NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)

NFL Picks (2015): 59-71-6 (-$3,580)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 9, 5:10 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games







Cleveland Browns (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-0)
Line: Bengals by 11. Total: 46.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -12.
Thursday, Nov 5, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

WEEK 8 RECAP: I’ve been writing that I couldn’t imagine what a winning week would feel like. Well, it feels great. The sun is brighter, the birds are singing sweeter, and the hate mailers aren’t being extreme dicks. Just regular dicks.

I went 5-8-1 in Week 8, but for +$520. I hit my top play with the Chargers +4.5, though some guy who bets fake money who e-mails me all the time was trying to tell me that Baltimore was the right side. OK, then.

I had the wrong sides for sure with the Dolphins and Falcons, but Steelers, not so much. I feel like Pittsburgh would’ve covered had Le’Veon Bell not gotten injured. The Steelers led before he got knocked out, and they couldn’t do anything offensively without him. Thus, Miami and Atlanta are the only multi-unit selections I regret.

Perhaps my Week 8 results were fluky, but then again, I’ve fundamentally changed the way I handicap. I’ve stopped looking at trends as much, and I now focus on the matchups. I re-read my 2005 picks, back when I was hitting 55 percent against the spread routinely, and I was having great success because I was looking at the matchups first, then glancing at spots and trends. I don’t know how I got so derailed by trend betting, but I’m glad many of you pointed it out to me. I don’t know if I’ll be winning or not going forward, but if I lose, I’ll at least be smart about it.

WEEK 9 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve been discussing overreaction spreads, line movements of two or more against the Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread that weren’t impacted by injuries. They were 7-11-2 ATS in Weeks 2-6, but 35-22 ATS in 2014. Here were the overreaction spreads from Week 7:

Before Week 7 After Week 7
Colts +3.5 Colts +5.5
49ers +5 49ers +7.5
Falcons -9 Falcons -7

Another loser. I thought the advance line movements would do better this week, but apparently not. It’s now 7-13-1 against he spread. Even though there aren’t any overreaction line movements this week (at least not yet), I’ll continue to keep track of it, but it almost seems kind of pointless now.

NEW CBA PART III: I’ve been discussing how different NFL handicapping has been in the New CBA Era, where the worst teams are even worse now. I had some spare time Friday afternoon and divided the teams into tiers. My Tier 1 group, the best of the best, is comprised of the Patriots, Bengals, Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos and Packers. My Tier 5 group, the worst squads in the league, is comprised of the Lions, Jaguars, 49ers, Texans, Buccaneers and Titans.

Tier 5 teams have battled Tier 1 opponents eight times this year. Do you want to guess how many times they’ve covered in those tries?

ZERO.

This may seem logical. Sure, the best teams cover against the worst teams. Why wouldn’t they? Well, they wouldn’t because they didn’t in the Realignment Era.

You can even look at some of the worst NFL teams between 2002 and 2010 to find evidence of this. For example, the 0-16 Lions from 2008 covered against the Panthers, who went 12-4 that season. Or, how about the 2007 Dolphins, who went 1-15? Not only did they cover against the 18-1 Patriots, but they also beat the spread against the Giants, who defeated New England in the Super Bowl that year! That definitely would not happen now.

I can go on and on listing examples, but it all changed when the new CBA was signed in 2011. With less practice time, horrible teams simply can’t improve very much, so as a result, they don’t have a chance against elite opponents, even in the greatest of spots. I should have picked up on this sooner, but I’ll be using this to my advantage going forward.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton didn’t have his best game against the Steelers. He tossed a couple of poor interceptions and misplaced some routine balls that he should’ve completed. Had it not been for Le’Veon Bell’s injury, Pittsburgh probably would’ve prevailed, and the media would now be talking about how Dalton once again struggled in a big game.

However, Dalton will be able to rebound Thursday night. Not only isn’t this an important contest, but the Browns will also be missing a couple of defensive backs. Joe Haden is in concussion protocol, so there’s no way he’ll be cleared by kickoff on a short week. Safety Donte Whitner, who is also concussed, won’t be able to suit up either. Haden actually hasn’t played well this year, but Whitner will sorely be missed in coverage. Dalton should have a great game against this skeleton-crew secondary.

The Bengals will also be able to run the ball well. The Browns have one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL, so Jeremy Hill might just have the breakout performance that his fanasy owners have been pining for this whole time.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns aren’t particularly healthy on this side of the ball either. Josh McCown is dealing with a rib injury, and he’s already been ruled out. Johnny Manziel will get the nod, which could be trouble. Remember how the Bengals dominated Manziel last year in my horrible Pick of the Month? It’ll be the same this time.

The Bengals have a great pass rush, while Cleveland’s offensive line has surrendered more sacks in the NFL, save for the Seahawks. Cincinnati will smother Manziel, who doesn’t have much time to prepare for this opponent; not that he’d be studying film anyway. After all, there is alcohol to consume, $20s to roll and women to (allegedly) assault.

The Browns have immense issues running the ball as well. Mike Pettine is pretty clueless when it comes to his running back rotation, so these wasted carries by Robert Turbin aren’t doing anything. The Bengals will be begging for those Turbin touches.

RECAP: This has blowout written all over it. The better team has dominated on Thursday night this year, and Manziel on a short work week sounds like a disaster. On top of that, Cleveland’s secondary is in shambles right now, so I don’t know how it stops the high-powered Cincinnati offense from scoring.

The one concern I have with the Bengals right now is that they are coming off an emotional victory against the Steelers, but I don’t think it’ll matter much, given the personnel disparity. I also don’t like that we lost some line value – it was -10 earlier in the week – but I’m comfortable betting two units on the host. I’d lock this is now, by the way, as I don’t see this spread dropping anytime soon.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, this spread has shot up. It’s now -13.5 in most places, though there are some -13s lingering around. If you weren’t able to lock in -10/-10.5/-11 earlier, I would still take the Bengals, but for less. Perhaps a unit. Cincinnati should be able to win this easily, and the sharps agree with that, as some of them have contributed to betting this number up.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Slight lean on the host.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 64% (70,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • History: Bengals have won 15 of the last 21 meetings (home team has won 5 of last 7).
  • Bengals are 14-5 ATS at home since 2013.
  • Bengals are 24-38 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Bengals are 6-12 ATS after playing the Steelers.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-12 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 9 NFL Pick: Bengals 34, Browns 10
    Bengals -11 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
    Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Survivor Pick (4-4) – NFL Survivor Pick Advice
    Bengals 31, Browns 10






    Oakland Raiders (4-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)
    Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Roethlisberger).
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -3.
    Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Raiders.

    VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 21-20-1 against the spread heading into Week 8. How’d they do this past weekend? Take a look:

  • Packers -3 – Loss
  • Jets -2 – Loss
  • Cardinals -4.5 – Cover
  • Seahawks -6 – Loss
  • Patriots -8 – Cover
  • Vikings -1.5 – Cover

  • The books were killed in Week 5, but they rebounded quite nicely the past three weekends. The Cardinals were their only major loss in Week 8.

    Here are the six top bets in Week 9, as of Wednesday afternoon (24-23-1 ATS this year):

  • Falcons -7
  • Broncos -5
  • Giants -2.5
  • Packers -2.5
  • Patriots -14
  • Chargers -4

  • It’s insane how much money is coming in on Atlanta, Denver and New York. At least one of those teams won’t cover, probably two.

    Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers’ Super Bowl chances went down the drain last week when Le’Veon Bell tore his MCL. Bell isn’t just a terrific running back; he’s so crucial to this team’s success because of what he does on third down as a receiver and a pass protector. That latter trait is extremely important with Maurkice Pouncey and Kelvin Beachum both injured.

    I don’t trust the Steelers to block very well in this contest, which could be problematic against a defensive front seven comprised of Khalil Mack and Aldon Smith. The Raiders will pressure Ben Roethlisberger frequently, and Roethlisberger won’t be able to do anything if he appears to be as banged up as he was last week. Roethlisberger clearly wasn’t himself, and it might take him a while to get right.

    The Steelers will have to establish DeAngelo Williams with their passing offense very questionable. That could be a problem, as Oakland has a top-10 ground defense that just completely shut down Chris Ivory. Williams has proven to be one of the best backup running backs in the NFL this season, but he’ll have a difficult time in this matchup.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: This side of the ball features two units that have been better than I expected them to be. Beginning with Derek Carr, he’s been terrific in his second campaign despite his new system. Amari Cooper has helped immensely, as has a stalwart offensive line that seldom allows pressures. The Raiders have given up just 10 sacks in seven games, which is extremely important in a season in which poor offensive line play has been so prevalent.

    Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s pass rush has improved tremendously. I didn’t expect much from this unit, but James Harrison has been terrific, as has Stephon Tuitt in addition to the usual suspects like Cameron Heyward. Even Jarvis Jones hasn’t been terrible. However, I’m not sure the Steelers will be able to pressure Carr behind his prolific offensive line. That means Carr will be able to torch a secondary that still has some issues.

    The Steelers will at least be able to stop the run. They’ve been excellent in that regard this season, limiting all but two opponents to fewer than 75 rushing yards. Latavius Murray won’t get much on the ground, but Oakland’s aerial attack should be able to work.

    RECAP: A team that can dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball will usually come out victorious, so perhaps the Raiders will be 5-3 by the time this contest is over. Their offensive line will keep Carr safe, while their defensive front will push around Pittsburgh’s injury-ravaged blocking unit. Oakland is equal with Pittsburgh; if not better, so this spread confuses me. Why are the Steelers favored by more than a field goal?

    This isn’t the best spot for the Raiders, as teams coming off victories as home underdogs don’t have the best covering track record, and understandably so. However, the Steelers were dealt an emotional loss at the hands of Cincinnati, and they are now significantly worse without Bell. I have to think the Raiders cover this spread. Unfortunately, we’re not getting the appropriate line value, as this was +6 on Sunday night. A spreaqd of +4 should still be good though, and I’m willing to risk a unit on Oakland. If this were a better spot for the Raiders, I’d go much higher on them, but this doesn’t seem like a great week to take them.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a public and sharp lean on the Steelers. I still like the Raiders. There’s a chance this could hit +6 by kickoff, so I’d wait to submit my bet.

    SUNDAY NOTES: This spread shot up to -6.5 early on Sunday. Some sharps pounced on that, but most professionals were all over Pittsburgh, which explained the line movement. I’m more than happy to take the Raiders at +6.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Steelers sustained an emotional loss to the Bengals, but the Raiders are getting a ton of hype right now.


    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    Slight lean on the host.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 62% (33,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Raiders are 10-24 ATS after a win since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -7.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 9 NFL Pick: Raiders 27, Steelers 24
    Raiders +6 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
    Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Steelers 38, Raiders 35






    Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at New York Jets (4-3)
    Line: Jets by 7.5. Total: 42.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Jets -8.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -9.
    Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Jets.

    HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail this week, despite being in the black finally. Here’s the first batch:



    All I’ve done was pick the Raiders every single week. I’m the last person any Raider fans should be criticizing!

    Here are some interesting ones:



    I even think a three-legged chicken using one foot has actually handicapped better than me this year.

    Here were people calling me out for using the new CBA as an excuse, when that’s not what I was doing at all:



    Seriously, ONLY Friday nights. And it’s not really that bad!

    Oh, and Jorge Mendelez, who called me a fraud a couple of weeks ago on Facebook and then proceeded to block me, is back!



    NEW YORK OFFENSE: There’s no line posted as of this writing because Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith are both questionable. Fitzpatrick has a thumb injury that will need surgery at some point, while Smith just sucks at life. It’s anyone’s guess who could be under center this Sunday. Bryce Petty may even get the nod.

    This would be a major concern for the Jets, given that they are on a two-game losing streak, but they’re not playing a real football team this week, so everything will be OK. The Jaguars only do two things well, one of which is rushing the passer, but New York has one of the better offensive lines in the NFL – as long as Nick Mangold is in the lineup. It sounded like Mangold was close to playing last week, so he might be able to suit up. If so, that’ll be huge.

    The Jaguars also stop the run effectively, but if Mangold is on the field, the Jets should get enough push to open things up for Chris Ivory. Even if they don’t, whichever quarterback plays can torch Jacksonville’s anemic secondary. I don’t even care if it’s Petty, and he doesn’t have an injured Brandon Marshall at his disposal; that’s how bad the Jaguars’ defensive backs are. It does sound like Marshall will play though, so that’s good news.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars are inept on this side of the ball because they can’t pass protect whatsoever. The Jets can’t get to the quarterback with just four players, so something has to give. Then again, we may not find out because New York blitzes so much. Bortles can’t deal with blitzes, so this is looking like a disaster waiting to happen.

    Bortles has had some success piling up junk yardage to Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, but at least one will be erased by the Jets’ secondary. Darrelle Revis will smother one of the Allens – probably Robinson – which will limit Bortles’ options. Julius Thomas should do well though, as New York is just average when it comes to dealing with tight ends.

    The best aspect of the Jets’ defense is shutting down the run. Save for the Broncos, no one does it better. T.J. Yeldon won’t be doing much, which will just put more pressure on Bortles.

    RECAP: I’m definitely picking the Jets, but the unit count is to be determined. I don’t like that New York has a Thursday night game coming up, but the team won’t be looking ahead if it’s dealing with an injury at quarterback. Teams with backup signal-callers playing for the first time tend to perform at a high level, so I think that could push New York over the top of the terrible Jaguars, as far as the spread is concerned.

    LINE POSTED: I said on the podcast that I was so 50-50 on this game that Nick Mangold’s status would determine which team I would place zero units on. Mangold is listed as probable, so that’s a great sign for New York. The Jets are obviously the far better team in this matchup, but I don’t like them in this spot because they play Thursday night. Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick needs surgery on his thumb, so counting on him is pretty ridiculous. On the other hand, the Jaguars are absolutely terrible, and I can’t possibly wager on them unless they’re getting substantial points against another horrible team.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Not much has changed in 24 hours. I’m 51-49 on this game, and probably would be 49-51 if Mangold were out. There’s been no sharp action on either side.

    SUNDAY NOTES: Some sharp (shrap?) action has dropped this to +7.5. I have no interest in betting this game.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    The Jets battle the Bills on Thursday night.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    A slight lean on the host.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 63% (21,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Jaguars are 24-51 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Jets -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: .


    Week 9 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Jaguars 13
    Jets -7.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Jets 28, Jaguars 23






    St. Louis Rams (4-3) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
    Line: Vikings by 1. Total: 40.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -3.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -4.5.
    Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.

    If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Think Adrian Peterson will be motivated right now? Peterson must be hearing about how the “best running back in the NFL” is coming to town this week. Todd Gurley is amazing, and he probably is the best runner in the league, but Peterson will be going all out to show that he’s still the king.

    Peterson has enjoyed a solid season, but despite the added incentive, the matchup on paper says that it’ll be difficult for him to produce in this contest, given that the Rams haven’t surrendered more than 56 rushing yards to an opponent since Week 4. However, St. Louis battled some sketchy running backs since – an injured Eddie Lacy, Isaiah Crowell/Robert Turbin, Mike Davis/Kendall Gaskins – so the team hasn’t really been tested in more than a month. The Rams surrendered 114 yards to Arizona (Chris Johnson) and 182 yards to Washington (Alfred Morris, Matt Jones), and Peterson is better than all of those players.

    What the Rams will really do well is put pressure on Teddy Bridgewater. Their pass rush is ridiculous, and Bridgewater doesn’t have the best blocking at his disposal. What he has, however, is Stefon Diggs, who has done a great job of opening this offense. Diggs is so difficult to cover because of his precise route-running, so I don’t see anyone in the Rams’ secondary sticking with him, though Janoris Jenkins is performing on a very high level right now.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams have been so much different on this side of the ball ever since Gurley became a full-time player. This team couldn’t move the chains against defenses like Washington and Pittsburgh, yet Gurley has changed that. If he stays healthy throughout his career, he’ll go down as one of the greatest running backs of all time, and that’s not just my opinion; NFL teams told us this prior to the 2015 NFL Draft. Had he not torn his knee, he would’ve been chosen right after the two quarterbacks, at No. 3 to Jacksonville,

    The Vikings will present Gurley with a challenge. The numbers say they can’t stop the rush, and I actually wrote this last week, but if a fluky long run by Ronnie Hillman is erased, Minnesota would be No. 12 against the run. However, that may not be good enough. Gurley is just that great. I think he stands a good chance of eclipsing the 100-yard barrier yet again.

    This will open things up for Nick Foles, but only just a bit. Foles is still an inaccurate quarterback, and his receivers have a habit of dropping passes. I’m sure Tavon Austin will do some nifty things, but Minnesota, overall, will clamp down on this aspect of St. Louis’ scoring attack. The Vikings’ pass rush is great, and will give Foles some trouble, especially if Sharrif Floyd returns to the lineup this week.

    RECAP: The Vikings are the better team, yet they’re favored by less than a field goal, which doesn’t make much sense to me. I actually have them listed as 4.5-point favorites in this particular matchup. I’ve been on them for most of the season, ranking them as a top-10 team throughout, yet they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve. People think the Rams are better, which is just ridiculous. They’ve been impressive lately, but only against the Browns and 49ers at home. The Vikings are a major step up in class.

    I like Minnesota to cover here. This won’t be a big play because there’s a chance the team could be a bit flat off a last-second victory at Chicago, but I have to believe that it will be quite aware that the result of this contest could have major wild-card implications. Plus, as mentioned, Peterson is going to be incredibly motivated to show up Gurley.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Want to know why this line keeps dropping? The professionals are betting the Rams. However, before you pound the Rams, keep in mind that the sharps have been wrong about the Vikings quite often this year. I still like Minnesota, the better team, for two units.

    SUNDAY NOTES: The Rams are dealing with so many injuries. Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Rob Havenstein and T.J. McDonald are all out. Their pass rush is the reason why they’re so good, and it won’t be the same without Quinn. Meanwhile, Havenstein’s absence will hurt the blocking. I know the sharps have dropped this number, but it’s worth noting that Pinnacle has +1 +110 on the board and is begging for St. Louis action. With all of that in mind, I’m raising this to three units.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    The Vikings are coming off an emotional win against the Bears. Not sure if they’ll be flat against the Rams or not.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 52% (23,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Jeff Fisher is 49-34 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Rams are 29-43 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -3.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: .


    Week 9 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Rams 16
    Vikings -1 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
    Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Vikings 21, Rams 18






    Miami Dolphins (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-4)
    Line: Bills by 3. Total: 44.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bills -2.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -3.
    Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: None.

    I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

    Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

    1. I thought Pierre Garcon suing FanDuel this week was interesting, and it needs to be discussed. Garcon is an idiot, and here’s why:

    First, he has no claim. Per the great Darren Rovell, “Names when tied to stats aren’t subject to right of publicity. Well established.” Second, Garcon made money off FanDuel when he promoted it on his Twitter account last year:



    Derp, Pierre. Derp. The judge hearing this should just pick up his gavel and bop Garcon on the head for wasting everyone’s time.

    Because Garcon has no chance of winning this lawsuit, let’s come up with other things he can sue once he loses this claim:

    – The rain because it made Garcon wet when walking taking out the trash the one evening his man servant took the night off.

    – Doors because Garcon has to exert energy opening them, which makes him depressed.

    – His own skin because it hurt that one time he got a paper cut when he had to open an envelope when his man servant was unavailable.

    – His man servant for taking off too many nights.

    2. Speaking of daily fantasy, I like that all of the networks are incorporating this into their pre-game shows. Of course, they are doing this because FanDuel and Draft Kings pays them, but that’s fine. I’m all for capitalism, and you should be too; otherwise, gtfo #murica.

    My problem with this, however, is incomplete analysis. I feel like CBS is the worst offender on Thursday night. Deion Sanders and Bill Cowher often choose one player to start, and Sanders often says something like, “Prime gonna choose the best player, because Prime only roll with the best players.”

    That’s great and all – top-notch analysis – but couldn’t Sanders and Cowher put an entire lineup together? What’s the point of picking just one player? Why can’t they both assemble entire lineups each week, and then we can compare how they do throughout the year? And because there’s a salary cap in DFS, I imagine Sanders will quickly learn that the “Prime only roll with the best players” strategy is impossible most of the time.

    3. The other big news was that ESPN announced that 300 people would be laid off and that Grantland would be shut down. This was not a surprise at all; in fact, I wrote in this space two months ago that ESPN was leaking oil and having some serious financial problems.

    ESPN, in typical ESPN-type fashion, fired the wrong people. The company continued to lose quality personnel and continued to keep horrible people on like Jason Whitlock, the moronic Skip Bayless, and renowned racist and sexist Stephen A. Smith. It should be no surprise that ESPN has been in the red, as they’ve degraded from a respectable network to a corporation comprised of trolls, imbeciles and douche bags.

    As for Grantland, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t thrilled with the news. Grantland was a good Web site and all, but I’m happy whenever a competitor goes down. And it’s not like most of the people there are losing their jobs, since they still have contracts.

    I am confused by this, however. Grantland couldn’t have been that expensive to maintain; otherwise, it was never a good business model. I have to believe that it was, so why couldn’t ESPN keep it afloat? It’s just more incompetence by John Skipper, who can’t seem to do anything right.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins sustained two huge blows against the Patriots, one on each side of the ball. Here, Ja’Wuan James was lost in the first quarter with a toe injury that will sideline him 4-6 weeks. This is a huge deal, as James was Miami’s second-best lineman this year behind Mike Pouncey. The team had no chance to move the chains after he was lost; Ryan Tannehill took five sacks as a consequence.

    The Bills have the personnel to take advantage of James’ absence, but I don’t know if they will. That’s because one of their more prominent players, Mario Williams, has played like absolute garbage this year. Perhaps if Williams spent more energy playing hard than complaining to the media, he’d be enjoying a better season. Nevertheless, he and Kyle Williams have both been big disappointments this year, and as a result, Buffalo hasn’t put much pressure on the quarterback. Thus, despite James’ absence, Tannehill could have more time in the pocket than he did at New England.

    Stopping the run has also been an issue for Buffalo. The team has given up 94-plus rushing yards to four of its previous five opponents. Perhaps a week off will help fix that – the Bills have the players to be better in this regard, after all – but there appears to be some serious turmoil there that could allow Lamar Miller to rebound off a disappointing outing.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: The big blow that the Dolphins sustained on defense was Cameron Wake’s torn Achilles. The pass rush was roaring in the opening half against the Patriots, but they couldn’t generate any heat once Wake was lost. I expect more of the same from them in this contest.

    Tyrod Taylor will have more time in the pocket, which is a nice way to come back from an injury. He should be able to hook up with Sammy Watkins early and often, as the Dolphins have some serious holes in their secondary.

    The Bills should also be able to run the ball. Miami is ranked in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending the rush, and it didn’t seem to have an answer for either LeGarrette Blount or Dion Lewis on Thursday night. I like LeSean McCoy’s chances here, and Taylor should be able to pick up some yardage on the ground as well.

    RECAP: I love the Dolphins this week for a number of reasons. First of all, they suffered a humiliating loss at New England, but they’ve had longer than usual to stew around and think about what happened. I expect them to rebound and perform like they did in the two weeks prior to battling the Patriots. They won’t be the inferior squad this time, as these two teams are equal.

    Second, motivation is clearly on Miami’s side. The Bills have a Thursday night game against the Jets coming up, so they’ll be looking ahead, as most favorites do prior to playing in just four days. The Dolphins, meanwhile, were blown out by Buffalo in Week 3. They’ll be seeking revenge.

    Third, the Dolphins have a great track record as road underdogs. They’re 19-4 against the spread as short road dogs since 2008, which is just remarkable. Underdogs period in their games have been phenomenal.

    And finally, the Bills are coming off a bye. Yes, this is a negative. Rex Ryan is just 1-5 ATS following a bye throughout his coaching career, so I can’t see his team performing well at all.

    Five units on the Dolphins, and I want to lock this in now. I’m seeing some +3 -120s pop up. It’s still +3 -115 at 5Dimes and +3 -110 at Bovada.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been professional action both ways. The Dolphins remain my top selection, and I’m even more confident in them now that it’s been reported that Sammy Watkins will have limited snaps.

    SUNDAY NOTES: Ugh, I screwed up here. I locked this in at +3, but the spread is now four. The professionals jumped on the Bills on Sunday morning for some reason. I still love the Dolphins, but I’m frustrated that I’m not getting the best number.


    The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
    The Bills have a Thursday game against the Jets coming up.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 52% (20,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • History: Bills have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Underdog is 62-33 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 95 games.
  • Dolphins are 19-4 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.
  • Bills are 27-15 ATS in November home games the previous 42 contests.
  • True home teams are 21-14 ATS in the last 35 Bills games.
  • Rex Ryan is 1-5 ATS off a bye.
  • Opening Line: Bills -3.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: .


    Week 9 NFL Pick: Dolphins 26, Bills 20
    Dolphins +3 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
    Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bills 33, Dolphins 17




    Tennessee Titans (1-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)
    Line: Saints by 6.5. Total: 50.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Mariota).
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -9.5.
    Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Saints.

    As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

    Random College Football Notes:

    1. I suppose I have to lead off with the Duke-Miami debaclation, right? In case you’ve been living under a rock, or you were accidentally eaten by Rosie O’Donnell, you’re well aware of what happened in the Duke-Miami game. If you missed it, the Blue Devils were set to win, but the Hurricanes prevailed on the final play, which featured eight laterals. Of course, a player was down, illegal blocks were made, and some idiot from the Miami sideline ran onto the field as the play was going on. There was a 10-minute review, yet the officiating crew didn’t overturn the play. YouTube this if you somehow haven’t caught it.

    I pretty much agree with the consensus opinion on this. The ACC, which suspended the officials, should give Duke the victory because it screwed up. The argument was that this was the final play of the game, and Miami unjustly won, so Duke should be rewarded the victory. This would also help the conference itself, as a better bowl for Duke would mean more revenue for the ACC. There’s literally no reason not to strip Miami of the victory and give it to Duke.

    It doesn’t sound like that’s going to happen, however, as the ACC is run by incompetent buffoons who’ve watched numerous teams flee from their decaying conference. If I’m David Cutcliffe, head coach of the Blue Devils, I’d march onto Miami’s campus and challenge the Hurricanes’ interim head coach to a duel. If he accepts, I’d say that I will select my champion, and I’d pick the guy who played Bronn from Game of Thrones to fight for me. If the Miami coach declines, I’d slit his throat with my blade, send his head back to ACC headquarters and just commandeer the victory myself. I really don’t see the downside to this strategy.

    2. Congratulations to J.T. Barrett, for being the dumbest person in America last week. Barrett just reclaimed the starting quarterback position at Ohio State from Cardale Jones, so what did he do? He was cited for a DUI this past weekend!

    As opposed to studying film and making sure he’d hold on to the starting job for good, Barrett foolishly drove drunk, and he’ll be suspended for this upcoming Minnesota contest as a result. So, what if Jones dominates the Gophers, scoring five touchdowns in the process? There’s no chance Urban Meyer will turn back to Barrett, which makes Barrett’s joyride so much worse.

    In honor of this, I have to issue my PSA that I note every single time a professional athlete is involved in a DUI: Hey, stupid sports stars, you have money and entourages. There’s absolutely no reason you should be driving, even if you’re sober. Either hire a driver or have one of your boys drive. Don’t be dumb. Don’t risk DUIs. Either give someone cash or a hot chick in exchange for driving you everywhere. It’s simple. Don’t be a moron.

    3. On a completely random note that has to do with other sports, I found the following tweet amusing:

    Last night the median age of the viewers for NBA’s Opening Night doubleheader on TNT was 36.0, for Game 1 of the World Series 52.7

    So, only fossilized people are watching baseball? Makes sense. Baseball is so damn boring; I don’t know how anyone can possibly watch it. Even the World Series is a snooze fest. My dad echoed this sentiment recently:

    “I love watching baseball. If I’m tired, I can put it on and fall asleep right away.”

    My dad is 62, so I guess he fits the normal audience for baseball fans. I’m not quite there yet, and as a 33-year-old, I don’t need naps in the evening at this point, but perhaps I’ll become a baseball “fan” in 19 years.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: How can Drew Brees top throwing seven touchdown passes? How about another seven touchdowns? It’s never been done before, and while the odds are against that happening, it could certainly occur again, just based solely on the competition.

    The Titans are pretty brutal against aerial attacks, ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of YPA surrendered. Their passing yardage numbers aren’t too bad, but only because they’re always behind, so their opponents haven’t needed to throw very much. Their safety play has been atrocious, however, so I don’t see how they’re going to defend the deep ball in this matchup, especially since Brees seems like he’s healthy again.

    Of course, Brees can just turn around and hand the ball off to Mark Ingram and expect great success. The Titans’ ground defense is equally abysmal, as it has surrendered 100-plus rushing yards to nearly every opponent this year. Mark Ingram has been awesome thus far, and he’s set for another dominant performance.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans haven’t done anything on this side of the ball the past few weeks, but only because they’ve either had an injured Marcus Mariota or an inept Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. It sounds as if Mariota will be returning this week, but will he be 100 percent? That’s a big unknown.

    If Mariota is completely healthy, or close, he could have a solid game against the Saints. We just saw what Eli Manning did to this secondary. Mariota obviously isn’t the passer that Manning is – at least not yet – but it doesn’t take much to beat New Orleans’ poor batch of defensive backs. Brandon Browner has been especially brutal. He needs to start re-familiarizing himself with the CFL because he’ll be headed back there soon.

    Then again, Mariota at half-strength could be disastrous. The Saints don’t have the worst pass rush, so they could apply pressure on him and force him into some mistakes. He won’t have the luxury of leaning on a strong rushing attack, so he could struggle a bit if he’s not over his injury.

    RECAP: Sigh… another game in which the spread is off the board. A line of Saints -7 -120 popped up on CRIS, but I don’t know how legitimate that is. It seems short; I would’ve guessed the Saints would be -9 at least.

    I will say that I’ll probably on New Orleans. I don’t know how Tennessee’s awful secondary is going to stop Brees. On the other side, Mariota may not be completely healthy. I may place some units on the host, so check back later and follow me @walterfootball for updates.

    LINE POSTED: I’m going to pick the Saints for two units. Their horrible defense bothers me and will keep me from betting heavily on them, as a back-door cover is in play. However, the Titans are so discombobulated right now after firing Ken Whisenhunt. It’s not like Whisenhunt was a good coach, or anything, but teams have a horrible history when firing a coach on a non-bye week. I can’t see the Titans preparing very well against a New Orleans squad is on fire right now. Brees looks completely healthy, so he’ll be able to torch Tennessee’s putrid secondary.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: As with the Jets-Jaguars game, nothing has changed in 24 hours. The pros haven’t chosen a side at all.

    SUNDAY NOTES: It’s crazy that this spread has moved through seven, which means that the books are liable for a middle if this game ends with a touchdown margin. The sharps moved the number that much. The sharps are smarter than I am, but I have to question the wisdom of betting on a team that fired its coach on a non-bye week.


    The Psychology. Edge: Saints.
    The Titans fired their head coach and can’t possibly prepare for this game.


    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    A good chunk of the money on the Saints.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 72% (7,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Saints are 36-20 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.
  • Drew Brees is 37-25 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Opening Line: Saints -7.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 9 NFL Pick: Saints 38, Titans 24
    Saints -6.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
    Over 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Titans 34, Saints 28




    Washington Redskins (3-4) at New England Patriots (7-0)
    Line: Patriots by 13.5. Total: 52.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -12.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -12.
    Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.

    If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

    I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

    This week, I have a new Spam Mail in which some person told me he was robbed on vacations in Manila. How could I possibly help!? Check out the link.

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Despite the Patriots’ 36-7 victory on Thursday night, the pass protection continues to be a major concern. They had problems protecting Tom Brady until Cameron Wake tore up his Achilles in third quarter. Miami couldn’t do anything after that – it seemed like the team was so devastated that it stopped trying – so Brady was able to light up the Dolphin defense.

    Poor pass protection will continue to hinder New England going forward – but perhaps not in this contest. The team should just be able to trample the Redskins with LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. Washington’s ground defense struggled in the few weeks going into the bye, so unless coordinator Joe Barry found a way to fix things during the week off, Blount and Lewis will have big games.

    Then, of course, there’s the Redskins’ secondary. Washington can’t stop the pass whatsoever, so Brady, who will constantly have the luxury of being in short-yardage situations, will have another one of his brilliant statistical performances, as he and Bill Belichick once again run up the score for no good reason.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I usually save random trends until the end, but I’ll provide one here. In the regular season, Belichick is 15-8 against the spread coming off nine or more days of rest. That makes sense, doesn’t it? Belichick, despite his shady tactics, is the best coach in the NFL. If he has extra days to game plan, he will come up with something to crush the opposition. He did so versus the Bills and Cowboys already this season, and the Redskins will be next.

    Belichick is the master of taking away the best aspect of the opposing team’s offense, and that would be Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. The Patriots were able to clamp down on Chris Ivory and Lamar Miller, so they’ll have similar success against Jones and Morris.

    This means Kirk Cousins will be forced to throw early and often. Despite the risk of Cousins e-mailing me in all caps saying, “YOU LIKE THAT!?” I have to believe that he’ll struggle against a secondary that has shockingly performed extremely well this season.

    RECAP: This spread is a bit inflated – I think it should be -12 – and the Patriots seldom perform well as large favorites at home. So, I’m picking the Redskins, right?

    Well, it goes back to what I wrote earlier about Belichick. The man is an evil genius who has a great covering rate when having extra time to prepare. The Patriots should have a very easy time against Washington, and coming off a pseudo-bye week will only help. No units, however, as I could easily see Cousins back-dooring at the end.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Big injury for the Redskins: Nose tackle Terrance Knighton is out. He’s a big-time run-stuffer for the team, and he’ll sorely be missed. I’m sure Bill Belichick will take notice and capitalize on this opportunity. The Patriots, on extra rest, appear to be the right side, but a back-door cover is dangerous territory at -14.

