NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)

NFL Picks (2009): 63-42-2 (+$6,575)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 26, 4:25 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)
Line: Panthers by 7. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Panthers -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Panthers -6.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

We are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, a few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 7 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on Thursday.

And finally, there are 51 people still alive in the survivor pool. Thanks to the Eagles and Jets losing, 33 entries were eliminated. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Vegas is so anal. There’s no reason for there to be no line on this game as of Tuesday evening. Trent Edwards had a concussion and may not play, but it doesn’t matter. Both Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick are pretty identical. In fact, I think I’d rather have Fitzpatrick at quarterback because he actually has the balls to take a shot downfield to Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. Fitzpatrick may not have the arm to get it there, but he’d at least stretch the defense a bit.

Regardless of whom Dick Jauron goes with, he’ll rely heavily on his ground attack. The Panthers are 27th versus the rush, so both Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson should have plenty of wide-open running lanes to burst through.

With Lynch and Jackson going, Edwards/Fitzpatrick will have enough time in the pocket to find Owens and Evans downfield (Edwards won’t need much time to check it down to Lynch though). Helping matters is how well rookie right tackle Jamon Meredith played last week. I don’t know why the Packers ever let him go, but Meredith and the rest of Buffalo’s offensive front surrendered only one sack to the Jets on Sunday.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers actually grew a brain and got back to the basics last week. They saw a big weakness in Tampa Bay’s defensive front and exploited it by running the ball with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart a whopping 47 times.

If Carolina sticks to this game plan, it won’t have much of a problem moving the chains against the Bills. Buffalo is ranked dead last against the run and just allowed 309 total rushing yards to Thomas Jones and Leon Washington on Sunday.

The Bills won that game because they were able to intercept Mark Sanchez five times. Their opportunistic secondary, led by a now-healthy Donte Whitner and the emerging Jairus Byrd, will be licking its chops at the prospect of playing Jake Delhomme. The Panthers dominated the Buccaneers last week, yet Tampa Bay was able to keep things close because Delhomme tossed two big interceptions. I’ll be shocked if Delhomme doesn’t commit a couple of turnovers in this game.

RECAP: I imagine that Vegas will post a spread between 4.5 and 6 here, no matter who the quarterback is for the Bills. If so, I’m taking the points. Carolina should not be favored by more than a field goal over anyone in this league. Also, I think Buffalo will start playing better football now that most of its defensive players are healthy again.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 53% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 19-13 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.

Bills are 14-6 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Jake Delhomme is 19-11 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Panthers are 13-23 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.

Panthers are 20-29 ATS at home since 2003.

Jake Delhomme is 14-21 ATS as a home favorite.

Opening Line: Panthers -7.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 67 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Bills 19, Panthers 16
Bills +7 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 37 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Bills 20, Panthers 9

New York Jets (3-3) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)
Line: Jets by 6.5. Total: 34.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Jets -13.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Jets -7.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Jets.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week’s edition:

Hello my name is Dr Robin Jones,pls i need your services to play as the dj at my daughter’s wedding coming up on Saturday 22nd of november 2009 in cleveland.Pls i will like to know if you will be available for the mentioned date?I will like to know your final asking price for the event .Have a good day

I am honored. Seriously. I’ve gotten tons of e-mails from African princes, Russian women in distress, Asian bankers looking to give me free money, and old friends I can’t remember who were honorable enough to tell me that they owe me cash (suckers – I forgot about it!). But I’ve never been asked to DJ some guy’s daughter’s wedding before!

I told him I’d do it. He replied and said he needed my bank account information so he could wire me the money in advance. I gave him my info, and said that I’d be charging $5,000 per hour. Hey, my time is really precious. I still haven’t received payment yet, but rest assured, I will be rich soon!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Andy Reid looked like an idiot last week when he called 54 pass plays compared to just 12 runs. What kind of balance is that? And it’s not like Reid was going up against a 3-4 defense with a huge nose tackle; it was the freaking Raiders and their 21st-ranked rush defense.

Brian Schottenheimer is not a bright play-caller either, but he’ll actually run the ball against the Raiders. He’ll probably still call a bit too many throws for Mark Sanchez, but Oakland will actually have to stop a balanced attack this time around.

With Thomas Jones and Leon Washington presumably moving the chains, Sanchez should be able to use some of his play-action fakes to get the ball to Braylon Edwards. Unfortunately, Sanchez’s confidence is shaken and he is now forcing too many errant passes. It doesn’t help that two of Sanchez’s interceptions last week were the result of Edwards drops.

Jets fans better hope that Sanchez doesn’t keep forcing it into Edwards. Nnamdi Asomugha, who left the game early last week with an eye injury, will be back in the lineup. Meanwhile, Jerricho Cotchery’s status is unknown. Cotchery has a hamstring problem, and recovering from any soft-tissue injury can take a long time.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: For the first time in weeks, JaMarcus Russell looked like he actually knew what he was doing against the Eagles. Maybe this was because Oakland actually used its running game for once. What a crazy concept.

The Jets suffered a huge blow Monday when it was announced that stud nose tackle Kris Jenkins would be out for the year. New York already struggled against the rush (17th), so Justin Fargas could once again have a solid performance.

The big concern here is Russell. Will he put together another solid outing, or will he revert to the guy who fumbles constantly and misses his downfield targets by a mile? Guess we’ll find out on Sunday.

RECAP: Laying the six with the Jets on the road is a tough proposition – especially considering how Sanchez has been playing. Ever since he lost his first NFL game in New Orleans, Sanchez’s confidence has been rattled. The Raiders, meanwhile, actually seem focused for the first time since Week 2.

Two key factors here, one that works for each side:

In Oakland’s Favor: The Jets were winless on the West Coast last year, losing by 19, 3 (to these Raiders), 10 and 10. Now, was this an Eric Mangini/Brett Favre thing, or was it an organizational/core player factor? It’s tough to say, because before 2008, the last time the Jets played a game on the Pacific Coast was on Jan. 8, 2005 (their playoff win over San Diego).

In New York’s Favor: I love betting on coaches playing their former team. The Jets don’t have anyone who used to coach on the Raiders, but Rob Ryan, Rex’s brother, was the defensive coordinator for Oakland from 2004 to 2008. You have to wonder if Rex talked to Rob about any of the Raiders’ weaknesses (if they weren’t apparent already).

With all of this said, I go back to a rattled Sanchez having to play in a hostile environment. I just don’t trust him right now, and I can’t lay the six with him.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Jets are really spiraling downward, and Mark Sanchez seems to have lost his confidence. The Raiders, meanwhile, seem like they’ve finally gotten things figured out.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No one believes in the Raiders yet? Even with their pigeon?

Percentage of money on New York: 76% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Raiders are 9-19 ATS in October since 2001.

Raiders are 12-29 ATS at home the previous 42 instances.

Opening Line: Jets -7.

Opening Total: 34.

Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Jets 13, Raiders 10
Raiders +6.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 34.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Jets 38, Raiders 0

Chicago Bears (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
Line: Pick. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Bengals -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Bengals -3.

Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Bears.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s a bonus Video of the Week segment. You’re getting two hilarious YouTube clips for the price of one. I’d like to thank e-mailer Raymond R. for sending over these awesome Cleveland Tourism Videos: Part 1 and Part 2.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The consensus opinion that general NFL fans have of Jay Cutler is that he’s an interception-throwing machine. Cutler has tossed six picks in his two national TV appearances, but it’s worth noting that he has only one interception otherwise. Cutler apparently feels like he needs to impress the masses, perhaps because of the whole offseason fiasco with the Broncos.

This game isn’t on national TV, so look for a better game out of Cutler. Cutler definitely caught a huge break because Antwan Odom, who led the league in sacks going into last weekend, is now out for the year. Cutler will have solid protection and should be able to find Devin Hester, Greg Olsen and Johnny Knox downfield.

One thing the Bears will be hoping for is Domata Peko’s absence. Peko, Cincinnati’s top interior defensive lineman, left the Texans game in the first quarter with a knee problem. The injury isn’t considered severe, but there’s a chance he could miss this game. If he does, that’ll help Matt Forte, who is really struggling this year because of horrendous blocking up front.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Cedric Benson had been running over everyone, including Baltimore’s vaunted rush defense, so it was strange to see him struggle with 44 yards off 16 carries against the Texans’ then-32nd-ranked rush defense.

