2025 NFL Picks – Week 19: Other Games
NFL Picks Week 19 – Early Games
NFL Picks Week 19 – Late Games
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 46.00.
Sunday, Jan. 11, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Wynter is Coming, where I discuss someone I met at a kids’ birthday party. She thought I was the funniest person in the history of the planet!
SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers handpicked their opponent. They had the option of trying to win to clinch the No. 6 seed, but they determined that battling the Jaguars would be too problematic for their injury-ravaged offensive line. The Jaguars destroyed the Chargers in a prior meeting this year, so you can understand the thought process behind this.
The Jaguars have the sixth-most quarterback pressures this year, but it’s not like the Patriots are slouches on this side of the ball. They’re a respectable 12th in quarterback pressures, so they’ll be able to get to Justin Herbert. The Chargers are playing with their fourth and fifth tackles, and then there’s Mekhi Becton, a guard who is so fat and out of shape that he needs breaks during the game. The Patriots were able to get Milton Williams back from injury last week, which will be huge for this matchup.
The Patriots also cover well on the back end, so even when Justin Herbert has time in the pocket, the Chargers won’t have a consistent offense. It must be noted that the Patriots are weaker to the run than the pass, so perhaps the Chargers can find something with Omarion Hampton. This, however, may not be possible because the Chargers don’t run block very well. They had the 11th-worst run blocking in the NFL this season.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Williams isn’t the only major player the Patriots welcomed back last week. Will Campbell also returned from injury. Campbell looked like he didn’t miss a beat with a terrific performance against the Dolphins.
I don’t need to tell you that Campbell’s presence against the Chargers is huge. The Chargers have some excellent edge rushers, including Khalil Mack, so missing a left tackle would be troublesome for a young quarterback making his first playoff start. Maye will be battling a defense that has surrendered the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, so he won’t be able to scramble as much as usual.
The Patriots won’t have too much success running the ball either. The Chargers were worse against the run to close out the season because Denzel Perryman was suspended, but Perryman will be available for this game. The Chargers have always been better versus the rush when Perryman has been on the field, so I wouldn’t expect Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson to have huge performances.
RECAP: There are three quarterbacks making their first playoff starts this season. There’s Bryce Young and Caleb Williams on Saturday, and we have Maye in this game.
Is there any significance to this? I’ll let you decide upon looking at this data. Here are the results of all first-time playoff quarterbacks, dating back to 2002, and I’m excluding instances where both quarterbacks are making their first playoff start:
Home Favorites:
Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU
Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Dak Prescott (-5), DAL, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jared Goff (-6), LAR, 2017: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Blake Bortles (-8), JAX, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Case Keenum (-5.5), MIN, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Deshaun Watson (-2), HOU, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Lamar Jackson (-3), BAL, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mitchell Trubisky (-6.5), CHI, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Patrick Mahomes (-4.5), KC, 2018: Win ATS, Win SU
Jimmy Garoppolo (-6.5), SF, 2019: Win ATS, Win SU
Caleb Williams (-1), CHI, 2025: ??? ATS, ??? SU
Drake Maye (-3.5), NE, 2025: ??? ATS, ??? SU
Home Underdogs:
Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Wentz (+2), PHI, 2019: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Taylor Heinicke (+10), WAS, 2020: Win ATS, Loss SU
C.J. Stroud (+2.5), HOU, 2023: Win ATS, Win SU
Bryce Young (+10), CAR, 2025: ??? ATS, ??? SU
Road Favorites:
David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU
Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU
Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Sam Darnold (-2), MIN, 2024, Loss ATS, Loss SU
Road Underdogs:
QB Falcons No. 7 (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU
Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU
Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU
Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU
Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Lindley (+6.5), ARZ, 2014: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Moore (+11), MIA,2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Connor Cook (+4), OAK, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Marcus Mariota (+8), TEN, 2017: Win ATS, Win SU
Tyrod Taylor (+8), BUF, 2017: Win ATS, Loss SU
Josh Allen (+3), BUF, 2019: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Tannehill (+4.5), TEN, 2019: Win ATS, Win SU
Baker Mayfield (+5.5), CLE, 2020: Win ATS, Win SU
Mac Jones (+4), NE, 2021: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Kyler Murray (+3.5), ARZ, 2021: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Skylar Thompson (+13.5), MIA, 2022: Win ATS, Loss SU
Daniel Jones (+3), NYG, 2022: Win ATS, Win SU
Tyler Huntley (+8.5), BAL, 2022: Win ATS, Loss SU
Tua Tagovailoa (+3.5), MIA, 2023, Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mason Rudolph (+10), PIT, 2023, Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jordan Love (+7.5), GB, 2023, Win ATS, Win SU
Bo Nix (+7.5), DEN, 2024, Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jayden Daniels (+3), WAS, 2024, Win ATS, Win SU
In summary:
Home favorites: 6-16 ATS, 9-13 SU
Home underdogs: 4-6 ATS, 3-7 SU
Road favorites: 1-3-1 ATS, 2-3 SU
Road underdogs: 13-15 ATS, 8-20 SU
Road Underdogs (7+): 5-7 ATS, 1-11 SU
Combined Record: 19-40-1 ATS, 19-41 SU
This is a grim projection for Maye, despite how great he’s been this year. Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Lamar Jackson all failed to cover as home favorites in their first playoff game as home favorites. Patrick Mahomes was able to do so, so perhaps Maye will be more like him. We’ll see.
It’s interesting that the straight-up record for these quarterbacks is much better than the ATS record when it comes to home favorites. This is an indication that Maye could win by three and fail to cover the -3.5.
That seems like the most likely result, anyway. The Patriots have feasted on so many bad teams this year. I don’t want to take anything away from them because they’ve dismantled most of their poor competition, but I’d like to point out that New England’s games against Group A and B teams this season have gone as such: win at Buffalo by 3, loss vs. Buffalo by 4, win at Baltimore by 4. It’s a small sample size, but all of these games are close, so I don’t see why the Patriots would reliably beat the Chargers by four or more points. They could, but given how great Herbert and the Chargers defense is, I’m willing to bet that this is a three-point game either way.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: None.
Decent action on the Patriots.
Percentage of money on New England: 67% (20,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Chargers 20
Chargers +3.5 (2 Units)
Under 46 (0 Units)
The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
Decent action on the Patriots.
Percentage of money on New England: 67% (20,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Chargers +3.5 (2 Units)
Under 46 (0 Units)
2025 NFL Picks – Week 19: Other Games
Comments on the 2025 NFL Season’s Games and Picks
Review Walt’s Past Record Picking Games
On the bottom half of our NFL Weekly Lander page is the history of picks Walt maintains. Walt’s Results
