NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2026 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
2026 NFL Picks: 5-7 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,0550)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 13, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 1 NFL Picks - Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

Football is back! It's been a long summer, but the 2026 NFL season is finally here. We'll be posting our picks every Tuesday, as usual.

We had a winning season last year, clearing $5,000. It was a nice year, but could have been so much better if we didn't suffer 28 bad beats during the season. How did I come up with that number? Well, I wrote a book called Year of the Bad Beat. If we were on the winning side of every bad beat, we would have cleared $25,000.

Also, if you haven't visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we've finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It's $8.99 per month - 30 cents per day - but you'll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. We already have features available for premium subscribers like detailed injury reports and our WalterFootball Discord, where we'll be posting live picks and other selections. We're also working on some other things as well. If you don't want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

At any rate, I'm looking forward to this season. I've done a lot of research this summer to refine my handicapping. We're coming off a good year, and I think this season could be even better!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Seahawks had a huge advantage over the Patriots on the defensive side of the ball in the Super Bowl. Head coach Mike Macdonald revealed it afterward. The team had a tell on left tackle Will Campbell, whose stance identified whether the Patriots were going to run or throw. Campbell was injured, so he had to line up awkwardly at times, and the Seahawks knew exactly what the Patriots were going to do.

Campbell is healthy now, so that won't be a factor. In fact, the Patriots' offensive line as a whole is better. With Campbell's improved health, as well as the additions of a rookie right tackle taken in the first round and Alijah Vera-Tucker, the Patriots will be more equipped to protect Drake Maye, who took six sacks in the Super Bowl.

Maye also has much better weapons at his disposal this year. A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs are big upgrades over what Maye possessed last year, and despite that, Maye was the best downfield thrower in the NFL in 2025. Maye should be even better this year, beginning with this game.

However, Seattle has a great pass rush and a talented secondary, so this will be one of Maye's toughest matchups all year. I don't see the Patriots running very well either.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Seattle's offense didn't have much better success than the Patriots' offense in the first half of last year's Super Bowl. However, the Seahawks dominated in the second half on both sides of the ball, thanks to their running game propelling their offense.

Kenneth Walker was named Super Bowl MVP despite not scoring a touchdown - one of the bad beats listed in my book, by the way - and I don't see why Seattle wouldn't do great on the ground again.

The Seahawks lost Walker but drafted Jadarian Price with the final pick in the opening round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Price was stuck behind Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame, but he's extremely talented and would have been taken earlier in the draft had he been able to start on that team.

The Patriots are light up front, so I don't see them being much better against the run this year. Price should play very well, setting up easier throwing opportunities for Sam Darnold, who struggled in the Super Bowl. Given Darnold's favorable conditions, he should be fine in this game.

There is some cause for concern, however. The Seahawks lost their great offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who is now head coach of the Raiders. That's one of the main things I'm eager to see in this game: How will Seattle's offense adjust, especially against a defensive mastermind like Mike Vrabel?

RECAP: The Seahawks no longer have their advantage in knowing what the Patriots will call. Campbell is healthy, and New England now knows that he was giving away the plays. Furthermore, the Seahawks lost Kubiak, meaning the offense will have to adjust.

Given that Maye has better weapons and upgraded blocking, the Patriots look like the right play in this game at first glance. In fact, I don't hate the idea of taking the Patriots in the first half.

However, the Seahawks have a huge edge elsewhere. This is a night game, and East Coast teams have severe issues playing on the West Coast at night, especially in the second half when they become exhausted. Circadian rhythms are real, like it or not, and the Seahawks have a huge edge for that reason. This really benefited them last year against the Texans, and it figures to be a nice advantage for them in this contest.

However, I don't see much of an edge with the -3.5, so I'm going to take the Seahawks for a small bet. But, like I said, I think the Patriots could be the play in the first half.

Our Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: While our actual picks will be posted next Tuesday, I'm going to bet on a same-game parlay because we have a 100-percent bonus on DraftKings because of our prior bets and gets. We're going to bet Drake Maye over 25 rushing yards and A.J. Brown over 60 receiving yards, as I believe the Patriots will be trailing in this game. We'll also have some perceived negative correlation with the Seahawks covering the spread. This parlay pays +1050 with the boost at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

PROPS: FanDuel is basically giving away $25. They have a prop that goes: "1+ Points Scored in Patriots v Seahawks." Unless this game ends in a 0-0 tie, this is an easy $25.

Both FanDuel and DraftKings have profit boosts. On FanDuel, we're going to bet Jadarian Price to have the most rushing yards, booting it from +125 to +188.

At DraftKings, we have a 50-percent boost up to $100. I mentioned earlier that I like the Patriots in the first half. We can take them from PK +124 to +186.