The Bears, who give up just 3.7 yards per carry, managed to hold Michael Turner in check last week. I think they’ll be able to do the same against Benson, forcing Carson Palmer into unfavorable passing situations.

That said, Palmer is good enough, and has the weapons to move the chains and put together a few scoring drives, but he’ll take a few sacks from a Chicago defense that has 14 already this year.

RECAP: The Bengals are 4-2. They’ve played three games in which they were expected to win (Denver, Cleveland and Houston), and participated in three contests where they were huge underdogs (Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Baltimore).

The Bengals struggled in the former set of games, and won each contest in the latter set. Think about it – everyone had Cincinnati beating Houston last week, yet the Bengals lost by 11. Three weeks ago, everyone thought Cincinnati would walk all over Cleveland. Didn’t happen.

Once again, the Bengals are expected to win. They’re favored by only 1.5 points, but they’re taking on a 3-2 squad that just lost on national TV. I really don’t like them in this situation.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

The Bengals don’t produce when they’re expected to win.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

This one-sided action has allowed Vegas to come out with a smaller line on Cincinnati.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 68% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Road Rules: Lovie Smith is 6-3 ATS in his second road game (3-0 ATS after a loss).

Bengals are 5-11 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Bengals 20
Bears PK (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 42.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Bengals 45, Bears 10

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-2)
Line: Cowboys by 4.5. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Cowboys -2.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

If you missed it the past few weeks, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 6 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, Emmitt battles the Dolphins, but the game is overshadowed by another heritage month celebration in Miami.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I listed the Falcons as an overrated Vegas team for the first 5-6 weeks of the season. Overrated Vegas teams generally have great offenses and poor defenses. Because people like to bet on high-octane teams, the oddsmakers can boost the spread on these squads by 2-4 points.

However, something has changed. I don’t know how it happened, but the Falcons suddenly have a very solid defense. Save for one game (at New England), Atlanta has surrendered 20 or less points in every contest.

So, how has this happened? Well, the Falcons have done well against the run the past two weeks. They’re also getting a pair of sacks each game, which helps a secondary that’s ranked ninth versus the pass. The injury to Brian Williams hurts, but I don’t consider it a back-breaker.

The Cowboys are a fluff team because of their big names (Tony Romo, Roy Williams, Jason Witten), but they have no substance. Left tackle Flozell Adams, who has allowed three sacks and has been whistled for seven penalties already, will struggle against John Abraham. Romo, who has been pretty mediocre all year, won’t be able to do much with pressure in his face.

Dallas should be able to run the ball on Atlanta in theory, but not if Marion Barber receives most of the carries. Barber is hobbled with a quad injury, which is basically the same thing as an annoying hamstring for receivers because it’s soft tissue. Barber has been very ineffective since being forced into the lineup. Tashard Choice would be the better option here. In fact, I’d hold Barber out entirely to let him heal.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: A major reason why the Cowboys are struggling is because of their defense. They’re 20th against both the run and the pass, and that’s with three of their opponents being tomato cans (Tampa Bay, Carolina, Kansas City).

Matt Ryan has been sacked just twice this year, and I can’t see that number going up against Dallas’ mediocre pass rush. With Michael Turner running well, Ryan will have all the time he needs to find his open receivers downfield. It won’t be a pretty display for the Cowboys’ defense.

RECAP: This really reminds me of last week’s Broncos-Chargers tilt. You have a perennially overrated team (Dallas, San Diego) inexplicably favored over an under-appreciated and rising squad (Atlanta, Denver). Aside from public perception, there really is no reason why the Cowboys should be favored here.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Pretty big game for both teams. No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The Falcons are a publicly backed underdog. Not much of a surprise because people are down on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 77% (180,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Tony Romo is 20-11 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Retractable roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Falcons 31, Cowboys 20
Falcons +4.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 47.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Cowboys 37, Falcons 21

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Line: Saints by 6.5. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Saints -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Saints -7.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Saints.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Oct. 19, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Having to See Babies. 2) The Rush Limbaugh Controversy. 3) Old Liar/Pervert.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Wow. What a performance. Drew Brees absolutely torched the Giants’ top-ranked secondary last week, as he went 23-of-30 for 369 yards and four touchdowns.

