NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2026 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
2026 NFL Picks: 5-7 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,0550)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 13, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 1 NFL Picks - Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I'm excited to see what Mike McDaniel can do with the Chargers' offense this year. The Chargers were already expected to bounce back with the health of their tackles, who both missed extensive action last season. Now, McDaniel will be able to take the Chargers out of the Stone Age and bring them into the 21st century.

McDaniel should be able to put on a show in this game. He'll have Justin Herbert attack the many weaknesses of Arizona's defense. The Cardinals have some major liabilities at linebacker and cornerback, which Herbert will be able to exploit masterfully.

I also expect the Chargers to be able to run the ball easily against the Cardinals. Omarion Hampton projects very well this year, especially with McDaniel. Remember, McDaniel turned journeyman Raheem Mostert into a near-20-touchdown scorer, so imagine what he's going to do with a first-round talent like Hampton.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: While the Chargers have an exciting new offensive coordinator, they lost their great defensive coordinator, with Jesse Minter taking Baltimore's head-coaching job. Minter had the Chargers as the No. 2 EPA defense last year, so the unit will definitely take a hit. Luckily, the Chargers have a positive matchup to begin the season.

Those who enjoyed Arizona's fantasy points last season may disagree that this is a great matchup for the Chargers, but that is truly the case. Arizona did much of its damage last year in garbage time, so its numbers were inflated. For example, when Jacoby Brissett set the single-game record for most completions, he did so when trailing by more than 20 points against the 49ers.

The Chargers have a talented pass rush with Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu, as well as first-round rookie Akheem Mesidor. They'll be able to put heat on Brissett throughout the afternoon.

The Chargers figure to be worse against the run than the pass this year, but if they're well ahead, as we expect them to be, there won't be many running opportunities for Jeremiyah Love, if he even plays.

RECAP: How can you not love the Chargers in this matchup? They're much better than the Cardinals. The Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Cardinals are in the bottom five. There's a great discrepancy in talent between these teams, and I personally made the spread 14.5. The line is currently only 9.5, which makes no sense to me.

If this game were to take place in Week 8, the Chargers would be favored by close to two touchdowns. The only reason this spread is so low is because it's Week 1, and the oddsmakers hate making huge lines during the opening week of the season.

This advantage for the Chargers is not even factoring in Jim Harbaugh's pristine Week 1 record. Harbaugh is a perfect 6-0 against the spread in Week 1. Granted, this is a relatively small sample size, but it makes sense that Harbaugh would be dominant to start the year. Harbaugh is a fantastic coach, so if you give someone like him extra time to prepare, he's going to make great use of it.

I suspect that this is going to be an ugly blowout. We could see Trey Lance in the fourth quarter.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chargers remain one of the top picks this week. Jim Harbaugh being undefeated against the spread in Week 1 cements it.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals will be missing their two two right guards on a right side of the offensive line that already looked shaky. They're also missing their slot cornerback, so you can bet that Mike McDaniel has taken notice of that.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I'm surprised this line hasn't gone up to -10. There's been sharp action on both sides.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line still hasn't moved, as the sharps haven't taken an interest in this game at this price. The best line is -9.5 -108 at Caesars. I don't see any -9s at -110 vig.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Chargers -12.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Slight lean on the Chargers early in the week, but a lot of money late.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 70% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS in Week 1.

Opening Line: Chargers -8.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Those who wanted to see Fernando Mendoza start the opener for the Raiders can't be too happy about Klint Kubiak's decision. However, it was the right one. Mendoza looked completely lost in the preseason, while Kirk Cousins was just fine. Mendoza seems like he needs some time to prepare to be the starter, which has to be music to Kubiak's ears, given that Kubiak said earlier that he doesn't want a rookie quarterback starting for his team.

Besides, Kubiak has familiarity with Cousins, given that he coached him with the Vikings several years ago. Kubiak should be able to get Cousins to perform well against a Miami secondary that has some liabilities. JuJu Brents is a good corner, but Jason Marshall is awful. First-round rookie corner Chris Johnson is an unknown as well. Kubiak should be able to scheme his receivers against those bad corners, though it must be noted that the Raiders don't have good receivers, so this is not an ideal matchup or anything.