Butters and Nuggets like Reggie Gilliam to vulture a touchdown at +2800 odds. Here's a cool thing: You can parlay Gilliam 1+ touchdowns with Seahawks moneyline at +5000 on BetMGM. If you try to do this on FanDuel, they give you something like +3400, so I don't know why BetMGM is so generous. Let's make a small wager on this.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nick Emmanwori is out, but that's not enough for me to get off the Seahawks. However, it might be part of the reason the sharps have come in on the Patriots at +3.5. The line has dropped to three in most locations, and you can even get -3 -106 at Bookmaker, followed by -3 -112 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Seahawks -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 57% (278,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Patriots are 33-18 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Seahawks are 32-20 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 65-50 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: All the news and speculation is on the 49ers' side of the ball. We have no idea if Christian McCaffrey is going to be 100 percent, given his earlier 2-week hiatus and sudden absence from practice. Sure, he may be fine, but this is eerily similar to what transpired before the Jets Monday night contest two years ago. McCaffrey was listed as questionable heading into Week 1 that year, but ended up missing the first two months of the season due to calf tightness, which actually ended up being an Achilles injury.

Then there's Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald. Garrett will definitely play in this game, though Donald may not suit up because he may not be ready. Still, Garrett's presence has to be frustrating for the 49ers, who no longer have a big advantage with Trent Williams blocking the Rams' right edge rusher. Williams will win some reps, while Garrett will win the others, and that just means that Brock Purdy will see more pressure than normal against the Rams in this game.

Speaking of Purdy, he has an injury-ravaged group of weapons at his disposal. Mike Evans missed most of training camp due to injuries, while George Kittle is coming off a torn Achilles. The Rams made big upgrades to the secondary this offseason, so they shouldn't have an issue defending Purdy and his weapons. And if McCaffrey is hindered or out, that will put even more pressure on Purdy.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: There seemed to be some drama on this side of the ball with the Rams as well, but it was announced that Puka Nacua will play in this game despite some off-the-field antics this offseason. Nacua spent the winter and spring biting people, so hopefully he stays away from the Australian natives.

Nacua, Davante Adams, and the rest of the Rams' weapons are back this year to cause the 49ers more grief. Los Angeles scored 42 points on the 49ers in their second matchup last season.

It would be helpful if the 49ers' defense was at full strength, but that may not be the case. Nick Bosa is coming off a torn ACL, and reports indicate that he's not 100 percent yet. Bosa being limited in the slightest will be a huge boon for Matthew Stafford, who is protected very well and should have plenty of time to dissect the 49ers' secondary, which is an issue.

The 49ers will at least have Fred Warner back on the field after his season-ending injury, and his presence will help defend the run. However, San Francisco's inability to stop the pass will be its downfall in this game.

RECAP: I was torn on this game for a while, but I settled on the Rams. I wish we were getting -3, but -3.5 should still be good. Bosa not being 100 percent and McCaffrey dealing with some weird tightness definitely makes me want to look in Los Angeles' direction.

The Rams are often a great team to bet on in Week 1 anyway. Sean McVay is 7-2 against the spread in Week 1 because he's such a great coach when he's able to prepare for a long time.

Speaking of McVay, he made what some people deem to be a questionable decision in flying out to Australia just prior to the game. However, I don't think this is going to be much of an issue. Flying west isn't nearly as bad as flying east. And the 49ers, who seem to have an advantage by being in Australia for a while, could get distracted by their new surroundings and the locals, if you know what I mean.

This is all speculation, of course, and I could be wrong, but I think the Rams are doing the right thing. This is anecdotal, but whenever I fly out to Vegas each summer, I definitely have more energy when I land. Of course, flying from Los Angeles to Australia is much farther than going from Philly to Las Vegas, but still, what I said about flying west is true.

All that being said, this Australia game is a major unknown, and I hate laying 3.5 anyway. So, this is going to be the smallest of plays on the Rams if I end up betting them. I will have more interest if this spread drops to -3.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We're going to parlay Christian McCaffrey over receptions along with Deebo Samuel over receiving yards, both with Rams -2.5. McCaffrey caught eight passes in each of the games against the Rams last year, while Los Angeles' secondary has been weak against No. 2 receivers. This is technically negative correlation with the Rams covering the spread, but it's actually positive correlation because if the 49ers are down, they're going to have to throw a lot. We're getting a 100-percent odds boost on DraftKings up to $25. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds as though all the 49ers players will suit up for this game, but we still don't know how healthy Nick Bosa, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey are. This is still a tough game to handicap, and I'm still leaning on the Rams.

PROPS: FanDuel has a prop called "NFL Every TD Pays." On a $10 bet, we'll get a $5 bonus bet for every touchdown scored in this game, which I'll apply to our futures page over the weekend. I'm going to bet Mike Evans to be the leading receiver at +600. Puka Nacua is the heavy favorite, but he wasn't even the leading receiver on the Rams in either matchup last year.

FanDuel also has a 50-percent boost for this game (up to $25), so we can take Rams -2.5 -164 to -2.5 -109.

DraftKings has a 50-percent boost as well. Sticking with the leading receiver market, we can take Davante Adams from +550 to +825. Why Adams? Because he led the Rams in receiving in both matchups last year.

DraftKings also has a "Boomerang Bet and Get" where you get bonus bets back on your wager for a first touchdown scorer. Let's go with George Kittle, as the 49ers would like to get him involved coming off his Achilles injury.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the underdog last night, but they haven't taken a stance in this game. I can't blame them - playing in Australia at a weird time is a complete unknown. I already bet the Rams with a boost for a quarter unit, so the remaining three quarters will be placed at BetMGM, which has the best number (-3.5 -108).

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Rams -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 59% (223,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: 49ers have won 28 of the last 40 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie and a 2023 game where both teams sat starters.

Sean McVay is 7-2 ATS in Week 1 games.

Opening Line: Rams -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

VEGAS UPDATE: I'll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, 49-45 in 2024, and 30-54-1 in 2025.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Saints +7

Bears -3

Vikings -1.5

Ravens -3.5

A big underdog at the top is not something I would have guessed.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The news broke a few weeks ago, but I still can't believe Deshaun Watson was named the starting quarterback for the Browns. Watson criticized the fans for booing him after performing terribly in the preseason, and yet he was still assigned the starting job. Ah, the Browns.

Watson hasn't played good football since 2020, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. The Jaguars have a stout defense that should be able to put some pressure on Watson and force some bad throws from him. Jacksonville lost Devin Lloyd this offseason, but the team is otherwise stacked at every level.

The Browns made their biggest upgrades to their offense at receiver this offseason with a pair of rookies. However, the Jaguars have some talented cornerbacks to counter those additions. This includes Travis Hunter, who will focus more on playing corner this season.

Meanwhile, I don't see Quinshon Judkins getting much on the ground in this matchup.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: If Myles Garrett were still on the Browns, I would consider this a very difficult matchup for Trevor Lawrence. Then again, Lawrence had a tough matchup against the Broncos late last year, and he ate them alive. Lawrence led the Jaguars to a victory with 34 points, scoring four total touchdowns in the process at Mile High last season.

The point is that Lawrence can thrive in tough matchups, and he was so much better at the end of last year when the Jaguars added Jakobi Meyers via trade and incorporated Parker Washington into their offense.

With Garrett gone, the Browns will have a far less potent pass rush, meaning Lawrence should have more time than usual against Cleveland to dissect its defense. The Browns obviously still have plenty of talent on their defense, like Carson Schwesinger and Denzel Ward, but I trust Liam Coen to scheme up the right plays for Lawrence and attack the appropriate parts of Cleveland's defense that won't be buoyed by Garrett's incredible presence.

RECAP: I love fading terrible quarterbacks on bad teams, and this qualifies. Watson is absolutely a terrible quarterback. He should not be starting in the NFL anymore, and frankly, he should not even be in the league altogether. It's a joke that he was named the starter.

The Browns, meanwhile, don't have much talent. Obviously, with Garrett gone, the defense isn't as good, and the rookie receivers will play better down the road, but this is their first game. I don't see them doing all that well against Jacksonville's underrated defense.

Furthermore, the Browns have a new coach and a quarterback who hasn't played in two years. That's not a good omen for Week 1, especially against a veteran Jaguars team that thrived in last year's opener.

The conditions for Cleveland seem horrible, especially when factoring in that it's going to be 90 degrees and sunny in Jacksonville. The Browns, wearing their dark jerseys, will melt in the Florida sun.

I love the Jaguars in this game. The spread may seem high, but it's not nearly high enough. I think they could easily win by three or more touchdowns.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wanted to check an update on the weather. One source has this at 91 degrees and sunny, while the other has this at 88 degrees and raining. The source that says it's sunny indicates that there's barely any rain in the forecast, so I don't know what to believe. Either way, I still love the Jaguars.

SATURDAY NOTES: There's a chance there could be a thunderstorm in this game, so we may see a delay at some point. A thunderstorm would be good for the Browns because they wouldn't have to deal with the Jacksonville heat and humidity. That won't change this pick at all, as Jacksonville should be able to win this game easily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We're getting some late sharp action on the Jaguars, with this line rising to -9 or even -9.5 at some sportsbooks. There are some -8.5s, but you have to pay extra vig for that, which I wouldn't recommend because nine is highly unlikely to hit. The best line is -9 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The heat and humidity could cause the Browns to quit if they're trailing after halftime.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Jaguars -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 67% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Jaguars are 12-18 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.

Jaguars are 20-32 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -7.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 90 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

HATE MAIL: We're going to post hate mail here this year. Here's some hate mail from last year:

I posted this earlier nad wrote how this deranged lunatic had to throw politics in there, and yet he failed to correctly identify my politics. This is the sort of person who eats "peanut butter" found in their rear end.

This guy e-mailed me back:

Talk about eighth-grade intellect! "iF yOuR nOt oN mY sIdE tHeN yOuR mAgA!!!" Actually, forget what I said. Eighth grade is too advanced for this imbecile.

