2025 NFL Picks – Week 19: Bills at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s an exchange I had with an evil person who wants innocent people to be in prison:

I used to wonder how the Holocaust and other atrocities started, and how there were people who followed oppressive government rule without question, but I don’t wonder about that anymore because of interactions with these people.

On a lighter note, here’s an interaction I had with another beta male simp for Mina “Geno Smith is a top 10 quarterback” Kimes:

And finally, I struck a nerve with someone in what I thought was a very nice reply to Barack Obama:

I can’t believe this person was so rude to me. Here I was, congratulating our former president and his husband, and yet this scumbag has the audacity to call me a “sack of s**t.” Unbelievable.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: There are multiple reasons why handicapping this game is very difficult. The primary reason is Josh Allen’s health. Allen had a foot injury in Week 17 that prevented him from running against the Eagles. Allen obviously has great arm talent, but he’s still a diminished player when he can’t use his legs. We saw that in the loss to Philadelphia, where a stationary Allen missed a wide-open receiver on what would have been the decisive two-point conversion.

Allen rested last week – aside from the ceremonial snap he took to keep his consecutive starts streak going – so there’s a good chance that the time off will have helped him heal. We don’t know if Allen is still hampered by his troublesome foot, however. Allen could make good use of his legs in this game because the Jaguars are below average when it comes to dealing with mobile quarterbacks.

Allen will have to do most of the work because Jacksonville has the third-ranked rush defense since the midway point of the season. Allen could still have some success if he can’t run, given that he’ll be able to attack Jacksonville’s defense with his tight ends. The Jaguars have the ninth-worst defense when it comes to defending the position.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While the Jaguars struggle against tight ends, the biggest defensive liability in this game should continue to be Buffalo’s run defense. Unless Matt Milano is suddenly healthy after nursing a bothersome injury all year, the Jaguars should be able to run on the Bills, who are second-to-last when it comes to defending ground attacks. Only the Giants are worse in that regard.

With Travis Etienne gashing Buffalo’s defense, Trevor Lawrence will be able to benefit with short-yardage opportunities. This will be crucial against the Bills, who have great edge-rushing talent. Lawrence is well protected, however, so Lawrence will have a chance in rare long-yardage situations.

The reason Lawrence has been so much better in the second half of the season is that Jakobi Meyers has given him a reliable weapon. Meyers isn’t the most physically gifted receiver in the world, but he’s extremely dependable and doesn’t make mistakes. Lawrence has never had anyone like Meyers in his career, so this new weapon, plus improved coaching, can explain why Lawrence is playing the best football of his pro career.

RECAP: If you were to tell me that Allen is completely healthy, and he’ll be able to run all over the Jaguars, I would still have a tough time handicapping this game. I would ultimately pick the Bills to cover because I think they’re a bit better overall if Allen is 100 percent, but I’m sure I’d change my mind once or twice during the week. I’ve fallen in love with this Jaguars team down the stretch. We’ve made so much money betting them because people don’t understand how much better they are now than they were to start the season. Both Lawrence and the defense have made huge strides since the overtime battle against the Raiders right after Halloween.

However, we don’t know if Allen is completely healthy. Perhaps we’ll learn something from the injury report, but I’m not sure if that will reveal anything. If Allen is limited all week, I think we can safely make a medium-sized play on the Jaguars, but Allen could just as easily be full all week and still hampered by his foot injury because NFL teams largely aren’t held accountable for lying on the injury report.

Given that, I’m going to side with the Jaguars for zero units right now. I’ll keep you updated if anything changes throughout the week, of course.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -1.

Computer Model: Jaguars -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 64% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Jaguars are 72-116 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 20-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008. ???

Opening Line: Bills -1.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .

Week 19 NFL Pick: Jaguars 27, Bills 24

Jaguars +1.5 (0 Units)

Under 52.5 (0 Units)

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 64% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 72-116 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 20-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008. ???

Opening Line: Bills -1.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .