favored over the Colts by 2.5 points, I would have said, “The fix is in.” But that’s hardly the case. The public was so unimpressed by Indianapolis on Monday night that there is actually equal action on this game.

I don’t understand that. As long as Manning is healthy, the Colts will continue to be one of the top teams in the league. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are vastly overrated because Warner isn’t anywhere near 100 percent. Again, I know he had that record-setting game, but if you actually watched it, you would have come away just as unimpressed as Larry Fitzgerald’s brother.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Colts are going to show up to play, but they really don’t need this game. The Jaguars and Titans are both 0-2, while the Texans are 1-1. They’re in control of the AFC South.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Colts are underdogs? Why isn’t the public all over this?

Percentage of money on Arizona: 55% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Colts are 15-10 ATS vs. the NFC since 2002.

Colts are 33-23 ATS on the road since 2002.

Cardinals are 8-1 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: Cardinals -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Colts 30, Cardinals 20
Colts +2.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 48 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Colts 31, Cardinals 10

Carolina Panthers (0-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Line: Cowboys by 8.5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Cowboys -10.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Cowboys -9.5.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s Game 2 in Jerry Jones’ palace! Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game: Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Texas Stadium for a game between the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Hurricanes! This is going to be a great game! I hate the Cowboys, but Jerry Jordan really built an incredible stadium, guys.

Herm: Look at the JumboTron! Look at the JumboTron! Look at the JumboTron! Look at the JumboTron! Look at the JumboTron! It’s big! Look at it! It’s big! It’s big! Look at it! Look at the JumboTron!

Reilly: That JumboTron is the seventh-biggest on U.S. Soil. Emmitt, you played for the Cowboys in the 80s. What do you think of this new place?

Emmitt: This Texas Stadium is not just big… it is very, very big. It is so big, you do not have… or uhh… have… any idea how big it is!

Reilly: Well, I hate the Cowboys, so I hope they lose tonight to the Hurricanes. Emmitt, what do you think of the backfield of Marion Jones and Felix Barber?

Emmitt: Dallas do not just have one good running back, they has two good running back. When you have two running back on one ball club, then that is more than if you have one running back on a ball club.

Reilly: Herm, you haven’t stopped staring at the JumboTron.

Herm: It’s big! It’s big! It’s big! It’s big! It’s big! I know how they change all the light bulbs in there! I know how they do it! Here’s what they do! I’m going to tell you what they do! Here’s how they do it! Here it is! They… uhh… umm…

Reilly: We’ll be back after these messages!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Speaking of Felix Barber and Marion Jones, the Cowboys should have plenty of success running the ball against Carolina’s woeful defensive line. Barber could miss this game, but Dallas has already shown us that it won’t miss a beat with Tashard Choice in the backfield.

Tony Romo, meanwhile, will be asked to rebound off a woeful performance. I think he’ll have a good performance against a secondary that was just shredded by Matt Ryan. Romo only chokes when the pressure is on; Carolina is 0-2, so Romo can relax and just connect on deep throws to his receivers. The Panthers have just two sacks on the year, so Romo will have all the time in the pocket that he needs.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Cowboys are pretty brutal versus the run, so they basically sold out against Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw on Sunday night. The two runners still combined for 95 yards on 25 carries.

Unfortunately, this plan didn’t work out too well because Eli Manning, Mario Manningham and Steve Smith torched the secondary. However, there will be less risk employing the same strategy Monday night against DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart; it’s not like anyone is afraid of Jake Delhomme.

Delhomme played well on paper at Atlanta, but things could have gotten ugly very early. In the first quarter, Delhomme was scrambling right. Before taking a sack, he threw an underhanded toss toward a Falcon defender. That player dropped a potential pick-six.

Delhomme went error-free the rest of the day until the very end, but as that first-quarter play showed us, he’s more than capable of making a dumb decision.

RECAP: It’s a shame that Delhomme is still the quarterback of the Panthers because I’d like them in this contest otherwise. Carolina is in a must-win situation, while Dallas could be flat as big favorite after such an emotional loss. Plus, Romo seldom covers as a favorite of seven or more.

However, I feel it would be irresponsible of me to recommend laying anything more than three units on the Panthers. If I were confident in Delhomme, this would be a 5-unit selection, but I simply do not trust him.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Cowboys just lost a very emotional game to a divisional rival and are now a big favorite. They will be flat. The Panthers need a win.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Bettors pounded the Cowboys early, but the action then tilted a lot toward Carolina. It’s now equal.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 60% (173,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Hello, Goodbye II: Underdogs of 6.5 or more are 20-14 ATS going into a bye (John Fox 3-0).

Losing Coach: Wade Phillips is 1-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Panthers are 27-21 ATS as an underdog the previous 48 instances.

Jake Delhomme is 29-17 ATS on the road.

Jake Delhomme is 23-10 ATS as an underdog in his career.

Jake Delhomme is 3-6 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Cowboys are 9-5 ATS after a loss since 2006.

Tony Romo is 19-9 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 7-2 ATS as a starter in September.

Tony Romo is 4-10 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving.

Opening Line: Cowboys -10.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Cowboys 31, Panthers 24
Panthers +8.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 48 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Cowboys 21, Panthers 14

Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games
Redskins at Lions, Chiefs at Eagles, Packers at Rams, 49ers at Vikings, Falcons at Patriots, Giants at Buccaneers, Browns at Ravens, Jaguars at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Eagles -1.5, Giants -1 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300

Live Dog: Jaguars +170 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$170

Live Dog: 49ers +250 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Pyschological Edge Parlay: 49ers +7, Patriots -4.5, Jaguars +4, Chargers -6, Panthers +9 (.5 Units to win 12.2) — Incorrect; -$50

Parlay Hedge: Cowboys -8.5 (3.3 units to win 3) — Correct; +$300

2009 NFL Season Betting Props

NFL Picks - Dec. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)