The Dolphins were better against the run than the pass last year, so that will be helpful in this matchup. Ashton Jeanty may not be 100 percent, but Mike Washington Jr. looked terrific in the preseason.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Like the Raiders, the Dolphins have a new head coach and a new quarterback, but the two have familiarity with each other. Jeff Hafley was Malik Willis' coach in Green Bay, and Willis performed well while with the Packers, albeit in brief action.

Willis will have a chance against a Raiders secondary that has some liabilities as well. But like Las Vegas, Miami has some question marks at receiver. The Dolphins at least have more potential there, given that two of their top wideouts are rookies. Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell are both athletic freaks with tons of upside. I don't know if they'll be quite ready to dominate in Week 1, but they could be forces down the road. Still, when talking about this matchup, you can't be overly optimistic about their chances, even against a bad Raiders secondary.

Willis will get some heat from Maxx Crosby, so De'Von Achane will have to bail out the Dolphins. Achane is a dynamic back who can go the distance anytime he touches the ball, even against great defenses. The Raiders have been poor against the run for many years, but they strengthened their linebacker corps with two new additions this offseason. There might be some chemistry issues early, which could create an opportunity for Achane, but this is not the promising matchup that it would have been a year ago.

RECAP: There are lots of unknowns in this game that make this contest unfavorable for betting purposes. I love to fade new head coach and quarterback combinations in Week 1, but both the Dolphins and Raiders have that dynamic.

We don't know how Kubiak and Hafley will translate to being head coaches in the NFL. And both teams have many new additions that are unknowns at the moment.

What I do know is that the Raiders are generating lots of enthusiasm from survivor pool players who believe that this is an easy win for them. I really don't think it is, as I believe this game could go either way.

Given that this is almost a toss-up, I'm going to take the points with the Dolphins, but not with any confidence.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We have some major injury news here, as Brock Bowers is out for this game and the next one. There's some major criticism needed for the Raiders and team reporters for not delivering the news until now. As far as this game is concerned, the line has dropped from +3.5 to +3. I think I'd still side with the Dolphins, but -3 is much more appealing with the Raiders, even with Bowers out.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brock Bowers, as we know, is out. Ashton Jeanty, meanwhile, is not on the injury report. I would expect him to split the workload with Mike Washington in his first game back, so don't be too happy if you're a fantasy owner of his.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have zero interest in betting this game. I can't lay three with the Raiders, but I don't want to bet what could be the worst team in the NFL.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven't touched this game at this line, and I don't blame them. The best line for the Dolphins is +3 -108 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Raiders -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 52% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Raiders are 21-37 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It seems as though everyone's down on the Redskins, and for good reason. Their offense looks like a mess right now, given the issues on the offensive line. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil is out, so Washington will have issues with Philadelphia's great edge rush. Center Nick Allegretti also was injured throughout training camp, though it looks like he's ready to go for Week 1. We don't know if he's healthy or not, but at least he'll be playing.

Still, this looks like an area in which the Eagles should be able to dominate. They have a great defensive front, and Washington has a weak offensive line, so Jayden Daniels will constantly be running for his life. Daniels will also be throwing into a talented secondary that should be able to stymie his weapons.

I also don't expect much from Washington's running game, which is pretty pedestrian. The Eagles have two mammoths at defensive tackle who should be able to take care of anything Jacory Croskey-Merritt tries.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It's also difficult to be bullish on Washington's defense. The team added numerous starters this offseason, but only a few of them project well. With seven new starters on defense, the team will have to gel, and it's unlikely that there will be much cohesion in Week 1. Furthermore, first-round rookie Sonny Styles needs to actually show something because he was truly terrible in the preseason. Styles is very talented and could improve, but Saquon Barkley could eat his lunch in this game.

I'm concerned about the Redskins' pass rush as well. They added Odafe Oweh to improve things, but the Eagles, when healthy, have a great blocking unit. Jalen Hurts should have all the time he needs to dissect a secondary with two new starting corners and a new starting safety.

A.J. Brown is gone, but DeVonta Smith has shown in the past that he's a capable No. 1 receiver. Meanwhile, Dallas Goedert figures to thrive against a defense that has been awful against tight ends recently.

RECAP: I love to bet against preseason overreactions, and so Washington looks like a great spot in theory. Everyone was saying how bad the Redskins are on both sides of the ball, and that might be true. However, it's not like the Eagles are a great team anymore either.

Perhaps the Eagles will bounce back this year if Sean Mannion proves to be a big upgrade over what the Eagles had with Kevin Patullo last year, but that's no guarantee. We have no idea if Mannion is going to be a good coordinator, and we don't know if Barkley can bounce back to something close to his 2024 form, despite this great opening-week matchup.

What we do know, however, is that Dan Quinn is awful at preparing his team to start the year. Quinn is 2-6 against the spread in Week 1, and one of those victories came last year against a miserable Russell Wilson-led Giants team.

I will be on the Eagles here, but I'm not sure if I'll get around to betting them because of all the uncertainty surrounding Philadelphia.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Still not getting to any sort of bet in this game. There are just way too many unknowns.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps bet the Eagles up to -6 on Thursday. I speculated that this was because the Redskins put a million players on the injury report. As it turns out, of those million players, none were ruled out. Redskins +6 might be the play, but I'm not betting this game either way.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I have a feeling that there was some shady behavior regarding the Redskins' injury report. They listed a million players, yet no one had an injury designation at the end of the week. Was this a ploy for the sharps to get +6? Maybe I'm just a conspiracy theorist.

PROPS: The Redskins were the second-worst defense against tight ends last year, so I'm willing to take a shot on Dallas Goedert to be the leading receiver at +750 on FanDuel.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp action on the Eagles below -6, but not at -6. If you want to bet them, the best line is -6 -102 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Eagles -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Decent lean on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 66% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 13 of the last 18 meetings.

Dan Quinn is 2-6 ATS in Week 1.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 82 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Much has changed for these teams, pertaining to when the Vikings have the ball compared to a year ago. When considering the Vikings, they started J.J. McCarthy last season, and he ended up being an unmitigated disaster. McCarthy was one of the least-accurate quarterbacks in the NFL, and he had no feel for the game. He's not even a No. 2 quarterback in this league, and yet the Vikings trotted him out onto the field for many starts and ended up paying the price.

Meanwhile, the Packers had a great defense last year that was buoyed by Micah Parsons. However, Parsons tore his ACL late in the year, and the Packers never won a single game after that. Keep in mind that they had Rashan Gary in those games, and they lost Gary this offseason.

The Packers have no pass rush without Parsons and Gary at the moment. Looking at the depth chart, I have zero clue how they're going to be able to generate any sort of pressure on Kyler Murray.

Granted, Murray's not the best quarterback, and I'm certainly no fan due to his lack of effort. However, he has a nice matchup in this game because he'll have all the time he needs in the pocket behind an offensive line that is stout when healthy. Murray should be able to find his talented receivers against a Green Bay secondary that can easily be torched when not given any support from the pass rush.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: While Murray has a great matchup against the opposing defense, Jordan Love can't say the same. Love has never looked comfortable against Brian Flores' defense. Even in the game last year in which the Packers won 23-6, Love did not play all that well. He completed 14-of-21 passes but had just 139 yards in the game.

In the two matchups the preceding year, Love got buried in the first half of the initial matchup and compiled great stats in garbage time. In the second meeting, Love constantly threw off his back foot in a loss.

Making matters worse for Love, the offensive line is a severe concern. Left tackle Rasheed Walker is gone, so first-round bust Jordan Morgan will be forced to start on the blind side. At right tackle, Zach Tom, who changed his name this offseason to Zach Bako-Bewele - which confused me to no end and had me believing that this was a Mandela effect - is recovering from a brutal knee injury and may not be ready for this game.

If Tom/Bako-Bewele is out or is hindered by the injury, Love is not going to have a chance against Flores' pass rush. The Vikings won't even have to respect the running game as much, given Josh Jacobs' absence.

RECAP: It doesn't seem as though the public understands how bad the Packers are. The over-under for their season win total is 8.5, which seems extremely high considering the issues with their pass rush and offensive line.

Again, the Packers didn't win a single game last year without Parsons, and they at least had Gary to pick up some of the slack in the pass-rushing department. Gary's gone now, so Green Bay's best edge rusher is either first-round bust Lukas Van Ness or someone named Barryn Sorrell. Perhaps it's fourth-round rookie Dani Dennis-Sutton. Either way, it's not promising.

Meanwhile, the offensive line is in tatters, given the injuries and departures with the tackles. Making matters worse, the Packers lost numerous key coaches this offseason. Jeff Hafley took the Dolphins' head-coaching job, while quarterbacks coach Sean Mannion is now the offensive coordinator for the Eagles. The Packers also lost their linebackers coach, defensive backs coach, receivers coach, and several other defensive coaches who went with Hafley to Miami. Preparing for Week 1 without so many coaches from a year ago will be extremely difficult.

Despite all of these advantages for the Vikings, they are just favored by 1.5, which makes no sense to me. I would have made the line at least three, if not 3.5, so we're getting a ton of value with Minnesota.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven't seen any line movement here, but if the spread starts going up, I may lock in the Vikings before it gets to -3. I'm not saying it'll get there, but there's a chance it will.

SATURDAY NOTES: I thought about making the Vikings my September NFL Pick of the Month, but I was under the impression that Green Bay Pro Bowler Zach Bako (formerly Zach Tom) was going to be sidelined for sure, but he's questionable after being limited all week, so he has a chance to play. Both Bako and Aaron Banks are questionable, so there's a chance Green Bay could be down two blockers against Brian Flores' defense.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I saw some sharp money coming in on the Vikings, but not a lot yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Vikings, so that's good news. I'm going to increase the unit count to five. The best line is -2 -109 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Vikings -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 51% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Teams have split 4 of the past 5 years.

Packers are 69-49 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 62-50 ATS in the regular season.

Vikings are 53-42 ATS at home since 2014 (22-27 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Packers -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

If you didn't catch it, I posted live bets last year, including Derrick Henry over rushing yards in Week 17. I'll be posting live bets on Discord because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Go to the WalterFootball Discord for those live betting updates.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Cowboys' defense has been terrible ever since Micah Parsons departed, but the unit figures to be much better this year. Dallas added Rashan Gary, Von Miller, and a couple of rookies, including Caleb Downs. And don't forget that DeMarvion Overshown, a talented linebacker, has barely played over the past couple of years because of injury. He's back at full strength now, meaning the Cowboys have what looks to be a fairly decent defense.

With Gary, Miller, and first-round rookie Malachi Lawrence, the Cowboys figure to put much more pressure on the quarterback this year. This is not good news for Jaxson Dart, who often makes trips to the medical blue tent. The Giants don't have the best talent on the offensive line. They don't have a terrible blocking unit, but it's something that the Cowboys can overpower, which means Dart could take some hits in this game. Hopefully, he slides when running away from pressure.

The one angle where the Giants should be able to attack the Cowboys is via Cam Skattebo. The talented back has returned from injury, and he figures to have what seems to be a nice matchup against Dallas' run defense.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I mentioned the Cowboys having an advantage with their pass rush against the Giants' offensive line, but the biggest edge in this game is Dallas' receivers versus the Giants' cornerbacks. New York has some putrid corners, and the Cowboys obviously have two dynamic threats at the position. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens will tear the Giants' secondary apart.

With that in mind, the Giants' pass rush will absolutely need to rattle Dak Prescott. Normally, this wouldn't be possible, even given all the talent the Giants have gotten on the defensive front in the past several drafts. The Cowboys usually have a great blocking unit, but left tackle Tyler Smith is out for this game. Still, Smith's absence only one injury, and teams can often game plan around one injury. I don't think the Cowboys will be able to hit their full potential, but they still should be able to throw well against two poor corners.

The Giants, though, at least have better luck stopping the run. They lost Dexter Lawrence but signed D.J. Reader, so they'll have someone to stuff Javonte Williams. Still, this won't be enough to completely slow down Dallas' offense, which should still score a fairly high number of points in this game.

RECAP: I was talking about this game with Evan Daniel on the After Dark Show, which you can find on the WalterFootball YouTube channel. Evan made a great point. He said that he always bets the Giants in this matchup and always ends up losing. This is because the Giants never beat the Cowboys. Well, OK, they did late last year, but the Cowboys sat their starters in the second half of that Week 18 affair. Aside from the second meeting last season, the previous time the Giants beat the Cowboys was during the 2020 season in Week 17. However, the Cowboys also played their backup quarterback in that game.

If you're curious about the last time the Giants beat a Dallas starting quarterback, you have to go all the way back to Dec. 11, 2016, when the Giants vanquished the Cowboys by the score of 10-7, beating Dak Prescott in his rookie year.

I don't know why the Cowboys always beat up on the Giants, but they do. And I don't see anything to suggest that New York will be able to buck this trend. I do like Dart and Skattebo, so perhaps they'll be able to overcome the franchise's demons. However, the Cowboys have the two biggest edges in this game with their receivers and their pass rush against the Giants' secondary and offensive line, respectively.

This is also a low number, so as long as this is three or less, I have interest in the Cowboys. This won't be a big bet, but I will be on Dallas for a couple of units.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We're going to parlay Jaxson Dart rushing over and Cam Skattebo rushing over, both with Cowboys -2.5. Dart will be running a lot if he's down. Skattebo is negative correlation, but we're dragging the number down to 40. He had 40-plus rushing yards in every game last year, save for the second Eagles game when he got hurt in the second quarter. We're getting a 100-percent odds boost on DraftKings up to $25. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As I wrote above, the Giants haven't beaten the Cowboys when Dallas has played its starting quarterback since 2016. However, it's fair to look at all the dreadful coaches the Giants have had in that span. John Harbaugh is a much better coach than any of them. But it's his first game, and Matt Nagy is bound to sabotage a potential victory.

SATURDAY NOTES: Malik Nabers practiced fully all week, but is listed as questionable. I imagine that he plays, but will be limited to 25-30 snaps. This is another reason to be bullish on the Cowboys.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We're still waiting on Malik Nabers news, but I'll be on the Cowboys regardless.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Malik Nabers is active. I still like the Cowboys. The sharps were on that side at -2.5, but not at -3. The best line is -3 -108 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Cowboys -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Slight lean on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 63% (151,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 21 of the last 26 meetings.

John Harbaugh is 12-6 ATS in Week 1 games.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we're going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where tonight, the Kansas Chiefs take on the Denver Nuggets. Guys, I'm ready for a brand-new season, and I have to say that I've upped my research. Ever since Mother deemed that bobbleheads are the devil, I was forced into doing more research on other NFL teams. For example, I just learned that the Nuggets' quarterback is Drew Nix. I still thought it was John Elway, but now I've taken my broadcasting to another level. Also, I've come to understand that there are three new friends with us in the broadcasting booth. Emmitt, why don't you introduce them?

Emmitt: Thanks, Geronimo. I just camed back from the Naive American territory and in between stolening lots of money, I also taked three gerbil baby from the Naive American territory because their mother got debacled by a deer, and one gerbil baby go to my three children, Emmitt Snow Jr., Emmitt Smith IV, the III, the V, Sr., the VIII, Jr. Sr. XII the Smith, and Emma Snow Jr. But as it turned out, my wife very allergy to gerbil so I has to gived them away to you.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, I will gladly accept these new pet baby gerbils. Mother said nothing about them being the devil, so she'll let me keep them, right New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Yeah just plop them down on the grill and get to work.

Kevin Reilly: New Daddy, I would never grill these precious baby gerbils! What are their names, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Them's names after the all-timed great Cowboy quarterbacked, Troy Aiking, Tony Romeo, and Dak Presking.

Kevin Reilly: THEY'RE NAMED AFTER THE ENEMY COWBOYS QUARTERBACKS?! I'LL KILL THEM BY CHOKING THEM WITH MOTHER'S WORKOUT BANDS, WHICH I HAVE HERE AT THE READY FOR SOME REASON! GAAAAAHHHHHHHHH! TAKE THAT! AND THAT! AND THAT! HA! SLAIN!

Tollefson: Kevin, you remind me of myself so much, but you have to step up your game and treat female slaves this way instead of gerbils. I can show you how to dispose of their bodies if you're interested.

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I don't need to dispose of them because I have psychosis from learning they were named after Cowboys, so I was free to murder them at my leisure, even after doing a quick Google search on the most effective way to choke gerbils. Clarissa Thomas, you agree, right?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Geronimo. Yes, you didn't kill the gerbils even though you admitted to doing so and even did research on it. It was clearly the husband.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, I don't have a husband, but the closest thing is New Daddy, Jay Cutler. But he didn't do it. I did!

Mina Kimes: Why is everyone so quick to believe that Kevin Reilly killed those gerbils? First of all, it was clearly the husband because women can't be held accountable for anything, whether it's committing gerbil murder or calling Geno Smith a top-10 quarterback. Second, Kevin Reilly clearly has psychosis, so even if he killed the gerbils, it's not his fault. It's his husband's fault. And if you don't believe me, ask my simps, who agree with everything I say, including the Geno Smith bit.

Kevin Reilly: Mina, it sounds like you're implying that I'm a woman, which I can assure you, I am not. Mother says I cannot touch a woman until I've matured, so how can I possibly touch myself?

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT YOU'RE NOT A WOMAN?! WHAT'S WRONG WITH WOMEN THAT YOU CAN'T ADMIT TO BEING ONE?! HUH?! YOU ARE OPPRESSING WOMEN WHO HAVE TO FIGHT TOOTH AND NAIL FOR EVERYTHING EVEN THOUGH 98 PERCENT OF THE NEW WORK FORCE IS WOMEN, WHICH IS JUST ANOTHER SIGN OF MALE OPPRESSION BECAUSE IT WOULD BE 100 PERCENT IF IT WEREN'T FOR MEN!

Kevin Reilly: Wow, 98 percent is a lot. Maybe I should continue to pretend to be a woman so I can get away with anything. If I can kill three gerbils and admit to doing so without getting into trouble, imagine how many Cowboys fans I can slaughter. All I have to do is pretend that I have psychosis!

Charles Davis: That's right, Kevin, you can just pretend that you have psychosis, Kevin, even if it's not officially diagnosed, Kevin. Let's talk about some other mental disorders, Kevin. Let's begin with anxiety, Kevin. Next is bipolar disorder, Kevin. We can transition to transgenderism, Kevin. Let's have a fireside chat about Schizophrenia, Kevin. Don't forget panic disorder, Kevin. Why not talk about depression, Kevin? How about borderline personality disorder, Kevin? Thoughts on narcissistic personality disorder? Let's delve into anorexia, Kevin. Care to share about bulimia, Kevin? And last but not least, there's Kevin Reilly Disorder, Kevin, which is when a fat idiot who lives with his mom is too scared to talk to women, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: Yes, yes, give me all of those disorders! I can get away with anything. Maybe I'll even be able to touch a woman without Mother grounding me! We'll be back right after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There was little doubt that Patrick Mahomes would be able to return for Week 1. What we don't know is how effective Mahomes will be. I'd like to believe that Mahomes will play well, but that really hasn't been the case over the past two years, which is a little weird to say considering that he led his team to a Super Bowl appearance two years ago.

However, Mahomes has been one of the least-accurate quarterbacks in the NFL when targeting receivers 10-plus yards downfield over the past two seasons. He was even in the bottom three last year alongside J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr.

