NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)

NFL Picks (2009): 63-42-2 (+$6,575)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 26, 4:25 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (1-5)
Line: Packers by 9. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Packers -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Packers -7.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Packers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 6 Recap: I’m glad I hit my top two plays last week (Patriots -9, Texans +5). That helped my unit dropoff from swelling too much because it was an awful week overall, as I was just 5-9. I guess you can’t win every Sunday. What really hurt was watching the Jaguars and Steelers combine for four fumbles deep inside enemy territory, which blew the covers for both teams. Other than that, I just made stupid selections. Hopefully I’ll be able to rebound.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I wrote this in my NFL Week 6 Game Recaps page – though the Packers won 26-0, they played a sloppy game in which they couldn’t block Detroit’s defensive line. Despite the score and the fact that they were throwing short passes all afternoon, the Packers allowed five sacks to the Lions. Making matters worse, left tackle Chad Clifton is out with an injury once again.

The Browns somehow have 12 sacks on the year, so the Packers will once again have trouble protecting Aaron Rodgers, who consequently won’t be able to go deep to Greg Jennings. Luckily for Rodgers, Cleveland’s secondary stinks.

The Browns are also poor against the run, so you may think that Ryan Grant will have a big game. Well, the Lions are worse defensively than the Browns, yet Grant couldn’t even average four yards per carry on Sunday. His offensive line is that bad.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: In his last two games, Derek Anderson is a combined 11-of-41 for 145 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. However, Anderson isn’t as bad as those numbers would indicate. He has suffered through numerous drops. Plus, don’t forget how windy it was in Buffalo two weeks ago. One of his picks came in a desperation attempt late in the Pittsburgh game.

The good news for the Browns is that Mohamed Massaquoi is emerging as a solid threat; he had five catches for 83 yards versus the Steelers. Unfortunately, Cleveland has traded all of its other offensive weapons, which means we can expect more drops come Sunday.

Other than Massaquoi, the one positive aspect of Cleveland’s offense is its line. Derek Anderson has taken only six sacks in three starts, so unlike last week, the Packers won’t be collecting a sack on every drive.

RECAP: The Packers are the better team, but their offensive line is awful, and I don’t think it’ll be able to hold up in Cleveland. Also, Green Bay might have trouble completely preparing for this non-conference game because they get to play Brett Favre next week. Historically, Mike McCarthy has not done well when favored over AFC opponents (see stat below).

Besides, the Browns aren’t that bad. Laugh all you want, but they’re 3-0 against the spread ever since Anderson was named the starter. In Anderson’s only home start this season, he nearly knocked off the Bengals.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

Coming off a big win, the Packers have this easy contest against a non-conference opponent before taking on Brett Favre next week. Classic Look-Ahead Alert.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

I’m shocked – SHOCKED – that people are pounding the Packers over the Browns.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 91% (164,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Packers are 1-4 ATS as non-conference favorites under Mike McCarthy.

Opening Line: Packers -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 51 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Packers 24, Browns 23
Browns +9 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 41.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Packers 31, Browns 3

San Diego Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
Line: Chargers by 5.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Chargers -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Chargers -7.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Vegas Recap: For the third week in a row, Vegas split with its most highly backed teams. They won money with the Browns and Raiders covering, but took a hit with the Panthers and Chiefs beating the number. Remember, a .500 week is good for the books because they collect the juice. Plus, the Jets losing outright broke up a lot of teasers.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Philip Rivers has to be sore this week. He took such a huge beating from the Broncos, as he was constantly pressured behind his inept offensive line. He was sacked five times, but was knocked down on many more occasions.

Fortunately for Rivers, the Chiefs don’t believe in getting to the quarterback. Through six games, they have only nine sacks. Three came last week against the Redskins, who were missing their elite left tackle Chris Samuels.

Rivers should have a clean pocket for most of this game, especially with Kansas City’s 29th-ranked rush defense struggling to stop LaDainian Tomlinson. A healthy-looking Tomlinson ran well against the Broncos on Monday night, so I expect him to dominate this contest.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: You win games in the trenches, so that would explain why the Chargers are 2-3 right now. They can’t get off the field on third down because they can’t stop the run (23rd) or get to the quarterback (7 sacks).

However, Kansas City’s offensive line is so bad that I think San Diego’s defensive statistics might get a nice boost after this game. In five starts, Matt Cassel has taken a whopping 19 sacks. Left tackle Branden Albert should be back in the lineup, but that won’t help much because he’s not very good.

While the Chargers have struggled against the rush, I can’t see Larry Johnson putting together a good performance. His offensive line stinks and he just can’t turn the corner anymore. He’s averaging just 2.7 yards per carry, and his longest gain on the year is just 17 yards. If only Todd Haley were smart enough to give Jamaal Charles more touches…

RECAP: I was willing to take the Chiefs if this line came out at 6-7. These San Diego-Kansas City battles are usually very close, and I think the Chargers could be a bit flat after losing to the Broncos in an emotional Monday night game.

That said, what is Vegas thinking by making this spread only -4.5? If they don’t fix this game, they’re going to lose a ton of money.

This is my weakest play of the week, but I’m taking the Chargers. The Chiefs are terrible – they’ve been blown out three times this year – and San Diego will be desperate to get a victory.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chargers could be a bit flat after losing an emotional game to the Broncos.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

I don’t understand this stupid line. Vegas is baiting the public to pound the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 91% (138,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 22 meetings.

Chiefs are 5-13 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Chargers -4.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 55 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Chargers 23, Chiefs 16
Chargers -5.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Under 44 (.5 Units) — Push; $0
Chargers 37, Chiefs 7

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-3)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Texans -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Texans -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Several e-mailers asked me what I thought about the Gaines Adams trade. I hate to pull a Dan Marino and offer no strong opinion, but I truly think it was good for both sides. The Bucs had to salvage something out of a top-five bust, and a second-round pick is a solid acquisition. The Bears, meanwhile, get a top-five prospect for a selection in which they probably would have spent on a defensive end anyway. Rod Marinelli will coach Adams up. At the very worst, Marinelli will have a strong guy to attack any reporters who question his daughter’s taste in men.

2. The Vikings take on the Steelers this week. It should be a good game, but not according to my dad. When Pittsburgh let a cover slip away for the second week in a row, I got a call from my dad who repeatedly yelled about how crooked the Steelers are, and how all of their games are fixed.

I mentioned this last year, but I’ll repeat it again for the new readers. Pittsburgh’s original owner made all of his money by running a sportsbook (when it was legal). So, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Steelers allow all of these late backdoor covers or fumble repeatedly in the red zone. If this happened once a year, I’d call it a fluke, but this shadiness occurs multiple times each season.

3. The Vikings play the Packers next week. If you’re looking for a laugh, check out Clay Matthews‘ player profile on ESPN (credit forum member blue5213 for posting this). Matthews, despite being just 23 years old, apparently started his career back in 1978. I’m pretty sure that at -8 years old, Matthews was the youngest player in NFL history.

4. I’d like to repeat something I wrote on my NFL Power Rankings page because it needs to be brought to light:

“Of course, when Norv Turner actually correctly challenged a play, he was denied by a crooked officiating crew that was making phantom calls all evening. Brandon Stokley caught the ball out of the end zone. He dropped to the ground, and when he rolled in, the official signaled for a touchdown. That looked like the correct call at first, but the replay showed that Antonio Cromartie touched Stokley on the ground. It should have been Denver’s ball on the 1-yard line.

However, Scott Green, who seemed like he had tons of money on the Broncos, ruled that Stokley scored a touchdown even though it was very obvious that Stokley was never in the end zone.

A quick note on Green: He’s the same official who ruled that Troy Polamalu didn’t return a fumble at the end of last year’s extremely shady Pittsburgh-San Diego game that finished with an 11-10 score. It’s becoming very evident that Green is the Tim Donaghy of the NFL.”

HOUSTON OFFENSE: For the past couple of years, we’ve wondered how dominant Houston’s offense would be if Matt Schaub just managed to stay healthy. Well, Schaub has 14 touchdowns in six games, putting him on pace for 37 scores on the year. That’s pretty amazing.

However, if Schaub has been guilty of one downfall, it’s been his inability to play well against 3-4 defenses. Just this year, he was completely shut down by the Jets, while the Cardinals held him to zero points in the first half of their game. Schaub eventually caught fire against Arizona, but was guilty of a pick-six that sealed the loss for his team.

The 49ers have shown that their secondary can be beaten (just ask Matt Ryan). However, I don’t think the Texans will be able to pass protect that effectively against San Francisco’s solid pass rush. The running game certainly won’t work.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Texans came into the Bengals game ranked dead last versus the rush, yet they somehow contained Cedric Benson to 44 yards on 16 carries. I don’t know if Houston can once again shut down the opposing team’s ground attack – I have my doubts for now – but it’s definitely worth monitoring. The Benson performance could have been a fluke, but then again, Brian Cushing and Bernard Pollard are playing really well right now.

Regardless of whether the rushing attack is effective or not, you know that Mike Singletary will pound the rock early and often with Frank Gore. Gore should average about 3.5 yards per carry at the very least, which would put Shaun Hill in manageable situations. Hill won’t win any shootouts, but he’s great at managing games and converting third-and-short opportunities. Hill should have plenty of time to do so, as the Texans have just seven sacks all year.

RECAP: I think this will be a close game that’ll go down to the wire. I’m taking the 49ers for three reasons:

1. As mentioned, Schaub historically has struggled against good 3-4 defenses.

2. I don’t know why, but the Texans for whatever reason can’t put two sound games together. They’ve gone L-W-L-W-L-W this year both straight up and against the spread.

3. Houston is favored here over what I consider a good team. The Texans have shown that they can beat up on the crap of the NFL (i.e. Raiders), but now they’re expected to beat a very good squad. I don’t like them in that role.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

The Texans can’t put two good games together. I’m not sure I like them in the role of a favorite in a game that they’re supposed to win.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Two-thirds of the public like the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 67% (144,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Texans are 13-24 ATS after a win (7-8 since 2007).

Opening Line: Texans -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Retractable roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Texans 20
49ers +3 (1 Unit) — Push; $0
Under 44 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Texans 24, 49ers 21

Indianapolis Colts (5-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-6)
Line: Colts by 14.5. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Colts -13.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Colts -13.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some college football notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Why were there no good games on during primetime last weekend? Oklahoma-Texas would have been perfect for ABC’s 8 p.m. game. Showing it at noon was a huge mistake. I can’t wake up before 1 p.m., for crying out loud!

There was no reason not to schedule that game at 8. One explanation I heard was that the police didn’t want to deal with a bunch of drunk college students at night. Another was that ABC didn’t want to clash with the playoff baseball game.

To that, I call bulls**t. There will always be drunk college students at night, and the police should just do their job. And with baseball, who cares? Outside of Philly, New York and L.A., no one is watching baseball right now.

2. Can we call Sam Bradford an idiot again for not declaring early? Bradford re-injured his shoulder and could be out for the year. Note to all college football players: If you’re projected to go in the top 20, leave for the NFL. The exception is if you go to USC or Ohio State, and are getting paid a ton of money already.

3. I swear that the officials in the Texas-Oklahoma game announced, “This play is under further review” about five billion times throughout the course of the afternoon. It really got out of hand. I say we just give each coach two challenges so the games don’t take five hours.

4. Dumbest question ever from the NBC sideline reporter in the USC-Notre Dame game.

This blond woman asked Pete Carroll, “Pete, the game came down to the last second. When did you win the game?”

Derrrrrrrrrr Derrrrrrrrr.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Rams definitely have a shot to contain Indianapolis’ offense. Trust me. I know a way for St. Louis to shut down the Colts. All they need is for Peyton Manning to get hurt. The rest is pretty easy.

Though the Rams have improved against the run this year – amazingly, they’re 16th against it – they still can’t stop the pass. They’re 27th versus opposing aerial attacks.

It’s impossible to blitz Peyton Manning, so the Rams will have to get to him using just their four-man front. We know that’s not going to happen, so expect tons of points and very few punts from Indianapolis’ offense.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Ever since that near-disaster on Monday night when the Colts couldn’t get off the field against the Dolphins, they’ve played the run extremely well. In three games, they’ve surrendered a combined 163 rushing yards to the opposition. That’s pretty damn impressive.

The Rams will keep riding Steven Jackson, but their inefficient passing attack will allow Indianapolis to pay extra attention to their star running back. Even if the Colts do so, Marc Bulger won’t have much success moving the chains versus a stout Colts secondary ranked third against the pass. Oh, and expect Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to be constantly breathing down Bulger’s neck.

RECAP: Ever since nearly losing to the Dolphins (who have emerged as a pretty good team, by the way), the Colts have beaten the opposition by 21, 17 and 22 points.

This game has blowout written all over it. I’m seldom comfortable laying double digits on the road – especially after that Eagles-Raiders debaclation – but Manning is playing better than he ever has in his career. I have a hard time seeing the Rams cover this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Rams seemed to put a lot of energy into the Jaguars game, but came up just a bit short. Summoning that energy again in front of an empty stadium could be difficult.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Hmm… do you put your hard-earned money on Peyton Manning or Marc Bulger?

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 95% (219,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Colts are 17-10 ATS vs. the NFC since 2002.

Colts are 35-23 ATS on the road since 2002.

Peyton Manning is 26-18 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Colts -13.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Colts 34, Rams 10
Colts -14.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 45.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Colts 42, Rams 6

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Steelers -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Steelers -2.5.

Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

There were several dumb comments made around the NFL this past weekend. I’d like to share some of them with you and provide my thoughts on each of them:

1. Ted Ginn on being the kick returner again: “I still think I’m one of the greats in the business in doing it. I just have to get an opportunity to.”

You STILL think you’re one of the great kick-returners in the business? So you thought you were great before? When was this, when you failed to score on all of your 63 kickoffs in 2007? When you once again were shut out in 2008? Ginn has 99 kickoff returns in his career, none of which are touchdowns, and his longest take-back ever was 52 yards. Yep, he’s one of the greats in the business all right.

2. Dick Stockton: “Nice pressure by Stylez-White!”

There’s nothing weirder than hearing old man Dick Stockton yell, “Nice pressure by Stylez-White!” Stockton then proceeded to ask his color commentator partner what year it was and if he was his son.

3. Dan Dierdorf: “Raaaaaay Leeeewis stiilll can plaaaaay hwa hwa hwa hwa hwa!”

The “hwa hwa hwa hwa hwa!” sounded really menacing. I think I’m going to go around randomly yelling “hwa hwa hwa hwa hwa!” just to scare people away.

4. Terry Bradshaw: “The rookie receiver from Missouri, he’s taken over the starting job at receiver for Lewis.”

Way to get two things wrong in a single sentence. Who the hell is Lewis? Do you mean Kevin Curtis? And that kid from Missouri is Jeremy Maclin. Looks like someone raided his own liquor cabinet a bit early on Sunday morning!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s pretty weird that Brett Favre is playing really well, yet the Vikings defense is having problems tackling. Who saw those two things coming? Their inability to stop Ray Rice and thwart Joe Flacco from leading a come-from-behind drive was pretty alarming.

Despite the fact that the Steelers aren’t calling too many rushing plays, Ben Roethlisberger has been on fire. He’s been getting better protection from his once-maligned offensive line, and he has so many weapons to work with that opposing defenses can’t deal with them all.

If the Steelers actually decide to run the ball, they might have some success. The Vikings are just 14th against the run, and as mentioned, they really struggled to contain Rice last week. Rashard Mendenhall, who is averaging 5.1 YPC this year, will continue to be a nice complement for the passing attack.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Adrian Peterson has rushed for 4.5 yards per carry or more in every game this year except for one (Packers). I’m willing to bet that number becomes two after this contest. No one runs on the Steelers; they’re tied for third against opposing ground attacks.

Brett Favre will be asked to carry Minnesota’s offense on his shoulders. Despite many doubters, including me, Favre has been brilliant this year, throwing 12 touchdowns to only two interceptions. He also seems to pull a miraculous play out of nowhere to break the heart of the opposition every week. Poor 49ers and Ravens.

However, things could be a bit different this time. Dick LeBeau’s creative blitz schemes could confuse Favre and his offensive front; the last time Favre took on the Steelers, he was just 20-of-35 for 214 yards (6.1 YPA) and a pick.

It also wouldn’t surprise me if Favre plays well again, but I just don’t have much trouble picturing Troy Polamalu coming away with at least one of Favre’s downfield heaves.

RECAP: The Steelers are on a bit of a roll, having won three in a row. They’ve only covered one of those games, but you can attribute that to a Daunte Culpepper backdoor touchdown and two fumbles deep inside Cleveland territory. All three contests should have been huge Steeler victories.

This should be a tough game that could be decided at the very end. However, I like the Steelers because this contest simply doesn’t mean much to Minnesota. The Vikings are 6-0, comfortably ahead of everyone in the NFC North. Next week, Favre goes back to Green Bay to take on his old team. If I’m Favre, I’m probably much more worried about that than some non-conference foe I’m not too familiar with.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

A bigger game for the Steelers; the Vikings are well ahead of everyone in the NFC North, so a non-conference tilt means very little to them. Plus, they go to Lambeau next week. The Steelers, meanwhile, are tied for first in the division and are going into their bye.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

The action has evened out.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 66% (210,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 25-11 ATS in October since 2000.

Steelers are 11-6 ATS in October home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 64-24 as a starter (49-38 ATS).

Opening Line: Steelers -4.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 51 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Steelers 31, Vikings 23
Steelers -6 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 46.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Steelers 27, Vikings 17

New England Patriots (4-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
Line: Patriots by 15.5. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Patriots -14.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Patriots -16.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
Played in England

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I read on NFL.com’s new crappy GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “good win for the JAAAAGGGGSSSSSS !!!!!!!! but the crowd in the stands sucked balls today, the stands really looked bad on t.v. today :(”

Stupid stands gotta get their act together.

2. “On the Bucs website it has a section to purchase tickets. I just checked the website a few minutes ago and I’m pretty sure it now says ‘Please purchase tickets’.”

And if this ploy doesn’t work, the Bucs Web site can say, “Purchase tickets, pretty please with a cherry on top!”

3. “cardinals go cardinals all year win loose or tie cardinals till i die az baby nfc champs here to stay i love our haterz haha az jones”

This person then proceeded to eat the “peanut butter” coming out of his butt.

LONDON: To those unaware, this is not a home game for the Buccaneers; this contest will be played in London. In honor of this, I’ll attempt to mix in some British words for our friends across the Pond who plan on betting this game. Cheerio!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Yeah, so that happened. The Patriots thrashed the sodding Titans last week, as Tom Brady threw six bloody touchdowns, including five bloody touchdowns in one bloody quarter.

Excluding jet lag, I can’t find one sodding reason why Brady won’t be able to pick up right where he left off against the bloody Buccaneers, who are a sodding 31st against the pass. I don’t see how Tampa Bay’s sodding secondary can cover Randy Moss, Wes Welker and whatever other blokes Brady will be throwing to.

The Buccaneers are a bit better against the run (25th) than they are versus the pass, but that wasn’t bloody apparent last week when DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart gashed them for 262 bloody yards on 47 bloody carries. Laurence Maroney, who was a bloke given up for dead earlier in the year, was very impressive last week, so I like his bloody chances against the sodding Buccaneers.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Josh Johnson is capable of moving the chains with his feet (he averaged 45 bloody yards on eight rushes last week), but every sodding week he’s guilty of a few sodding mistakes, whether it’s a key interception or a few fumbles.

With the Patriots basically scoring at will, Johnson will be asked to match them point-for-point. He’s physically gifted and exciting to watch, but he’s just not that talented of a bloke.

What the Buccaneers need to do in this sodding game is to keep the ball away from the Patriots as much as possible. They’ll need to run the ball with Cadillac Williams, as New England has proven that it is vulnerable against the bloody run, ranking an alarming 28th against it. Even in a blowout loss, Chris Johnson rushed for 128 yards on 17 carries last week.

RECAP: To recap the knowledge of the British language, I only know five words: bloke, bloody, sodding, cheerio and blimey. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to fit in a “blimey” anywhere. I really need to work on my British because if I ever visit England, I’ll be completely lost knowing only five words. I mean, how do you say “Where is the bathroom?” in British? I have no bloody idea.

To recap this game, I think it’s going to be a blowout. Brady and the Patriots seem to finally be clicking, and I trust Bill Belichick over teenager Raheem Morris in terms of preparing for an international battle. Plus, the Hello, Goodbye trend applies. Or should I say, Hello, Cheerio trend? SURVIVOR PICK: With very limited options this week, I’m using the Patriots. I hate taking road teams, but New England techinically isn’t a road team in this matchup.

The only other possibilities I see are the Colts (over the Rams) and Giants (over the Cardinals), but I’ve used both already.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
The Patriots seem to be getting into their groove, but it’s hard to tell how much these teams will be focused in this London game.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise that the public is pounding the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 87% (167,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Hello, Goodbye: Favorites of 6.5 or more are 33-8 ATS going into a bye (Bill Belichick 2-0).

Patriots are 23-12 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 103-30 as a starter (79-52 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -14.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 54 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Patriots 41, Buccaneers 10
Patriots -15.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 44.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Survivor Pick (6-0)
Patriots 35, Buccaneers 7

Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games
Bills at Panthers, Jets at Raiders, Bears at Bengals, Falcons at Cowboys, Saints at Dolphins, Cardinals at Giants, Eagles at Redskins

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 17

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)