NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2026 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
2026 NFL Picks: 21-22-1 (-$1,075)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,0550)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 27, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 3 NFL Picks - Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

WEEK 2 RECAP: Heading into Monday night, we were in danger of having our worst week since Week 14 of 2024. All of our three-unit plays hit, but the three bets at four units and above were all losers despite every team we sided with holding a touchdown lead or more in the second half. For some reason, all three of our teams blew leads. Making matters worse, we got murdered in the props.

Fortunately, Monday was great. We hit another three-unit bet, and we also completed a Matthew Stafford ladder.

I'll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jets, 3 units (win): The Jets nearly blew their lead as well. The Packers looked like they were going to score a touchdown in overtime.

Patriots, 3 units (win): The Patriots didn't even play their best, and yet they still won easily.

Buccaneers, 4 units (loss): When the Buccaneers went up 16-6, it looked like they were going to slam the door on the Browns. Apparently not. Their defense was so horrific that they made Deshaun Watson look like a functional quarterback.

Tyler Shough ladder, 3 units (loss): This was the most frustrating loss of the early afternoon. Shough is a mobile quarterback, so one would think that he would run if he behind, especially considering that he scrambled four times in the first half. All we needed from him was six rushing yards in the second half amid a double-digit deficit, yet the only "runs" he had were quarterback sneaks. I truly think something like this wins nine out of 10 times.

Eagles, 5 units (loss): This game turned on the opening drive for the Eagles. They easily went down the field and entered the red zone. They were going to score at least three points, but Jalen Hurts basically threw a pick-six. Despite this, the Eagles went up 14-7 and looked like they'd have a good chance at covering, but their defense surrendered some big plays to Cam Ward of all quarterbacks.

Jaguars, 5 units (loss): The Jaguars had control of this game for three quarters. They led 13-6 at halftime and looked like they'd lose by a field goal at most. Instead, Trevor Lawrence kept trying to air the ball out to Brian Thomas Jr., who dropped a million passes. Meanwhile, the defense kept allowing Jaylen Waddle to get open for big gains. Liam Coen then committed an unsportsmanlike penalty to gift the Broncos the covering touchdown. This was very frustrating.

Trevor Lawrence ladder, 3 units (loss): A great bet you can make on a ladder is quarterback passing yards on an aggressive team where the game script could flip. When the Broncos tied the game in the second half, I thought this was a lock to hit because Lawrence would have to throw more than expected when we made this bet at halftime. Lawrence threw, but Thomas dropped everything in sight. What a f**king bum.

49ers, 3 units (win): Didn't have to sweat out this game, luckily!

Rams, 3 units (win): Jaxson Dart got hurt, but I think the Rams would have covered regardless.

By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks each week will be in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those who are disappointed by this, but we had no choice; otherwise, we'd have to close up shop, and there'd be no picks anyway. Because of declining ad rates as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results blocking new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we needed to pivot in another direction to keep the website alive. We're not asking for much - just 30 cents per day - so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won't see any ads. This website will be incredibly fast and won't crash at all as a result of any ads.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: We're beginning with the Falcons because news broke on who their quarterback is going to be. Cooper Rush started last week but was so bad that he got benched in favor of Jack Strand. Atlanta won't have to worry about that mess, as Michael Penix Jr. is back in action.

The Packers were able to generate good pressure from Lukas Van Ness last week, so that's something that could bother Penix. Sadly, Penix is the best of the terrible Atlanta quarterbacks and gives the Falcons the best chance of covering or perhaps even winning this game. If it were an injured Rush or Tagovailoa, however, one would think that the Green Bay defense would have an extreme advantage. This is why Penix's return is so significant.

I don't think the Packers can crash in and focus on the run like they did last week. They sold out against Breece Hall, and they'd utilize the same game plan against Bijan Robinson if Rush were starting. That changes with Penix under center because he can actually get the ball to Drake London and Kyle Pitts. This will obviously help Bijan Robinson.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Falcons should be able to pressure Jordan Love as well. I didn't think much of Atlanta's pass rush heading into the season, but the Falcons have generated 48 quarterback pressures through two games. By comparison, the Packers have only 38.

Granted, much of Atlanta's pass-rush production had to do with battling Pittsburgh's anemic offensive line, but it's not like the Packers can block either. Green Bay has a miserable front that should continue to be exposed in this game.

I suspect the Packers won't be able to run the ball with Josh Jacobs effectively suspended and the offensive line unable to block. Green Bay won't be able to establish any of its mediocre-at-best running backs against Atlanta's underrated run defense.

Love should be able to connect on some considerable gains to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, especially if A.J. Terrell is unavailable after getting banged up last week. However, the Packers will have some inconsistent possessions because of their poor blocking.

RECAP: I was going to utilize the same game plan with the Falcons as last week. I planned on fading Atlanta if either Rush or Tagovailoa was going to start. If it was Jack Strand, I said I wouldn't have an opinion on the game due to a lack of data, and if it was Penix, I said we would take the Falcons.

That's my thought process in this game as well, as the Packers are favored by too many points with Penix under center. Penix is not a great quarterback by any means, and he's not even above average. However, he's a big upgrade over Rush and his back spasms. Rush couldn't get the ball to London and Pitts. We know Penix can because we saw it last year.

I'm no fan of betting on a horrible team traveling on a short week, but I think the Falcons are the right side because of the line value. Also, it must be noted that the Packers are playing on a short week off overtime, but the extra session was a quick one, so I don't think it applies, especially with Green Bay being at home.

Our Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers will be missing some linemen, as Zach Bako-Bowale and Aaron Banks are out. Banks isn't very good, but Bako-Bowale is their best lineman. The sharps have recognized this. They've taken this line down to +4.5 in some places. I still like the Falcons, but happen to be less optimistic about their chances to cover because of the diminished line.

PROPS: FanDuel is giving us a 50-percent boost on this game, up to $25. We're going to bet Matthew Golden most receiving yards, taking it from +420 to +630.

FanDuel has a 7UP promo where if a team you bet on the moneyline goes up by seven, you win automatically. We're going to bet the Falcons +200 with this promo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps destroyed any sort of value we had with the Falcons. They've dropped the line to +4.5, with the best line being +4.5 +100 at BetMGM. I'm not betting on this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.

Computer Model: Packers -7.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 52% (238,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 62-52 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -7.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 60 degrees. Light wind.