NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)

NFL Picks (2014): 44-44-4 (-$35)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 13, 4:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -3.
Thursday, Oct. 9, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Colts.

WEEK 5 RECAP: It was nice to have a winning week, (9-4-2, +$255), but early Sunday afternoon was frustrating. I suffered two key losses: Falcons +4.5 and Saints -10. The former was up 20-10 in the middle of the third quarter, but just stopped scoring despite playing brilliantly offensively earlier. I thought we were safe at 20-10 because even two New York touchdowns would’ve produced a slim cover, but the Falcons self-destructed.

New Orleans was a more-legitimate loss, as Drew Brees inexplicably played like trash. I do wonder how the Saints would’ve finished had Jimmy Graham and Jonathan Goodwin not gone down with injuries. The Saints were up 13-0 before they both went out, and they struggled to score after that. I’ve always said that the most difficult thing NFL coaches have to do is make in-game adjustments to key injuries. Having said that, the Saints still would’ve dominated the Buccaneers if they were the elite team they’ve been considered to be in the professional betting community. I feel as though I have to downgrade them as a consequence.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Texans’ defense did a great job of keeping the team in the game last week, but it’ll have another tough challenge this Thursday against Andrew Luck. The former No. 1 overall pick has been on a tear, throwing for 300-plus yards in his past three outings. He has generated 10 total touchdowns to just three interceptions in that span.

Stopping any elite quarterback requires a forceful pass rush, but the Texans don’t exactly have one. Excluding J.J. Watt, Houston doesn’t have any players who can consistently get to the opposing signal-caller. That’ll change once Jadeveon Clowney returns to the lineup – perhaps in Week 7 – but the Texans’ own No. 1 pick won’t be back for this contest.

Houston will also have to focus on stopping the rush. The Colts have been utilizing Ahmad Bradshaw more frequently, and they’ve been rewarded with pleasant results, as the former Giant has averaged 5.1 yards per carry this season. Bradshaw committed a costly fumble last week, but he’ll be able to rebound versus a defense that is ranked 27th versus the run in terms of YPC (4.79).

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans will have to establish their own ground attack to have any sort of shot at winning this contest. Getting Arian Foster going will allow them to keep Luck off the field. Fortunately for them, the Colts happen to rank a mere 18th in terms of stopping the run (4.32 YPC). Foster, who appeared completely healthy last week, should be able to pick up where he left off against Dallas.

Foster will also permit Ryan Fitzpatrick to operate in short-yardage situations, which should lead to plenty of first downs. Fitzpatrick is obviously not the most gifted quarterback the NFL has ever seen, but he can manage games and avoid mistakes if everything is going right around him. Indianapolis’ secondary, which is missing LaRon Landry, won’t pose much of a challenge.

Something the Colts might be able to do on this side of the ball is generate a pass rush. I wouldn’t have considered this a possibility a couple of weeks ago, but they put an ample amount of heat on Joe Flacco this past Sunday, which was remarkable considering that Flacco hadn’t been sacked since Week 1. Former first-rounder Bjoern Werner flashed for the first time.

RECAP: The public is all over the Colts. Sometimes the public play is the right one, and that’s what I believe to be the case here. I actually like Indianapolis for three units. Here’s why:

1. Thursday games are different. The superior team – especially if it has the better quarterback – has a huge advantage. Luck is built to win this sort of game.

2. The Texans are coming off a road overtime loss on the road against their in-state rival. They put everything they had into that game and could be exhausted off such short rest.

3. This may surprise you, but divisional home underdogs in night games have a poor track record of covering. How poor? Excluding December games, divisional home dogs of less than nine points are 30-55 against the spread on national TV since 1989.

Again, Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Texans. I am not. I still like the Colts, but I’m dropping this to two units because of the issues the Colts are having with their offensive line. I don’t think this will preclude Indianapolis from winning, but J.J. Watt is going to dominate the trenches even more than usual.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A big game for both teams, as it’s for first place in the division.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

All the money is on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 75% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Colts have won 20 of the 24 meetings.

Texans are 10-6 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Colts 31, Texans 24
Colts -3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 33, Texans 28

Denver Broncos (3-1) at New York Jets (1-4)
Line: Broncos by 9.5. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -6.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

WEEK 6 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve identified poisonous teams that I would never bet on to save me from some bad picks. I added the Titans last week. Lo and behold, they managed to allow the Browns to mount the greatest comeback for any road team in NFL history. Granted, Charlie Whitehurst entered the game for Jake Locker, but Tennessee’s defense still couldn’t contain Brian Hoyer and his mediocre weapons.

I think the Rams may need to be considered poisonous. I’m not sure I want to add them yet, but I want to be cautious with them going forward. They’ve now managed to blow two games in which they outplayed their opponent. They didn’t cover against the Cowboys in Week 3, and they needed a miraculous backdoor cover to beat the number in Philadelphia. Austin Davis is actually doing a good job for St. Louis; otherwise, the team would be just as bad as the Raiders and Jaguars.

Poisonous Teams:
Raiders
Jaguars
Titans
Rams (maybe?)

Three weeks ago, I discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. That dynamic was 9-3 against the spread since Week 2 entering last weekend. How did it do in Week 5? Here are the results:

Before Week 4	After Week 4	ATS Result
Falcons PK	Falcons +4.5	Falcons lose
Patriots -3	Patriots +1.5	Patriots cover
Texans +3	Texans +6	Texans cover

This dynamic is now 11-4 ATS, which is remarkable. Here are this week’s value lines (movements of two or more without serious injuries):

Before Week 5	After Week 5
Steelers -1.5	Steelers +2
Bills PK	Bills +3
Jets +6	Jets +8

There are just three games for now. I get why the Buffalo line moved so much – a natural overreaction to a nationally televised game – and the Jets’ movement is predictable, but what’s up with the Steelers-Browns spread? Did the Cleveland comeback impress the public that much?

The Bills fit a dynamic I want to discuss this week. I want to delve into home underdogs, since there are eight this week:

Texans +2.5 vs. Colts
Jets +7.5 vs. Broncos
Dolphins +3.5 vs. Packers
Vikings +2 vs. Lions
Bills +3 vs. Patriots
Buccaneers +3 vs. Ravens
Raiders +7 vs. Chargers
Rams +3.5 vs. 49ers

Teams as home underdogs are always in the best position to cover; they’ve fared better than road dogs, road favorites and home favorites this decade:

Home Underdog	180-174 ATS
Road Underdog	347-347 ATS
Road Favorite	174-180 ATS
Home Favorite	347-347 ATS

It’s not anything substantial, but there’s something there, as most sharps prefer home dogs more than any other situation. The reason for this is because road favorites are overvalued, since the public doesn’t completely factor in the amount of points that need to be adjusted for homefield. For instance, someone in the comment board below wrote last week that the Bengals needed to be -5 or -6 against the Patriots. I responded: “So you think the Bengals would be -11 or -12 over New England at home?”

Move three points to neutral and then three more points for the other homefield, and that’s what you’d get. Cincinnati was just -7 versus Tennessee, so a spread of 11 or 12 over the Patriots, who are much better than the Titans, would’ve made no sense. Heck, Bengals -3 was illogical, since it meant they’d be -9 over the Pats at home. The Titans are not two points better than New England. This is stuff casual bettors don’t take into account.

When looking at a home underdog, it’s always useful to flip the spread around to see what it would look like at the other location. Let’s do that for the eight games listed and see if they make sense:

Texans +8.5 at Colts

Indianapolis was just -7 versus Tennessee, so this is higher than it should be. Having said that, I think Vegas is adjusting to a Thursday night game. We’ve seen the superior teams wallop their inferior opponents on Thursdays, so this might be a natural inflation.

Jets +13.5 at Broncos

The Chargers were -13 over the Jaguars, and I think there’s a similar disparity between these two teams. This number is very fair.

Dolphins +9.5 at Packers

The Vikings were +9 at Green Bay. Are Miami and Minnesota about equal? Probably. There’s not much value here.

Vikings +8 at Lions

Finally, we have something. The Lions, with Calvin Johnson, were just -7 over the Bills, and the Vikings are most definitely superior to what Buffalo was perceived to be a week ago. If this game were in Detroit, we might see a -6 number; perhaps even a smaller one if Megatron is ruled out.

Bills +9 at Patriots

This most definitely makes no sense. As I just mentioned, Detroit was -7 over Buffalo, so this is telling us that the Patriots are two points better than the Lions with Calvin Johnson. That’s a fallacy because those teams are about equal.

Buccaneers +9 at Ravens

This is another bizarre spread. Baltimore was just -3.5 over Carolina, and I’d say the Panthers, as they were perceived in Week 4, are about three points better than the Buccaneers are now. If this game were in Baltimore, I think the Ravens would be -7. Thus, it appears as though we’re getting two points of value.

Raiders +13 at Chargers

The Raiders are just as bad as the Jaguars, so don’t think there’s any value here.

Rams +9.5 at 49ers

This is close. The 49ers were -5.5 over the Eagles, who opened a touchdown favorite versus St. Louis. It makes sense that the 49ers would be something close to -9.5 over the Rams.

Betting is all about finding value, and I think it makes sense that Buffalo, Minnesota and Tampa Bay provide the most of the eight home dogs this week.

DENVER OFFENSE: Will Peyton Manning break Brett Favre’s career touchdown record in this game? It’s certainly possible. I never would’ve imagined saying that about a Rex Ryan defense a couple of years ago, but general manager John Idzik has completely bungled everything, and Ryan barely has anything to work with as a consequence. His secondary is an atrocity and hasn’t been able to stop any capable quarterback it has battled this year, so Manning can definitely throw six scores this Sunday.

The Jets can’t cover at all, but they can still do a couple of things well on this side of the ball: stop the run and get to the quarterback. Thanks mostly to Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson, New York leads the league in sacks and ranks sixth against ground attacks. The way to stop any elite quarterback is generate a pass rush without blitzing very much, and the Jets can do that if Wilkerson, Richardson and the supporting cast are at their best.

With that in mind though, I just don’t see New York having much success against Manning. There are just too many holes in the defensive backfield, and No. 18 has too many weapons to work with. If the Jets had any sort of talent in their secondary, they’d have a legitimate shot, but that’s not the case.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Of course, it doesn’t help the defense that the Jets can’t sustain drives. Geno Smith started the year with a couple of decent performances, but has regressed each week since. There is some good news for Smith though: First, he’s back on the East Coast, so he won’t have to calculate any time differences. Second, Denver’s defense isn’t as good as San Diego’s. And third, there’s a chance Eric Decker could suit up.

Having Decker back will be key because he’s the only legitimate weapon Smith possesses. The rest of the receiving corps is pure trash, and Denver’s secondary won’t have any issues defending it. Unfortunately for New York, it’s very likely that Decker will be limited in this contest (if he even plays), given that hamstring injuries tend to linger for receivers.

The Jets shouldn’t count on running the ball either. The Broncos are fourth against the rush (3.12 YPC), and they won’t have any problems bottling up the mediocre Chris Ivory or the putrid Chris Johnson, who wastes a down every time he touches the ball.

RECAP: All of the betting concepts say to take the Jets. All of the money is on Denver. The Broncos have several tough games coming up. Teams like the Jets that come off blowout losses tend to rebound. New York is in a good spot because it has lost the spread in three-plus consecutive games. Line value says to take the host. Blah, blah, blah.

I’m picking the Broncos. The Jets are awful. They’ve burned the sharps twice in the past two weeks, and they’ll do so again if the professional bettors get involved (which they haven’t yet). Besides, Manning has always thrived in these meaningless, high-spread games. He could be going for Favre’s record, so that’ll give him incentive to run up the score.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the money is pushing this spread up. The sharps haven’t gotten involved at all, as they know the Jets are a dead team. I have no interest in betting this game.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread keeps rising, as both the public and some sharps are taking advantage of a horrible spread the books posted earlier in the week. Vegas may lose a ton of money on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Broncos are in a Breather Alert, as they have to deal with the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots after this game. The Jets are desperate for a win.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

There’s so much money pouring in on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 89% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Peyton Manning is 40-25 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Broncos 34, Jets 16
Broncos -9.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Broncos 31, Jets 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Line: Browns by 2. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -1.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: The Vegas sportsbooks had record winnings on the Sunday of Week 1 and collected lots of money the following week. They had to give some money back to the public, and they managed to do that the next couple of weeks.

Vegas won back its money this past week. Of the seven highly bet teams, only two covered (Packers, Seahawks). The house won with the Patriots, Panthers, Rams, Buccaneers and Jaguars. With things only slightly in Vegas’ favor, no one will be disappearing in the desert or selling their organs on the black market anytime soon, so I suppose that’s a good thing.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s not sounding like Joe Haden will be able to play this game. Mike Pettine called Haden “iffy” because of a hip injury he sustained this past Sunday. This ordinarily would be terrible news for the Browns, but Haden hasn’t played all that well this year. He’s also had major issues defending Antonio Brown in the past, so maybe letting him rest would actually be beneficial.

Haden is one of many disappointing players on Cleveland’s defense. The Browns are actually different than what the public perceives them to be. Many see them as a scrappy defensive team with a game-manager at quarterback, but Cleveland is just 29th in defensive efficiency. The Browns actually don’t do a single thing well on this side of the ball. They are weak against the run (28th, 4.81 YPC), struggle to cover anyone and fail to generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

With that in mind, Ben Roethlisberger should be able to have a quality outing. Le’Veon Bell will be able to burst for big gains, as he did against the Browns back in Week 1, which will set up Roethlisberger with short-yardage opportunities. His offensive line can have trouble blocking at times – which was the case against the Buccaneers two weeks ago – but it’s difficult to see that being an issue in this contest.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns are better on this side of the ball, which is difficult to believe, given the lack of talent in their receiving corps. But Brian Hoyer has done a good job since winning the starting job in the preseason. His completion percentage hasn’t been great (62.4), but he has maintained a respectable 7.6 YPA and a 6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Because he hasn’t made any mistakes, he’s been in position to lead the team back from big deficits or engineer a game-winning drives.

Hoyer went 19-of-31 for 230 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers back in Week 1. He figures to have more success in this contest. Not only is he at home; he won’t have to deal with the likes of Ryan Shazier, Ike Taylor and Jarvis Jones, all of whom are injured for the Steelers.

The Browns will be able to set up Hoyer with manageable opportunities with their ground attack. Ben Tate was solid in his return back from injury last week, and he should be able to gash the Steelers, who are 25th against the rush (4.67 YPC).

RECAP: I like the Steelers a good deal in this spot. Here’s why:

1. I discussed the line value earlier. This was a pick ’em a week ago. Granted, two is a dead number, but the Steelers are now underdogs because of Cleveland’s historic comeback.

Think about it this way though: What would this spread have been if the Titans had maintained their blowout? Yes, the Browns deserve some credit for coming back, but not all that much because they did so with Charlie Whitehurst unable to move the chains on the other side. If Jake Locker didn’t get hurt, Cleveland probably would’ve lost. If that happened, this number might be Steelers -1.5 or -2.

2. The Browns being favored triggers two things: First, the Steelers are 25-17 ATS as underdogs in the Roethlisberger era (9-5 ATS in divisional games). Second, Pittsburgh has owned Cleveland over the years, winning 26 of the previous 29 meetings. How can the Browns be favored considering that?

3. The Browns could be exhausted after their emotional, comeback victory. They have to get up for a divisional game, but given that Cris Carter and other analysts are already projecting them to go to the playoffs, they may not be very focused.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The action has been pretty split all week, but there’s some late public money coming in on the Steelers. The sharps haven’t pounced on either side yet. I still like the Steelers for three units.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps are split on this game, while the public is betting Pittsburgh. I still like the Steelers for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

The Browns are coming off an emotional victory that required a tremendous comeback. They could be gassed, even in this tough divisional matchup.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Money has been added on to the Steelers as the week progressed.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 69% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 26 of the last 29 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 36-18 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Browns are 7-13 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Browns -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Browns 24
Steelers +2 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Browns 31, Steelers 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)
Line: Titans by 5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Titans -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -3.5.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: TBA.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

So- Carolina @ Baltimore was you’re 2nd hottest bet of the week? When will learn to stop losing big money against Baltimore? If I recall that was a hot 4 star play on your part? I had a big happy smile on my face when I saw that was your 2nd hottest play of the week. I immediately took Baltimore -3 b/c you hated them. What do you have against the Ravens? I suggest you start putting your money on them and you’ll be rich. I’ll give a nice play of the month on Minnesota. Well played there. Just please stop hating on the Ravens. Jezzuz. learn a lesson or two son. Ice up! Baltimore is going to the Super Bowl. Take that bet if you’re smart. Have a nice day, sir. Stop LOSING!!! LMFAO

I hate the Ravens because Joe Flacco and I are sworn enemies. We both liked the same girl growing up. She chose me instead of him. He hated that, so he kidnapped her and killed her. I haven’t been a fan of him ever since.

Stop losing money betting against Baltimore. Every time you go against them I take them and cash out.

If you keep making money, why would you want me to stop betting against them? You should be encouraging me to bet against them.

Can’t wait until the Bengals absolutely stomp on the Patriots and make Walt look retarded. Gotta love how he warps the stats to make the Patriots D that gave up 33 to Tannehill 41 to Alex @#$@ing Smith look not that bad, and then turns around and essentially says a Bengal defense that leads the league in scoring defense isn’t that good. And also that even though they’ve scored over 24 points in each game, their offense sucks because “HURR DURR Andy Dalton hasn’t won a playoff game yet so that means he can’t be any good during the regular season HURR DURR.” Suck a dick you juvenile, autistic prick.

“Suck a dick you juvenile, autistic prick.” Seek counseling. Please. There’s no reason for you to care so much about what someone you don’t know says on the Internet. You’re making this out to be like I banged your mom, or something.

Aww did I hurt poor baby’s feelings? Sorry that I’m tired of reading your bull@#$@ opinions and wanted to sound off before leaving your joke of a site for good. There’s a reason why you’re 0-3 betting on the Bengals games this year, and it’s not because you’re unlucky. It’s because you literally don’t even put in the slightest amount of time watching games or even the highlights, and just immediately go straight back to “HURR DURR Dalton sucks in the playoffs and they played teams with games on Thursday HURR DURR.” In case you forgot, you yourself stated that the Ravens would have the Bengals “full attention, as this may be a game that decides the division.” The Bengals absolutely dominated Balt until numerous players, especially Burfict and Eifert went down. But all you saw was the final score being close, ignored the fact that the Ravens led for a total of 51 seconds and got slaughtered all day long, and then immediately pulled the “HURR DURR Thursday” card. Then you proceed to bet on the Falcons the next week, ignoring the Thursday card you love so much, they get annihilated by the Bengals, and then you make the same excuse. Do yourself a favor everybody, read Walt’s Bengals picks, then do the exact opposite

This was a response to my previous reply. As you can see, there are some disturbed individuals who read my site. I just hope they didn’t slit their wrists upon watching the Bengals lose miserably Sunday night.

Listen if you disagree about the Saints/Bengals, you are “the public”. That’s my go to when I’m wrong, calling people “the public”. I don’t realize how much of a phoney this makes me look like. What a pyrrhic cover

I wonder if the mouth-breathing Bengal fans, including the guy who doesn’t know what Pyrrhic means, will show their faces after that disastrous game for them.

Kind of like you showed yours last week after the Saints disaster? Kind of like how you ranked them at 8 and gave no explanation as to why, and barely acknowledged that they just played absolutely awful? Oh yes, your new excuse is “wull sum otherz ranxed den hyer!!!” Oh ya, you are certainly Mr Integrity Walt hahaha lol I’ve never seen a guy who gets so full of gloat over winning 200 bucks. Better crack the champagne Walt, your finally out of the hole by a whole 40 bucks….nothing expensive though, you gotta cover next weeks losses You are sharp man. Sharp.

What Saints’ disaster? I didn’t bet them at Dallas, so why would I care that they lost in a blowout? And why do you care so much about my power rankings? Do you seriously have no life? The sharps had the Saints higher than me in their consensus power rankings. They put the Saints 6th. Brees played like trash against the Bucs (albeit without Graham and Goodwin) so maybe we’re all wrong about the Saints, but why does it matter that much? You’re making my ranking of the Saints out to be some huge deal, when it’s one of the least-significant things going on in my life right now.

Fading “Waltdurr the Thursday Night Autistic” tonight, 4 units on Vikings +9 (-110). Also LOVE the over (Patterson and or McKinnon will put up points) but never a good idea to bet the over on TNF. PLAY OF THE DAY VIKINGS +9 – 4 UNITS

Someone else had an awesome response to this: How’d that work out for ya Quan derp derp derp? Must suck to know you lost mid way through the 1st quarter. Oh well,maybe you’ll have lotsa customers when you go back to work giving hand jobs in filling station bathrooms. Work hard fri. and sat.and you might have enough to place a losing bet on sun. Derp derp.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: There’s no spread posted on this game because of Jake Locker’s status. Locker is considered “day to day” with a bruised thumb. It’s easy to understand why the sportsbooks are terrified of listing a number right now. Charlie Whitehurst was so terrible replacing Locker last week that he allowed the Browns to mount the greatest road comeback in NFL history. Locker, on the other hand, did a good job of moving the chains in the first half. He built up a huge lead, but Whitehurst squandered it away.

Locker will have success against Jacksonville if he suits up. Sen’Derrick Marks is the only Jaguar who gets consistent pressure on the quarterback, and the back seven, save for John Cyprien, struggles to cover. Jacksonville is especially brutal at covering tight ends, so Delanie Walker will be poised for a huge outing.

The Titans will also be able to run the ball. The Jaguars are not good at defending the rush despite Red Bryant’s presence, so Shonn Greene won’t have a dreadful outing for once. Of course, Tennessee would have more success with Bishop Sankey, but the rookie running back still needs to take a few more tap-dancing classes before he’s ready to take over the lead role.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Ugh. I thought the Jaguars were going to get the cover last week. They were down 10-9 late as big home underdogs, yet it happened: Blake Bortles tossed a pick-six, and Jacksonville lost by eight points. Typical Jaguars.

Bortles went 22-of-36 for 191 yards and two interceptions against the Steelers, which was a disappointing stat line considering that Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t very good. The pedestrian outing wasn’t all on Bortles, of course, as his receivers dropped countless passes. It’s not like those problems will stop persisting though. The Jaguars have a very young offense, and the group will continue to make mistakes.

The Titans don’t do much well defensively, but one positive attribute is their pass rush. Jurrell Casey and Derrick Morgan apply good pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so that could be problematic for Bortles, given his putrid offensive line. Establishing the run would be nice, but Toby Gerhart is an ineffective plodder who won’t be able to take advantage of Tennessee’s awful ground defense.

RECAP: This game will be unbettable if this spread is above four or so. The Titans are a bad team that doesn’t deserve to be favored by much. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are the epitome of poisonous, as they’ve screwed over the sharps four times this year. You couldn’t pay me to wager on this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No one is betting on this game. The Jaguars are the right side because Charlie Whitehurst can’t be favored, but Jacksonville is unbettable.

SUNDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed. Chad Millman’s replacement – where the hell has Millen been all this week, by the way? – said the sharps are on the Titans. If so, I don’t know what the hell they’re thinking by laying more than a field goal with Charlie Whitehurst.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 56% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings, excluding a push.

Opening Line: Titans -4.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Titans 20, Jaguars 17
Jaguars +5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 16, Jaguars 14

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Quick, what do you know about Aaron Rodgers? He’s obviously a great quarterback. He went to Cal after being in community college. He makes cool State Farm commercials. He hates Todd McShay’s guts. And he kind of resembles Michael Scofield from Prison Break (imagine him with a shaved head). That’s pretty much all I’ve got, and I imagine you have a similar list. Joe Philbin, on the other hand, knows Rodgers better than almost anyone.

Philbin, the head coach of the Dolphins, used to be Rodgers’ offensive coordinator. He knows all of Rodgers’ weaknesses, and he’s had two weeks to prepare for his former signal-caller. He also has a defense that possesses a tremendous pass rush, which spells trouble for Rodgers, given how awful Green Bay’s offensive line has been this year.

Rodgers will still get his yardage and points. He’s just too good. However, he’ll have to do everything because Miami excels against the run, so don’t expect much from Eddie Lacy. It all just might be too much for Rodgers, so the Dolphins might be able to somewhat limit him and give their offense a chance to outscore one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Can the Dolphins’ scoring attack do it? I wouldn’t ordinarily have much faith in Ryan Tannehill, but considering the opponent, it might just be feasible.

Green Bay’s defensive concerns have been well-documented. The team has so many liabilities on its stop unit, which would explain why it ranks 26th in overall defensive efficiency. The Packers are especially brutal when it comes to stopping the run. They’ve struggled at that aspect against most of their foes. They limited Minnesota’s backs on Thursday night, so there is some hope, but that was likely the result of the defense being able to stack the box with Christian Ponder on the other side.

Lamar Miller (and perhaps Knowshon Moreno) will have much more success than Matt Asiata because the Packers will actually have to worry about Tannehill. Granted, he’s not the greatest quarterback, but he’s much better than Ponder. He also has some solid weapons that he can utilize, and I’m not confident that Green Bay’s pedestrian linebackers and mediocre secondary will be able to stop them.

RECAP: As you can tell, I like the Dolphins quite a bit. I’m taking them for four units. Here’s why:

1. The Philbin factor. Head coaches have had great success against their former quarterbacks over the years. As mentioned, Philbin has had two weeks to prepare.

2. The Packers are coming off a perfect win. They have to be feeling great about themselves, and they’ve had 10 days where everyone has been telling them how awesomethey are. Will they even be focused against a non-conference foe they know absolutely nothing about?

3. It’s going to be hot in Miami. It’s not September, but the forecast is calling for 88 and sunny, which will be brutal for a 1 p.m. start in South Beach. Like the Patriots, the Packers could melt under the Miami sun and just be completely exhausted in the second half.

4. The 80-20 rule currently applies. When there’s 80 percent or so action on one side, the other side covers more often than not. The public is pounding Green Bay despite mostly everything favoring the Dolphins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have pounded the Dolphins, while the public is all over Green Bay. I’m going to lock this in at Dolphins +3, which is still available at Bovada. I suspect the line will continue to move downward Sunday morning.

SUNDAY NOTES: Lots of professional money on Miami. The public is on Green Bay. I still love the Dolphins.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

There’s tons of money coming in on the Packers, which isn’t a surprise.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 71% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 50-30 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 24-17 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Underdog is 53-24 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 77 games.

Dolphins are 5-15 ATS after a bye the previous 20 years.

Dolphins are 9-15 ATS vs. NFC teams since 2008.

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Dolphins 30, Packers 27
Dolphins +3 (4 Units) — Push; $0
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 27, Dolphins 24

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3)
Line: Vikings by 2. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Lions -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -1.5.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Lions.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Something has to be done about these brutal Thursday night games. I’m not one of the people who wants them canceled because they present us with great betting opportunities – fading favorites prior to Thursday has been money – but they need to be more entertaining because unless the teams are very evenly matched, it’s almost always going to be a blowout.

E-mailer Kevin J. had a great idea:

Ever see the movie Bad Santa? How about Bad Teacher? Or Bad Grandpa? Now there’s this new sitcom called Bad Judge. WTF is wrong with Hollywood?

Well, I have an idea to help the NFL’s revenue stream. I call it – Bad Thursday Football. Most of the content is already there. It would also feature Jim Nantz being an edgy jerk while wearing sunglasses and a backwards hat, and Phil Simms could get drunk with special guests (like Derek Anderson) and they’ll run around pulling pranks all night. This would help CBS and NFL Network not lose 80% of it’s viewers in the middle of the second quarter. If you know anyone in the NFL offices, we could pitch this idea and make millions just like all the other lazy people in Hollywood.

I love it. Maybe I should be Bad Web Site Writer where I respond to e-mailers sarcastically, make fun of grammatically inept TV analysts and post ridiculous articles where I berate a certain quarterback for his terrible hairstyle. Oh, wait…

2. Another e-mailer, Joe B., brought up a great point:

I totally agree with your theory that imbecile announcers saying “derp derp fantasy honk honk” is brutal to listen to. They clearly know nothing about how fantasy football works. However, have you seen this new Xbox commercial? This guy brings Drew Brees, Demaryius Thomas, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch into his office to ask them why he should start each of them in his fantasy league. Jimmy Graham is shown waiting for his appointment. Do these people expect us to believe someone has all these players on the same team, and is considering benching them? What is this guy in a 4-team league that starts 1 QB and 1 flex and that’s it? I feel like fantasy football was more fun when not everyone knew about it.

Another thing is that the friend (?) in this commercial shouts to the interviewer, “His team is racking up the points!” So, not only is this guy deciding whom to start between Brees, McCOy, Thomas and Lynch; he’s also doing so while games are going on. Yup, sounds realistic to me.

3. I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss the hapless Jets. CBS’ Will Brinson posted the following hilarious graphic on Twitter following the 31-0 loss:

Wow. Even crazier was what happened to Geno Smith. If you didn’t hear, Smith missed a team meeting because he lost track of time while at the movies. That happens, but the explanation was appalling. Smith “lost track of time” because he counted the wrong way while trying to convert Pacific time to Eastern time.

That sounds like an honest mistake, but think about that for a second. How does a grown man not know how to convert Pacific time to Eastern time? That’s my greatest take-away from this entire episode. The Jets’ quarterback can’t do basic math. Unreal.

Poor Rex Ryan. He’s going to lose his job because of this. I mean, he dug his own grave by bungling the Tim Tebow situation, but that’s been his only blunder as the Jets’ coach.

I don’t see why Ryan needs to be fired. His team sucks, sure, but anyone with a clue knew that going into the season. It’s not Ryan’s fault that his general manager provided him with garbage players. Ryan is still a fantastic coach in my mind, and if I were running a team, I’d hire him the instant the Jets let him go.

DETROIT OFFENSE: This spread isn’t available in many books because of Calvin Johnson’s questionable status. Johnson aggravated his ankle in the Buffalo game, prompting Jim Caldwell to lament afterward about playing him in that contest. Johnson then added that he’ll need lots of treatment and that “some injures … require rest.” All in all, it sounds like Megatron won’t be on the field this Sunday, but that’s far from a certainty.

Even if Johnson suits up, he could be a decoy once again. Matthew Stafford struggled last week without Johnson, as his only viable target became Golden Tate. The Bills pressured him heavily, disrupting numerous drives, some of which concluded with missed field goal attempts. Matt Prater was brought on to make sure that doesn’t happen again, but the primary issue still remains: Detroit may have trouble sustaining possessions with Johnson out.

Reggie Bush being hurt doesn’t help either. The Vikings have a leaky run defense, so Joique Bell being back would help. However, Minnesota won’t have to worry about Bush breaking big gains when getting into space.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: While the Lions got banged up, the Vikings become healthier. Teddy Bridgewater missed Thursday’s contest at the Packers, but he’ll be back in the lineup this Sunday. Detroit can’t be too thrilled about that, as Bridgewater is a considerable upgrade over Christian Ponder.

Bridgewater had a fantastic first start against the Falcons, but he won’t find things as easy in his second full game. Atlanta’s stop unit is garbage, while the Lions are first in defensive efficiency. They’re especially stout against the run, so Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon won’t be combining for close to 200 rushing yards again. They could have a bit of success with Detroit somewhat focused on Bridgewater being able to advance the chains with his legs, but I wouldn’t count on a decent outing from either back.

The Lions can also place a considerable amount of pressure on the quarterback. There’s no reason to think that Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley won’t dominate the trenches, but Ezekiel Ansah is the player who could have a huge afternoon. Ansah will be matched up against Matt Kalil, who has inexplicably been absolutely dreadful this year.

RECAP: If the Lions had won last week, I’d probably be going pretty big on the Vikings. I still like the home underdog because A) value, B) teams off Thursday night blowout losses tend to rebound, and C) the Lions aren’t the same team without Megatron. However, Detroit is in somewhat of a good spot because of that close defeat.

Once there are more numbers available, and I’m aware of what the sharps are doing, I may decide to place a unit or two on the Vikings. For now, it’s a non-bet on Minnesota. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps like the Vikings. There’s not enough for me to bet on them, but I think they’re the right side. Detroit is not the same team without Calvin Johnson. Even though Megatron was just a decoy the past two weeks, defenses still paid attention to him. Stafford struggled once Johnson was knocked out of the lineup.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has moved considerably. The sharps have moved it, and they like the Vikings as long as it’s better than -3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Slight money on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 63% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 24 of the last 29 meetings.

Lions are 11-24 ATS against losing teams the previous 35 instances.

Opening Line: Lions -2.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Vikings 20, Lions 17
Vikings -2 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 17, Vikings 3

Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Line: Bengals by 7. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -8.5.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I’m not one to criticize college football picks because mine have sucked this year, but I found it ridiculous that of the four people selecting the games on College GameDay, only Katy Perry got the Alabama-Ole Miss matchup correct. Katy freaking Perry. Desmond Howard picked Alabama. Kirk Herbstreit picked Alabama. Lee Corso donned the elephant hat and played Sweet Home Alabama. Katy Perry, meanwhile, was the only one who went with Ole Miss, and she did this as she wrote her picks in with a giant pencil and tossed corn dogs everywhere. I was shocked that the PC idiots on Twitter didn’t give her a hard time for wasting food while there are people starving to death in third-world countries like Africa and Camden, N.J.

Katy making the entire College Gameday crew look stupid wasn’t the most significant thing she did during the broadcast, nor was it announcing that she wouldn’t pay to perform at the Super Bowl. What she managed to accomplish was ruin Oklahoma’s season.

If you didn’t see it, Katy announced to the world that she wanted Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight to call her. She later took out a picture of him on a heart and kissed it. If you’re Trevor Knight, how the hell do you concentrate on playing a game against “lowly” TCU? Katy freaking Perry wants to bang you. Granted, she’s annoying as hell, but she’s damn hot. Plus, her declaration of love is the best thing that has ever happened to Knight, who threw two picks and failed to complete half his passes. Now everyone outside of the football world knows who he is. That’s huge because he now has so many possibilities outside of football – and that includes banging Katy Perry.

2. Speaking of College GameDay, I want to harp on something I mentioned a few weeks ago. The crew cut away to Todd McShay interviewing Urban Meyer before the Ohio State-Maryland game. McShay looked so pathetic holding a microphone to Meyer’s face. It’s almost like ESPN wanted to punish him for that horrible reporting regarding Johnny Manziel going to the Cowboys by having him be a sideline reporter for crappy early college football games. They’re not even giving him the top-notch games. What the hell is ESPN doing?

If you couldn’t tell, I have very little respect for sideline reporters. They’re so irrelevant, and they ask the dumbest questions. If I had the TV on mute, I would’ve guessed McShay was asking Meyer, “Hey Urban, are you wearing boxers or briefs today lol?” or “If you and I go on a date, would you rather take a romantic walk on the beach or ride a Ferris wheel lmao?” Seriously, who cares? GTFO, sideline reporters.

3. There were so many upsets in college football this weekend. My favorite one was Oregon-Arizona, and not just because it was the first. It’s because I found this amusing picture on Twitter immediately afterward:

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Bad news for the Bengals – A.J. Green suffered a toe injury Wednesday afternoon and had to be carted off the practice field. I’m not exactly sure why a toe issue required a cart, but regardless, it’s not good news for the Bengals, who will likely be without their top receiver.

Having said that, the Bengals shouldn’t have much trouble scoring. Carolina’s defense has been an abomination ever since losing Greg Hardy. They’re 24th in defensive efficiency, as the team has struggled to get to the quarterback, for the most part. Kawann Short dominated last week’s victory over the Bears, but Andy Dalton is protected well, so I imagine that the Panthers will once again fail to put pressure on the opposing signal-caller, repeating what transpired at Baltimore two weeks ago.

The Panthers are at their worst when it comes to stopping the run. They’re 31st in that department in terms of YPC (5.35), as only Dallas is worse. The Bengals failed to get Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill going Sunday night because they fell way behind early, but things will likely be different this time around.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: While Green is likely out, the Bengals will be getting a boost, as Vontaze Burfict is on track to return to the field after missing the past two games with a concussion. There’s no doubt that Cincinnati’s defense is a much better unit when Burfict is in the lineup. Effectively the quarterback of the defense, Burfict is stout in both run support and pass coverage.

Burfict was needed Sunday night when the Patriots trampled the Bengals with Stevan Ridley, but the Panthers won’t be able to duplicate that, with or without Burfict on the field. DeAngelo Williams will be out again, leaving a hobbled Jonathan Stewart and ineffective Darrin Reaves coming out of the backfield. Neither player is a threat, so Cincinnati can focus on containing Cam Newton.

Stopping Newton has been easier this year. Newton has been hobbled with numerous injuries and has shied away from running as a consequence. He’s also been hampered with a horrific offensive line and a receiving corps with only one talented player. The Bengals will be able to pressure Newton and take away his receiving options, as most teams have done this season.

RECAP: I planned to go three units on the Bengals prior to Green’s injury, and after some consideration, I’ve decided not to change my strategy very much. Cincinnati is still the superior team by far, and I love the fact that the Bengals are coming off a blowout loss. I expect they’ll bounce back at home, where they’ve pretty much been flawless under Dalton.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m increasing my wager to three units. I really like the Bengals. It seems like the public is so focused on the A.J. Green injury, yet they’re ignoring the fact that Vontaze Burfict will be back in the lineup. Burfict is just as important to the defense as Green is to the offense.

SUNDAY NOTES: I loved how two of the five ESPN analysts picked large-underdog Carolina because A.J. Green is out. Well, what about Vontaze Burfict? He’s just as important to the defense as Green is to the offense. There’s no real sharp lean here, but the Bengals are the play for me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
A tiny lean toward Carolina.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 62% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 10-1 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 20-33 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Bengals 30, Panthers 17
Bengals -7 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 37, Panthers 37

New England Patriots (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -1.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

Check out the new Spam Mails page here with my most recent responses.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: What a difference a week makes. Seven days ago, the Patriots had a dysfunctional offense. The linemen couldn’t block, the receivers couldn’t catch, and Tom Brady was finished. Now, the front has finally meshed together, the receiving corps has been bolstered by new tight end Tim Wright, and Brady still has it. What an amazing week for the Patriots!

Here’s the truth: The Patriots weren’t nearly as bad as they looked at Kansas City, but they aren’t nearly as good as they played against the Bengals. They’re somewhere in between. They still have offensive line issues; Wright didn’t even play 20 snaps; and Brady still can’t consistently connect downfield. The Bills have a tremendous pass rush that gave Matthew Stafford fits last week, and they should be able to do the same to Brady. I don’t trust the interior of his offensive line to block Marcell Dareus, who is playing incredibly right now.

The Patriots were able to help their passing attack by establishing the run against the Bengals. I doubt they’ll have much success in that regard in this contest. While the Bengals are a shocking 29th versus the rush (4.93 YPC), the Bills ae third (2.93).

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I never thought I’d say Kyle Orton would be a huge upgrade over any quarterback in the NFL, but that’s exactly the case for the Bills. E.J. Manuel was terrible in terms of diagnosing defenses, so it has to be a relief for the Buffalo players that they actually have a quarterback who knows what he’s doing for a change.

Orton will have a tougher matchup in this contest than he did at Detroit because the Patriots have Darrelle Revis to take away Sammy Watkins. The first-round receiver was the star of last week’s victory, reeling in a juggling reception to put the team in range for the decisive kick. He’ll have issues doing that this Sunday, as Revis is just coming off an outing in which he pretty much erased A.J. Green.

The Bills, however, will have more success running the ball on the Patriots. Whereas Detroit is fifth against ground attacks (3.31 YPC), New England is 24th (4.63). Orton will also be able to utilize C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson as receivers out of the backfield. Remember how much trouble New England had with Jamaal Charles in space during that Monday night defeat.

RECAP: The Bills are one of my top two plays this week. Here’s why:

1. I mentioned this earlier, but this spread makes no sense. The public sees this as the “Patriots only by three.” Any professional bettor sees this as Patriots being favored by nine if this game were in New England, which is preposterous.

2. Speaking of the public, there’s tons of money predictably coming in on the Patriots. The sharps, meanwhile, are already betting the Bills.

3. I love wagering against teams going into Thursday night games. New England, riding high off its statement victory, has to play the Jets four days after this game. I doubt the Patriots will be fully focused against a team they’ve routinely beat up over the years. The Bills, meanwhile, will effectively be playing their Super Bowl here.

4. Here’s a cool trend favoring Buffalo. Teams that kicked five or more field goals in a victory are just 17-42 against the spread the following game dating back to 1989. The logic behind this is simple: Teams in this situation get mistakenly overconfident; they won a game, but sputtered in the red zone. Because they’re coming off a victory, they probably won’t spend too much time fixing their red-zone issues, which will just lead to more of the same problems the following week. This trend went against the Bills in Week 3; Buffalo kicked too many field goals in a fluky victory over Miami in Week 2 and sputtered as a consequence.

FRIDAY UPDATE: I’m locking this in at +3, which is still available at Bovada. The sharps are betting this down, as they’re all over Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: My pick is locked in, and I still love the Bills. The sharps are pounding them.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps love this game so much that they’ve taken it down to +1. I hope you locked in +3 on Friday. I still like the Bills at +1, but only half as much.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

This is a huge game for the Bills. They’ll be up for this game more than the Patriots will.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Everyone is jumping back on the Patriots’ bandwagon again.

Percentage of money on New England: 78% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 20 of the last 21 meetings.

Patriots are 42-29 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 163-56 as a starter (124-90 ATS).

Tom Brady is 8-2 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 3 points. ???

True home teams are 17-5 ATS in the last 21 Bills games.

Bills are 14-24 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Bills 23, Patriots 20
Bills +3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 37, Bills 22

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -3 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -3.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Video of the Week: I found this video thanks to Steve. V, though you may have already seen it because it has about 12 million views. What if Google was a guy?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I did not expect Joe Flacco to be pressured as much as he was against the Colts this past Sunday. After all, he hadn’t been sacked since Week 1, and Indianapolis came into the game with a pass rush perceived to be especially mediocre. The Colts, however, put tons of pressure on Flacco, as Bjoern Werner came alive. What really happened was that the Ravens sorely missed left tackle Eugene Monroe.

Monroe, who is out with minor knee surgery, saw his replacement completely abused. James Hurst held up well in his first game against the Panthers, but was overwhelmed at Indianapolis, as he surrendered a whopping three sacks. Michael Johnson, who had a solid performance against the Steelers two weeks ago, has an incredible matchup he should easily take advantage of. The Ravens will have to help Hurst, which will only free up Gerald McCoy to create more havoc in the interior.

Having said that, the Ravens should still sustain some successful drives. The Buccaneers are dead last in defensive efficiency, thanks to their putrid back seven. Excluding McCoy, Johnson (on occasion), Lavonte David, Mark Barron and Alterraun Verner, no one on Tampa’s defense is playing well. The team couldn’t stop the run to save its life, so Justin Forsett and company should be able to establish themselves and grant Flacco some opportunities in which he doesn’t have to be worried about his poor blind-side protection.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Mike Glennon has definitely proven to be an upgrade over Josh McCown. He hasn’t done anything stupid like throw passes while falling down, and he’s actually been able to move the chains. Granted, he’s done so versus a banged-up Pittsburgh defense and a decaying Saints’ stop unit, but McCown probably wouldn’t have had as much success. Glennon will have more of a challenge in this contest, unfortunately.

I’m curious to see how Glennon fares amid poor pass protection. The Buccaneers have struggled to block for their quarterbacks this season, and they’ll be facing quite the challenge against a tough front seven that puts a ton of heat on opposing signal-callers. It also stops the run very well, so Doug Martin will once again be limited; not that he’d have success against a weaker opponent in his condition.

Baltimore’s one weakness is in the secondary, so if Tampa’s line can give Glennon ample time in the pocket, he’ll be able to beat the Ravens downfield. Not having Mike Evans will hurt, but Louis Murphy has proven to be a decent substitute. Vincent Jackson, of course, will continue to dominate after a silent first three weeks.

RECAP: I’m torn on this game. As mentioned earlier, the spread is too high. A number of 3.5 may not seem like much, but this would be -9.5 in Baltimore, which seems a bit outrageous. There is also a decent amount of action coming in on the road favorite.

Having said that, the Buccaneers aren’t in a good spot either. They’re coming off an emotional overtime loss. They put everything they had into that New Orleans game, and they came up short. They had to travel back home after that, and they could be exhausted. Besides, being at home won’t exactly be beneficial, as the Buccaneers possess one of the worst homefield advantages in the NFL, owning an abysmal 13-28 ATS record in front of the pirate ship during the past several seasons.

After much consideration, I’ve decided to take the Ravens, but I can’t exactly say I have confidence in my selection.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s not much action going on either side. The public is on the Ravens, but they’re not betting very much. The sharps haven’t gotten involved. I’d like the Ravens if they didn’t have offensive line issues. Eugene Monroe is still out, while Kelechi Osemele might miss this contest.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman’s replacement said that the sharps like the Buccaneers, but that’s not the case. There’s only public money going on Baltimore. This is not a highly bet game, so Vegas won’t lose lots of money if Baltimore covers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is do or die for the Buccaneers, as a 1-5 season would finish them off. However, they could be flat following their overtime loss to the Saints.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

There was equal action early, but people have begun to bet on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 73% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 6-3 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Ravens are 10-18 ATS as road favorites since 2005.

Buccaneers are 11-28 ATS at home in the previous 39 instances.

Buccaneers are 5-14 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Ravens 26, Buccaneers 20
Ravens -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 48, Buccaneers 17

Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games
San Diego�at�Oakland, Chicago�at�Atlanta, Washington�at�Arizona, Dallas�at�Seattle, NY Giants�at�Philadelphia, San Francisco�at�St. Louis

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 17

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

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Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)