The matchup against the Broncos won't make things any easier. Denver has an elite pass rush, and Kansas City has liabilities on the offensive line, especially if tackle Josh Simmons can't play. Mahomes will feel tons of pressure in this game, and he doesn't exactly have the best receiver corps to bail him out.

What has changed is that the Chiefs have a potent backfield threat in Kenneth Walker. This hasn't been the case in a few years, so Denver's defense won't be able to fully focus on Mahomes, given that the reigning Super Bowl MVP will be able to pick up some decent yardage on the ground.

DENVER OFFENSE: Mahomes isn't the only quarterback returning from injury. Bo Nix will be playing as well after fracturing his ankle in the divisional round of the playoffs last year. Nix played one preseason game and looked decent in his return, albeit in a small sample size. This is obviously a good sign in this game, especially considering who his opponent is.

The Chiefs have a great defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo, but the talent simply isn't there. They lost their entire secondary this offseason, and it's not like they were that good against the pass to begin with. The culprit last year was the pass rush, which got no pressure from anyone outside of Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. The Broncos have a quality offensive line, so Nix should be protected well in this game.

The Chiefs are at least better against the run than the pass, so they should be able to hold up well against J.K. Dobbins. This could put a rusty Nix in some unfavorable situations, but it's unclear if Kansas City's pass rush will be able to take advantage of those opportunities.

RECAP: If this were a normal game, I'd be on the Broncos. They have the better team, and the Chiefs are an overrated squad. Their defense could be awful this year unless Spagnuolo pulls a rabbit out of his hat. The offensive line figures to struggle as well, and there's no telling if Mahomes will be 100 percent. At the very least, he may not scramble nearly as often.

However, this is not just any ordinary game. This is the season opener, and Sean Payton's teams have been miserable to begin the season dating back to 2013. Since that year, Payton is a truly remarkable 3-20 against the spread in Weeks 1 and 2. I don't know why, but Payton just doesn't prepare his teams well to begin the year.

Conversely, Andy Reid is excellent when given extra time to prepare. Reid is 7-4 against the spread in Week 1 with the Chiefs. Reid also has a great track record coming off a bye, so this tracks.

I wish I could bet the Chiefs more aggressively, but Mahomes' status isn't clear. He could just be a shell of his former self coming off a brutal injury so late in the season. However, I will still bet two or maybe three units on the Chiefs because of the dichotomy between the coaches and how they prepare for the season opener.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aside from the Bears, the Broncos are now getting the most action this week. Hopefully, the line drops and we get a much better number on the Chiefs.

SATURDAY NOTES: Chris Jones was downgraded in practice to a limited participant. We'll see if he can play. If not, the Chiefs will be more difficult to bet.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Chris Jones will play, but the Chiefs will be missing Josh Simmons. This isn't ideal, but it won't preclude me from betting the Chiefs. Teams can scheme around missing one lineman.

PROPS & SGP: FanDuel has a 30-percent boost for a wager made on this game, up to $25. We're going to take Courtland Sutton to be the leading receiver from +550 to +720. DraftKings has a no-sweat bet on an SGP, up to $100. We'll bet $50 on Bo Nix 17+ rushing yards, Courtland Sutton 4+ receptions, and Chiefs moneyline at +410 to win $205.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both the public and the sharps are on the Broncos, meaning the sportsbooks are going to sweat this one out because they have lots of money at risk. I'm going to side with the books, and I'll do so with the -2 -108 available at BetMGM.

MORE PROPS: Travis Kelce was the leading receiver for the Chiefs in both matchups last year. We have a 50-percent boost on DraftKings to take Kelce most receiving yards from +650 to +975.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Chiefs -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The Broncos are a big public dog.

Percentage of money on Denver: 77% (243,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 20 meetings, excluding when the Chiefs rested their starters.

Sean Payton is 3-20 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Patrick Mahomes is 106-32 SU, 71-65 ATS (57-51 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 6-2 ATS in the initial divisional matchup of the year as long as he's not favored by -7 or more.

Chiefs are 22-12 ATS in season openers at home since 1971.

Andy Reid is 7-4 ATS in Week 1 games with the Chiefs.

Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 87 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.