2025 NFL Picks – Week 19: 49ers at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Almost every square bettor I know was on the 49ers versus the Seahawks on Saturday night. Of those I spoke to since that game, they were all shocked that the 49ers couldn’t produce anything offensively. “This team never punted, and now they can’t score at all!? What happened!?” one person asked me even though I told them that backing San Francisco was a bad idea.

If you were similarly shocked by the result, well, first of all, welcome to the Web site because we had Seattle as a medium-sized play last week. And second, consider how the 49ers attained their distinction of having an unstoppable offense in the first place. They had the luxury of beating up on some horrible defenses. They crushed the Titans, Bears, and injury-ravaged Colts during their scoring spree. They also didn’t punt against the Browns because they had nothing but short fields off turnovers and special teams plays. ESPN will tell its audience cool-sounding facts like, “The 49ers haven’t punted in December!!!!” but it’s all misleading and most people don’t see that they’re being misled. This is how ESPN can get away with hiring unqualified people who tell their audience that Geno Smith is a top-10 quarterback.

At any rate, the 49ers couldn’t do anything offensively against Seattle’s stalwart defense. The Seahawks are first in defensive EPA, while the Eagles are third, and there’s a chance they could be higher if they had Jalen Carter available all year. Kyle Shanahan thrives against opponents that have a defensive weakness because he can scheme around it, but he won’t be able to do that in this contest. The Eagles will be able to dominate the line of scrimmage and smother San Francisco’s weapons.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The 49ers are also going to have major defensive problems in this game. In fact, if I were a 49er fan, I’d be way more worried about their defense than their offense, despite what I just wrote in the three previous paragraphs.

The 49ers can’t get to the quarterback whatsoever. It was very telling a few weeks ago when they played against the Titans. Cam Ward held on to the ball more than any other quarterback this season, and yet San Francisco didn’t log a single sack against him. The 49ers have the fifth-fewest quarterback pressures this season, and that figure includes the couple of games played with Nick Bosa to start the year. Bosa and the other injured defensive linemen will continue to be sorely missed in this game, as they won’t apply pressure on Jalen Hurts, especially if Lane Johnson returns to action.

Hurts will have enough time to torch San Francisco’s secondary. He’ll also be able to run on the 49ers, who surrender the 10th-most production to scrambling quarterbacks. Saquon Barkley also figures to do well, given what we saw from the two Seattle backs in the Week 18 contest.

RECAP: Following last Thursday’s livestream with Evan Daniel, which you can watch here…

…we locked in the Eagles -2.5 -105 for three units. I made note of this on Twitter as well, so I hope all of you saw it and bet it.

The thinking was that if the 49ers lost to the Seahawks, they’d look bad and thus would be lined worse against the Eagles. This turned to be right on the money, as the 49ers are now +4.5 instead of +2.5. As we mentioned on the show, this would offer a great middle/hedge opportunity.

After thinking about it, I think I’d rather double down on the Eagles. Of course, this means I regret not betting more than three units on the Eagles, but I still think they’re a safe play at -4.5. I made this line about -7, which might be a bit crazy, but I think it makes sense because I have the Eagles two tiers above the 49ers, who have a dreadful defense, an injured left tackle, and a misleading record that is the byproduct of what I said was the “easiest schedule I’ve ever seen in my life” prior to the season.

My plan at the beginning of the year was to bet the 49ers often against bad teams during the regular season and then fade them in the playoffs, so no, I’m not hedging or middling. I’m betting more on the Eagles.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

The 49ers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 82% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather:

Week 19 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, 49ers 10

Eagles -2.5 -105 (3 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Eagles -4.5 (2 Units)

Under 45 (0 Units)

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The 49ers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 82% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: