2025 NFL Picks – Week 19: Rams at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 18 Analysis: We had another solid week to close out the regular season. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Vikings, 4 units (win): We won, but we’re lucky we had -12.5 instead of -13.5 because there was a shady field goal just as time expired. Given our luck, I’m surprised the final margin wasn’t 12 instead of 13.

Bengals, 3 units (win): Speaking of bad luck, we had one final bad beat of the regular season. We had the Bengals at -7.5. They lost by two, but they outgained the Browns, 364-200. They lost because Joe Burrow had a tipped pass in the red zone returned for a pick-six, and then Noah Fant lost a fumble at midfield that was also returned for a touchdown. The Browns scored 14 bogus points and probably should have lost, 21-6.

Patriots, 5 units (win): The Dolphins hung around longer than I thought they would, but the Patriots ultimately covered easily.

Rams, 3 units (win): The Rams trailed in the second half, but had an absolutely dominant fourth quarter to win by 17, covering as a 14-point favorite.

Broncos, 3 units (win): We finally had some good luck go our way, which was nice. The Chargers nearly back doored at the very end, but two of their touchdowns were negated by penalty and replay review.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: There’s a misconception that Matthew Stafford had a miserable game against the Panthers in a loss that occurred about a month ago. While Stafford didn’t have his best performance, he still moved the chains with ease. He threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns on 28 attempts. Sure, he was picked twice, but one of the interceptions was a on a fluky batted ball. The other was pick-sixed in an error that Stafford generally doesn’t make.

Stafford should be able to rebound this week. The Panthers have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Stafford will enjoy a clean pocket, especially with some offensive linemen expected to be back from injury. Davante Adams is also expected to play, so Stafford will have all hands on deck to expose Carolina’s poor pass defense.

The Panthers are even worse against the run, and we saw that in the prior matchup. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum ripped off 153 rushing yards on just 20 combined carries in the prior matchup.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young has been incredibly inconsistent this year. He’s occasionally resembled a Pro Bowl quarterback. In other instances, he’s looked like a practice squad player. Young performed like the former in the first matchup between these teams. Young went 15-of-20 for 206 yards and three touchdowns, constantly torching the Rams with deep bombs.

It would be shocking if Young had a similar performance. The Rams seemed to be going through the motions in this game because they were battling what was perceived to be a poor opponent following a blowout of a better team on national TV. It was simply a flat spot, so the Rams didn’t play well defensively. They’ve been dominant on this side of the ball, especially with their pass rush, so they should have a much better chance of rattling Young.

Like the Rams, the Panthers also ran well in the prior matchup. This felt more like a fluke. Whereas the Panthers are 22nd against the run, the Rams are 10th, so it seems unlikely that Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle will combine for anything close to 141 rushing yards again.

RECAP: I can’t say I’m surprised to see the public come in on Carolina. The Panthers beat the Rams back in Week 13, after all, so getting double digits may seem like a sure win to the uninformed.

There are some things wrong with this line of thinking. First, the prior matchup should be disregarded because the Rams had one of their worst efforts of the year. As mentioned, the Rams were coming off a blowout win on national TV. They also had a divisional battle on the horizon. They didn’t put forth maximum effort into the Carolina game.

Also, I must mention something that Andy Iskoe brings up on our Wednesday livestream. Andy has pointed out that every team will have three or so games each season where they play worse than their capabilities and three games each year where they play well above their capabilities. I believe the Week 13 Rams-Panthers game was a confluence of both. The Rams played their worst game of the year, while the Panthers played their best game of the year. Even if both teams are average this Saturday, we could see a blowout.

The reason I believe this will be a blowout is because the Rams are a far better team than the Panthers. The metrics agree – the Rams are No. 1 overall in EPA, while Carolina is No. 24 – and the Panthers have been outscored by 69 points this year, the worst point differential of any team ever to enter the NFL playoffs. And in the other two games against Group A teams this year, the Panthers lost to the Bills, 40-9, and to the Seahawks, 27-10. Both games were in Carolina. I believe we’ll see a similar result. This might be my December NFL Pick of the Month.

Our Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -9.5.

Computer Model: Rams -9.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 55% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -10.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather:

Week 19 NFL Pick: Rams 30, Panthers 10

Rams -10 (5 Units)

Under 46.5 (0 Units)

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 55% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Opening Line: Rams -10.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: