NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)

NFL Picks (2014): 44-44-4 (-$35)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 13, 4:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

San Diego Chargers (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-4)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -6.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Seeing running backs get injured usually isn’t a good thing, but having Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown all go down has been a blessing in disguise for the Chargers, as it has allowed Branden Oliver to emerge. Oliver, described by Antonio Gates as a more powerful Darren Sproles, ran circles around a Jets’ defense that had been pretty stout against the run entering last week’s contest. If the Jets couldn’t contain him, it’s difficult to imagine Oakland having more success.

Meanwhile, Philip Rivers has to be the leading candidate for the MVP award right now, and there’s no reason to expect him to suffer any sort of setback in this game. He’ll continue to stay hot against an Oakland team with too many pedestrian players on its stop unit. The Raiders can get to the quarterback, thanks to Khalil Mack and Antonio Smith, but Rivers is pretty well protected. He should have no issues torching the dreadful players in Oakland’s secondary, especially with Oliver causing problems for the Raiders.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The public is finally beginning to catch on that the Chargers have a fantastic defense. They haven’t surrendered more than 24 points to anyone since last November, but a shutout against the Jets is sure to bring attention to the team. Even the guy with the fancy hair on NFL.com ranked San Diego No. 1 overall this week.

The Chargers are extremely dominant in coverage, thanks to Brandon Flowers. It’s still mind-boggling that the Chiefs let him go for nothing. Flowers is enjoying an All-Pro-caliber campaign. He, Eric Weddle and Jason Verrett make it extremely difficult for opposing quarterbacks to get anything downfield, so Derek Carr will have to resort to throwing nothing but short, ineffective passes.

Don’t expect much from the Raider running backs either. The Chargers thrive at stopping the rush, and it’s not like any of the Raider linemen, outside of Donald Penn, run block very well.

RECAP: This is a horrible spot for the Chargers. They’re coming off a perfect win. They’re being heavily praised by the media and are now big road favorites as a result. The Raiders, meanwhile, have had two weeks to hear about how bad they are in the wake of that blowout in London.

Having said that, I’m still taking San Diego. If this were Norv Turner’s Chargers, I’d give the Raiders a decent chance of covering, but Mike McCoy, who is 16-6 against the spread, always has his team prepared to play. As I wrote last week, McCoy is a beast of a head coach, and it’s going to take a lot for me to go against him on any given week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action on the Raiders, and I have no idea why. The Chargers have burned professional bettors the past few weeks, and that will likely be the case again. Betting against Mike McCoy is pretty stupid.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman’s replacement – once again, how can Millman just disappear completely for a week? – told Colin Cowherd that the sharps are on the Chargers. That’s completely inaccurate. There’s lots of professional money on the Raiders, while the public likes San Diego. However, as I’ve said, the sharps have lost lots of money on the Chargers recently, and I feel like they’re being stubborn.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
If the Chargers weren’t well-coached, I’d suspect that they’d be flat for this game with contests against the Chiefs and Broncos coming up.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

There’s tons of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 85% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings (Raiders 7-3 ATS last 10).

Mike McCoy is 16-6 ATS.

Raiders are 17-27 ATS in October since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Chargers 30, Raiders 16
Chargers -7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 31, Raiders 28

Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 55.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -3 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -4.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 799 remain. The Lions knocked the most people out last week, as 136 entries had them.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan had to feel incredibly frustrated following Sunday’s loss to the Giants. His team was up 20-10 in the middle of the third quarter, but he couldn’t do anything after that, as his offensive line was just overwhelmed by New York’s front. Johnathan Hankins caused problems in the interior, while Jason Pierre-Paul made Jake Matthews look like an undrafted free agent instead of a first-round left tackle. Ryan was constantly under siege, which would explain why he failed to score another point after that.

Ryan won’t have nearly as many issues in this contest. He’ll be at home, where he’s much more comfortable, and he’ll be battling a defense that doesn’t have much of a pass rush. There’s Lamarr Houston, but that’s about it. Willie Young and Stephen Paea have been solid, but they’re not the sort of difference-makers like the Giants possess. Ryan, as a consequence, will have more time in the pocket, and he’ll have success against a secondary sorely lacking in talent outside of Kyle Fuller. Safety Chris Conte suffered yet another concussion, so he’ll be out.

The one thing the Bears do well defensively is stop the run. Excluding the season opener, Chicago has permitted just 3.43 YPC to opposing runners this season, which would put them seventh overall. However, I don’t think this will preclude the Falcons from scoring early and often against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Speaking of horrible stop units, the Falcons possess one as well. Like the Bears, they don’t offer much of a pass rush. In fact, they’re even worse in terms of getting to the quarterback because they don’t have a Lamarr Houston. Chicago protects Jay Cutler well for the most part, so Cutler will have plenty of time to dissect Atlanta’s secondary.

The Bears will also be able to run the ball very effectively. Atlanta is a mediocre 22nd versus the rush (4.45 YPC), so Matt Forte figures to improve upon his mediocre YPC figure of 3.9. He’ll obviously be a big factor in the passing attack as well.

All of this sounds great. The Falcons don’t have much of a chance of stopping the Bears. Unfortunately for Chicago, the Bears have a good chance of stopping the Bears. This team makes so many horrible mistakes, even against putrid defenses like Carolina’s. It’s hard to imagine Chicago turning things around quickly by playing clean football.

RECAP: I like getting Ryan off a loss. He was coming off of one last week, but the difference is that he’ll be playing in the Georgia Dome this time, where he’s enjoyed so much success. However, I’m not going to bet the Falcons because the Bears are in a terrific spot as a road underdog coming off an away loss. Teams have thrived in this dynamic over the years, and it’s just too powerful to ignore.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears already had some major defensive issues, and now they’ll be without Lance Briggs, who is still stout versus the run. The Falcons appear to be the right side, but I’m not betting on them.

SUNDAY NOTES: I found it interesting that three of the five ESPN analysts picked the Bears even though they are underdogs. The Falcons should be able to rebound with Lance Briggs out.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 50% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Jay Cutler is 32-60 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Matt Ryan is 29-18 ATS at home.

Falcons are 18-5 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 23 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Bears 23
Falcons -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 55.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 27, Falcons 13

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Line: Seahawks by 8.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -12.5.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Emmitt escapes the island and meets up with Johnny Manziel, who provides him with some key information.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks scored just 27 points on Monday night, but it easily could’ve been 40-plus. Percy Harvin had three touchdowns called back because of penalties, two of which were horrific. The inept/crooked officials also flagged Seattle for countless other infractions that would’ve never been called in a normal football game. It was incredibly ridiculous.

The Cowboys better hope they receive the same preferrential treatment. They’ve performed well defensively against some disappointing/pedestrian offenses thus far, but I don’t see how they can possibly handle the Seahawks. They are atrocious against the run, ranking dead last against it in terms of YPC (5.86). Marshawn Lynch will bulldoze right through them, and it’s not like Dallas can completely focus on putting the clamps on him, given that Russell Wilson could easily run circles around them like he did against the Redskins.

Wilson will also torch Dallas’ inept secondary. The Cowboys have gotten better against the pass ever since Orlando Scandrick returned to displace the horrendous Morris Claiborne, but there are still way too many liabilities in Dallas’ defensive backfield, including J.J. Wilcox and Brandon Carr. Wilson will hit plenty of big plays to Harvin, and some of them will be touchdowns. Perhaps they’ll stand this time.

DALLAS OFFENSE: If you were surprised that the Cowboys had trouble putting up points against the Texans last week, you shouldn’t have been. Dallas had feasted on a trio of horrific defenses prior to battling Houston’s capable stop unit. The Titans, Rams and Saints – the Cowboys’ Week 2-4 opponents – are ranked 27th, 23rd and 31st in defensive efficiency, respectively. The Texans are a decent 10th, so they gave the Cowboys trouble for the most part. However, Tony Romo and Dez Bryant managed to come through though with some clutch plays.

Romo and Bryant will need to be even better this Sunday because they won’t have the luxury of DeMarco Murray bursting for big gains every time he touches the ball. The Texans’ one liability is stopping the rush, as they rank 27th against it in terms of YPC (4.79). The Seahawks, meanwhile, are first (2.86).

Romo will have to carry the offense with his receivers. This will be an issue, given that he’ll be up against the Legion of Boom. The Seahawks gave up a few big plays Monday night, and I expect Romo to hit Bryant for some long gains, but Dallas won’t have much success overall on this side of the ball.

RECAP: The Seahawks are the right side. The Cowboys are a phantom 4-1, and this spread is reflective of that. They are also coming off an emotional, overtime win, so they could be spent. Plus, don’t forget that Seattle will have its great fans making things difficult for the Dallas offense. If Romo thought that going to a silent snap count at home was tough, wait until he has to deal with the noise that the 12th Man brings.

This will be a two-unit wager for me. I don’t want to go higher on the Seahawks because there’s some serious backdoor potential here. This is a large spread, and I could see Romo posting plenty of garbage yardage and a meaningless score or two in the fourth quarter.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping this down to zero units. The Seahawks have some injuries with Max Unger out and Kam Chancellor questionable, and this spread hasn’t been adjusted accordingly. The Cowboys are terrific as large underdogs. I’m afraid they’ll a BS backdoor cover.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps were on the Cowboys earlier in the week, but there’s been some professional money on Seattle on Sunday. I still stand by dropping this selection to zero units.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Cowboys are coming off an emotional overtime victory against their in-state rival.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 57% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The underdog is 46-19 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 21-11 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

Seahawks are 27-10 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -8.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Seahawks 28, Cowboys 17
Seahawks -8.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (4-1)
Cowboys 30, Seahawks 23

Washington Redskins (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-1)
Line: Cardinals by 6.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -6 (Palmer or Stanton) or Pick (Thomas).
Sunday, Oct. 12, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is birthday shopping at the mall.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: There’s no spread on this game as of this writing because both Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton are questionable to play. Having either on the field will be extremely important based on what we saw Sunday. Logan Thomas did not appear to be a functional NFL quarterback, as he didn’t seem to understand how to handle a pass rush.

If Thomas has to start, that’ll spell major trouble for the Cardinals, as they have to defend against Brian Orakpo (though he has struggled), Ryan Kerrigan and Jason Hatcher. The Redskins sacked the mobile Russell Wilson on three occasions Monday night, so they’ll definitely be able to put an ample amount of heat on Arizona’s quarterback. The difference between Palmer/Stanton and Thomas is that the latter will completely wilt under the pressure.

The Cardinals won’t be able to establish any sort of rushing attack to take pressure away from Thomas either. The Redskins are seventh against the run in terms of YPC (3.44), so Andre Ellington won’t have much room on the ground. The Cardinals will have to come up with creative ways of getting the ball to him in space because that might be their only chance of moving the chains if Thomas gets the nod.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Bruce Arians was irate following the Denver loss, and it’s easy to see why he was so frustrated. His once-promising season is capsizing, as he’ll be without yet another key defender. The Cardinals have handled their other injuries well, but Calais Campbell being out could be too much for them to handle, as he’s one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL.

Campbell was the only Arizona player consistently getting pressure on the quarterback, so Kirk Cousins could easily have all day to throw. The Cardinals still have a tough secondary, but any decent signal-caller can have success versus a stout defensive backfield if he’s given ample time in the pocket. Cousins has the weaponry to thrive, and it’s sounding like he may also have Jordan Reed back from injury.

Campbell’s absence will also affect the team’s ability to stop the run. The Cardinals currently rank second against the rush (2.89), right behind Seattle, so Alfred Morris would be in for another rough outing under normal circumstances. However, Arizona won’t be as dominant against the rush with Campbell out, so Morris might be able to make things even easier for Cousins.

RECAP: I’m tentatively taking the Redskins, but check back when there’s a spread posted. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cardinals will have a competent quarterback under center, as Drew Stanton will get the nod. I don’t like Arizona in a roll as a favorite of more than three points, and strangely enough, it seems as though the Redskins have gained confidence by keeping last week’s Seattle game “close,” even though anyone with a clue knows the Seahawks would’ve won by 20-plus if it wasn’t for all those bogus penalties.

SUNDAY NOTES: Here’s the deal with this game: The sharps bet up Arizona when the spread was at -3/-3.5. The line rose all the way to -6.5, when the pros bet Washington at +6.5 and +6. Now, it’s settled at +5. Vegas will be praying for a non-middle.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Cardinals will be flat following their tough loss at Denver. The Redskins will be desperate for a win.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

A decent lean on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 73% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Cardinals 19, Redskins 17
Redskins +6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 30, Redskins 20

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -1.
Sunday, Oct. 12, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Giants.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Any unbiased observer who has carefully studied the Eagles knows that they are a phantom 4-1. They’re a couple of plays away from being 1-4 straight up and 0-5 against the spread. Their offense has ranked just 23rd in efficency, which is a far cry from where the public expected them to be this year.

The issue for the Eagles is that their offensive line is a mess. Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce being out of the lineup has been huge, as the opposition has won the battle in the trenches. Philadelphia has been lucky thus far to battle some teams that don’t have quality defensive line play – the Rams and Colts, especially – but the Giants don’t share that weakness. In fact, Jason Pierre-Paul and Johnathan Hankins are coming off brilliant performances against the Falcons, who have similar blocking problems. I don’t see why either lineman will slow down.

I think this game could easily resemble what happened in San Francisco. In that contest, the Eagles crossed midfield just twice. That’s because they were actually battling a legitimate defense. The Giants’ stop unit qualifies as one.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I’m sure Eli Manning feels Nick Foles’ pain. Manning has dealt with his share of blocking issues over recent seasons. However, the Giants appear to have shored their once-problematic offensive line. Manning has barely been touched the past three games as a consequence.

If Manning continues to have plenty of time in the pocket, he’ll be able to torch Philadelphia’s poor secondary. Neither of the Eagles’ starting cornerbacks can cover, and I don’t trust either Cary Williams or Bradley Fletcher to have much success versus a receiving corps that has been strengthened with the addition of 12th-overall pick Odell Beckham, who had a solid debut last week.

The Giants will be missing Rashad Jennings, and his absence will hurt a bit because he’s so good in the passing game. The one thing Philadelphia does well defensively is stop the run, so Andre Williams will be stymied.

RECAP: This game is priced incorrectly because the Giants are the better team. New York also has an edge because the visitor has thrived in this rivalry, as Philadelphia is 2-7 against the spread the previous nine times it has hosted the Giants. With that in mind, I like New York to cover for three units. If you’re interested in trends, here’s one that favors the Giants: Since 2000, small home favorites (1-5.5 points) in conference play have struggled immensely heading into a bye, owning an 18-48 spread record in that span.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As with the Packers-Dolphins game, the sharps have bet the underdog down, and many of the +3s are off the board. There’s still one available at Bovada, which I’m going to lock in.

SUNDAY NOTES: The pros continue to pound the Giants. I still really like them, and they’re one of my five Supercontest selections.

SUNDAY UPDATE: What an awful day. All of the squares cashed in with the Patriots covering amid horrible officiating, and we couldn’t even get a Miami cover because of a last-second touchdown. Cam Newton was suddenly healthy, making Cincinnati -7 a loser, and Steelers +2 was just a terrible pick. The Giants are the sharp play, though the pros have gotten torched today. Only the Raiders pulled through for them. I still like New York for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 55% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Road Team has won 10 of the last 14 meetings.

History: Eagles have won 9 the last 12 meetings.