    SUNDAY NOTES: People are making a big deal of Jamie Collins being out, but what about Knighton and all of the players in the Washington secondary? That said, this is a coin flip in terms of the spread.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    The public is on the Patriots once again.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 84% (33,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Tom Brady is 182-59 as a starter (137-99 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 24-30 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (13-23 ATS since November 2007).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -13.5.
  • Opening Total: 52.
  • Weather: .


    Week 9 NFL Pick: Patriots 45, Redskins 27
    Patriots -13.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 52 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Patriots 27, Redskins 10




    Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Carolina Panthers (7-0)
    Line: Packers by 3. Total: 46.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -3.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.
    Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Panthers.

    Video of the Week: If you’re a straight man reading this, you’ve probably pursued some hot chick that you’ve never had a chance with. You might even be doing it right now. If so, this video might make you feel better:



    Here’s a thought: If you are pining over some broad out of your league, maybe the way to actually get her is to stab a stake through her heart. Just a theory.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s so bizarre that Aaron Rodgers was limited to 77 passing yards on Sunday night. I get that it was against the top defense in the NFL, but we’ve seen other quarterbacks have some success moving the chains on Denver, and we’re talking about Rodgers here, the best quarterback in the NFL. With tons of pressure in his face, and his receivers blanketed, he simply couldn’t do anything.

    Could the same thing happen against Carolina? I don’t see why not. The Panthers apply tons of presure on the quaterback, as Andrew Luck just discovered, and Green Bay hasn’t been able to pass protect very well since the San Francisco game. I don’t know what happened to the two tackles, but both are completely inept. Meanwhile, it appears as though Jordy Nelson’s absence has finally caught up to Rodgers, as an injured Randall Cobb and a mediocre James Jones aren’t getting separation – and I dont see why they would versus Josh Norman and Carolina’s brilliant secondary.

    One possible solution for the Packers is establishing Eddie Lacy. The Broncos’ top run defense shut Lacy down, but the Panthers are just in the middle of the pack when it comes to containing opposing running backs, so Lacy could get going, which will make life slightly easier for Rodgers.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: With Rodgers’ problems being so prevalent, no one is discussing how bad Green Bay’s defense was Sunday night. The team allowed a decrepit Peyton Manning to sort of look like his old self, which had to set off major red flags for the coaching staff. I know Sam Shields and a couple of other players exited the game, but Manning has looked terrible against some of the weaker defenses in the NFL this season, including Kansas City and Detroit.

    Then again, this is nothing new for the Packers. They allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 503 yards prior to the bye, and the Rams even had success moving the chains the week before, but bogged down in the red zone because of Nick Foles’ ineptitude. With that in mind, I don’t give Green Bay much of a chance of stopping Cam Newton’s aerial attack. Newton did well passing the ball Monday night when the rain died down, and he would’ve had a much better night than his numbers indicate if it wasn’t for all of the dropped passes.

    Having said that, Green Bay’s main concern is Carolina’s ground attack. Jonathan Stewart has been sharp following the bye once again, and he should continue his strong running against a defense that somehow revived the morbid C.J. Anderson. The Packers are just 22nd against the rush in terms of YPC, and it can only get worse.

    RECAP: I love the Panthers, but I’m scared to place a big bet on them. They seem to match up extremely well versus the Packers, who are reeling right now. Their offensive line won’t be able to pass protect versus Carolina; their receivers won’t be getting open at all; and Stewart figures to run all over them. You could argue Carolina is the better team, but even if these squads are equal, that would still make the Panthers a three-point favorite; not a 2.5-point home dog. This spread makes no sense whatsoever.

    So, why am I scared? Because betting large against Rodgers is generally not a good idea, especially off a loss; he’s 18-5 ATS following a defeat. However, I think this is a special circumstance, and it seems like the Panthers are the right side. I’m willing to wager three units on them. If I wasn’t so scared of Rodgers, this would be Pick of the Month territory.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m surprised that the sharps haven’t dropped this spread. Perhaps they will Sunday morning. I’ll lock it in now at +3.

    SUNDAY NOTES: Here’s a locked-in spread I got right. The professionals have moved this to +2. You can still get +3 -115 on Bovada.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Packers will be looking to redeem themselves off a blowout loss, but this is a big statement game for the Panthers. No edge.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    No surprise where the money is going.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 73% (30,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 63-37 ATS since 2009 (9-5 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
  • Aaron Rodgers is 25-20 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 18-5 ATS after a loss (just 9-4 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
  • Mike McCarthy is 12-6 ATS after a loss.
  • Opening Line: Packers -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: .


    Week 9 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Packers 24
    Panthers +3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
    Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Panthers 37, Packers 29



    Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games
    New York Giants at Tampa Bay, Atlanta at San Francisco, Denver at Indianapolis, Philadelphia at Dallas, Chicago at San Diego




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games



    2025 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    Fantasy Football Rankings - May 9


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
    2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
    2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
    2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
    2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
    2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
    2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
    2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
    2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
    2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
    2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
    2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
    2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
    2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
    2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
    2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
    Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2015 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2016 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2017 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2018 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2019 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2020 Season:
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    2021 Season:
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    2022 Season:
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    2023 Season:
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