And the next response from him:

Call me crazy, but I don't think Poker Boss has the IQ to agree with me.

Speaking of low IQs, here's someone saying I don't have a job because I had the gall to defend porn:

Guys, I had no idea I've been unemployed the past 19 years! Wow!

And finally, I reported some news about the Vikings reaching out to the Bengals to trade for Joe Burrow, as you can see here. Some moronic Bengals fans took this to mean something about their team when the story was clearly about the Vikings. Here's one such example:

Watch how when I prove that Charlie Campbell and I have had the most accurate mock drafts in the world via the link provided, this imbecile transitions to another tactic against me:

I feel like I'm telling this guy that the sun rises in the east, and he's like "cHeCk yOuRe sOuRcE!" It's been known for quite some time that Burrow is unhappy with Bengals ownership.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: We have two underrated elements pertaining to when the Buccaneers have the ball. Tampa's offense capsized at the end of last year, but only because Baker Mayfield was dealing with multiple injuries, while Emeka Egbuka was playing hurt as well. The offensive line also had its fair share of injuries.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are seen as having a terrible defense, but they've made some nice moves this offseason to bolster the unit to perhaps the middle of the pack.

Still, I expect the Buccaneers to have some success offensively, especially if they're chasing points at the end. The Bengals still have some liabilities in their secondary that Mayfield should be able to exploit.

The Bengals should be better against the run with Dexter Lawrence, but the pass rush still isn't that great, so Mayfield should have time to find Egbuka and his other receivers consistently. Cincinnati was dreadful against tight ends last year, so Cade Otton projects well.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals will definitely score plenty of points in this game. Joe Burrow and his receivers are healthy, which is an uncommon thing in Cincinnati.

The Buccaneers lost some personnel this offseason, though they did acquire some pass-rushing talent in first-round rookie Rueben Bain. I expect the Buccaneers to have a better pass rush, which is not good news for Burrow, who is set to play behind an offensive line that is not very good. Cincinnati's blocking is not terrible, but it's not ideal either.

Still, Burrow and his receivers are just too dynamic, and the Buccaneers have some liabilities in the secondary, especially after losing Jamel Dean in free agency. Burrow should be able to hit his receivers consistently, even though I don't expect the Bengals to have much success running the ball. Vita Vea was also banged up last year and wasn't his usual self, but he's healthy now, so he'll plug the running lanes and stuff Chase Brown.

RECAP: Even though the spread is around four, this line has backdoor cover written all over it. The Bengals, while better defensively this year, are still not that good on that side of the ball. So, if the Buccaneers are trailing, they should be able to score some late points and trim the margin to perhaps within the number.

However, there's a chance that the Buccaneers could just win this game outright. The Bengals are woeful to start the year. Burrow is 3-9 straight up in Weeks 1 and 2, and that includes a Week 1 victory last year in which the Browns outgained the Bengals by 200-plus yards but only lost because of some crazy stuff that happened that I chronicled in my newest book, Year of the Bad Beat. The Bengals easily could have lost that game, meaning Burrow could be 2-10 straight up in Weeks 1 and 2.

For whatever reason, Cincinnati just doesn't play well to start the year. Conversely, Todd Bowles-coached teams are tremendous in Weeks 1 and 2. This may surprise people who consider Bowles to be a pedestrian head coach, which is probably the case, but Bowles is 12-3 against the spread in Weeks 1 and 2.

Perhaps this is just fluky, but maybe Bowles just has the secret formula to getting his team to play well to begin the year. In any case, I will be taking the points here, and I will be betting the Buccaneers aggressively.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Although Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are expected to play through their minor injuries, the sharp money has apparently moved this line down from +4 to +3.5, with the pros betting on the Buccaneers at +4.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are not on the final injury report. No one of consequence is aside from Jalen McMillan. I remain confident in the Buccaneers covering.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp money has come in on either side, which is a bit surprising. There is one sportsbook that has +4 available at vig less than -110, and that would be BetMGM at +4 -108.

PROPS: I'm going to take a shot on Cade Otton to have the most receiving yards in this game at +2700. He's worth a shot, given how bad Cincinnati is against tight ends. The best number is at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bengals -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

No edge found.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 58% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 152-105 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Todd Bowles is 12-3 ATS in Weeks 1-2.

Joe Burrow is 47-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-7 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 3-9 SU in Weeks 1-2.

Opening Line: Bengals -3.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 84 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts are the toughest team to predict this season. We have no idea how healthy Daniel Jones and his receivers are, which makes handicapping this game very difficult.

Jones is coming off a torn Achilles, which is a brutal injury for quarterbacks. The past two quarterbacks coming off torn Achilles injuries were Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers, both of whom struggled the following year. Jones is younger than those quarterbacks were, but he's also way more mobile. He makes some of his best plays using his legs, and he may not be able to do that this year.

Meanwhile, Jones' receivers are also banged up. Alec Pierce may play in Week 1, but he dealt with a foot injury all offseason. Josh Downs is banged up as well. This is not good against a Baltimore secondary that has loads of talent and is supported by a strong pass rush.

If the Ravens don't have to respect the pass, they'll be able to stack the box against Jonathan Taylor. While Taylor is extremely talented, he struggled at the end of last season because teams loaded the box against him. That could persist this year if Jones and his receivers aren't healthy.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Colts aren't the only team with uncertainty regarding their offense this year. Lamar Jackson will be operating behind what appears to be a diminished offensive line.

The Ravens lost Tyler Linderbaum, one of the best centers in the NFL, and planned to replace him with a pedestrian substitute. However, that replacement also got hurt, so the Ravens are now down to their third option at center. To compensate for this, they used a first-round pick on guard Vega Ioane, but it remains to be seen how well he'll perform in his first game.

Jackson is obviously an electric talent, but his production plummets when there are problems on the offensive line, which appears to be the case right now. Jackson would love to lean on Derrick Henry if the offensive line isn't giving him as much protection as he's used to receiving. However, Henry also has to deal with diminished blocking, and the Colts are strong against the run anyway.

Indianapolis also has Sauce Gardner in the secondary, so the Colts will have a plan against Zay Flowers. Baltimore lost two key tight ends this offseason, so given that Mark Andrews is in severe decline, the Ravens will need to rely much more on Flowers and rookie receiver Ja'Kobi Lane this season. Lane, however, will have his work cut out for him against Charvarius Ward.

RECAP: I'm not sure what to make of this game. Is Jones healthy? Are the Colts' receivers anywhere close to 100 percent? Can Baltimore's offensive line hold up? Will Henry be decrepit now that he is 32 years old?

All of these are legitimate questions that will be answered eventually. However, we don't have the answers now, so handicapping this game is a nightmare.

With the Ravens breaking in a new head coach, I'm going to side with the Colts, but won't be doing so with any sort of confidence.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's still too much uncertainty in this game. It's very difficult to handicap, but I'm still leaning toward the Colts.

SATURDAY NOTES: We've had a conflict between the two guests on the After Dark Show, with Andy favoring the Ravens in the matchup, and Evan liking the Colts. I'm still leaning Indianapolis, with nothing having changed since the early part of the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Colts on Sunday morning. Most of the +3.5s are gone. The best one you can get is +3.5 -122 at FanDuel, which is worth paying up for if you like the home dog. It's worth paying -127 for the key number of three, assuming the other options are at -110. The best +3 costs -107 at BetRivers, so that would mean that you can pay up to -125 for the +3.5.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Ravens -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Decent action on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 65% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I'll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They'll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons were the final team to announce their starting quarterback. They decided on Tua Tagovailoa, which is music to my ears. I've been joking on X for months that there will be generational wealth to be made by betting against Tagovailoa this year. And I got my wish with him starting this game.

Tagovailoa used to be a good quarterback, but that's no longer the case. It's sad, but his brain is just mush right now from all the concussions he's suffered over the years. He's no longer a functional quarterback in this league, and I'm not just talking about as a starter. I don't think he belongs in the NFL anymore, and he should consider retirement.

I'm actually scared for his safety in this matchup. The Steelers have great pass rushers, and the Falcons don't seem like they can protect him very well, especially with right tackle Kaleb McGary heading into retirement.

Tagovailoa will look to avoid this pass rush by dinking and dunking constantly, which is not going to be very effective. He'll also hope that Bijan Robinson bails him out with some big runs, which could happen on occasion. However, the Steelers are more than capable of limiting opposing rushing attacks, so Robinson will be somewhat limited, though he could still have a good game.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Quarterback is Atlanta's main issue, but the Falcons have other big problems as well. They spent two first-round picks on edge rushers in the 2025 NFL Draft, and yet neither of them is going to play this year. One has been suspended, while the other suffered a season-ending injury. This is great news for Aaron Rodgers, who doesn't want to get hit.

Obviously, no quarterback wants to get hit, but Rodgers purposely releases the ball as quickly as possible to avoid any sort of contact. This might be a rare game in which Rodgers will be able to hold the ball longer than usual. If so, he will be able to connect with his enhanced receiver group, which includes Michael Pittman Jr., who should take over Kenneth Gainwell's role as the de facto No. 2 receiver.

The Steelers should be able to run the ball effectively as well. The Falcons have a very weak defensive front. And while I don't expect much from Jaylen Warren or Rico Dowdle this year, this might be a rare game in which they thrive.

RECAP: There are numerous things here that greatly benefit the Steelers. First of all, I love to fade new coach-plus-new quarterback combinations in Week 1. The Falcons have a new coach and a new quarterback with Tagovailoa starting. The Steelers also have a new coach, but Rodgers is back for another season, so that gives Pittsburgh a big edge.

Another thing going against the Falcons is that they have a terrible quarterback on a bad team. I love fading horrible signal callers on putrid rosters, and Tagovailoa qualifies. Like I said before, he used to be good, but he's gotten way too many concussions over his career, and he's no longer a viable starter. Mike McDaniel got the most out of him in his final years, but that wasn't even enough. Tagovailoa was blown out in some games last year, including a horrible loss at Cleveland. I think this could be similar, although the weather won't be nearly as bad as it was in that game.

Given the discrepancy in talent between these teams, I made this line much higher than it is. My numbers say this spread should be Steelers -5.5, and I'm not even a big fan of Pittsburgh this year. The Falcons are miserable and should be larger underdogs.

The spread was -3 a couple of weeks ago, but it has climbed to -3.5 in some sportsbooks, with sharp money coming in on Pittsburgh. This would be my Pick of the Month at -3, but if I can't get -3, I'm still going to bet the Steelers heavily at -3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I've been searching for a -3 line, but I can't find one. I'd be willing to pay up to -127 on -3, which is the mathematical break-even point.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for -3. This spread soared to -6 on the news that Tagovailoa is out. I don't think this is quite warranted because Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush are similar-caliber quarterbacks. I still like the Steelers despite the increased spread, but this won't be my Pick of the Month.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joey Porter Jr. is out for the Steelers, but they won't need him against Cooper Rush. There was news of Rush suffering through back spasms on Saturday. As someone who has chronic back spasms, I will tell you that they don't just go away. Pittsburgh looks great - the sharps agree - though the spread is very ugly. With all of the -6s gone, the best line is -6.5 -109 at BetRivers.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Steelers -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

People are aware of the Atlanta quarterback situation.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 66% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Aaron Rodgers is 142-106 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 80 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen can't have been happy to see that the Texans were his first opponent in the 2026 NFL season. Houston has been a house of horrors for Allen, who has lost the previous two times he's played there, including last year's 23-19 defeat on a Thursday night. Allen was sacked eight times in that game and never had a chance in the pocket. The Texans might even have more success getting to him this year because they added Jadeveon Clowney for pass-rushing depth, and the Bills lost an offensive lineman this offseason.

One factor working in Buffalo's favor is that D.J. Moore is on the team, so Allen has a legitimate No. 1 receiver at his disposal for the first time since Stefon Diggs departed. Moore should help, but Allen simply won't have much time to find him downfield, so there won't be many big plays out of the passing game.

James Cook won't have much success running either. The Texans were great against the run as well last year. Cook could have some potential as a receiver in this game because the Bills apparently want to use him more as a receiver out of the backfield. However, there's just going to be way too much pressure from Houston's defense for Buffalo to maintain anything consistently.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans will have more success offensively in this game than they did last year in their 23-19 victory. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, the offensive line was upgraded this offseason with multiple new blockers added, so the running game will be more successful as a result. Second, the Texans signed David Montgomery, who is going to be a much better runner than Woody Marks was last year, and this is crucial in this game because the Bills ranked 31st against the run last year. Montgomery should be able to have a big game.

The offensive line upgrade should also help C.J. Stroud, who really struggled at the end of last season. Stroud has regressed each year after his great rookie campaign, but he could potentially rebound this year because the offensive line upgrades will give him more time in the pocket.

Stroud will definitely need all the help he can get. While the Bills were woeful against the run last year, they were also excellent against the pass. It would be nice if Tank Dell and Jayden Higgins were available for Stroud, but that is not the case.

RECAP: This has been a horrible matchup for the Bills, and I don't see why things would suddenly change. Well, there might be one thing, but I'll get to that in a second.

Allen has really struggled with Houston's immense pressure, and as stated earlier, that could be even worse for Allen this year because Clowney is there to provide depth. Meanwhile, Buffalo's run defense will be tested against Montgomery. The Texans didn't even have this advantage last year, and now they do.

The one angle that could benefit the Bills is that Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is 0-6 against the spread in Weeks 1 and 2. However, it must be noted that many of those games have been against coaches who have thrived early in the season.

For example, the Texans nearly beat the Rams in Week 1 last year, and Sean McVay has a pristine Week 1 record. The following week, the Texans battled the Buccaneers, and as discussed in a previous pick capsule, Todd Bowles is excellent to begin the year as well.

With that in mind, this 0-6 record may not be indicative of how Ryans has prepared his teams. I'm going with the Texans, but will not be betting them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I still have a slight lean on the Texans. The sharps haven't come in on this game either.

SATURDAY NOTES: There's nothing of note on the injury report outside of Ty Johnson being questionable, which is not a big deal. I still would lean toward the Texans, but don't plan on betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Texans on Sunday morning. This line is now +1, and the best spread you can get is +1 -108 at BetMGM. Do not pay up for +1.5.

PROP: I'm adding David Montgomery 70+ rushing yards at +178 at FanDuel. I think he's mispriced in this great matchup.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Texans -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 54% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

DeMeco Ryans is 0-6 ATS in Weeks 1-2.

Opening Line: Bills -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

I mentioned earlier that I have a new book called Year of the Bad Beat. In it, I re-live the horrors of the 28 NFL bad beats we suffered last year, as well as some others from NBA and golf. If you want to experience my misery, check it out:

CHICAGO OFFENSE: There are some people who expect the Bears to regress this year because they were lucky to win some games in 2025. While they could decline, I don't think it'll be because of variance, given that the team will be in the second year of Ben Johnson's offense, which means that the group as a whole would likely improve in a vacuum.

The problem, however, is the offensive line. Left tackle Ozzy Trapilo is out with a major injury, while last year's center Drew Dalman retired. The Bears acquired Garrett Bradbury as a replacement, but he's a pedestrian blocker at best, so teams will be able to take advantage of this liability.

The Panthers might be able to do that. They've struggled to put pressure on the quarterback in recent years, but they signed Jaelan Phillips to improve their pass rush. With Phillips on the edge and Derrick Brown in the interior, the Panthers may have what it takes to disrupt Caleb Williams.

Carolina also bolstered its linebacker group, acquiring All-Pro Devin Lloyd and Bobby Okereke to upgrade the area. This gives the Panthers a chance to limit D'Andre Swift.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: While the Panthers have improved their pass rush, the Bears haven't done anything to bolster this area. This was a major problem for them last year, as Montez Sweat was the only consistent pass rusher on the team. The Bears barely added any talent this offseason in that regard.

This is great news for the Panthers, who also have offensive line issues. Their left tackle is out for the season, while their right tackle is dealing with blood clots in his lungs. They signed a replacement for the former in Rasheed Walker, but right tackle is a major void right now. However, the Bears don't appear to have the firepower to take advantage of this liability.

I also question if the Bears will be able to stop the run. There's not much talent in the interior of this defense, so Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks could be in a great position to succeed.

RECAP: The Bears are better than the Panthers despite their defensive deficiencies, but are they three points better on the road? I'm not so sure.

Either way, it's worth noting that both of these teams started very poorly last year. In fact, the Panthers are just 1-3 against the spread in Weeks 1 and 2 under Dave Canales, and that one cover was a miraculous ATS win against the Cardinals in Week 2, which I wrote about in my new book, Year of the Bad Beat.

In the opener last year, the Panthers were thoroughly destroyed by the Jaguars. But before you lock in the Bears based on Canales' poor performances in Weeks 1 and 2, consider that last season, Chicago lost to J.J. McCarthy and then was blown out by the Lions in the first two weeks of the year. Granted, the McCarthy loss was Ben Johnson's first game as a head coach, but still, losing to McCarthy is as bad as it gets.

I'm going to pass on betting this game unless we get some news or crazy injury updates. I'm siding with the Panthers. Remember, the Bears won almost nothing but close games last year, and if that persists, they could win without covering this spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Barring some surprise injury or unexpected line movement, I don't anticipate betting this game. I'm still leaning toward the Panthers, but the Bears could easily win by more than three.

SATURDAY NOTES: It's a surprise that Ozzy Trapilo might play in this game. He's listed as questionable with limited practices each day. If he can suit up, the Bears' offensive line will be in a much better position than Carolina's, which is missing two tackles and a guard. If I thought the Bears could take advantage of this poor blocking, I'd side with them, but Chicago's pass rush is very weak.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Rome Odunze will play, but Ozzy Trapilo, who had a miraculous chance to play in Week 1, will be sidelined. I'm still leaning toward the Panthers. The sharps haven't touched this game. The best line is Carolina +3 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Bears -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Tons of action coming in on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 70% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 87 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

Video of the Week: You're going to have to go to YouTube directly for this one, but I'm contractually obligated to show you an episode of NFL Primetime to show you what we've been missing since 2005. It truly is a shame that ESPN canceled this amazing show, as we got to hear Chris Berman and Tom Jackson break down games including a Warren Sapp game-winning touchdown and a Clinton Portis 50-point fantasy performance to some amazing music.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Many consider the Jets to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, but I don't think that's the case. They added some very talented defensive players this offseason, including Minkah Fitzpatrick, Demario Davis, and T'Vondre Sweat to really bolster their defense. And don't forget No. 2 overall pick David Bailey, who will enhance the pass rush.

This improved pass rush will be detrimental for the Titans. Cam Ward is not protected well. Tennessee's offensive line is one of the weaker blocking units in the NFL, so Ward will crumble under pressure. Ward at least has an improved group of receivers this offseason, with Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson providing upgrades. However, Ward simply isn't good enough to overcome all the pressure he will see and constantly deliver passes to his new receivers.

Ward will be hoping for Tony Pollard to alleviate some pressure for him. However, Pollard faces an improved Jets run defense that will be enhanced by Sweat and Davis.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Another thing I really like about the Jets is their offensive line. They have two recent first-round tackles who have immense potential, especially Armand Membou, who was terrific as a rookie last year. Meanwhile, guard Joe Tippmann is an excellent blocker.

With these quality offensive linemen, the Jets should be able to keep the Titans at bay, although Tennessee upgraded the defensive line this offseason with John Franklin-Myers joining the team.

