NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2021

Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)
Line: Rams by 4. Total: 54.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford has been incredible through three games with his new team, as he and Cooper Kupp have looked like they’ve been playing together for decades. Stafford just torched the Buccaneers, and he should be able to parlay that success into a great performance against Arizona.

The Cardinals, like the Buccaneers, are missing some personnel at cornerback, namely Malcolm Butler, who retired prior to Week 1. They have some liabilities in the secondary that Stafford will be able to exploit. Their only hope is having Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt generate lots of pressure, but Stafford is protected by one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.

Stafford may want to avoid Jones and Watt’s pressure by handing the ball off to Darrell Henderson, who is expected to return this week. The Cardinals have given up plenty of rushing yardage the past two weeks, so it wouldn’t surprise me if that continues in this contest.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals scored 31 points against the Jaguars, but only 24 came from the offense. They had just seven points at halftime, which was shocking because of how easy the matchup was. It just goes to show how important DeAndre Hopkins is to the offense. Hopkins played, but wasn’t 100 percent because he was dealing with an injury.

Hopkins will be healthier this week, but the matchup is much more difficult. The Rams have a stellar secondary that will limit Hopkins and Kyler Murray’s other weapons. Murray will pick up some first downs with his legs, but he’ll be dealing with lots of pressure from Aaron Donald and company.

Unlike Stafford, Murray won’t be able to lean on a ground attack. It’s a wasted down every time James Conner touches the ball, while Chase Edmonds is only effective as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: The Cardinals seem like they’re in a good spot. The Rams are coming off a huge win versus the Buccaneers, and they have to play on Thursday night this upcoming week versus the Seahawks. They could be distracted. Stafford didn’t even appear that interested in this game when talking to the Mannings on Monday night, as he seemingly had to convince himself that this was a tough matchup.

With that in mind, it shouldn’t shock you that the sharps are already betting the Cardinals. They’ve dropped the line down from +6 to +5, which is still higher than my projected spread of 4.5.

I should like the Cardinals as well, but I just can’t pull the trigger on a wager. The Rams have dominated this rivalry for years. Murray has never beaten the Rams, as they’ve just had his number. Sure, the Cardinals are better this year, but the Rams have done all that winning versus Arizona with Jared Goff at the helm.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Cardinals at +6, +5.5 and +5, but not so much at +4.5 yet. That could change, so if you want to bet Arizona, you might consider locking them in now.

SATURDAY NOTES: I almost switched my pick even though the sharps continued to bet the Cardinals at +4.5. My worry is the Arizona offensive line, which could be missing three offensive linemen this week. However, the Rams might be flat off their huge win versus the Buccaneers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps continue to pound the Cardinals, driving the line to +3.5. I don’t understand how they’re so confident in Arizona, considering how the Rams have dominated this matchup.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps, as mentioned, have been on the Cardinals at every number above 3.5. That’s the line in most sportsbooks, but Bovada has +4 available. I’m siding with the Cardinals, but there is concern with two of their offensive linemen sidelined.

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 52.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: When Russell Wilson scored 17 points on the Vikings in the first three drives last week, if you came to me and told me he wouldn’t have any more points the rest of the way, I would’ve asked how Wilson had gotten injured. It’s truly baffling that the Seahawks didn’t have any sort of offensive success in the second half.

Offensive line issues were the culprit against the Vikings. Already down center Ethan Pocic, the Seahawks were playing without right tackle Brandon Shell, who was ruled out prior to kickoff. This created a huge blocking issue that Minnesota was able to exploit. It’s unclear if Pocic and Shell will be available, but if one returns, Wilson should be able to operate a potent offense once again, especially given the 49ers’ cornerback situation. As mentioned in the opener, San Francisco lost two cornerbacks to injury early versus the Packers. Their absences will allow Wilson to have a huge performance.

The Seahawks also figure to have success running the ball. The 49ers have inexplicably struggled versus the rush this season. It’s unclear if Chris Carson will play, but Alex Collins will thrive if given the chance in this matchup.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Seahawks will be hoping that their offensive line issues will be resolved because they have some big problems on the other side of the ball. Their defense has been atrocious ever since halftime of the Tennessee game.

