NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2026 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2026): 7-7-2 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2026): 7-7-1 (+$3,195)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2026): 7-7 (-$1,945)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2026): 8-6 (-$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2026): 7-7 (-$1,175)
2026 NFL Picks: 63-65-5 (-$2,780)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 8, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 9 NFL Picks - Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

WEEK 7 RECAP: Our ATS picks in Week 8 were decent. Despite this, we still had a losing week. Why? Once again, the live bets crushed us.

I'll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Lions, 3 units (win): This one was stressful for a while because the Lions made several mistakes in Minnesota territory, but they eventually won and covered.

Jets, 3 units (loss): F**king Jets. The Jets were up nine at halftime despite allowing a kickoff return touchdown, but they couldn't stop the Raiders in the second half.

Braelon Allen ladder, 5 units (loss): The Jets are coached by idiots. You'd think they'd run the ball while up for most of the second half, especially with Braelon Allen having a career day in the opening half. Instead, they called just four runs. Rather than running the ball, they opted for Hail Marys the entire time. F**king Jets.

Cardinals, 4 units (win): The only bad thing about this was that if the Cowboys had won by 3-7 points, we would have not only won this bet, but we also would have won 11 units on our hedge parlay. That would have been amazing.

Colts, 4 units (loss): I thought the Colts would show some heart. They did not. They refused to tackle.

Titans, 3 units (win): Unlike the other team that traded a key player (Colts), the Titans showed heart and nearly won outright.

Chargers, 3 units (loss): The Chargers looked like they would cover when they were up 9-3 just prior to halftime, but the Rams woke up and dominated the final 32 minutes. I doubt I'll be betting the Chargers again anytime soon.

Justin Herbert passing ladder, 3 units (loss): Justin Herbert looked competent for a change in the first half. That completely changed in the second half.

Blake Corum rushing ladder, 3 units (loss): We've lost about $4,000 on ladders in Weeks 7 and 8. Yikes.

By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks each week will be in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those who are disappointed by this, but we had no choice; otherwise, we'd have to close up shop, and there'd be no picks anyway. Because of declining ad rates as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results blocking new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we needed to pivot in another direction to keep the website alive. We're not asking for much - just 30 cents per day - so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won't see any ads. This website will be incredibly fast and won't crash at all as a result of any ads.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: We begin with the Ravens because that's where the news is. Lamar Jackson is out with a thumb injury that could sideline him for the rest of the year. Tyler Huntley is also out, which means Joey Fagnano will make the start.

Fagnano, an undrafted rookie quarterback, had a nice completion to open his afternoon against Buffalo, but struggled for the rest of the game. The fact that Fagnano couldn't play well against one of the worst defenses in the NFL speaks volumes.

Now, to be fair, Fagnano hadn't taken any practice reps throughout the week, so he should be better prepared for this game. However, he'll be going up against a Jacksonville defense that is ranked very highly. The Jaguars are third in defensive EPA and eighth in pressure rate. They'll be able to rattle Fagnano and force him into some turnovers.

The one hope the Ravens have is to establish the run with Derrick Henry, but that doesn't seem likely. Given that Fagnano is so bad, the Jaguars don't have to respect the pass, and they can load the box against Henry. Jacksonville is second against the rush anyhow, so Henry doesn't have much of a chance.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence didn't have to do much last week, given how inept the Colts were. The Jaguars won in a rout despite Lawrence throwing only 14 passes.

It's highly unlikely that the Jaguars will have as much rushing success against the Ravens as they did this past Sunday, given that Baltimore is 10th against the run. Still, I don't think the Jaguars will be completely shut down on the ground, given how terrific Liam Coen's run concepts are.

Lawrence, however, will have to do more this week, and he should have some success in this matchup. Whereas the Jaguars are eighth in pressure rate, the Ravens are just 18th. They're also 16th versus the pass. Baltimore has some holes in its defense that could be exploited by Lawrence and all of his talented weapons.

RECAP: You know by now that I hate betting Thursday night games. These contests are often sluggish because teams simply can't recover on three days of rest. It's astonishing that Roger Goodell claims to care about player safety and yet makes teams battle each other every Thursday night. It'd be great if Thursday night games exclusively featured teams coming off byes, but Goodell really doesn't care if players get hurt.

This, however, is a rare spot where I will bet a Thursday night game just because I think that one team has such a distinct advantage over the other.

Fagnano will have more practice reps this week, but what sort of practices will the Ravens have? They have to prepare for this game on just three days of rest, so Fagnano won't have the appropriate time to get ready for such a tough opponent. We've seen some miraculous performances from putrid quarterbacks in Thursday games over the years like Nick Mullens and David Blough, but they didn't go up against a defense ranked in the top three.

I've tracked how backup quarterbacks have performed against top-12 defenses over the years, and they are just 24-37 against the spread over the past several seasons. If the Jaguars had a middling or worse defense, Fagnano might have a chance with a bit more practice time, but Jacksonville's defense is just too good and will clamp down on him and the rest of Baltimore's one-dimensional offense.

I won't go crazy with this game, given that it's a Thursday night affair, but the Jaguars are worth a wager of 2-3 units.

Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens may not have Nate Wiggins for this game, while the Jaguars could be without Bhayshul Tuten. The Ravens also won't have Jacoby Brissett, whom they will reportedly trade for this weekend. We're going to have one game of an injured Joey Figuiano to fade, so enjoy it while it lasts.

PICK CHANGE: I've decided not to bet this game. Everyone and their mom thinks the Jaguars are easy money, but at -10, that's a high number considering how good Baltimore's defense can be. Also, I'm not sure what to make of this, but I had a dream that there was a quarterback I didn't recognize who played for the Ravens and won this game outright. Except, he was on the Panthers and he was beating the Giants, but it occurred in this game. I once dreamt that Ryan Fox won the Canadian Open at 90/1, and I mentioned it on this website beforehand. That was a clearer dream than this one, but it's still bothering me.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: DraftKings has a 30-percent boost on this game. I'm also paying for the injury insurance because we have three players in this parlay. I'm posting it below.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nate Wiggins is out, while the Jaguars will have Bhayshul Tuten available even though he missed every practice this week. At any rate, maybe the sharps took note of my dreams because they bet the Ravens heavily at +10, +9.5, and +9. The best line is -8.5 -110 at MyBookie. MyBookie: Get $500 in No-Sweat Bets or $2,000 Matched Deposit

The Motivation. Edge: Ravens.

The Jaguars are breathing a sigh of relief that Lamar Jackson won't play.

The Spread. Edge: Ravens.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -2.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Tons of action on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 71% (186,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Jaguars are 75-119 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -9.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 68 degrees. Light wind.