NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)

NFL Picks (2015): 59-71-6 (-$3,580)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 9, 5:10 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games

Atlanta Falcons (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-6)
Line: Falcons by 7.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -3.
Sunday, Nov 8, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I’ve had the Falcons on my Overrated List for the past few weeks now because they just haven’t looked right. They’ve barely beaten bad teams prior to this past Sunday, and then they went on to suffer an embarrassing home loss against the Buccaneers. Atlanta has been sloppy with the football, and it showed versus Tampa. Though the Falcons were the better team, four turnovers did them in.

I’d like to say that Atlanta has a great matchup in this contest, but that was the case against the Buccaneers. If the Falcons cut out the sloppy turnovers and take care of business in the red zone, they’ll win this game easily. The 49ers have a poor defense that can’t do anything well; they’re especially horrible versus the pass, so that obviously favors Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. San Francisco’s secondary is a train wreck.

The 49ers can’t get any pressure on the quarterback either, while the run defense is only about average. They allowed a big run to Todd Gurley last week, and Devonta Freeman could have similar success. Freeman has been unstoppable ever since taking over as the starter, so he should have another solid outing.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have benched Colin Kaepernick into Blaine Gabbert. Oh, how far they’ve fallen. Gabbert is absolute trash, but I think this is the right move for the time being. Back a long time ago in Minnesota, Daunte Culpepper was struggling and was benched temporarily in favor of Todd Bouman. Culpepper just needed to get his mind right, and it worked. Culpepper went on to have a terrific 2004 season. Perhaps the same could work for Kaepernick.

Unlike those Vikings, however, the 49ers don’t have any sort of talent. Bouman had Randy Moss to throw to, while Gabbert will have… umm… Torrey Smith? That’s not good. The offensive line sucks as well, so the Atlanta pass rush, which ranks dead last in sacks, could even have success getting to Gabbert, who will undoubtedly close his eyes when he releases the ball.

The 49ers might have a chance if they had Carlos Hyde, but he’s out. So is Reggie Bush and Mike Davis, but neither are good players. Jarryd Hayne, meanwhile, was released accidentally because of a fax machine error. Good grief. The Falcons, who are decent versus the rush, won’t have any sort of problem against the likes of Shaun Draughn and Kendall Gaskins.

RECAP: The 49ers are an abomination. Although I like temporarily benching Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco is complete garbage and doesn’t warrant any sort of wager.

Having said that, this spread is absurd. Falcons by seven on the road? What have they done lately to warrant being favored by so much? Was it their close victories against the Redskins and Titans that were so impressive? Or was it their loss to the Buccaneers? Atlanta is playing like crap, so it shouldn’t be favored by this much. I think the 49ers have a decent chance of covering, as the Falcons will find some way to shoot themselves in the foot, as they’ve done so often lately. However, as I mentioned, I won’t be betting on San Francisco anytime soon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen so much that you can now get +7.5 -115 at Bovada. Ridiculous. The Falcons are playing so bad right now that they don’t deserve to be laying this many points on the road. They could always snap out of their funk here, but I don’t really see it happening.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s so much money on the 49ers. The 80-20 rule is in effect… but yeah, not betting on Blaine Gabbert.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The Falcons have disappointed lately, but people are still taking them over the terrible 49ers.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 86% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 14-11 ATS as a road favorite (9-8 ATS outdoors).

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Falcons 19, 49ers 13
49ers +7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 17, Falcons 16

New York Giants (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
Line: Giants by 1.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Giants -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -5.
Sunday, Nov 8, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Giants.

Survivor Update: We had 2,653 people enter, and had 2,282 still alive after Week 1. And then, Week 2 happened. The Colts, Saints, Ravens and Dolphins murdered almost everyone, and as a consequence, there were only 164 players remaining. We’re now down to 24 now, as we lost 12 players last week, thanks to the Falcons crapping the bed against the Buccaneers.

If you’re still alive, make sure you get your WalterFootball.com 2015 NFL Survivor Pool pick in.

Oh, and, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Earlier in my picks, I wrote that Drew Brees wouldn’t slow down after his seven-touchdown output against the Giants. Rather, he would continue on torching the opposition, as Tennessee didn’t present much of a challenge. The same can be said for Eli Manning. He fired six scores versus New Orleans, but shouldn’t get tripped up this week, as the Buccaneers have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Tampa’s cornerback situation is abysmal, so it’ll have no answers for Odell Beckham Jr., who is finally healthy again. Beckham hobbled through a hamstring injury that limited him for a couple of games, and Manning struggled as a consequence because none of his other receivers could get separation. However, that’s no longer the case.

What the Buccaneers actually do well on this side of the ball is stop the run; they actually rank ninth in terms of YPC. However, that won’t matter much to the Giants, as they haven’t moved the chains well on the ground against anyone all year. Manning has constantly operated without a rushing attack complementing him, so it’s inconsequential if Rashad Jennings is bottled up yet again.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers lost the yardage battle against the Falcons on Sunday by a wide margin, but that’s only because some of their drives didn’t have to be very long as a result of all of Atlanta’s turnovers. Their offense was pretty effective when it needed to be, and it seems like that should carry over into this contest.

We’ve all seen how porous the Giants’ defense can be. They absolutely suck at defending the pass, as Brees nearly set an NFL single-game touchdown record against them. The Buccaneers SHOULD be able to move the chains on them, but the capitalized word is key, as Jameis Winston has been extremely inconsistent thus far as a pro. Winston could throw three touchdowns on the Giants, or he could also launch just as many interceptions – if not more. It’s sounding like Jason Pierre-Paul could return this week. If so, that’ll make things more difficult for Winston.

Leaning on Doug Martin will be crucial, and it’s something the Buccaneers just might be able to do. The Giants started off being pretty stout against the run earlier in the year, but they’ve allowed an average of 146 rushing yards to their previous four opponents.

RECAP: I like the Giants quite a bit here. Their offense will be unstoppable against Tampa’s defense, while their stop unit, perhaps with the help of Pierre-Paul, will be playing for pride after being embarrassed in New Orleans last week.

This spread is simply way too low. The Buccaneers don’t have any sort of homefield advantage, so my number would be Giants -5. They are an auto-fade as hosts, while the Giants are much better on the road. The only thing that scares me is how much action is coming in on New York, but this spread hasn’t been set properly, so Vegas will probably end up losing money on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to -2. It doesn’t seem like sharp action is driving it. It might be shraps/contrarians, or perhaps teaser protection. Betting on a bad team coming off a win doesn’t seem too smart. I like the Giants for three units.

SUNDAY NOTES: Jason Pierre-Paul is back, and I think he’ll help the Giants’ defense. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers will be missing Austin Seferian-Jenkins on top of Vincent Jackson. I still like the Giants quite a bit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Giants take on the Patriots next week, so they could be looking ahead. On the other hand, the Buccaneers are coming off an emotional win, so they could be flat.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

People are impressed with the Giants and Eli Manning’s six touchdowns, so there’s a ton of action on them.

Percentage of money on New York: 78% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Road Team is 60-35 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Giants are 43-25 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Buccaneers are 14-34 ATS at home in the previous 48 instances.

Buccaneers are 7-17 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Giants -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Giants 41, Buccaneers 27
Giants -1.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 32, Buccaneers 18

Denver Broncos (7-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)
Line: Broncos by 4. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -3.
Sunday, Nov 8, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Episode 8 is posted. Emmitt, Ray Rice and Dianna Marie Russini enter the North Korean Nuclear Facility, but have to pass Kim Jong-un’s three trials.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts made some news on Tuesday when they fired offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton. I graded this a C; Hamilton is not a good offensive coordinator, but he was not primarily responsible for the team’s struggles, and firing him during a non-bye week was a mistake, as it doesn’t give Indianapolis much of a chance.

We all saw what happened to the Lions when they canned Joe Lombardi. They were just completely unprepared and disoriented in London against a bad Kansas City defense, so they had issues moving the chains as a consequence. The same thing will happen to the Colts, who won’t be able to put together a complete game plan, as they’ll be scrambling without one of their primary coaches, especially on a short work week.

It’s not like the Colts had much of a chance anyway. Their offensive line is a disaster, and it’s clear that Luck is laboring through an injury. The receivers won’t be able to get separation from the Denver secondary, so Luck will look like he did in the first three quarters against the Panthers – at least while the game is still in doubt.

DENVER OFFENSE: Media overreaction is usually ridiculous. Peyton Manning torched the Packers, so he’s suddenly back, and everyone on ESPN wants to tell us that he only struggled earlier in the year because he was unfamiliar with Gary Kubiak’s scheme.

So stupid. Manning was tentative, sure, but that doesn’t account for all of the dead ducks he threw. Oh, and by the way, he had some more ducks that could’ve been intercepted against the Packers. One actually was, but he was fortunate to get away with a couple more possible picks. Those will come eventually, but I’m not sure if that’ll happen against the Colts, who couldn’t stop Carolina’s passing attack Monday night when the rain let up and the receivers, aside from Ted Ginn, stopped dropping passes. Indianapolis has documented issues in its secondary, and those could be exposed.

The one positive development for the Broncos on Sunday night was how great their rushing attack looked. C.J. Anderson finally ran like he was actually alive, as he and Ronnie Hillman gashed the Packers. The Colts have a middling ground defense that’s ranked 18th in YPC. It had some issues versus Jonathan Stewart, so things are looking up for both Anderson and Hillman.

RECAP: I’m pretty pissed off right now. Well, sort of pissed off. Maybe annoyed rather than pissed. I was planning on betting the Colts this week – and then they went and fired their offensive coordinator.

As I said, doing something like this during a non-bye week is dumb. It can only backfire, and the Colts will now be too busy scrambling around and figuring out their coaching situation rather than focusing on the game, especially on a short work week. I liked them because I expected the Broncos to be flat following their huge victory over the Packers, plus I think they’re overrated because Manning sucks now. However, Indianapolis can’t be wagered on this week.

This spread keeps shooting up, as the sharps, like the public, want absolutely nothing to do with Indianapolis. If you want to bet Denver, do it now before this spread reaches six. I won’t be wagering on the Broncos, however, as I’m forever fearful of the Luck back-door cover, plus the amount of money on Denver is ridiculous.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line keeps moving up. If you like the Broncos, get in now before it rises to -6. If you want to bet the Colts, you should wait. I’d be careful though, as Indianapolis fired a coordinator on a short work week.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’m surprised that this spread has sunk, but it’s good if you like the Broncos. The spread movement earlier in the week was a phantom shift, as the sharps were placing small bets on one side so that they could get a better number on the other. Well, it worked. If you want to bet the Colts, they’re +4.5 -105 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A revenge game for the Broncos. A big game for the Colts. No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Everyone is on the Broncos, and understandably so.

Percentage of money on Denver: 83% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Peyton Manning is 46-28 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Andrew Luck is 14-4 ATS off a loss.

Andrew Luck is 20-8 ATS at home.

Andrew Luck is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Colts 17
Broncos -4 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 27, Broncos 24

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-5)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -1.5.
Sunday, Nov 8, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Jerks at My Sister’s Wedding – Part 1.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles could barely do anything on this side of the ball the last time they battled the Cowboys. Sam Bradford went 23-of-37 for 224 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions and a fumble on a botched snap – a stat line that looks way better than he played. Bradford was hurt by some drops and miscommunications, but he made numerous mistakes of his own and looked very skittish throughout the afternoon. His offensive line protected him poorly, and this was without Greg Hardy on the field. Hardy is capable of dominating the line of scrimmage on his own, so I don’t know how Philadelphia is going to block him.

Meanwhile, DeMarco Murray, making his first start against his former team, managed just two yards on 13 carries. It was a horrific showing, though he wasn’t responsible for that embarrassing stat line. He was hit as soon as he touched the ball behind the line of scrimmage, getting blown up on so many occasions.

There’s no reason why that would change. Murray has only been marginally better of late, but that’s because he has gone up against worse defenses like the Giants and Saints. He was back to averaging a meager YPC figure (3.6) against a real defense like Carolina’s. The Cowboys, who will be determined to stop him, will put the clamps on him again. The Eagles could have success moving the chains with Ryan Mathews, but Chip Kelly is stubborn and isn’t using his best option.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys might be 6-1 right now if Tony Romo had been starting this entire time, but Romo sustained an injury in this very matchup back in Week 2. Brandon Weeden was a failure, and while Matt Cassel has been better because of his leadership and mobility, he’s not any sort of solution either. Philadelphia’s defensive weakness is its secondary, but Cassel won’t be able to take advantage of that, even with Dez Bryant set to be more productive this week.

Aside from their secondary, the Eagles are pretty stout on this side of the ball. They’re especially good on the defensive line; they generate tons of pressure on the quarterback, as they gave the Saints and Giants major problems recently. However, Dallas has one of the top blocking units in the NFL, so Cassel could be pretty well protected for the most part.

The Cowboys also do a great job of blasting open running lanes for their backs. Darren McFadden was battling the Seahawks this past Sunday, yet he had a respectable showing with some tough runs. The Eagles, like Seattle, have a ferocious rush defense, but McFadden won’t be completely silenced.

RECAP: I love the Cowboys enough to bet five units on them. They’re about even with the Eagles, so this spread is just wrong. Dallas should be slight favorites; not underdogs.

The Cowboys also have a great matchup against the Eagles; there’s a reason they’ve blown them out twice in a row. Dallas, with its forceful front, is capable of pushing around the horrible Eagles’ line and ruining things for Bradford and Murray. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ great blocking neutralizes the Eagles’ primary strength, which is their defensive line.

Dallas has a great track record as a home underdog. The underdog in general has a great covering history in Cowboys games, and all NFC East divisional games, as a matter of fact. I also have to think that motivation will be on the Cowboys’ side; they absolutely need to win this game to avoid 2-6. Tony Romo is coming back soon, but it won’t matter if they’re already out of it.

Oh, and here’s a trend for you, in case you’re into those. Home underdogs coming off a loss as home underdogs are 56-27 against the spread since 2002, and yes, this has worked in the New CBA Era; since 2011, teams are 19-11 ATS in this situation; 7-3 ATS in divisional matchups.

To top it off, the public is betting the Eagles. This is a stand-alone game Sunday night, so people will be looking to either double up or win back their money by betting Philadelphia – a team that should not be a road favorite over anyone, save for the bottom-feeders of the NFL. The Cowboys are not a bottom-feeder, as they’ve been competitive in every contest since Romo got hurt, save for their loss to New England.

I actually considered this as my October NFL Pick of the Month (even though it’s November). If I had more confidence in my picks, I’d slap eight units on Dallas, but I think I need some more winning weeks to get there. Perhaps I’ll change my mind, especially if I can get +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: One frequent hate mailer who is one of the squarest bettors I know sent me an e-mail and told me that he loves the Eagles this week. So, take that for what it’s worth. Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web, is currently offering -101 juice on the Eagles at -3, indicating that they want Philadelphia money.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Eagles are getting the public action, while the sharps haven’t really touched this game all that much at -3. Interestingly, despite all the money coming in on Philadelphia, the books haven’t raised this to -3.5, as they’re obviously afraid that the professionals will pound Dallas +3.5. I still love the Cowboys, as the Eagles simply aren’t good enough to be laying points on the road against any team that’s not terrible.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
A healthy lean on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 64% (82,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Road Team has won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Chip Kelly is 0-2 ATS after a bye.

The underdog is 57-29 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 26-16 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Cowboys 20, Eagles 13
Cowboys +3 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 33, Cowboys 27

Chicago Bears (2-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-6)
Line: Chargers by 4. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -1.5.
Monday, Nov 9, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Bears.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Diego, home of the Padres! Tonight, the Padres take on the Chicago Bears. Guys, I normally don’t care about games that don’t feature my Philadelphia Eagles, but this matchup intrigues me. That’s because it features two quarterbacks who flat out hate each other. When two arch rivals square off against each other, I take notice. It’s like Superman fighting Lex Luthor, Batman taking on the Flash, Bert taking on Ernie, and Hansel taking on Gretel. Most of all, me taking on Herm Edwards, that idiot!!!

Herm: NOT AN IDIOT! HERM’S NOT AN IDIOT! HERM’S NOT STUPID! HERM’S NOT DUMB! HERM’S NOT AN IMBECILE! HERM’S NOT RETARDED! SHOULDN’T SAY RETARDED! BAD TO SAY RETARDED! HORRIBLE TO SAY RETARDED! NOT PC TO SAY RETARDED! THAT’S BECAUSE HERM’S PC! HERM’S VERY PC! HERM’S TRULY PC! BUT THAT’S NOT IMPORTANT! NOT REALLY IMPORTANT! NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANT! WHAT’S IMPORTANT IS THAT HANSEL AND GRETEL ARE NOT RIVALS! THEY DON’T HATE EACH OTHER! THEY DON’T DESPISE EACH OTHER! THEY DON’T WANT TO KILL EACH OTHER! THEY LOVE EACH OTHER! BROTHER-AND-SISTER LOVE! BUT NOT LIKE GAME OF THRONES LOVE! NO INCEST! WELL, MAYBE INCEST! WE DON’T REALLY KNOW! MAYBE THERE WAS INCEST! BUT THEY DIDN’T HATE EACH OTHER! NO HATE! ONLY LOVE! BUT WE DON’T KNOW WHAT KIND OF LOVE! WHAT KIND OF LOVE!? WE DON’T REALLY KNOW! HERM’S GOING TO DO SOME RESEARCH! HERM NEEDS TO FIND OUT! HERM NEEDS TO DISCOVER! HERM HAS TO LEARN! HERM HAS TO… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up! I’m going to kill you if you don’t shut up! I’m going to suffocate you like Hansel did to Gretel and Bert did to Ernie!

Emmitt: Mike, or… uhh… Habib, I think you makin’ a steaks, or to be more precise, a missed steaks about Bert and Ernie. They the two guy on the show Sesame Seed who orange and yellow. I do not know what country these guy is from. Like, black folk originally from the country of Africa. Red folk are Naive American. Yellow guy maybe from the country of Asian, but what about Orange? Maybe from a island in the Specific Ocean?

Millen: Kevin, I think it’s interesting that you brought up Bert and Ernie. I sometimes fantasize that I can live with Bert and Ernie. How glorious would that be!? Bert must stick his kielbasas in Ernie’s backside, and the next night, it might be Ernie’s turn to stick his kielbasas into Bert’s backside. If I lived there, we could either have a three-kielbasa rotation, or better yet, we could have a kielbasa triangle where everyone sticks kielbasas into someone’s backside, and you can form a triangle whilst doing so.

Tollefson: You guys are all idiots. How can you talk about two guys living together, or even three guys? Two men should never be roommates. If two men live together with no woman around, who in the world is going to cook and clean naked? It’s absurd to think that a man would cook or clean, or do anything around the house. It’s ridiculous, and quite frankly, I’m so appalled that I can’t even stand to be with you guys anymore. Goodbye.

Wolfley: I THINK IT’S POSSIBLE FOR TWO MEN TO LIVE IN THE SAME HOUSE. IN FACT, I ONCE LIVED IN AN APARTMENT WITH A MAN, AND WE HAD A PET GIRAFFE WITH US, AND WE USED TO FEED THE GIRAFFE VAPOR RUB UNTIL HE DIED FOR SOME REASON. WE HAVE NO IDEA WHY.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by “died.” When something doesn’t live anymore, it dies. Unless it was never alive to begin with. Some things aren’t alive, like rocks, tables and trees. None of those things are ever alive, so they can’t die, unless someone invents a special machine that turns inanimate objects into animate objects. I can’t wait for this to happen because I wanted to have a pet table so I could talk to it all day. I think I could become best friends with a table, to be honest with you. We’d hang out all day, and we’d talk about deep things, like what it would be like to have a pet tree.

Reilly: Trees are alive, you moron!