It’s hard to imagine Brees slowing down, but let’s not forget that he was held to less than 200 yards against the Bills and the Jets – two non-conference foes. At Buffalo, Brees was just 16-of-29 for 172 yards. This is just proof that he is mortal. That said, I’m aware that there’s a huge difference between the Bills and Dolphins in terms of pass defense. Buffalo is actually ranked second. Miami is 30th.

To stop Brees, the Dolphins will need to put pressure on him without sending more than four players. Miami’s pass rush has done well of late, but Brees is protected by one of the top offensive lines in the business. I doubt he gets touched in this contest.

The one bit of good news the Dolphins have here is that they should be able to take away the run without much effort. They ranked second versus opposing ground attacks, so it’s not like they’ll have to be afraid of Brees’ play-action fakes or anything.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins’ offense has improved tremendously with Chad Henne at quarterback. Unlike his predecessor, Henne can stretch the opposition with his great arm strength, which opens up room for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, who are both averaging about five yards per carry this season.

New Orleans’ defense is really good now, as the team ranks eighth versus the rush. However, the Saints have never seen anything like the Wildcat before. And with a battle against arch rival Atlanta next week, I doubt Sean Payton is overly concerned about taking a whole week to prepare for it.

Unlike the Saints’ previous opponents, I believe the Dolphins will be able to run the ball on them, opening up manageable third-down situations for Henne.

RECAP: I think this is a terrible spot for the Saints. They’re coming off an emotional home statement victory against the Giants. After the Dolphins, whom they’re expected to easily handle (according to Vegas and the public action on this game), they battle the hated Falcons on Monday night.

This is just a weird game for New Orleans. The Dolphins are a non-conference foe they see every four years, so they’re not too familiar with their style of offense or their personnel. And really, if the Saints lose this contest, it’s not a huge deal. Next week’s tilt versus Atlanta is the one that really matters.

Meanwhile, the emotional edge will clearly be on Miami’s side. The Dolphins are a team that began the year 0-3 because they ran into three very tough opponents (and played them all close, by the way). Now, they’ve won two in a row and are gaining confidence. This is clearly a much bigger game for Miami than it is for New Orleans, as falling to 2-4 and two games behind New England will make qualifying for the playoffs improbable.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

Major Sandwich Situation. The Saints just won an emotional game against the Giants. Next week, they host arch rival Atlanta. This non-conference game against a 2-3 foe doesn’t mean anything to them.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

No surprise that the public is pounding the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 90% (194,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 45-29 ATS on the road since 2000.

Drew Brees is 12-5 ATS as a road favorite.

Dolphins are 4-13 ATS after a bye the previous 17 years (1-0 ATS under Tony Sparano).

Opening Line: Saints -6.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 87 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Dolphins 31, Saints 27
Dolphins +6.5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 47.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Saints 46, Dolphins 34 (Read my Dolphins meltdown rant here (scroll down)

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at New York Giants (5-1)
Line: Giants by 7. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Giants -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Giants -6.5.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Giants.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’m doing the same.

Bo-Bo started Miles Austin for the first four weeks of the year. Prior to Week 5, Bo-Bo cut him. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to get him back.

The good news for Bo-Bo is that Joe Flacco once again had a huge game for him, scoring 23 points in this traditional league. The bad news is that aside from Flacco, no other player of his had more than 10 points.

Bo-Bo lost 103-70, and is now 1-5. When he won his first game of the year, everyone was thinking championship. Now, it’s pretty obvious that this is yet another fantasy season down the drain for poor Bo-Bo. Here’s his lineup:

QB: Joe Flacco
RB1: Michael Turner
RB2: Marshawn Lynch
WR1: Terrell Owens
WR2: Jacoby Jones
WR3: Kelley Washington
TE: Chris Cooley
K: David Akers
DEF: Vikings Defense

And yes, there’s no need to check – this is the same lineup Bo-Bo went with last week. I guess he couldn’t find an upgrade for Jacoby Jones and Kelley Washington.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Arizona’s defense has been awesome this year. They’re great against the run, and while they’ve struggled a bit to defend the pass, they pressure the quarterback pretty well (13 sacks). Matt Hasselbeck had absolutely no time to throw last week.

The problem here is that the Giants just don’t allow sacks; Eli Manning has gone down only three times all year. He’s protected by a great offensive line which will give him time to scan the field and locate an open Steve Smith or Mario Manningham. Arizona is just 19th against aerial attacks.

As mentioned, the Cardinals squash opposing ground games, ranking first versus the run. However, the Giants have proven that over the years that their rushing attack can be at least somewhat effective against anyone. I don’t think Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will light it up or anything, but I expect them to have solid outings.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Saints exposed New York’s biggest weakness last week, as Drew Brees launched deep balls all afternoon against the Giants safeties. Many seem to think that Kurt Warner will be able to pick up where Brees left off.

I don’t. Warner had a very good performance at Seattle, but he once again threw nothing but short passes. His longest completion was just 22 yards. And aside from a 40-yard connection to Jerheme Urban this season, his longest connection is 26 yards to Larry Fitzgerald. Just last year, all four of his top wideouts had completions of 55 yards or longer.

This goes to show that Warner is still not completely recovered from his hip surgery. He’s hard to resort to all short junk this season. That may work against the Seahawks and the Texans of the NFL, but the Giants are going to put tons of pressure on Warner and force him into sacks, fumbles and interceptions.

RECAP: One angle I love to use is betting on the Patriots after they lose. It hits almost every time.

Well, it’s time to start looking at the Giants in that same scenario. Eli Manning is 14-6 against the spread after a loss since 2005, and 6-1 against the spread after a double-digit defeat the past 2-and-a-half years.

The Giants were completely embarrassed in New Orleans last week. They’re a proud team and they’ll be looking for vindication on national TV Sunday night.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

A proud team like the Giants will be out for blood after getting embarrassed at New Orleans.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Most bettors expect the Giants to bounce back.

Percentage of money on New York: 80% (149,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 14-6 ATS after a loss since 2005.

Giants are 6-1 ATS after a double-digit loss since 2007.

Giants are 15-18 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 33 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -7.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Clear, 48 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Giants 34, Cardinals 17
Giants -7 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 46.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Cardinals 24, Giants 17

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) at Washington Redskins (2-4)
Line: Eagles by 8.5. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Eagles -4.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Eagles -6.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see two divisional rivals coming off stupid losses to crappy teams. Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Washington D.C., the city that never sleeps! Tonight, we have my Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Washington Nationals! Guys, this is going to be a sure blowout, don’t you think? My Eagles are awesome. Go Eagles!

Emmitt: This will definitely be a blowed out. This will… uhh… blowed out… I mean… blew out… blewed… blowed… uhh… blewn… uhh… blow…

Reilly: I’m a bit concerned here, Coach, because my Eagles just lost to the Raiders. But clearly they were sick or something. My Eagles are so awesome that they can’t lose to anybody. E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!

Herm: The Eagles have problems on their offensive line! The Raiders just blew through like it was 7-11! The doors were not closed 24 hours a day! I mean they were open 24 hours a day! They were open! Look at the doors! Look at them! Wide open! Not closed! Not closed! Wide open!

Reilly: Emmitt, this Washington team will obviously lose big time. Do you think they’ll even be able to score a point? Maybe they’ll get one point by accident, but I doubt it.

Emmitt: One of the reason the Washington Redskin strugglin’ this month is because they do not has the ability to put up many point. When you do not score many point, you cannot score more point than the other team. And when you do not has more point that the other team, chances are you are losin’ the game! To win this game, the Redskin obviously need to score more point than the Philadelphia Eagles, who will also be lookin’ to score a lot of point themself.

Reilly: That makes a lot of sense, Emmitt, even from a former Cowboy! I hate the Cowboys! Coach, what do you think? Are the Cowboys really evil, or just a bit evil?

