These are my 2021 NFL Betting Props. I’ve done well with these props over the past couple of years. My dollar count for win totals since 2014 is +$2,545. Here’s what I’m planning on betting this year (results will be added to the regular-season winnings/losses on the NFL Picks page after the Super Bowl is over):
Updated Jan. 22, 2022
2021 NFL Betting Props: Win Totals
Arizona Cardinals: Over 8.5 Wins This number is incredibly mispriced. I have the Cardinals going 12-5 in my NFL Season Previews. Arizona won eight games last year without major improvements to their offensive and defensive lines (Rodney Hudson, J.J. Watt). Kyler Murray will improve with superior protection and another year of experience. I think a case can be made that the Cardinals are a top-five NFL team.
Betting 6 Units (+117) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/27/21)
Betting 3 Units (O9.5 +195) to win 5.85 at Crica (locked in as of 7/27/21)
Atlanta Falcons: Under 7.5 Wins I made the mistake of betting the Falcons over last offseason. They went 4-12 last year, and now they don’t have Julio Jones. Matt Ryan, meanwhile, is another year older, and the defense hasn’t improved. I don’t understand why this number is so high, given that the Falcons are likely the 26th-29th best team in the NFL.
Betting 4 Units (+123) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/21/21)
Dallas Cowboys: Under 9.5 Wins I can’t fathom a reality in which the Cowboys finish 10-7 or better in 2021. Their defense is a disaster, while the offensive line has some major injury concerns. Dak Prescott will return, but there’s no telling if he’s 100 percent. Dallas is perennially overrated, and that’s once again the case. I will take advantage of that once more.
Betting 3 Units (+100) at William Hill (locked in as of 7/27/21)
Detroit Lions: Under 5 Wins Excluding the Texans, the Lions are likely the worst team in the NFL. Matthew Stafford has carried this franchise, but he’s no longer the quarterback. Jared Goff is a huge downgrade, and he doesn’t have starting-caliber receivers at his disposal. The defense, meanwhile, is still an abomination. I can’t see the Lions getting to six wins, especially with Aaron Rodgers apparently set to return for one more year.
Betting 4 Units (-107) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/27/21)
Houston Texans: Under 4 Wins The Texans are the worst team in the NFL. In fact, I don’t have them winning a single game in my season previews. They were 4-12 last year, and that was with Deshaun Watson, J.J. Watt and Will Fuller. Watt and Fuller are gone, while Watson is highly unlikely to play for Houston at all this year.
Betting 4 Units (-110) at MGM (locked in as of 7/27/21)
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 12.5 Wins The Chiefs have gone over their win total every single year during Andy Reid’s tenure. That will happen once again unless Patrick Mahomes suffers an injury. Given how motivated Mahomes will be following the Super Bowl defeat, as well as the energy the Chiefs put into improving his blocking, it’ll be shocking if Kansas City goes worse than 13-4.
Betting 4 Units (+126) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/27/21)
New Orleans Saints: Under 9 Wins Will Jameis Winston lead the Saints to a 10-7 record or better? I have my doubts, especially with Michael Thomas being sidelined. Throw in the fact that the Saints will be homeless for a while, and this wager is looking very promising.
Betting 3 Units (-135) at BetUS (locked in as of 9/3/21)
New York Giants: Under 7 Wins The Giants seem like a total dumpster fire right now. Daniel Jones was miserable in his sole preseason game, while Andrew Thomas resembled a human turnstile. Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay may not be 100 percent. I will lose this bet if the Giants get to 8-9, and I have my doubts that they can achieve that record.
Betting 3 Units (+105) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 9/3/21)
2021 NFL Betting Props: Super Bowl Odds
Arizona Cardinals: 50/1 The Cardinals remind me of the 2017 Eagles. That Philadelphia team had a young quarterback on a rookie deal, and because of that, it was able to have plenty of talent on the offensive and defensive lines to win in the trenches. The Cardinals improved their blocking by trading for Rodney Hudson, and they bolstered their defensive front with J.J. Watt. The Cardinals nearly made the playoffs last year, so I expect them to make a big jump in 2021. I think they’ll win 12-plus games, putting them in strong contention to play in Super Bowl LVI.
Betting 2 Units to win 100 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/27/21)
Buffalo Bills: 5.5/1 I didn’t know how to bet the Bills in the Buffalo-Kansas City game. We’re not getting a key number with them, and buying up to +3 is very pricey. However, I saw that the Bills were 5.5:1 to win the Super Bowl at Bovada, which seems like a decent deal. If the Bills can get by the Chiefs, I believe they’ll be the favorite to win the Super Bowl. They have the best defense and the hottest quarterback, so the argument could be made that they should be favored right now, though getting by Kansas City will be a challenge.
Betting 2 Units to win 11 at Bovada (locked in as of 1/22/22)
Denver Broncos: 55/1 I bet the Broncos at 55/1 at Circa during my time in Las Vegas. You can also get them at 42/1 at Bookmaker. Unfortunately, this was done when it seemed as though Denver would trade for Aaron Rodgers. This bet might now be dead, though a trade for Deshaun Watson might still be possible.
Betting 1 Unit to win 55 at Circa (locked in as of 7/27/21)
Kansas City Chiefs: 7.3/1 With a gun to my head, I’d say the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. They made great improvements to the offensive line, while Patrick Mahomes will be motivated after being embarrassed in the Super Bowl. That said, I’m still searching for a better number.
Update: I was hoping to find a better number in the wake of the Chiefs’ loss to the Ravens. You can get 7.3/1 at Bookmaker, which isn’t quite good enough.
Betting 2 Units to win TBA at TBA (never made this wager)
Los Angeles Rams: 15/1 The Rams have ventured deep into the playoffs with Jared Goff almost every year. Now, they have a huge upgrade at the position in Matthew Stafford. Los Angeles is arguably a top-three NFL team, so 15/1 seems like a nice bargain.
Betting 2 Units to win 30 at Circa (locked in as of 7/21/21)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7/1 As with the Chiefs, this is a hedge on my longer-shot bets. The Buccaneers may not be hungry after winning Super Bowl LV, but then again, Tom Brady could be a factor in altering that mentality. Tampa somehow retained every single starter, which is unprecedented for a defending Super Bowl champion.
Betting 2 Unit to win 14 at MGM (locked in as of 7/27/21)
2021 NFL Betting Props: Other
Arizona Cardinals to make playoffs: +185 I can’t believe the Cardinals are nearly 2:1 to miss the playoffs. That’s insane to me. I’ve talked up Arizona a ton already, so there’s not much more to say.
Betting 3 Units to win 5.55 at MGM (locked in as of 7/27/21)
Dallas Cowboys to miss playoffs: +125 If Saquon Barkley is healthy, I have the Cowboys as the third-best team in the crappy NFC East. This is not a playoff team, yet we’re getting plus money with this bet.
Betting 2 Units to win 2.5 at MGM (locked in as of 7/27/21)
Indianapolis Colts to win AFC South: +300 I bet the Titans to win the AFC South in late July. I’m going to hedge with the Colts at +300 to lock in profits. If the Colts beat the Texans, and the Titans lose to the Bills this week, Indianapolis will be one game behind Tennessee in the division, and the Colts will host the Titans later in the year for the chance to tie.
Betting 1 Unit to win 3 at BetUS (locked in as of 10/14/21)
Kansas City Chiefs to win AFC West: +107 I can’t believe the Chiefs are plus money to win the division when they’re only one game out of first place. If they beat the Titans this Sunday – they’re favored by 5.5 – there will no longer be a plus on this line.
Betting 2 Units to win 2.14 at BetUS (locked in as of 10/21/21)
Tennessee Titans to win AFC South: +115 Carson Wentz was just ruled out indefinitely. The Titans are currently +115 to win the AFC South at Bovada. If that disappears, you can get +105 at BetUS.
Betting 3 Units to win 3.45 at Bovada (locked in as of 7/30/21)
Washington Redskins to win NFC East: +225 While looking for Tennessee divisional odds, I found that the Redskins are +225 to win the NFC East at BetUS. That number is absurd because the Redskins are the best team in that division, and I’m not sure it’s even close.
Betting 3 Units to win 6.75 at BetUS (locked in as of 7/30/21)
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