Charles Davis: There are more things that are alive than trees, Kevin. Let’s go down the list, Kevin. All plants are alive, Kevin. All animals are alive, too, Kevin. There are lots of different animals, Kevin. How about a dog, Kevin? Dogs are alive for sure, Kevin. Unless they’ve been put down, Kevin. Then they’re not alive, Kevin. What about cats, Kevin? They’re alive, Kevin. Unless they’re dead, too, Kevin. What about fish, Kevin? What about giraffes, Kevin? How about leopards, Kevin? Let’s not forget about lions, Kevin. I mean both real lions and Detroit Lions, Kevin. Both are alive, Kevin. I’m going to ask you a multiple-choice question, Kevin. Ready, Kevin? Of these three, what’s alive, Kevin? A cookie, Kevin, a wall, Kevin, or a tiger, Kevin? Oh, you guessed cookie, Kevin? Wrong, Kevin! It’s tiger, Kevin!

Reilly: YOU KNOW WHAT’S NOT GOING TO BE ALIVE, A**HOLE!? YOU, CHARLES, MOTHER-F***ER!!! We’ll be back right after this!

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Philip Rivers threw for 503 passing yards in a game this season, but imagine how much better his stats would be if he had a healthy supporting cast. He was missing Antonio Gates early, but as soon as the future Hall of Fame tight end returned from suspension, it seemed like everyone around him sustained injuries. His offensive line is currently in shambles, while his top receiver, Keenan Allen, is now out for the season with a kidney injury.

Despite this, Rivers moved the ball extremely well against the Ravens. Baltimore has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, so that’s at least an explanation. Chicago doesn’t have the best pass defense either, however, as their cornerbacks have been abused all year. I have to believe that Rivers, who is playing at an extremely high level right now, will be able to move the chains effectively, albeit in another dink-and-dunk approach. The Bears just have a mediocre pass rush, but considering that the Chargers’ offensive line can’t block right now, Rivers will have to resort to short stuff.

The offensive line once again won’t do anything for Melvin Gordon. I think the Chargers need to move away from Gordon right now until they have blockers who can give him sufficient running room. Gordon has been a big disappointment thus far; it seems like a wasted down every time he touches the ball, and he’s been very fumble-prone. Danny Woodhead should be involved more.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I’m shocked that Jay Cutler has been pretty decent this year, but he’s had a much better demeanor than in 2014. He’s smiling during press conferences and actually looking like he cares. He has played well recently, throwing six touchdowns to only two interceptions since returning to the lineup after missing a start. He hasn’t exactly played the best defenses – matchups with the Chiefs and Lions have helped – but it’s not like he has a tough battle this Monday.

The Chargers had no chance of stopping Joe Flacco last week. Steve Smith and center Jeremy Zuttah were both injured, but it didn’t matter. Baltimore moved the ball extremely easily, as San Diego also had major injury issues on its stop unit as well. Things won’t suddenly get better, and Cutler could pick up where Flacco left off. The Chargers won’t have an answer for Alshon Jeffery or Martellus Bennett.

Matt Forte is out, but the Bears still should have plenty of success on this side of the ball. I like Jeremy Langford; he rushed for 46 yards on 12 carries against a superior Minnesota ground defense. The Chargers are dead last versus the rush, so Langford could definitely have a breakout performance on a national stage.

RECAP: These teams are dead even, so why are the Chargers favored by four? I don’t think they should even be laying a field goal, since they have no homefield advantage. As hosts this year since the opener, they’ve barely beaten the Browns, lost in the final minute to QBDK, and gotten blown out by the Raiders. They don’t play well at home, as the fans stopped showing up.

I like the Bears enough to wager four units on them. This spread makes no sense, and the sharps apparently agree, as they’ve bet this down despite there being significant money on the host. San Diego is a train wreck right now with all of its injuries, and the fact that it couldn’t beat the Ravens, who lost Steve Smith and their starting center, says a lot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad to see that the sharps love the Bears. This spread has dropped to +3.5 in most places, but there are some +4s still out there, as well as a +4.5 -115 at Bovada. Chicago should cover, as this spread is too high considering that the Chargers have a banged-up offensive line and no homefield advantage to speak of.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Lots of action on the host.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 65% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -4.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Chargers 23
Bears +4 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 22, Chargers 19

Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games
Cleveland at Cincinnati, Green Bay at Carolina, Washington at New England, Tennessee at New Orleans, Miami at Buffalo, St. Louis at Minnesota, Jacksonville at New York Jets, Oakland at Pittsburgh

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)