2025 NFL Picks – Week 19: Other Games
NFL Picks Week 19 – Early Games
NFL Picks Week 19 – Late Games
Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Line: Texans by 3.5. Total: 39.50.
Monday, Jan. 12, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Texans.
This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Poopsburgh, where the Poopsburgh Penguins take on the Houston Rockets. Guys, corporate told me that I’d finally cover the Pennsylvania team I always dreamed of covering, so I naturally thought we’d be deployed to Philadelphia, the greatest city known to mankind as my Philadelphia Eagles take on the San Francisco Giants, who are gay butt pirates, but because we’re not covering my Philadelphia Eagles, let’s discuss my new girlfriend, who responded to me in the Yellow Pages. I haven’t met her yet, but she says she already loves me because we’re soul mates and that she loves my soul.
Emmitt: Thanks, Saul. I must raise a suspicious to anybody who using the Yellow Page. Do the Yellow Page becomed Yellow for the same reason white snow becomed yellow snow when you go pee-pee on itselves? This why when I try to find the telephonic number of somebody I tries to call, I use White Page instead of Yellow Page because maybe somebody have White Page and then go pee-pee on itselves.
Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, that’s ridiculous. No one pees on random books, right New Daddy?
Jay Cutler: I dunno, I pee on your stuff all the time because it’s hilarious.
Kevin Reilly: Oh, so that’s why my pillow is wet all the time when I go to bed. I thought it was from night sweats I had from nightmares of my Philadelphia Eagles losing, but then I realize that this is stupid because my Philadelphia Eagles would never lose! Anyway, my girlfriend’s mother is sick, so my girlfriend asked me for some money. I told her that I already used my entire annual salary on Nick Foles bobbleheads but I could ask my friends for money to send to her. Tolly, can I borrow $5,000 to send to my girlfriend’s mother?
Tollefson: Kevin, I say this as a guy you recognize as your friend: No. This is a scam. Believe me, I’m the master of running scams. I scammed old people out of six figures, so no one is a better scam artist than me. And I don’t know why you’re so attached to this one lass anyway. Just go to a bar, find a woman, any woman, and then slip something into her drink. Then, she’s yours for life unless she cleans and cooks naked poorly, and then you can just bop her over the head with a shovel and bury her in the woods.
Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I don’t think Mother would allow me to go to the woods by myself because I could get eaten by a bear or get stung by a bee. Clarissa Thomas, do you think you could loan me $5,000 to send to my girlfriend so she can help her mother?
Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mother. I have breaking news to report for you. The 49ers will be starting their sixth-round pick, Brock Pigeon, for the first time in this game. Back to you, Mother.
Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, why did you call me your mother? Do you think I’m actually your mother? Is that how disinterested you are in hearing about my girlfriend? Won’t anyone give me $5,000 to send to my girlfriend so she can help her ill grandma? What about you, Minnow Klein?
Mina Kimes: Does anyone find this absolutely ridiculous? Kevin, why are you asking us if we can loan you money to help your girlfriend’s sick mother? I think we can all agree that the real reason why Kevin’s girlfriend’s mother is sick is because she’s oppressed by the patriarchy. If it weren’t for men, Kevin’s girlfriend’s mother would be in good health. And yet, she’s not even an Asian female NFL analyst, who are the sickest human beings on Earth because we’re all oppressed by the men in our industry. If your girlfriend were an Asian female NFL analyst, her mother would be dead already! What we need to do is make sure that Kevin’s girlfriend’s dad is sick instead of his mother!
Kevin Reilly: He’s sick, too, but she’s only asking $2,000 for him.
Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID KEVIN’S GIRLFRIEND’S DAD ONLY COMMAND $2,000 INSTEAD OF $5,000 FOR THE MOTHER BECAUSE HE THINKS HE’S BETTER THAN ALL WOMEN AND BELIEVES THAT HE DOESN’T NEED AS MUCH MONEY TO BE CURED!?
Kevin Reilly: Wait, sorry, I meant $20,000. Not $2,000.
Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID KEVIN’S GIRLFRIEND’S DAD COMMAND $20,000 INSTEAD OF $5,000 BECAUSE MEN LIKE TO OPPRESS WOMEN AND DEMAND FOR MORE MONEY NOT JUST IN WORK, BUT FOR MEDICAL CARE, TOO!?
Kevin Reilly: You know, my girlfriend says she watches our broadcast and said that this Sarah Spanish girl has a mental illness, but I didn’t know what she meant until now.
Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about mental illnesses, Kevin. Let’s discuss different types of mental illnesses, Kevin. We can begin with anxiety disorders, Kevin. Or its cousin, panic disorder, Kevin, or perhaps obsessive-compulsive disorder, Kevin. Now we’ll transition to depression, Kevin. Adjacently, there’s bipolar disorder, Kevin. What are your thoughts on eating disorders, Kevin? Care to share about personality disorders, Kevin? Do we dare delve into transgenderism, Kevin? Let’s debate about post-traumatic stress disorder, Kevin. We’ll now target psychotic disorders, Kevin, which includes schizophrenia, Kevin. And last but not least, Kevin, there’s Kevin Reilly Disorder, Kevin, which is the worst, Kevin.
Kevin Reilly: I’LL GIVE YOU A DISORDER, CHARLES DAVIS, WHICH INCLUDES BOPPING YOU ON THE HEAD WITH TOLLY’S SHOVEL AND THEN BURYING YOU IN THE WOODS IF MOTHER FINALLY SAYS IT’S OK TO GO TO THE WOODS ALONE! We’ll be back right after this!
HOUSTON OFFENSE: I wish I had known that the Texans weren’t going to take Week 18 seriously until the day of the game. It was announced Sunday morning that Nico Collins wouldn’t play. C.J. Stroud and the rest of the starters sat the entire second half. We nailed the Stroud under props, but at my cost of not winning any money in the final Supercontest mini-contest.
Stroud, Collins, and everyone else will obviously be back on the field versus the Steelers, and they’ll be rested. However, this won’t mean all that much if Houston’s offensive line can’t protect Stroud. The Texans have gotten better in pass protection during the second half of the season, but the tackles have a tall task ahead of them when it comes to blocking T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Pittsburgh’s other pass rushers. Watt returned last week, and while he played fewer snaps as usual, he was effective. He’ll be even healthier in his second game back from injury, so he and the other edge players will create some problems for Stroud.
It would help Stroud if he had a strong rushing attack to keep the pass rush honest. The problem is that Woody Marks, while more explosive than Nick Chubb, is not the difference maker someone like Derrick Henry is. The Steelers, ranked 20th against the run, clamped down on Henry in the second half of the Week 18 game. Granted, they sold out against the run, but they won’t have to dedicate as many resources to stopping Marks.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Watt’s return in Week 18 was colossal. DK Metcalf’s availability for this contest is similar in scope. Metcalf was sorely missed in the loss to the Browns. The Steelers obviously didn’t need him in the finale once Kyle Hamilton suffered an injury, but his presence will absolutely be required against Houston’s stalwart defense.
The Texans have some excellent cornerbacks, so they shouldn’t have much of a problem keeping Metcalf from having a huge game. Metcalf will at least be able to stretch the field, which will open things up for everyone else. For example, Pat Freiermuth and the other tight ends could do well, as Houston is only ranked in the middle of the pack at defending the position.
Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, will continue to target Kenneth Gainwell often. He won’t really have a choice. Houston’s pass rush is every bit as good as Pittsburgh’s, if not better, so Rodgers will be constantly under siege if he holds on to the ball too long. Rodgers will know this, so he’ll quickly dump off passes to Gainwell and his tight ends.
RECAP: The Texans are a better team than the Steelers, but I don’t think they’re worthy of being 3.5-point road favorites in this matchup. The Steelers have some ways to attack the Texans, whether it’s with their edge rush defensively, or via their tight ends offensively.
Besides, the Steelers often thrive in this scenario. Say what you want about Mike Tomlin, but he gets his team to play well when they’re home underdogs. Unless he’s battling a far superior opponent, Tomlin can win these sort of games, and the numbers speak for themselves. Tomlin is 68-39 against the spread as an underdog in his career, and he’s 10-2 against the spread as a home dog of more than three points. The Ravens and Texans are similar in overall team talent, and we just saw Pittsburgh defeat Baltimore despite not having Metcalf.
I think this will be a three-point game either way, so we’re getting the win with the Steelers either way. I like Pittsburgh a good deal at +3.5.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Steelers.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Texans 17
Steelers +3.5 (3 Units)
Under 39.5 (0 Units)
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Houston: 51% (19,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Texans.
Steelers +3.5 (3 Units)
Under 39.5 (0 Units)
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