Geno Smith was awful last year, but he didn't have anything close to this level of protection in Las Vegas. Smith will have time in the pocket to locate Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, and some of his new receivers. Granted, the Titans upgraded both cornerback spots this offseason, but neither new corner is talented enough to keep up with Wilson.

Smith will also be able to lean on Breece Hall. The talented running back can go the distance anytime he touches the ball, and he'll have an opportunity to do so against a Tennessee defense that is not very good. The Titans have some major problems at linebacker, so this is an area Hall could easily exploit.

RECAP: Many people view this as a battle between two bad teams, but I don't see it that way. I think the Jets are mediocre or maybe slightly worse than that, whereas the Titans are one of the five worst teams in the NFL.

Tennessee has a miserable offensive line, while Cam Ward hasn't really shown much in the NFL. Ward had what seemed to be some improved performances late last season, but much of what he did occurred in garbage time or against teams that were terrible. Ward was awful in the preseason, which wasn't a surprise, especially given how poor Tennessee's blocking is.

With that in mind, I believe the Jets should be favored in this game. That is not the case, however; the Titans are favored by 1.5 points, which doesn't seem right. Granted, I don't think the Jets should be favored by three either, so it's not like we're going through any key numbers or anything. Thus, there's not a lot of value with the Jets, but I do believe that they're the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Every time I think it's preposterous that the Jets are underdogs in this matchup, I remember that many people consider them to be one of the worst teams in the league. That is obviously not the case.

SATURDAY NOTES: There isn't too much on the injury report aside from the Jets missing one of their return specialists and the Titans missing one of their starting linebackers. I still am leaning toward the Jets as a small play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There's been a bit of sharp money on the Jets, but nothing crazy. The best line is +1 -108 at BetMGM. As I wrote in the Bills-Texans game, don't pay up for +1.5.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Titan -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

No edge found.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 54% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Titans -1.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Fog, 89 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

The Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my first book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would've happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

DETROIT OFFENSE: I didn't love Detroit's offense heading into last year because they lost multiple offensive linemen and Ben Johnson departed for Chicago. Things have changed this offseason because they added some offensive line talent, so they'll be able to protect Jared Goff much better this year, which is not a great sign for the Saints' chances in this game. The Saints don't particularly rush the quarterback all that well, which is basically a death sentence against Goff, who is exceptional when he has tons of time in the pocket.

Goff should be able to find his weapons pretty consistently against the Saints' defense, which won't have Demario Davis this year. Davis signed with the Jets, and his absence will leave a huge hole over the middle of the field, which is a problem against the Lions, who attack the middle of the field aggressively with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

Jahmyr Gibbs won't have as much of an easy time running against the Saints, who were better against the run than the pass last year. However, Gibbs should have great success as a receiver out of the backfield in the season opener.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game. Their quarterback, Tyler Shough, is inexperienced, but he showed a lot of potential at the end of last year.

Shough should have a solid performance against Detroit's secondary. The Lions have several injuries at safety, which Shough should be able to exploit pretty easily, especially late in the game during a potential back-door cover. Shough is also protected well, though Aidan Hutchinson will surely get to him on some occasions.

Meanwhile, the Lions should be able to handle the run pretty well, and I don't think Travis Etienne will be able to do very much against this defense. Etienne had a great season for Jacksonville, but without Liam Coen aiding him, he won't be as successful this year, especially against a very strong Detroit run defense.

RECAP: I like to glance ahead at the following week's matchups to determine if any team will be unfocused for its current game. There aren't too many exciting Week 2 battles, but one that is intriguing is the Thursday night contest between the Lions and Bills.

Detroit somehow has to prepare for arguably the best team in the AFC on just three days of rest following this "easy game" against the Saints. There's a good chance the Lions will be unfocused.

Then again, I thought the same of the Redskins last year when they opened their season against the miserable Russell Wilson-led Giants and had the Micah Parsons-led Packers four days later. The Redskins dominated the Giants in a blowout victory. Then again, the Redskins and Giants are divisional rivals, so perhaps I was foolish in thinking the Redskins would look ahead.

The Lions and Saints are obviously not rivals, and Detroit doesn't have too much film on Shough. So, this could be a letdown for sure.

At the very least, Shough could put the Saints in position for a backdoor cover at the end of the game. I'm going to be on New Orleans, but psychological edges are most difficult to predict, so I will not be betting the Saints.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has fallen from 7.5 to 7, indicating that there's some sharp money coming in on the Saints. I can't get there, but I understand why they like the side.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Saints won't have Cameron Jordan, which is a big hit to their already-shaky pass rush. I don't see the Lions facing much resistance in this game, aside from their own via the look-ahead to Thursday's game against Buffalo. The Lions have their own defensive issues - both safeties are out - so we should see plenty of points between the two teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps liked the Saints at +7.5, but not +7. The best line is a pure +7 -110, which you can get at several books, including DraftKings.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Lions have to play the Bills in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Lions -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Decent action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 65% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -7.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.