NFL Betting Trends: Post-Close Road Wins

There’s a trend out there that I like to call the “Statfox Trend.” Those of you who have followed my picks over the years know that it’s very effective.

The premise: In Weeks 2-10, bet against any home favorite coming off a road victory of 1-3 points. Teams in that situation are just 17-38 against the spread since 2000.

Road wins are hard to come by in the NFL. If a team is victorious away from home by a small margin, maybe they do too much celebrating and aren’t focused during the week. Who knows? The fact remains you can make tons of money with this trend.

Of course, there are exceptions. Here is a list of how each coach has fared coming off a slim road victory early in the season.

Team	Coach coming off road win of 1-3 points in Weeks 2-10	Record since 2000
ARZ	Ken Whisenhunt	0-1
ATL	Mike Smith	1-1
BAL	John Harbaugh	1-2
BUF	Chan Gailey	0-1
BUF	Dick Jauron	0-2
CAR	John Fox	0-2
CHI	Lovie Smith	1-2
CIN	Marvin Lewis	1-1
CLE	Mike Pettine	1-0
DAL	Jason Garrett	0-1
DEN	Mike Shanahan	0-1
GB	Mike McCarthy	1-0
HOU	Gary Kubiak	0-3
IND	Tony Dungy	2-4
JAX	Jack Del Rio	0-3
MIN	Brad Childress	0-1
NE	Bill Belichick	1-1
NO	Sean Payton	1-2
PHI	Chip Kelly	0-1
PHI	Andy Reid	1-2
SD	Norv Turner	0-1
SEA	Pete Carroll	1-0
SEA	Mike Holmgren	1-3
SF	Jim Harbaugh	1-0
SF	Mike Nolan	1-0
STL	Scott Linehan	1-0
TB	Jon Gruden	2-1
TEN	Mike Munchak	0-1
TEN	Jeff Fisher	2-1

FA	Brian Billick	2-1
FA	Dave Campo	0-1
FA	Dom Capers	0-1
FA	Bill Cowher	1-2
FA	Butch Davis	1-0
FA	Jim Fassell	0-1
FA	Joe Gibbs	0-1
FA	Jim Haslett	0-2
FA	Steve Mariucci	1-3
FA	Mike Martz	1-0
FA	Dave McGinnis	0-1
FA	Jim Mora Jr.	1-0
FA	Dan Reeves	0-1
FA	Marty Schottenheimer	1-0
FA	George Seifert	0-1
FA	Mike Sherman	0-1
FA	Dick Vermeil	1-1
FA	Dave Wannstedt	0-1
FA	Gregg Williams	1-0

	Total Record	30-56