NFL Betting Trends: First Loss

A couple of teams each year begin their season with a 5-0 mark or better. But what happens after they lose their first game?

In college, it’s obvious. Those squads lose the next contest because of the NCAA’s flawed BCS system.

In the NFL, however, the opposite seems to happen. Yes, 7-5 overall since 2002, but if you take out Tony Dungy’s 1-3 mark, you’ll see that betting on teams after their first loss can be lucrative.

Team	Coach	ATS Record After Losing First Game After 5-0 Start or Better	As a Favorite	As a Dog
ARZ	Ken Whisenhunt	0-0	0-0	0-0
ATL	Mike Smith	0-0	0-0	0-0
BAL	John Harbaugh	0-0	0-0	0-0
BUF	Dick Jauron	0-0	0-0	0-0
CAR	John Fox	1-0	0-0	1-0
CHI	Lovie Smith	1-0	0-0	1-0
CIN	Marvin Lewis	0-0	0-0	0-0
CLE	Romeo Crennel	0-0	0-0	0-0
DAL	Wade Phillips	1-0	1-0	0-0
DEN	Josh McDaniels	0-1	0-0	0-1
DEN	Mike Shanahan	0-0	0-0	0-0
DET	Rod Marinelli	0-0	0-0	0-0
GB	Mike McCarthy	0-1	0-1	0-0
HOU	Gary Kubiak	0-0	0-0	0-0
IND	Jim Caldwell	0-1	0-0	0-1
IND	Tony Dungy	1-3	1-2	0-1
JAX	Jack Del Rio	0-0	0-0	0-0
KC	Herman Edwards	1-0	1-0	0-0
MIA	Tony Sparano	0-0	0-0	0-0
MIN	Brad Childress	1-0	0-0	1-0
NE	Bill Belichick	1-0	0-0	1-0
NO	Sean Payton	0-1	0-1	0-0
NYG	Tom Coughlin	0-1	0-1	0-0
NYJ	Eric Mangini	0-0	0-0	0-0
OAK	Lane Kiffin	0-0	0-0	0-0
PHI	Andy Reid	1-0	1-0	0-0
PIT	Mike Tomlin	0-0	0-0	0-0
SD	Norv Turner	0-0	0-0	0-0
SEA	Mike Holmgren	0-0	0-0	0-0
SF	Mike Nolan	0-0	0-0	0-0
STL	Scott Linehan	0-0	0-0	0-0
TB	Jon Gruden	0-0	0-0	0-0
TEN	Jeff Fisher	1-0	1-0	0-0
WAS	Jim Zorn	0-0	0-0	0-0

FA	Mike Tice	0-1	0-1	0-0
FA	Dick Vermeil	0-1	0-1	0-0

	Total Record	9-10	5-7	4-3