NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2021

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)
Line: Bengals by 7.5. Total: 46.
Thursday, Sept. 30, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 3 Analysis: My seventh-place finish in the SuperContest seems like it occurred decades ago because of all the bad luck we’ve suffered this year, beginning with that awful Lions back-door cover in Week 1. We won our September NFL Pick of the Month with the Dolphins this past week, but still had a losing Sunday because of other nonsense. I’ll dive into all plays of three-plus units once again:

Lions, 3 units: This went as expected. The Ravens played a very sloppy game because they were coming off their monumental win against the Chiefs.

Redskins, 3 units: This pick was wrong because I misread the Redskins. I thought they were a good team. They most certainly are not.

Chiefs, 5 units: This was extremely frustrating. The Chiefs’ first three drives all went inside the Chargers’ 30-yard line. They came away with zero points on all three possessions because of a trio of turnovers. How does an offense with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce score nothing in three consecutive trips inside an opponent’s 30-yard line? That will never happen again to these three in their entire careers as long as they’re together!

Browns, 3 units: Nailed this one, though I’m upset I had to drop my unit count from four to three because the line rose from -7 to -7.5.

Bengals, 3 units: Another correct pick that should’ve possessed a higher unit count.

Dolphins, 8 units: All I can say is: Phew! I thought the Raiders were going to score a touchdown on the final drive of overtime because Peyton Barber suddenly resembled Jim Brown against Miami’s exhausted defense.

Seahawks, 4 units: How do both Mahomes and Russell Wilson both fail to cover off losses during the same week? I love betting elite quarterbacks off defeats. It’s something that has worked extremely well for me over the years, but it was an 0-2 dud in Week 3.

49ers, 3 units: I ended up betting the 49ers because Emmanuel Moseley’s return from injury meant that the 49ers would have a mostly healthy group of cornerbacks versus Aaron Rodgers. Little did I know that the 49ers would lose two corners, including the talented K’Waun Williams, in the opening half! I wouldn’t have bet a dime on the 49ers if I knew Williams and Josh Norman would get hurt. S**t happens sometimes.

Cowboys, 3 units: I nearly made this a four-unit pick, but the -126 vig scared me.

I made a couple of bad calls this past week, but we should’ve had a winning Sunday. Let’s hope our luck turns around in Week 4!

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It was just three weeks ago when we all wondered if Joe Burrow was going to be anywhere close to 100 percent for this season after he tore his ACL last November. Burrow has had some rough moments – including his three-interception spree at Chicago – but has played very well for the most part. It helps that his stellar receiving corps, headlined by Ja’Marr Chase, is performing above expectations after there were questions following the preseason.

Chase and Tyler Boyd have nice matchups in this contest. The Jaguars’ struggling secondary lost C.J. Henderson to a trade with the Panthers. They don’t have the personnel to cover Chase and Boyd, while the lackluster pass rush won’t put much heat on Burrow.

Joe Mixon, meanwhile, figures to have a big game against Jacksonville’s run defense, which endured some severe struggles versus Houston’s awful running backs in the season opener.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence hasn’t met expectations yet, though given how high they were, it would’ve been impossible for him to reach them. Lawrence has made some mistakes, but there have been bright moments, which some of his rookie counterparts haven’t really enjoyed thus far. To be fair, Lawrence has been tasked with some difficult matchups. The Broncos have one of the top defenses in the NFL, while Texans defensive coordinator Lovie Smith confused Lawrence in his first pro action.

Lawrence won’t have a tough matchup in this contest, as his receivers figure to dominate Cincinnati’s cornerbacks. The Bengals have been giving plenty of snaps to Eli Apple, who is probably the worst starting cornerback in the NFL. He doesn’t stand a chance against either Marvin Jones or D.J. Chark, and I don’t think the other corners will do well either. They’ll have to bank on the pass rush getting to Lawrence, which will likely happen on some occasions because Jacksonville can’t block.

James Robinson, meanwhile, has gotten more work in the past couple of weeks. He’ll have a tougher matchup than he did this past Sunday, as Cincinnati has done a good job of improving its run defense this season.

RECAP: This spread seems a bit too high for my liking. The Bengals are 2-1, but they lost to the lowly Bears, and they would’ve suffered a defeat at home against the Vikings had Dalvin Cook not fumbled over midfield in overtime. I know the Jaguars are 0-3, but they showed signs of life versus Arizona last week, holding a 19-10 lead in the third quarter before imploding.

If the Jaguars could stay within 12 of the Cardinals, they can keep this contest within a touchdown. I think the Jaguars might be worth a bet if this game weren’t on a Thursday, given that these short weeks tend to benefit the superior squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may regret this, but I’m going to bet the Jaguars. Cincinnati will be missing its top cornerback and safety. The Bengals are coming off a statement victory and may take the Jaguars lightly. This spread is high, so Jacksonville seems more appealing to me. That said, the short week benefits the superior squad, so this will just be a two-unit wager. I’m also going to put Jacksonville into a tiny moneyline underdog parlay.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bengals won’t have Chidobe Awuzie or Jessie Bates, as expected. Perhaps this is why the sharps are betting the Jaguars. I’m glad to see that, so I’ll maintain my two-unit wager on them. The best line I can find is +7 -110 at BetUS. Like I wrote earlier, I’m going to toss the Jaguars into a moneyline parlay for fun. I’m pairing them with the Giants.

Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Washington Redskins (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Line: Redskins by 2. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: This game features some of the most disappointing players in the NFL this year. Everyone expected Matt Ryan to decline because of the Julio Jones and Alex Mack departures, but he has struggled even more than most imagined. Calvin Ridley also hasn’t been the dominant receiver people expected him to be. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, the extremely talented Chase Young has been mediocre, while William Jackson and Landon Collins have been embarrassed thus far.

Ryan is not protected well, so it would make sense if the Redskins to apply heavy pressure on him. However, the Redskins’ pass rush hasn’t been an elite unit. Perhaps they’ll improve because Atlanta’s offensive line is not very good, but Washington can’t bank on that in this matchup.

Conversely, Ridley and Kyle Pitts both have good matchups. Jackson, as mentioned, has been torched all year, while Pitts will be going against a linebacking corps that is among the worst in the NFL.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Taylor Heinicke impressed in his first regular-season start by beating the Giants with a last-second drive, but he came crashing down to Earth this past week. Heinicke was dreadful versus the Bills, giving his team no chance of competing.

That said, there’s a huge difference between the Buffalo and Atlanta defenses. The Falcons possess no pass rush outside of Grady Jarrett, and the Redskins have a decent offensive line. They’ll be able to protect Heinicke much better in this matchup, allowing the young quarterback to connect with Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas more consistently than he did last week.

Antonio Gibson should have a big game as well. The Falcons are better versus the run than the pass, but really only by default. Gibson, who broke a long reception against the Bills, might be able to do the same versus these poor Atlanta defenders.

RECAP: I’ve completely misread the Redskins this year, so I don’t feel comfortable betting them. They have yet to cover the spread, so they haven’t even met other people’s expectations, which were probably lower than mine.

Having said that, they are certainly better than the Falcons. They should be able to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They also have the motivational factor on their side because the Falcons will be flying to London after this game. This may be the first time the Atlanta players and coaches will be flying overseas since the pandemic began, so that should be a big deal.

None of this is enough for me to bet this game. I’m picking the Redskins for office pool purposes, but I need to see them play up to their ability for the first time this year before I waste any more of my money on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brandon Scherff missed Wednesday’s practice, but returned Thursday. It seems like there’s some sharp action on the visitor.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t find an edge in this appropriately priced game, save for the Falcons’ possible look-ahead to London. I’m staying on the Redskins for no units.

TEASER ADDED: I don’t have a strong opinion on the side of this game, but I like the Falcons in a teaser because I can’t really see the Redskins winning by eight or more. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson seldom gets blown out, so the Seahawks are a nice second leg.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no injury surprises here. There’s no sharp action. And the spread is Redskins -2 across the board. This is a boring game I’m not betting, outside of taking Atlanta in a teaser.

Detroit Lions (0-3) at Chicago Bears (1-2)
Line: Bears by 2.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 7-4 so far this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Cardinals -7.5

Panthers -7.5

Bills -7

Titans -5.5

Seahawks -2

Raiders -4

Cowboys -3.5

The teams were 5-2. This hasn’t been a great year for the sportsbooks so far.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Buccaneers -6

Titans -7.5

Chiefs -6

Bengals -7.5

Seahawks +2.5

Packers -7

Lions +3

Some large favorites. Some road favorites. Some public dogs. Pretty much par for the course.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s unclear who will start at quarterback for the Bears this week. Justin Fields had absolutely no chance behind his dreadful offensive line last week, enduring nine sacks before getting concussed. Andy Dalton might still be hurt. It could be up to third-stringer Nick Foles to play.

Either way, the Bears’ scoring unit will be better this week than it was this past Sunday because they won’t have to battle the Browns’ fearsome defensive line again. The Lions have a couple of potent pass rushers – Trey Flowers, Romeo Okwara – but nothing like Myles Garrett. Besides, Flowers missed last week’s game, so he may not play or be 100 percent. If so, that’ll obviously be a huge boon to Chicago’s ailing offense.

The Bears’ skill players also have a better matchup this time. The Browns possess an excellent secondary that absolutely smothered Allen Robinson and Mad-Eye Mooney. Robinson and Mooney will face no such resistance in this contest against Detroit’s horrible corners. Meanwhile, David Montgomery’s outlook is promising versus the Lions’ horrible run defense.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Bears aren’t the only team dealing with offensive line issues in this game. The Lions have them as well, though they’re not as dire as Chicago’s situation. Then again, Detroit hasn’t battled a team with a fierce pass rush since Week 1, which I’ll remind you was a blowout until the 49ers fell asleep in garbage time.

I don’t trust the Taylor Decker-less Lions offensive line to protect against Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. Jared Goff will struggle with pressure, and it’s not like he’ll have open receivers at his disposal. Detroit has some of the worst wideouts in the NFL, so Chicago’s secondary won’t have much of an issue covering them.

The Lions, of course, will look to establish D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. The Bears’ run defense was leaky last week, but only because monstrous nose tackle Eddie Goldman was sidelined. Goldman seemed close to playing, so perhaps he’ll return this week.

RECAP: This spread is a major overreaction to what occurred last week. Everyone watched Fields take nine sacks, and then everyone else watched the Lions get screwed out of a win by bad officiating and the longest kick in NFL history. The advance spread, which was Chicago -6, has plummeted all the way to -3.

That’s an absurd movement that isn’t warranted. There’s no shame in the Bears losing on the road to a top-six NFL team, especially a week after beating the Bengals at home. The Lions, meanwhile, took advantage of a sloppy Baltimore squad that was high off its victory against the Chiefs. If Marquise Brown didn’t drop three deep passes, there’s no game-winning field goal because the Ravens would’ve prevailed by a larger margin.

I love the value we’re getting with the Bears, and I’m also a big fan of betting against the public. Casual fans are wagering tons of money on the Lions despite this reduced spread. Furthermore, there’s a chance that Detroit’s distracted as a result of complaining too much about being robbed. The Lions have a legitimate gripe, but they may not be fully focused on this game.

This will be a three- or four-unit wager, depending on the injury status of Flowers, Goldman and some other players.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trey Flowers is off to a bad start this week, failing to practice Wednesday and Thursday. This would make me like the Bears more, but Jacob Camenker talked me off that ledge during the show, pointing out that Matt Nagy is on the hot seat and thus the players may not be 100-percent focused for this game. I’m still going to bet some number of units on the Bears though.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trey Flowers is out, but Khalil Mack may not play either. That makes me less interested in the Bears, but I still like them against a publicly backed Detroit team that will be reeling from its last-second loss. My unit count will be determined Sunday morning once we know Mack’s status.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Khalil Mack is playing, so I like the Bears to cover for a couple of units. You can get positive vig at Bovada (-3 +105) or a viable -2.5 at DraftKings (-115). Because Chicago winning by three is such a likely result, I’m going to bet the -2.5 -115 at DraftKings. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New York Jets (0-3)
Line: Titans by 6. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



Ralph sent this when the Dolphins were trailing by double digits, so that was a nice troll toward the end. What’s up with the subject of his e-mail, by the way. Why is it “status?”

Here’s someone who did some checking around:



Wait, what happened at the White House on Jan. 6? I thought the peaceful protest was at the Capitol.

Here’s our old friend Frank Sebastiano, whom I wrote about in Jerks of the Week back in April:



This is a preview of a longer conversation I had with Frank. I’ll be posting that in Jerks of the Week once again soon!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Zach Wilson has been absolutely dreadful this year, but to be fair, he hasn’t exactly been very lucky with his matchups. He battled the highly ranked Carolina defense in Week 1, then matched wits with Bill Belichick and Vic Fangio. It’s been a rough schedule, to say the least.

Fortunately for Wilson, things will get easier, beginning with this game. The Titans are, by far, the softest defense Wilson has seen on the slate thus far. They don’t have a very good pass rush, so the Jets’ pedestrian offensive line will have fewer issues than usual. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s secondary is rather mediocre. Janoris Jenkins looks completely washed up, so Wilson’s receivers will be able to get open, which hasn’t happened very often this year.

I wouldn’t expect much from the Jets’ running game, however, as Tennessee is much stronger versus the rush than the pass. However, Michael Carter might have some success as a receiver out of the backfield, much like Nyheim Hines did last week.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Jets’ defense doesn’t match up well versus most opponents because their secondary, aside from Marcus Maye, is hot garbage. However, they have a stalwart defensive line that can limit the run very well. Given that the Titans rely on Derrick Henry, the Jets’ stop unit just might have a chance.

Something else helping the Jets is that Tennessee’s receiving corps is banged up. A.J. Brown is week-to-week with an injury he suffered in the first half against the Colts. Julio Jones, meanwhile, seemingly suffered some sort of malady while running down an Indianapolis cornerback on an interception late in the second quarter because he didn’t see the field following intermission. I imagine there’s a decent chance Jones will play, but will he be 100 percent?

Ryan Tannehill may have to rely on the likes of Nick Westbrook and Chester Rogers in this game. Westbrook actually looked pretty good last week, aside from his fumble, so all hope won’t be lost for the Titans if their two talented wideouts are sidelined.

RECAP: This spread is too high. I know the Jets haven’t been competitive this year, but this is their easiest matchup to date. Granted, they’re not playing another bottom-dwelling team, but the Titans are a bit overhyped right now. Remember, Tennessee trailed in Seattle, 24-9, prior to the Seahawks’ collapse, and they beat an injured Carson Wentz last week. They’re only three weeks removed from being absolutely throttled by the Cardinals in the opener.

I would like to point out that the advance spread on this game was Tennessee -6. It has risen 1.5 points, which may not seem like a big deal before considering that two very important numbers are involved: six and seven. Crossing seven is huge, while getting a win with six instead of a push is important as well. This line move is not warranted; beating an injured Wentz wasn’t impressive. Also, the injuries to Brown and Jones should have suppressed the line movement, but the opposite has transpired.

My one concern with betting the Jets – besides actually betting the Jets – is that they have to fly out to London after this game. They could be distracted, but I think there’s less of a chance of them being so compared to the Falcons because unlike Atlanta, they’re not coming off a win. The Jets are 0-3 and will be desperate for a victory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Neither A.J. Brown nor Julio Jones practiced Wednesday. I may increase my unit count on the Jets if both are out this week. The sharps bet the Jets on Thursday, driving this line down to +7.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are out. Bud Dupree won’t be available either. This makes the Titans very prone to a back-door cover, if the Jets even need it. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m betting big on the Jets. The sharps are doing this as well; they’ve dragged the spread down to +6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s major sharp action on the Jets, as this spread has fallen to +5.5 in some sportsbooks. You can still get +6 -110 at Bovada. I also wouldn’t mind betting the moneyline, with the best line being +225 at Bovada.

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
Line: Pick. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings are two plays away from being 3-0 right now. If Dalvin Cook didn’t fumble over midfield in overtime versus the Bengals, and if Greg Joseph didn’t whiff on an easy field goal at the end of the Arizona affair, the Vikings would be undefeated. If that were the case, Kirk Cousins would be discussed as an MVP candidate because he has been playing on a very high level this year.

That could change this week, however. Cousins hasn’t battled a tough defense yet, as his toughest matchup has been against the Cardinals. The Browns are far better defensively than Arizona, Cincinnati and Seattle. We just saw what Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and the rest of the pass rush did to Chicago’s offensive front, and something similar could happen in this contest because Cousins is not well protected. No one has really exposed the Vikings’ offensive line yet, but the Browns should be able to do so.

The Browns also possess an excellent secondary that actually has a chance to slow down Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Dalvin Cook, meanwhile, will be battling a tough front that has limited opposing ground attacks this year.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Even though the Browns won 26-6 last week, Baker Mayfield played poorly. He missed two potential touchdowns and took some bad sacks. This was one week after he was nearly flawless. Mayfield is still young, but there shouldn’t be this sort of inconsistency behind a great offensive line.

Mayfield’s excellent blockers will be crucial in this matchup. Danielle Hunter and company hounded Russell Wilson last week, preventing the Seahawks from scoring a single point after halftime. They won’t have as much success against Mayfield, who will continue to connect with Odell Beckham Jr., who appeared to be 100 percent in his debut last week.

Mayfield will also be able to lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt again. The Vikings haven’t battled a tough running game since Week 1, when Joe Mixon dashed for 127 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. Chubb and Hunt will combine to exceed that figure in this contest.

RECAP: I’m a bit surprised that the spread hasn’t moved in Minnesota’s favor. The Vikings are coming off an upset victory against the Seahawks, so I thought that would warrant some line movement in their direction. Then again, the Browns just notched nine sacks against Justin Fields.

This seems like a tough matchup for the Vikings, who will have trouble protecting Cousins. They could be 3-0 right now, but the one upper-echelon opponent they’ve battled thus far would’ve beaten them by double digits had Kyler Murray not thrown two sloppy interceptions in the second half.

I’m leaning toward the Browns, but without any major injuries, line value or motivational advantages, I’m not really seeing a reason to bet this game at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns, once again, had Jedrick Wills and J.C. Tretter miss practice at the beginning of the week. This has happened the past three weeks, so I wouldn’t read anything into it.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams will likely be missing one key defensive player (Greg Newsome for the Browns, Michael Pierce for the Vikings). I’m still sticking with the Browns for no units, but if both of Cleveland’s questionable offensive linemen sit out, I’ll switch to the Vikings on Sunday morning. Jedrick Wills and J.C. Tretter were DDL (DNP-DNP-limited) this week, but that was the case the past two weeks, and they ended up playing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both of Cleveland’s questionable offensive linemen. The Vikings, meanwhile, will have Dalvin Cook and Michael Pierce available, though Anthony Barr is out another week. The sharps bet the Vikings on Sunday morning. I don’t hate that side, but I’m still leaning toward Cleveland. The best line for the Browns is -2 +105 at Bookmaker.

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)
Line: Dolphins by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I was surprised the Colts started Carson Wentz last week. Dealing with two ankle sprains, Wentz was extremely limited in the pocket. He could barely move, and he was limping at times. His team scored 16 points against the Titans, but 10 of those points came off Ryan Tannehill turnovers.

It seems unlikely that Wentz will be 100 percent for this game because he needs both of his ankles to recover for that to be the case. Furthermore, the Indianapolis offensive line could be an issue. Braden Smith didn’t play last week, while Quenton Nelson was knocked out of the contest with an injury. It doesn’t sound like Nelson’s issue is very serious, but you never know. If both linemen are out, it’ll be very difficult for Wentz to consistently generate offense.

The Colts’ best chance of scoring is running the ball with Jonathan Taylor. They should have the advantage here, as the Dolphins’ defense made Peyton Barber look like Jim Brown in overtime. Having said that, establishing Taylor could be difficult if the Colts are missing two blockers.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Colts aren’t the only team with offensive line issues in this game. The Dolphins have severe problems blocking, which calls their decision to select a receiver over Penei Sewell into serious question. Jacoby Brissett had a difficult time in the pocket last week, and that once again figures to be the case versus a defensive front comprised of DeForest Buckner and impressive rookie Kwity Paye.

If the Dolphins can somehow give Brissett a chance, he should be able to have success against Indianapolis’ secondary. The Colts couldn’t even stop Nick Westbrook last week, as Xavier Rhodes looked like a shell of himself in his first game back from injury. Perhaps Rhodes will improve this week, but it may take some time. The rest of the secondary won’t stand a chance against Miami’s talented receivers.

RECAP: I like betting against injured quarterbacks, and I also like wagering on good teams playing their backup quarterbacks. So, the questions must be asked: Is Wentz going to be much healthier this week? And are the Dolphins a good team?

There’s no way of knowing Wentz’s status right now, but if he ends up practicing fully all week, that’s a sign that he’s close to 100 percent. As for the Dolphins, I like their defense, receiving corps and coaching, but their offensive line is dreadful. If they just had a mediocre blocking unit, I could definitely qualify them as a good team.

We’ll see what happens later in the week regarding the health of Wentz and Nelson. I may end up betting the Dolphins. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Carson Wentz was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Unless he has a full practice at some point, I won’t be convinced that he’s 100 percent. Meanwhile, both Braden Smith and Quenton Nelson missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, which is a huge deal as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts have so many injuries. On top of Carson Wentz’s bum ankles – he was limited all week – Indianapolis will be without two starting offensive linemen (Quenton Nelson, Braden Smith), its No. 1 receiver (T.Y. Hilton), a top edge rusher (Kwity Paye), two prominent cornerbacks (Rock Ya-Sin, T.J. Carrie) and a starting safety (Khari Willis). What a disaster. The Dolphins have just one injured player heading into this contest, yet the line has barely moved. The Dolphins are clearly the play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp action on the Colts, though nothing overly substantial. Nothing has changed for me regarding this game. I still love the Dolphins because the Colts are so banged up. The best line is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Line: Cowboys by 4.5. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys had no issues running against the Eagles on Monday night. They nearly tallied 200 rushing yards against a helpless Philadelphia defensive line that sorely missed Brandon Graham. Dallas enjoyed similar success on the ground the week before against the Chargers.

Things may change this week. The Panthers have a tough defense that has clamped down on ground attacks well so far this year. They even limited Alvin Kamara a couple of weeks ago, so Dak Prescott will need to do much more this week in order to lead his team to another victory.

The problem with that is Carolina’s excellent aerial defense. The Panthers have some dynamic pass rushers who should be able to expose the couple of holes the Cowboys currently have on their offensive line (center, right tackle), while their trio of talented cornerbacks will be able to limit CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. A.J. Bouye and C.J. Henderson will be seeing their first action in Panther uniform, and they’ll be welcome additions in this tough matchup.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The primary reason why I bet the Cowboys on Monday night was the status of the Eagles’ offensive line. Missing two starters up front, Philadelphia had no chance to block Dallas’ pass rush.

The Panthers don’t have a great offensive line, but they can shield Sam Darnold better than the Eagles could Jalen Hurts this past week. This will give Darnold plenty of time to find D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. The two talented receivers will be battling a secondary that still has some major question marks.

Christian McCaffrey won’t be available to play, but Chuba Hubbard should do fine as long as the Panthers run the ball more than twice. The Eagles inexplicably gave Miles Sanders only two carries Monday night, which was incredibly baffling, especially when considering that the Cowboys are weaker against the rush than the pass, as Austin Ekeler showed us in Week 2.

RECAP: I have to say I’m disappointed. The advance spread for this game was Dallas -4. Given that the Cowboys destroyed the Eagles on national TV, and the Panthers lost Christian McCaffrey, I expected to see a -6 or -6.5.

Instead, the Cowboys are favored by only five. I’d say this is a trap to ensnare the public, but the betting action has been eerily even thus far. Thus, my aspirations of obtaining great value with Carolina have been thwarted.

I’m still going to pick the Panthers because I like their coaching edge in this game. They’ve had much more time to prepare for this contest, and I already liked Carolina’s coaching staff better than Dallas’ anyway. However, the lack of line value will limit my wager, if there even is one.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money coming in on the Panthers already, as this spread has dropped despite the public betting Dallas. That doesn’t surprise me because this line was conspicuously low.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have driven the line down to +4 in some places, so if you like the Panthers, get them while you can. I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the sharps bet the Panthers down to +4, but they haven’t touched Carolina at that number. Some of the square books like Bovada still have a +4.5 available. I’m still not betting this game.

New York Giants (0-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Line: Saints by 7.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Giants.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Jameis Winston hasn’t had to do much in his two victories. Alvin Kamara ran all over the uninterested Packers in the season opener, and then Mac Jones’ two interceptions gave New Orleans 14 free points this past Sunday. Winston, as a result, threw 30 fewer passes than Jones last week.

Winston could struggle if he has to do more in this game. The Giants have excellent cornerbacks that will be able to limit New Orleans’ mediocre receivers. Complicating things further, the Saints could be missing two of their offensive linemen, including their best blocker. Left tackle Terron Armstead will be sidelined, while center Erik McCoy has been out the past two games. The Giants have a strong defensive front that should be able to win in the trenches.

The Giants’ front figures to limit Kamara as well. Kamara could always go off with a huge gain or two, but the Giants are ordinarily stout versus the run.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I mentioned Mac Jones’ two interceptions earlier. We could, of course, see Daniel Jones commit the same blunders. Jones has not improved very much this season; he still makes many mistakes, including a crucial sack on his final offensive drive last week to give the Falcons the victory.

Jones, however, was able to limit his turnovers because he was able to feed Saquon Barkley consistently for the first time all year. Barkley’s workload had been restricted prior to Week 3, but he was full go against the Falcons. He performed well, and I expect to see similar production from him in this contest.

Meanwhile, there are some holes in New Orleans’ secondary for Jones to exploit, if he’s given the chance. There are two issues, however. First, his pass protection is weak, so Cameron Jordan figures to dominate. Second, Sterling Shepard, Jones’ favorite receiver, could be sidelined with an injury. The Giants have other talented wideouts, but Jones loves throwing to Shepard the most.

RECAP: Jameis Winston is favored by more than a touchdown. Let me repeat that in case it hasn’t sunk in yet: Jameis Winston is favored by more than a touchdown.

I get that Winston is battling the Giants, but who is he to be laying more than a touchdown without his top offensive lineman and best receiver? The Giants have a solid defense that should be able to limit him, especially given their big advantage in the trenches.

It’s always scary to bet on Jones because he’s a pick-six or scoop-and-score ready to happen, but the Giants seem to be the right side. I made this line New Orleans -5, while the advance spread was -6.5. This number should not be above a touchdown, so I’m going with the great value we have with New York.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Terron Armstead or Erik Mccoy in practice thus far, so our Giants pick is looking good. Or, as good as it can possibly look when betting on Daniel Jones.

SATURDAY NOTES: Take a look at this injury report and tell me if this team should be favored by a touchdown over any opponent not named the Texans right now:



The Saints have built their record by beating a Packer team that didn’t try, and the Patriots, who gave the game away with two fluky interceptions. This spread is way too high, and the sharps agree, dropping this line from +7.5 to +7. This is a five-unit pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the sharps bet the Giants at +7.5, but not so much at +7. You can still get a +7.5 with -120 juice at Bovada, which is worth it because seven is the No. 2 key number in football. Think about how differently the sharps have treated the two numbers.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Video of the Week: Have you ever wondered what Mike Tyson would look like in the show Family Matters? I have. And now, I finally have my answer:



I think I just peed myself. I would watch this show if it existed.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I saw a prominent publication post their updated power rankings today, and they had the Chiefs 12th! I couldn’t believe it. The Chiefs would be 3-0 right now if Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t fumble at the end of the Baltimore game, and if the Chiefs didn’t commit three sloppy turnovers inside the Chargers’ 30-yard line this past Sunday.

Coming off two losses, I expect a more professional performance from Mahomes and his teammates. There won’t be any ridiculous no-look passes, as Mahomes will attack a defense that couldn’t stop anything the Cowboys were doing this past Sunday night. Philadelphia arguably has the worst linebacking corps in the NFL, so I have no idea how it’ll stop Travis Kelce. Tyreek Hill also figures to dominate.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire will also succeed. He could duplicate his 100-yard performance from last week, given how horrible the Eagles were versus the run at Dallas.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: As if the Eagles didn’t have enough problems with an offensive line missing two starters – Brandon Brooks, Jordan Mailata – they had to watch a third suffer a season-ending injury, as Isaac Seumalo was knocked out for the year late versus Dallas.

The Eagles couldn’t block the Cowboys at all, and they’ll have similar issues against Chris Jones and potentially Frank Clark, who could return from injury this week. This will force Jalen Hurts into rushed throws once again, which proved to be disastrous at Dallas.

Kansas City is weak to the run, so perhaps the Eagles will give Miles Sanders more than two carries this time. Sanders’ lack of usage was baffling, though I’m sure the Philadelphia coaches will blame the deficit for that game plan. That said, the Eagles figure to be far behind once again in this contest, so Sanders could once again be limited.

RECAP: I love betting elite quarterbacks off a loss. That didn’t work last week, but it was a dynamic that was 13-2 against the spread in 2020. It helped me finish seventh in the Supercontest.

Like I said, Mahomes will have a much more professional approach to this game because he has lost two consecutive contests. He and his teammates will play their best against this dreadful Philadelphia squad that won’t have enough time to make the appropriate adjustments off their Monday night blowout defeat.

Even better, the Chiefs will easily win in the trenches because the Eagles will be down either two or three starting offensive linemen. I’ll be shocked if the Chiefs don’t completely demolish Philadelphia. I’m sad that all the sub-seven spreads are gone, but this will still be a huge wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Jordan Mailata in practice yet, which means there’s a very good chance that the Eagles will be down three offensive linemen. Despite this, the sharps are betting on the Eagles, which seems like a mistake.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mailata is out, so the Eagles, operating on short rest, will be down three offensive linemen against a pissed-off Chiefs team that will be doing everything it can to avoid dropping to 1-3. This could be a total massacre.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, Lane Johnson is out as well. That means the Eagles are down four offensive linemen versus a Kansas City team that will be very focused. The best line is -7 -109 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Houston Texans (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Line: Bills by 18. Total: 47.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen finally looked like the MVP candidate we expected to see in the first two games this year. Allen struggled to start the season, but caught fire against the Redskins. Washington had absolutely no answer for him despite applying a decent amount of pressure.

I don’t see what the Texans can do to limit Allen. Their Bradley Roby-less secondary is starting Vernon Hargreaves, which is just a disaster. Allen’s receivers will be able to get open easily. Meanwhile, the Houston pass rush is middling at best, though 2020 third-rounder Jonathan Greenard looked good in his season debut last week, so perhaps he’ll be able to pressure Allen. That said, the Redskins couldn’t even rattle Allen, so he’ll dominate this latest opponent.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Davis Mills struggled in his initial start versus the Panthers on Thursday night. The Texans barely generated any sort offense, accumulating just 193 net yards from scrimmage. They averaged only 3.9 yards per play, compared to Carolina’s 5.8 figure.

The coaching staff didn’t exactly give Mills the best chance to succeed. They constantly ran on first down even though they have no ground game to speak of, forcing Mills into unfavorable passing situations. If this happens again, the Bills will likely force Mills into multiple turnovers, repeating what happened to the Redskins this past week.

RECAP: Betting this game seems very unappealing to me. The Bills likely won’t be fully focused for the Texans because they have to battle the Chiefs next week. They’re coming off two big wins and will likely take Houston for granted. Besides, when you get a huge spread like this, something like a kickoff return touchdown or a fumble returned for a score could make it very difficult for the big favorite to cover.

So, do we take the Texans? No way. I have no interest in betting a terrible quarterback on an awful team, even if the opponent will be distracted. I’m going to select the Bills, but I’m not going to put any money on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There seems to be no interest in this game from the sharps, which doesn’t surprise me one bit. I’m not betting this one.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills have some injuries of note: Guard Jon Feliciano and safety Jordan Poyer were ruled out, while nickel corner Taron Johnson is unlikely to play. I would switch my pick to the Texans if they didn’t have a terrible rookie quarterback battling a great defensive-minded coach in Sean McDermott.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Despite the Bills missing three starters – Taron Johnson is out – the spread keeps climbing. Believe it or not, some of it is sharp action. That won’t convince me to the bet the Bills, so I wish the pros the best of luck. The line has risen to -18.5 in some sportsbooks, but you can still get -18 at BetUS and Bovada.