Things got worse early versus the Vikings when Kerry Hyder left early with an injury. Alton Robinson did a good job of applying pressure in relief of Hyder, so perhaps that injury can be a blessing in disguise. I still have no faith in Seattle generating pressure, however, which means their cornerbacks will struggle once again. They have no chance of covering Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. That said, it’s no guarantee that Jimmy Garoppolo will be able to deliver the ball to them consistently.

The Seahawks’ run defense is pitiful as well, which bodes well for the 49ers if they can get Elijah Mitchell back from his concussion. Unlike the slow Trey Sermon, who struggled versus Green Bay, Mitchell will be able to take advantage of this positive matchup.

RECAP: Once again, I love betting on elite quarterbacks off a loss. This didn’t work last week, but that was just a fluke. Wilson is still 25-13 against the spread following a defeat, excluding his rookie year.

Wilson will be at his best in this game against, presumably, a banged-up group of cornerbacks. If the 49ers continue to have issues at the position, Wilson will be unstoppable.

My only question with the Seahawks is the status of their offensive line. If one of Pocic or Shell returns to action, this will be a huge play. Stay tuned, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp money coming in on the Seahawks, so I may lock this in soon so I don’t miss out on all the +3s. I want to see an injury report first though.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not as comfortable betting the Seahawks now because they’re going to be missing two offensive linemen again. However, consider the situation with the 49ers: They’re going to be missing three of their top four cornerbacks versus Russell Wilson and his receivers. Meanwhile, there’s a good chance George Kittle will be sidelined. I’m betting the Seahawks, but at a slightly reduced unit count. The sharps, by the way, bet Seattle +3 very heavily.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: As mentioned, the sharps are betting the Seahawks, or at least they did at +3. I was hunting for a viable +3, and I found one at DraftKings (-125 vig). I’ll continue to wait for something better.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams are missing multiple players at a position, with the Seahawks down two offensive linemen (Ethan Pocic, Brandon Shell), and the 49ers down three of their top four cornerbacks (Jason Verrett, K’Waun Williams, Josh Norman). Both teams have strengths to take advantage of these absences, but I trust Russell Wilson to come up big following two consecutive losses. Seattle +3 -125 at DraftKings is gone (now -135), but Bookmaker has -126 available.

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)
Line: Broncos by 1. Total: 44.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens’ offensive line was a major question mark heading into this season, and things became worse for the unit when Ronnie Stanley suffered an injury. Stanley has missed the past two weeks, which hasn’t affected the Ravens in the win-loss column because of Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s fumble and the non-call on the delay of game that gave Justin Tucker a 66-yard attempt.

The Ravens haven’t battled a fierce pass rush without Stanley either. The Raiders hounded Lamar Jackson in the opener, but the Chiefs and Trey Flowers-less Lions couldn’t generate much pressure on Jackson. The Broncos will certainly do so, which could force Jackson into some mistakes. Jackson won’t be able to lean on his primary weapons either, given that the Broncos have outstanding personnel on this side of the ball to limit them.

Jackson will be able to scramble for some first downs, but this sort of strategy won’t be as potent as it was versus the Chiefs two weeks ago. Jackson won’t be as brazen in every game because it’s a 17-game regular season, and Vic Fangio will have his players prepared for this anyway.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Ravens were missing several defensive players last week because of a minor illness. They’ll get those players back this week to help counter the Broncos’ rushing attack. The Lions were able to move the chains via the ground game last week, but the Broncos may not have similar success.

The Ravens, however, don’t have a very good pass rush. They need to blitz to get to the quarterback, which could prove costly against Teddy Bridgewater and his talented play-makers. Denver just lost K.J. Hamler for the year, but the team still has Courtland Sutton, the improving Tim Patrick and Noah Fant at his disposal. These players should have success getting open versus Baltimore’s scheme.

It should also be noted that Bridgewater is lethal against the blitz. In his first two games, Bridgewater was a perfect 17-of-17 for 171 yards and four touchdowns against the blitz. Given that this is an important component to Baltimore’s game plan, I’d say that Bridgewater has the upper hand in this matchup.

RECAP: Getting Bridgewater versus a blitz-happy defense isn’t the only reason to love the Broncos this week. They are a completely disrespected team. No one is giving them any attention even though they’re 3-0. Sure, they haven’t beaten anyone, but they’ve demolished all of their opponents. They’re aware that they have their doubters though. Pro Vaccine Talk even slotted them 16th in their power rankings, which is completely absurd.

I love that Denver will be looking to prove itself in this contest. This is a huge statement game for the Broncos, while the Ravens will undoubtedly be celebrating their inexplicable win over the Lions.

Thanks to the public not evaluating the Broncos properly, we appear to be getting a terrific number. I made this spread Denver -3. I nearly went to -3.5. However, this line is a pick ’em or -1. Despite the line being correct, there’s a ton of public action coming in on the Ravens.

It’s likely that the Broncos will be one of my top plays of the week. I’m interested to see Baltimore’s injury report, but if Stanley and some defenders are sidelined again, this will be a five-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Broncos thus far, which isn’t a surprise, given how skewed this spread happens to be. That said, I’m worried about two of Denver’s offensive linemen missing practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: I liked the Broncos much more earlier in the week. Unfortunately, two of their offensive linemen could be sidelined. This isn’t a huge problem because they have good depth up front, but it’s not ideal. Meanwhile, the Ravens are dealing with more dire issues. They also will be missing at least two blockers, along with a possible third. They’ll be down one or two safeties, while Lamar Jackson was bothered by a back issue this week. I still like the Broncos because this is a statement game for them, and the spread isn’t correct, but the injuries on the offensive line scare me a bit.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Graham Glasgow and Dalton Risner will miss this game, which is a shame because I’d love the Broncos otherwise. I still like them, and so do the sharps.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Glasgow and Risner are sidelined, which is a shame because that spoils a big bet on the Broncos. I still like Denver though, but for just a couple of units. The best line I see is -2 -104 at Bookmaker. The sharps are on Denver.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Packers by 6.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is part of the Las Vegas series. I discuss my overbooked flight and my gripes with Las Vegas.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I tried to warn Steeler fans following the 2021 NFL Draft when they were excited about Najee Harris. It doesn’t matter who the running back is when his team can’t block. The Steelers cannot block. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. They’re opening up no holes for Harris, and they’re not keeping pass rushers out of the backfield for Ben Roethlisberger.

Roethlisberger has taken lots of heat for his poor performances thus far. He deserves some blame, but how can he possibly do anything behind his anemic front line? Za’Darius Smith is on injured reserve, so he won’t be around to hound Roethlisberger. However, Preston Smith can more than make up for it; he’s enjoying a terrific year.

Making matters worse for Roethlisberger, he might be missing multiple receivers. Diontae Johnson was sidelined last week, while JuJu Smith-Schuster left the game early with an injury. If it’s just Chase Claypool, the Packers will be able to erase him with Jaire Alexander’s excellent coverage.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Steelers also have problems with their defensive line. Already down Stephon Tuitt, they lost Tyson Alualu in the first half against the Raiders in Week 2. To compound the problem, T.J. Watt left the game shortly later. Watt didn’t play last week, which is why Pittsburgh’s defense looked pitiful in its attempt to stop the Bengals.

Watt appeared close to playing, so he could be back for this game. That would be huge, especially if the Packers are missing two offensive linemen again. They were down Elgton Jenkins versus the 49ers, so unless he returns, Watt and Melvin Ingram will be able to put plenty of pressure on Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers will always pose a threat, but if the Steelers can rattle him a bit with the pass rush, they can limit the Packer passing game. Remember, Rodgers was on fire last week because the 49ers were missing three of their top four cornerbacks. The Steelers don’t have such issues.

RECAP: There are some injury question marks entering this game. Will Watt play? What about Jenkins? How about Diontae Johnson and Smith-Schuster? These are some key players who could decide which team covers the spread.

If Watt and the receivers can suit up, I’ll likely be on the Steelers. The public is pounding the Packers because they don’t want anything to do with Pittsburgh, but it’s not like the Packers have been very good this year. They were blown out in the opener, then trailed the Lions at halftime. They beat the 49ers, but San Francisco was helpless when two of its cornerbacks left the game with injuries.

I’d like to sell high on the Packers, especially if they’re going to be down two blockers again versus Watt and the rest of the Pittsburgh pass rushers. However, that’ll change if the Steelers are missing multiple receivers or Watt. A lot can happen from now until Sunday morning, so check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: T.J. Watt was limited in Wednesday’s practice, so there’s a chance he’ll return this week. The Packers, conversely, didn’t have Sir Elgton Jenkins in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Watt is back, which is huge news. The Steelers are a completely different team with him. They won at Buffalo and were shutting down the Raiders prior to his injury. This doesn’t bode well for the Packers, who are down two offensive linemen. Furthermore, Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster will play. I love the Steelers this week, as they will do everything in their power to redeem themselves from last week’s embarrassing loss. The sharps are on Pittsburgh as well.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been on the Steelers at every number above +6, but not at +6 yet. I’m going to search for a viable +6.5 throughout the afternoon. I’ll be back around 3:30 with an update.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the sharps have been betting the Steelers above +6, so I’m going to get a +6.5 with -115 juice at Bovada. Pittsburgh will have most of its defense back in the lineup, so it should cover this high spread against a Packer team missing multiple offensive linemen.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Line: Buccaneers by 7. Total: 49.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Here it is: the big matchup we’ve all been waiting for. Tom Brady versus Bill Belichick. Whoever gets the better of the other in this game will permanently be known as the superior football person for the rest of eternity.

OK, maybe not. I believe this matchup is overhyped because the Buccaneers have superior talent on the roster, but I’m looking forward to seeing what Belichick has cooked up for Brady. I’d like to believe that he has some tricks up his sleeve to confuse Brady, but he always met with his quarterback and devised plans to win six Super Bowls together. Brady was in the meeting rooms as Belichick concocted strategies to beat Hall of Famers like Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner. While it’s possible that Belichick will have a new wrinkle for Brady, it’s more likely that Brady will know exactly what his former coach is trying to do.

Besides, it’s impossible to defend the embarrassment of riches Brady has at his disposal. The Rams didn’t have to worry about this because Antonio Brown was sidelined, while Rob Gronkowski missed most of the third quarter with an injury. Brady will be able to use his weapons to expose some of the liabilities the Patriots have on defense. He shouldn’t see much pressure either, which is something that gave him issues this past week. The Patriots don’t have an Aaron Donald.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: With Brady likely to score plenty of points, the Patriots will have to keep pace with the Buccaneers in a potential shootout. That wouldn’t be an ideal circumstance with most rookie quarterbacks, but of all the first-year signal-callers, Mac Jones has been the best one. Jones has been accurate thus far, and it’s not like he’s only tossing checkdowns. He targeted his receivers downfield with plenty of air yardage this past Sunday against the Saints.

Jones could have an easy matchup if Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean isn’t available. Already down Sean Murphy-Bunting, Tampa watched Dean get hurt. It was missing two of its top three cornerbacks for most of the Rams game, which allowed Matthew Stafford to go nuts. Jones is no Stafford, but I like his chances if the Buccaneers won’t have Dean available.

One thing that could hurt Jones is that he won’t be able to rely on his rushing attack. No one can run on the Buccaneers, so Damien Harris will be very limited. That was the case last week, however, and yet Jones still performed well. He threw two interceptions midway through the game, but both picks bounced off his receivers’ hands. Perhaps Jones’ teammates will be more careful with the football this time.

RECAP: Everyone and their evil stepmother is betting the Buccaneers. The wagering percentage on Tampa is astronomically high in what figures to be one of the most highly bet games of the year.

I’m going to fade the public and pick the Patriots. I just wish Brady weren’t coming off a loss, which is a big hang-up for me. Elite quarterbacks typically thrive following a defeat, and that happens to be the case for Brady, who is 47-21 after suffering a loss. He’ll obviously be very focused for this matchup as well.

That said, the Buccaneers could have a major personnel issue if Dean is sidelined. Their lack of strong cornerback play will make it likely that they can be victimized with a back-door cover, especially considering how high this spread happens to be. My unit count will depend on the injury report for that reason.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m sad to report that I’m dropping my unit count on this game because of the Richard Sherman signing. The Buccaneers no longer have a huge liability at cornerback, which was my primary reason for wanting to bet New England in the first place. If Sherman isn’t ready to play, this will remain a high wager. The sharps are betting the Patriots.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s such a shame that Richard Sherman signed with the Buccaneers because I thought the Patriots would be a nice bet with Tampa not having competent cornerback play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s confirmation Sherman will start. Unless he’s washed up, that ruins things for the Patriots.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to bet one unit on the Patriots. I’m not seeing an edge here outside of fading the public and siding with the sharps. This spread is a bit high as well, but I’m in no mood to bet heavily against Tom Brady in such a big game. The best line for the Buccaneers is +7 -120 at BetUS. If you like the Buccaneers, you can get -6.5 -107 at Bookmaker.

Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 51.5.
Monday, Oct. 4, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Diego, home of the famous San Diego Zoo, where Mother will take me for Christmas if I’m a good boy! Tonight, we have the Oakland Raiders battling the San Diego Chargers. Guys, is it just me, or does David Carr seem like a better quarterback this year? The last time I watched him, he was taking lots of sacks with the Houston Astros, and now he’s great! How did he do that!?

Emmitt: Toni, I think you have a confuse between David Carr and Dennis Carr, who are twin cousin. They has the same mother and brother, but different sister.

Reilly: Thanks, Emmitt, that makes more sense. Mother always says I’ll be a late bloomer in life, especially now that I’m in my late 60s, and I wondered if David Carr’s mother told him he would be a late bloomer, too.

Tollefson: Speaking of late bloomers, Kevin, there’s one sex slave in my dungeon who has been giving me fits. She wouldn’t cook and clean naked for me, no matter what I said, or how many times I whipped her. I was about to give up on her and throw her into the trash truck, but she finally began cooking and cleaning naked for me. I love late bloomers!

Reilly: No wonder we’re great friends, Tolly!

Joe Biden: Speaking of great friends, I was hanging out with some of my great friends at the pool hall back in the day. It was a great place to be with some great guys and great friends, and some of the great friends brought their young daughters to touch my hairy legs. One of the boys there did something bad, so I blew my whistle at him from the lifeguard stand and said, “Hey, Oliver, you gotta stop that.” Now, Oliver was a mean dude. He went by the name Jolly Rancher, and he didn’t take too kindly to me using his real name. So, he told me he was gonna fight me outside in the parking lot, and he had these big chains. But I wasn’t gonna be a coward, so I grabbed spaghetti sauce and brought it to him. I wasn’t standing down, but I told him I apologize for calling him Jolly Rancher, but not for being a naughty dude, and he said, “You really apologize?” And I said, “I’ll never call you Oliver again,” and now we’re the best of friends. He’s even bringing his young daughter to my house tomorrow.

Reilly: I wish people would bring their young daughters to my house so I can play video games with them, but Mother says I can’t make friends if I want to go to the San Diego Zoo.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, the San Diego Zoo is a great zoo, believe me, I know a lot about zoos, and it’s a great zoo. It’s the best zoo in the world, except for the zoo I have in my Florida resort, which is the best zoo anyone has ever seen, and everyone agrees. No one knows more about zoos than I do, even the San Diego Zoo zookeeper, who is a total disgrace, no one has ever seen anything like him. He knows that I have the best zoo, unlike his zoo, which is totally horrible compared to my zoo, and everyone I’ve asked says the same thing. They say, “Mr. President, you have the best zoo I’ve ever seen,” and I tell them, of course I do because no one knows more about zoos than I do, especially Sleepy Joe. Sleepy Joe knows nothing about zoos. He probably can’t tell the difference between a monkey and a horse. I have both at my zoo, and believe me, I paid very little for the monkeys and horses! Someone offered them to me for $1 million, but I said, no, that’s too much, how about $1.1 million? And we made a great deal, the greatest deal anyone could ever imagine.

Reilly: New Daddy, did you hear that!? Donald Trump’s zoo has monkeys and horses! New Daddy, can we go there instead of the San Diego Zoo instead!?

Jay Cutler: Oh, we’re in San Diego? I thought we were in Oakland.

Wolfley: WE’RE IN NEITHER SAN DIEGO NOR OAKLAND. ACCORDING TO MY STAR MAP, WE’RE IN THE 12TH VERTICAL OF THE CROSS SECTION OF THE SEVENTH AND 16TH DIMENSIONS. IT’S A GOOD THING WE’RE NOT IN THE CROSS SECTION OF THE SEVENTH AND 20TH DIMENSIONS BECAUSE THAT’S WHEN THE FAT MAN FLIES AWAY, AND CHEESE AND CHICKEN HAVE A BABY TOGETHER.

