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An e-mailer pointed out to me that I had the wrong side in the Chicago-Seattle (Week 2, 2009) game because I was backing a team that just beat a defending Super Bowl champion as an underdog (not coming off a bye) and was playing on the road. Historically, he said, this was a losing proposition. So, being very curious and having a lot of time on Friday afternoon, I compiled the data of this trend in the past decade. I came up with some pretty interesting numbers: |
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Beating a Super Bowl Champion as a Favorite:
Team |
Coach |
ATS Record since 2000 |
Home Favorite |
Home Underdog |
Road Favorite |
Road Underdog |
ATL/strong> |
Mike Smith |
1-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
BAL |
Brian Billick |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
BAL |
John Harbaugh |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
CHI |
Marc Trestman |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
DAL |
Jason Garrett |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
DAL |
Wade Phillips |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
DEN |
John Fox |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
DEN |
Mike Shanahan |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
IND |
Tony Dungy |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
KC |
Andy Reid |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
KC |
Dick Vermeil |
1-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
MIA |
Dave Wannstedt |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
PHI |
Andy Reid |
1-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
PIT |
Mike Tomlin |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
SF |
Mike Nolan |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
TEN |
Jeff Fisher |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
Total Record |
8-8 |
1-2 |
1-0 |
3-2 |
3-4 |
Beating a Super Bowl Champion as an Underdog:
Team |
Coach |
ATS Record since 2000 |
Home Favorite |
Home Underdog |
Road Favorite |
Road Underdog |
ATL |
Dan Quinn |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
ATL |
Mike Smith |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
ATL |
Jim Mora Jr. |
2-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
BAL |
John Harbaugh |
1-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-1 |
BAL |
Brian Billick |
1-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
CAR |
Ron Rivera |
2-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
CAR |
John Fox |
0-2 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
CAR |
George Seifert |
1-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
CHI |
Lovie Smith |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
CIN |
Marvin Lewis |
1-3 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
1-2 |
0-0 |
CIN |
Dick LeBeau |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
CLE |
Eric Mangini |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
CLE |
Romeo Crennel |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
CLE |
Butch Davis |
1-1 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
DAL |
Jason Garrett |
2-1 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
1-0 |
DEN |
Gary Kubiak |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
DEN |
Mike Shanahan |
0-2 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
GB |
Mike Sherman |
2-1 |
2-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
HOU |
Bill O’Brien |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
IND |
Tony Dungy |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
JAX |
Jack Del Rio |
1-2 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-2 |
KC |
Andy Reid |
2-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
KC |
Romeo Crennel |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
KC |
Todd Haley |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
KC |
Gunther Cunningham |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
LAR |
Sean McVay |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
MIA |
Nick Saban |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
NE |
Bill Belichick |
2-0 |
2-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
NO |
Jim Haslett |
0-2 |
0-2 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
NYJ |
Todd Bowles |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
NYJ |
Herm Edwards |
1-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
OAK |
Tom Cable |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
OAK |
Art Shell |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
OAK |
Bill Callahan |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
PHI |
Chip Kelly |
1-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
PIT |
Mike Tomlin |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
PIT |
Bill Cowher |
2-0 |
1-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
SD |
Mike McCoy |
2-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
2-0 |
SD |
Marty Schottenheimer |
0-2 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
SEA |
Pete Carroll |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
SF |
Dennis Erickson |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
SF |
Dennis Erickson |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
TB |
Dirk Koetter |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
TEN |
Mike Vrabel |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
TEN |
Mike Mularkey |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
WAS |
Mike Shanahan |
1-0 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
WAS |
Norv Turner |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
Total Record |
33-35 |
13-15 |
3-1 |
6-9 |
11-10 |
NFL Betting Trends:
NFL Betting Trends: NFL Preseason Coaching Records
NFL Betting Trends: Random NFL Trends
NFL Betting Trends: Divisional Rivalry History
NFL Betting Trends: Beating the Champ
NFL Betting Trends: Coming off a Bye
NFL Betting Trends: Divisional Dogs of Seven
NFL Betting Trends: Divisional Revenge
NFL Betting Trends: First Loss
NFL Betting Trends: Former Coaches
NFL Betting Trends: Hello, Good Bye
NFL Betting Trends: Hello, Good Bye II
NFL Betting Trends: Home Shutout
NFL Betting Trends: Losing as a Favorite
NFL Betting Trends: Mid-Season Coaching Fires
NFL Betting Trends: New NFL Stadiums
NFL Betting Trends: Pacific Teams on the East Coast
NFL Betting Trends: Post-Close Road Wins
NFL Betting Trends: Post-Monday Night
NFL Betting Trends: Second Road Game
NFL Betting Trends: Winning Streak Snapped
NFL Betting Trends: Zero Wins