Giants are 39-20 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 31-19 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Eagles are 10-27 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Eagles 20
Giants +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 27, Giants 0

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -3.
Monday, Oct. 13, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, complete morons like Ron Zappolo, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of St. Louis, where the Rams and 49ers will play each other. Guys, these are the last two teams to play the Eagles. I think the NFL is sending a message that the Eagles are the greatest team in the NFL. Otherwise, why would they have their previous two opponents face off against each other? Suck it Herm! My Eagles are great!

Emmitt: Manuel, I do not understand what the Eagle playing the Ram and the San Diego have to do with the Eagle being the bestest team in the national conference of football. And why you always have criticism on Herm… uhh… Herm… uhh… Johnson?

Reilly: Because Herm is an idiot, Emmitt! He must be taught that my Eagles are the best team in the NFL. If the producers didn’t have such a problem with it, I’d lock him in the dungeon I have under my house so he can join some of the other Cowboy fans I have chained up there.

Edwards: THAT’S NOT LEGAL! THAT’S UNLEGAL! BUT UNLEGAL ISN’T A WORD! HERM USED THE WRONG PREFIX! PREFIX IS THE PART BEFORE THE ACTUAL WORD! NOT THE ACTUAL WORD! NOT THE PART AFTER THE WORD! HERM WILL TRY TO USE THE RIGHT PREFIX NOW! GOTTA USE THE RIGHT PREFIX! GOTTA DO IT! HERE I GO! GOING TO TRY IT NOW! GOING TO TRY IT! IMLEGAL! NOPE, NOT IT EITHER! HERM WILL TRY ONE LAST TIME! ONE MORE SHOT FOR HERM! ONE MORE SHOT! ILLEGAL! HERM GOT IT RIGHT! HERM GOT IT CORRECT! ILLEGAL’S THE WORD! IT’S ILLEGAL TO KIDNAP! CAN’T DO IT! SHOULDN’T DO IT! YOU’LL GO TO JAIL IF YOU KIDNAP! YOU’LL GO TO PRISON IF YOU KIDNAP! JAIL AND PRISON! PRISON AND JAIL! BUT MAYBE PRISON OR JAIL! OR JAIL OR PRISON! WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JAIL AND PRISON!? HERM NEVER UNDERSTOOD THIS! CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN IT TO HERM!? CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN IT!? HERM NEEDS TO KNOW! HERM HAS TO KNOW! HERM WANTS TO FIND OUT! HERM NEEDS TO DISCOVER! HERM… uhh… HERM FORGOT WHAT HE NEEDS TO DISCOVER… umm…

Reilly: See what I mean? It would be best for all parties if I kidnapped Herm, but nooooo, the producers won’t let me, f***ing Eagle haters!

Fouts: Here’s the interesting thing about your plan, Kevin. You say you want to kidnap Herm Edwards, but doing so has nothing to do with kids or naps. The first part of that word, “kids,” means children, or individuals younger than 18 years old. A 17-year-old, for example, is a child. So is a 16-year-old, and an 8-year-old. The number after 17 though is 18, and you’re no longer a child at 18 even though you’ve probably gone through puberty far long beforehand! The second part, nap, means a short period of sleep. Sleep, of course, is when you temporarily lose consciousness. Kevin, did you know that humans need 6-8 hours of sleep each night? If you get less than six hours of sleep, you’re not getting enough, but if you get more than eight; 12, for example, you’re getting too much. Same goes for nine, 10 and 11!

Reilly: Thanks, Captain Obvious. Maybe I should kidnap you too for annoying me.

Millen: Kevin, I think you’re making a huge mistake. Kidnapping men and locking them in a dungeon sounds great in theory, but if you want to achieve your inner-most desires, you’ll try to court these gentlemen the proper way: Find a 100-percent USDA Man in a bar, whisper sweet nothings into his ear, rub his thigh and promise him a beautiful night of kielbasa-stuffing in the backside.

Tollefson: Wrong again, Millen. I have lots of hot women chained in my basement. They’re naked, of course, and I order them to cook and clean for me. There’s no need to waste time courting them. That’s just stupid.

Reilly: Why would I kidnap women unless they were Eagle haters!? Idiots, all of you! Might as well let Zappolo talk!

Zappolo: Thanks, Mike! Today’s game between the Harlem Globetrotters and the Washington Generals should be a doozy! Wilt Chamberlain is leading the Globtrotters against Michael Jordan and the Generals!

Reilly: This isn’t basketball, idiot! And Wilt Chamberlain is dead! That’s it, instead of kidnapping you idiots, I’m just going to kill all of you! We’ll be back after this!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have to be thrilled that they’re not facing the Rams’ defense of 2013. That unit, which posted countless sacks each week, would have a field day against San Francisco’s disappointing offensive line. With Chris Long out, however, St. Louis hasn’t nearly generated the same amount of heat. I thought the front would have more success against the Eagles’ poor blockers this past Sunday, but that didn’t turn out to be the case. The Rams only got an average amount of pressure on Nick Foles, so it’s fair to expect the same thing here.

Colin Kaepernick will be relieved. Kaepernick had a decent performance against the Chiefs last week despite being harassed frequently throughout the afternoon. He’ll have more time against the Rams, so he’ll be able to expose their pedestrian back seven. He’ll be even more effective if Vernon Davis plays, but the stud tight end’s status is unknown as of this writing.

Of course, Kaepernick may not have to do much. The Rams are sub par in terms of stopping the rush, ranking 20th against it in terms of YPC. Frank Gore will have a huge night, which will make life even easier for Kaepernick.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams’ can’t pin their disappointing record on Sam Bradford’s absence. Austin Davis has performed well above expectations, completing 67.8 percent of his passes while maintaining a 7.9 YPA and a 6:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Having said that, it’s fair to expect Davis to regress a bit in this contest.

Davis has enjoyed some solid outings against pretty poor NFL defenses. He has battled the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Eagles thus far, and all three of those teams own pedestrian secondaries that haven’t been able to cover anyone this year. The 49ers obviously don’t belong in that group, as they’re just two weeks removed from completely shutting down Nick Foles and Chip Kelly’s attack.

Davis won’t have any help from his backfield either. San Francisco is ranked ninth against ground attacks, so neither Zac Stacy nor Benny Cunningham will have much running room. This will lead to plenty of long-yardage situations for Davis, so that could cause more turnovers. The Rams had plenty of those in Philadelphia.

RECAP: This is a lot like the Seahawks-Redskins Monday night game. There’s tons of action on the visitor, who will be benefiting from Circadian rhythms. Chad Millman will announce that all of the sharps are on the home dog. And yet, the road favorite should be able to cover amid shady officiating.

I mentioned this earlier, but home divisional underdogs have struggled in night games. The 49ers are the better team, and they’re appropriately priced, much like the Seahawks were. However, I can’t bet on them because the Clete Blakeman Rule is in effect. This rule states that bettors should stay away from highly backed teams on Sunday and Monday night. This is because the public will be pounding that side to either double up or win back its losses, and shady shenanigans could transpire as a consequence.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not going to change my pick. Fade me if you wish, but I’m not confident either way. There are too many conflicting things going on. One thing I should note is that Vegas lost millions yesterday, so they may have made sure St. Louis covers tonight because the public is pounding San Francisco. If you like the Rams, you can get them at +4.5 -105 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

Will the 49ers look past the Rams with the Broncos coming up?

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The public is pounding the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 86% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

History: 49ers have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.

49ers are 36-18 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Jeff Fisher is 41-28 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 21
49ers -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 31, Rams 17

Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games
Indianapolis�at�Houston, New England�at�Buffalo, Carolina�at�Cincinnati, Pittsburgh�at�Cleveland, Jacksonville�at�Tennessee, Green Bay�at�Miami, Detroit�at�Minnesota, Denver�at�NY Jets, Baltimore�at�Tampa Bay

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Bills +8.5, Giants +8.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220

NFL Picks - Nov. 17

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)