Reilly: I wonder if Donald Trump’s great zoo has chickens, too! I can’t wait to go with New Daddy and Mother to the Donald Trump Zoo!

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about zoo animals, Kevin, because your NFL knowledge is sorely lacking, Kevin. Let’s talk about zebras, Kevin. How about we delve into alligators, Kevin. What about hippos, Kevin? Don’t forget about kangaroos, Kevin. Why don’t we have a fireside chat about giraffes, Kevn? How about lions, Kevin? Lions are an NFL team, too, Kevin. Don’t forget about exotic birds, Kevin. Then there are rhinos, Kevin. And what about Kevin Reilly, Kevin? He belongs in a zoo, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I’M NOT AN ANIMAL, I’M A HUMAN BEING, AND I’M GOING TO BE A LATE BLOOMER LIKE MOTHER SAID, YOU’LL SEE! AND WHEN I BECOME THAT LATE BLOOMER, I WILL GET PAYBACK, SO YOU BETTER WATCH YOUR BACK! We’ll be back after this!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Both teams have a major injury question mark at the same position. For the Raiders, Casey Hayward hurt his leg against the Dolphins, so his status is unknown for this game. Hayward has been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this season, and I don’t need to tell you that his presence will be required to slow down Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

Williams has exploded this season because Justin Herbert has enjoyed more time in the pocket, thanks to his improved offensive line. The blockers will be tested in this game, as Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Williams have exploded as one of the NFL’s premier pass-rushing duos. They’ll be going against rookie Rashawn Slater, who has played well, and injured Bryan Bulaga’s replacement, Storm Norton, who has resembled a human turnstile. Norton will likely be a huge liability in this game, as the Raiders will be able to beat him and disrupt the Charger passing attack on occasion.

Herbert naturally will make good use of Austin Ekeler, whose role as a receiver out of the backfield has expanded after Week 1. I like Ekeler’s matchups against the mediocre Raider linebackers.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The injury question on this side of the ball is also the team’s top cornerback, as Chris Harris has missed the past two games. Given that Derek Carr has performed on an MVP level, Harris’ presence will be required.

And yes, Carr is playing on an MVP level at this moment. I can’t believe I’m writing this, and I don’t know how long it’ll last, but it’s a true statement. The Charger pass rush will test Carr, as he’s protected by one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Given that T.J. Watt missed most of Week 2, the Raiders haven’t battled a team with a strong pass rush yet, and that will change this week.

The Raiders still project to score plenty of points, however. If Josh Jacobs returns to action, he’ll see that he has an easy matchup against a defense that just permitted 100 rushing yards to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Charger linebackers have been weak to tight ends as well, so Darren Waller figures to have a big game.

RECAP: We’ll see what happens with the injury report, but at the moment, I like the Chargers because of their advantage with their pass rush going against the Raiders’ poor offensive line. Richie Incognito’s absence hasn’t cost the Raiders yet because, as mentioned, they haven’t battled a team with a strong pass rush yet. That’ll change this Monday night.

I don’t like that this spread has risen to -3.5, however. The sharps are responsible for that, but this worse number could prove costly because the Chargers winning by three is a very likely result of this game. Thus, my unit count will depend on whether we get a chance to bet on some sort of -3 like we did in the previous Monday night contest. Check back or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned that the sharps bet on the Chargers at -3. Well, other pros bet the Raiders at +3.5, so the “wise guys” are split on this game, which doesn’t really surprise me.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s still unclear if Chris Harris and Josh Jacobs will play. Meanwhile, Chargers linebacker Kenneth Murray suffered an injury Saturday, which will likely keep him out of this game. Given that, plus the fact that the fans will be packed with Raider fans, I’m going down to one unit.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No real update. I have a small bet planned for the Chargers, and barring some crazy injury news, I won’t change that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are torn on this game. Some pros like the Chargers at -3, while others bet the Raiders at +3.5. I’m with the former group, especially with the line being -3 in most places. It’s not ideal that Chris Harris is out again for the Chargers, but I still think they’re the right side because of the Raiders’ offensive line. The best line for the Chargers is -3 -111 at Bookmaker.