Herm: The Cowboys are not evil! The Eagles are not evil! The Redskins are not evil! The Giants are not evil! The NFC East is not evil! Definitely not evil! Absolutely not evil! No one’s evil! Except for one person! One person’s evil! I know who the person is! I know who’s evil! I can tell you who’s evil! I can tell you! Here he is! Here’s the person! Here’s the evil person! The evil person is… uhh… umm…

Reilly: We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Ugh. What can I say, but ugh? After the 14-6 loss to the Chiefs, Jim Zorn told the media that his offense is better than six points. Well, he’s right about that because the Redskins average 13 points per game – which still wouldn’t have been enough to beat Kansas City.

Jason Campbell will start this game, and he’ll throw nothing but short junk to Chris Cooley and Santana Moss. It’s not like he’ll have a choice; his offensive line is so banged up that even the defensively inept Chiefs managed three sacks last week. Imagine how many sacks the Eagles will accumulate.

The Redskins won’t be able to run the ball either. They had problems creating lanes for Clinton Portis against Kansas City’s 29th-ranked rush defense. The Eagles are fifth.

The only thing that may save the Redskins here could be long gains by Cooley and Moss after the catch. Asante Samuel and Philadelphia’s entire linebacking corps can’t tackle. Seriously, JaMarcus Russell to Zach Miller for 86 yards? It’s not like they had to defend Stabler to Branch, or Gannon to Rice/Brown.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Most of the people who are betting the Eagles in this game are looking at how inept the Redskins offensive line is. Perhaps they should take a gander at the other side. Philadelphia simply couldn’t block the Raiders last week. Oakland had a whopping six sacks, and that doesn’t even tell the whole story; Richard Seymour and company were in the backfield on almost every play.

Andy Reid refuses to run the ball, which means that Donvoan McNabb will be throwing about 80 percent of the time again. One thing the Redskins can do well is pressure the quarterback; they have 15 sacks, thanks to Albert Haynesworth’s double teams opening things up for Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo. The three have a combined 12 sacks.

McNabb has tons of weapons and he’ll hit a big play here and there, but I’m not counting on the Eagles moving the chains consistently.

RECAP: The public is all over the Eagles, but I won’t be. The Redskins are a worse team, but Philadelphia has similar problems in terms of blocking.

For whatever reason, the Redskins just have the Eagles’ number; they swept them last year by scores of 23-17 and 10-3. And remember that like last season, Washington was the inferior squad.

The Redskins will also be playing for Zorn’s job. Zorn might be completely inept, but the players do like him. In fact, several of the players wanted Daniel Snyder to come out and say that Zorn was secure in his role for the rest of the season. Maybe they’re just insane, or maybe they like Zorn because he’s a nice guy, but the fact remains that they’ll play hard for coaching life.

MONDAY UPDATE: After some consideration, I’m keeping this at one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Philadelphia will be looking to rebound off a loss. The Redskins will be playing for Jim Zorn’s job (and the players do like the coach). This is a heated rivalry. No edge here.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No one wants any part of the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 89% (249,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Redskins have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Road Rules: Andy Reid is 6-2 ATS on the road after a road loss.

Eagles are 58-35 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 26-16 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 26-17 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 22-11 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 35-22 ATS on the road since 2001.

Andy Reid is 13-9 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 or more.

Redskins are 7-3 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2007.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Eagles 22, Redskins 20
Redskins +8.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 37.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Eagles 27, Redskins 17

Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
Packers at Browns, Chargers at Chiefs, 49ers at Texans, Colts at Rams, Vikings at Steelers, Patriots vs. Buccaneers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Chargers +1, Giants -1 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330

Live Dog: Vikings +200 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: 49ers +150 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Raiders +230 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Bills +250 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$250

Live Dog: Dolphins +230 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Falcons +170 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Redskins +260 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Pyschological Edge Parlay: Browns +9, Colts -13.5, Dolphins +7, Raiders +6, Giants -7, Redskins +7 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

2009 NFL Season Betting Props

NFL Picks - Nov. 17

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)