Walt
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
2026 NFL Picks: 21-22-1 (-$1,075)
NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,0550)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Sept. 27, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 3 NFL Picks - Early Games
NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3 Late Games
Minnesota Vikings (2-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)
Line: Vikings by 1. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Sept. 27, 4:05 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.
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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The big news heading into this game is that Kyler Murray has cleared concussion protocol and will play. Carson Wentz hasn't been bad, but it's not like he has the upside that Murray possesses. Granted, Murray has a low floor as well, but he can at least scramble around and do dynamic things with his legs.
Murray, however, may not have to do much on the ground. The Buccaneers aren't getting any pressure on the quarterback. They have just 28 quarterback pressures through two games - Deshaun Watson did whatever he wanted last week - so Murray should be able to do whatever he wants behind his strong offensive line.
The Buccaneers also have some severe issues in their secondary, so they'll struggle to cover Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: As bad as Tampa Bay's defense has been, the offense has been even worse. Baker Mayfield gave away a potential victory in Week 1 against the Bengals by fumbling three times. Last week, Mayfield spent most of the afternoon sailing passes over his receivers' heads and making some poor decisions throughout the contest.
Mayfield got paid recently and appears to be mailing it in right now. He'll be in a world of hurt in this game, given how elite Minnesota's pass rush has been. The Vikings have 60 quarterback pressures on the year thus far, thanks in large part to Dallas Turner, who should be the front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year at the moment.
Mayfield could easily crumble under pressure and commit some turnovers. It appears as though he misses Mike Evans despite Emeka Egbuka's presence. Evans is not walking through that door, so there could be more struggles on the horizon for Mayfield.
RECAP: There's been some significant line movement in this game. The advance spread was Tampa Bay -1.5, yet the line went all the way up to Minnesota -2.5 before falling to -1.5. That's a four-point line swing. Granted, we're not going through any key numbers, but all of those percentages add up to something somewhat significant.
I'd like to take the value with the Buccaneers, but I just can't do it. NFC South teams typically perform poorly against non-divisional opponents, and Minnesota's defense is elite.
I'm picking the Vikings for office-pool purposes, but as far as betting is concerned, that's a different story. I'm not placing a wager on Minnesota because Tampa Bay is desperate at 0-2, while the Vikings are coming off two emotional victories over divisional rivals.
This could be a flat spot for the Vikings. I'm not so sure about that, but the potential is there for Minnesota to have a letdown of sorts, especially with its quarterback returning from injury.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I didn't mention is Tampa Bay's atrocious home record. You can look below in the trends section, but the Buccaneers seldom cover as hosts. So, if you're looking at the Buccaneers as an appealing home underdog, you might want to reconsider.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings have a completely clean injury report. Conversely, the Buccaneers are down two defenders: Ruben Bain and Josiah Trotter. Bain has been a non-factor thus far despite being a first-round pick. Trotter, however, has been terrific, so his presence will be sorely missed over the middle of the field.
Having said that, I've done a lot of thinking on this game, and I believe that the Buccaneers are worth a bet of at least three units. Despite all of their turnovers, they're very close to being 2-0, while the Vikings are very lucky to be 2-0 after being outgained by 190 and 50 yards in both of their first two games. This is an obvious letdown spot against a desperate 0-2 team. And something I forgot is that Murray is coming off a concussion, which is generally something that is very profitable to fade. Quarterbacks often struggle when returning from concussions, and Murray is overrated anyway.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If you missed it, I moved four units on the Buccaneers. I love them in this spot. Fingers crossed that Baker Mayfield doesn't give the game away again.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Truly pathetic football from superior teams in the 1 p.m. window, so maybe that'll mean that the Vikings will struggle as well. The sharps haven't touched this game. With inflated vigs on the -1.5s, the best line is +1 -108 at BetMGM.
The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Vikings could be flat after two divisional wins.
The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -2.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.
Computer Model: Vikings -2.
The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Vikings are getting public money.
Percentage of money on Minnesota: 61% (94,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
Buccaneers +1 -108 (4 Units) - BetMGM -- Incorrect; -$430
Over 42.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks Week 3 - Early Games
Comments on the 2026 NFL Season's Games and Picks
Review Walt's Past Record Picking Games
On the bottom half of our NFL Weekly Lander page is the history of picks Walt maintains. Walt's Results
