2025 NFL Picks – Week 19: Packers at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 27-51-1 heading into Week 18.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills -9.5

49ers +3

Eagles -4

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17 and 1-2 in Week 18. Booo!

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers +4.5

Bears -1

Patriots -3.5

The No. 1 public team is an underdog, which is a bit surprising.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that the Packers will be radically different offensively than they were in Week 18. They started Clayton Tune, but “No Cookie” Jordan Love was cleared to play from his concussion. There was no reason to put him on the field in a meaningless game, however, so Love and the other significant starters all sat.

Quarterbacks tend to struggle in their first game back from concussion, but given that Love was cleared last week, it seems likely that he’ll be just fine for this contest. If so, he shouldn’t have a problem dissecting Chicago’s defense. The Bears have the second-fewest quarterback pressures in the NFL, so Love will be able to dissect Chicago’s secondary, just a Brock Purdy and Jared Goff have done the past couple of weeks.

The Bears won’t have better luck stopping Green Bay’s rushing attack. Josh Jacobs is expected to be healthy after being banged up a couple of weeks ago. He wasn’t at full strength in the Week 16 matchup between these teams, but he will be in this contest. He’ll have success against the Bears’ 21st-ranked run defense.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: If we were discussing this matchup two months ago, I’d talk about how the Packers have a better defense, which would give them a far better chance of winning. Green Bay won the first contest between these teams in a game in which it was constantly ahead. The Bears couldn’t muster much offensively until late in the game, which, to be fair, is the norm for them for the most part.

Things have changed, however. Micah Parsons is out, which has severely diminished the pass rush and the defense overall. The Bears have a great offensive line that gives Caleb Williams all the time he needs. Parsons was a way for the Packers to beat Chicago’s pass protection, but that’s no longer a possibility.

The Chicago offensive line is even better at opening running lanes for the team’s two backs. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are both in the top five in yards before contact. The Packers are 15th against the run, so Swift and Monangai should both perform well.

RECAP: If Parsons were still healthy, I’d like the Packers. Of course, the spread would be higher than what it is now, but I don’t think it would be above Green Bay -3. I think I’d take the Packers as a three-point road favorite in Chicago with Parsons playing.

Parsons, however, is sidelined, so these teams are dead even. We saw this in their Week 16 matchup when they went to overtime. The Bears won in the extra period, but only because the Packers lost a fumble on their first possession. Had that not occurred, there’s a good chance the Bears would have been forced into going for two following the deep Williams touchdown to D.J. Moore.

I truly believe this game is a toss-up. The Bears should be laying a point or a point-and-a-half for being at home, so the spread is fair. Thus, I can’t give you any sort of confident pick. In fact, this is my least-confidence selection of the week.

I’m going to side with the Packers, though I may change my mind later in the week. When in doubt, fade the public. The public loves the Bears for some reason, so we’ll go with Green Bay.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

Everyone believes in the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 66% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 21 of the last 25 meetings.

Packers are 69-48 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather:

Week 19 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Bears 24

Packers +1 (0 Units)

Over 46 (0 Units)

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Everyone believes in the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 66% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Packers have won 21 of the last 25 meetings.

Packers are 69-48 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: