NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2021

Cincinnati Bengals (11-7) at Tennessee Titans (12-5)
Line: Titans by 3.5. Total: 48.
Saturday, Jan. 9, 1:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 18 Analysis: Sunday was awesome. We hit all three of our picks, and we were up nearly 10 units for the week. And then, Monday night happened. The Cardinals were such a huge disappointment. We still made $10 for the week, but we could have enjoyed a monster Week 19. That never came to fruition because we can’t have good things during the 2021 season.

I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Raiders, 2 units (loss): This was a tough way to begin the playoffs. I think we had the right side. The Raiders outgained the Bengals and averaged more yards per play, but constantly shot themselves in the foot.

Buccaneers, 3 units (win): I don’t understand where all the pro-Eagles sentiment came from. This was a dream matchup for the Buccaneers.

Chiefs, 5 units (win): Things looked bleak halfway through the second quarter, but then everything made sense again. The Chiefs dominated this game. Double-digit playoff dogs remain without a cover since the Marshawn Lynch earthquake game.

Cardinals, 8 units (loss): I don’t understand Kliff Kingsbury’s game plan. Why did he have Kyler Murray operate like a statue quarterback in the pocket? How did Matthew Stafford have nearly quadruple the rushing yardage as Murray did? Arizona outgained the Rams in the prior two meetings, yet it looked like the worst team in the NFL on Monday night. What an embarrassment.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due very soon. My wife delivered our son, Conrad, nearly two weeks ago! Thanks so much to anyone who sent a congratulatory e-mail or comment! Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:



Imagine being so uninformed about football that you believed Dwayne Haskins processed information well. Also, we said the same thing about Blake Bortles and some other white quarterbacks, so that must make us racist against whites then.

Here’s a non-football matter:



You know, I tend to belittle hate mailers a lot, so I should give them credit when they realize they’ve been incorrect. Josh admitted that my non-football takes were great after all. It takes a lot of courage to admit you’re wrong, so let’s commend Josh for his bravery in that regard.

And finally, something on the Pick of the Month:



People are saying Kliff Kingsbury needs to be fired, but I am the one who needs to be canned as coach of the Cardinals for poorly preparing my team.

Someone else replied…



I assume this Logan person is saying I work for sportsbooks, but I can’t be 100-percent sure.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: For the first time since Week 8, Derrick Henry will be on the field. It’s not quite clear if he’ll be 100 percent coming off his injury, but his mere presence will open things up for the passing game. If Henry is his usual self, he’ll find success against a Cincinnati defense that lost Larry Ogunjboi to injury last weekend. Ogunjobi wasn’t the Bengals’ top defensive tackle, but his absence will make the team a bit worse against the run than it already was. The Bengals were a mediocre 13th in run defense DVOA, so they’ll likely be slightly below average now.

As mentioned, Henry will help the passing attack. It needed a boost because the Bengals are great at limiting No. 1 receivers. They struggle to cover other wideouts and tight ends, but they shut down top receivers because Chidobe Awuzie has been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL this season. This bodes well for the Bengals, as the Titans have just one dominant wideout, A.J. Brown. There’s also Julio Jones, but Jones has been a shell of his former self this year. The Titans also don’t really have the tight end talent to beat Cincinnati’s weakness.

It’ll help the Bengals if Trey Hendrickson is available to pressure Ryan Tannehill. Hendrickson’s potential absence would be much more significant than Ogunjobi’s. He’s an exceptional edge rusher, and it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to play.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We saw Joe Burrow generate amazing pass performances down the stretch of the regular season. He had some extremely favorable matchups because he was going up against teams that blitz frequently. Burrow carves up the blitz, so he’ll be disappointed to be matched up against Tennessee, a team that applies heavy pressure on the quarterback while not blitzing very much. In fact, only four teams blitz less often than the Titans.

However, this doesn’t mean that Burrow won’t have success. The Titans have some liabilities in the secondary that can be exposed by the Bengals’ prolific receivers. I just don’t see how Tennessee will be able to cover Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. The Titans are especially weak to slot receivers, so Boyd could have a big game.

The Titans also have to worry about Joe Mixon, of course. Mixon didn’t get much against a Raider defense that is strong against the run. The Titans rank a bit lower in rush defense DVOA, so Mixon figures to have a better performance this week.

RECAP: There were no advance spreads for this game for obvious reasons, but if there were, I believe we would have seen Tennessee -2. I base this off the Titans being -3.5 against the Dolphins – I have Cincinnati as being 3.5 points better than Miami, and then I gave the Titans two points for Henry’s return – so if I’m right, we’re getting great line value with the Bengals. This line is now the same as what the Titans were favored by over the Dolphins. I know Henry being back plays a role in changing that, but even when considering Henry’s status, this spread shouldn’t be identical.

Henry, of course, isn’t the only injury concern. Hendrickson and Ogunjobi both got hurt versus the Raiders. However, Hendrickson has a chance of suiting up, and if he does, the Bengals will be fine.

Assuming Hendrickson plays, the Bengals look like the right side. This figures to be a close game, so getting both threes is important. Also, the Titans don’t handle the role of the favorite very well while under Mike Vrabel. They cover at a much higher rate as an underdog, but they often don’t meet expectations when people think they’re going to win. The Bengals, meanwhile, went toe to toe with the Chiefs in their most recent game as an underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Hendrickson will play, which is crucial to Cincinnati’s success. Despite this, the line hasn’t moved at all. I think there’s a good chance this spread will move to +3, so I’m going to lock in the +3.5 -110 at Bovada/BetUS.

SATURDAY NOTES: I feel pretty salty about locking in the +3.5 because this line has moved to +4, thanks to sharp action on Tennessee. Perhaps the pros like the Titans upon hearing the news that Derrick Henry won’t have a snap count.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has remained at +4, as the sharps bet the Titans at -2, -2.5, -3 and -3.5, but not -4. I still like the Bengals; this line is now higher than Dolphins at Titans in Week 17, which is absurd. Granted, Derrick Henry is playing, but I don’t think this line should be above -3. The best spread is +4 -110 at Bovada, BetUS and FanDuel, but I locked this in at +3.5.

San Francisco 49ers (11-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-4)
Line: Packers by 6. Total: 47.5.
Saturday, Jan. 9, 4:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views (one even had 100,000!), so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Reader 2021 NFL Draft Grades for Each Pick

Reader 2016 NFL Draft Re-Grades

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If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

Jax NFL Mock Draft

Brock16 NFL Mock Draft

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The 49ers suffered a pair of key injuries during their win over the Cowboys. Nick Bosa left the game with a concussion, and then Fred Warner was holding his leg in pain during the second half. Fortunately for the 49ers, it sounds as though both have a chance of playing in this game.

This is obviously extremely significant. Bosa and Warner are two of the best defensive players in the NFL. The former will be extremely significant in this matchup, as putting heavy pressure on Aaron Rodgers will be required to slow down Green Bay’s scoring attack. The Packers don’t have the best offensive line – even with David Bakhtiari returning – so Bosa will be able to put some heat on Rodgers. This will help the secondary, which has become stronger in recent weeks with Emmanuel Moseley coming back from injury. Still, it’ll be impossible to contain Davante Adams when Rodgers has time in the pocket.

The 49ers will definitely clamp down on the run, especially if Warner is able to take the field. San Francisco’s rush defense is excellent, so I wouldn’t expect Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to thrive. This is something to consider if the Packers open up a big lead. They won’t be able to run out the clock effectively with Jones and Dillon, which would give the 49ers a chance at a back-door cover.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: My good friend Tom, a devoted Packers fan, told me back in November, “I just hope we don’t play the 49ers in the playoffs. They have our number.” Indeed, San Francisco has whipped up on Green Bay in most recent meetings. There’s good reason for this, given that the 49ers match up very well against the Packers.

Green Bay’s greatest weakness is its inability to stop the run. That happens to be the strength of the San Francisco offense. The 49ers rammed the ball down Dallas’ throat with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel, and it’ll be able to do the same thing this weekend.

The Packers’ defensive strength is putting the clamps on outside receivers. However, they’re extremely weak to tight ends. This is another reason San Francisco has a positive outlook. George Kittle figures to dominate. There’s some concern with Jimmy Garoppolo’s throwing shoulder, but he will be practicing this week.

RECAP: This is the most incorrect spread of the week. Nothing I’m seeing justifies the Packers being favored by six points. My numbers say Green Bay -3 is correct. The computer model is less bearish on the 49ers, but still has a projected -4. The DVOA numbers are most interesting. The 49ers are actually ranked higher than the Packers in DVOA, making this spread Green Bay -1.5.

But that’s not all. Consider the spread back in Week 3. The 49ers hosted the Packers and were -3.5. Moving this over two points and adding a half point for the bye, that would make the correct line San Francisco -1!

The 49ers have some concern with injuries, but it’s sounding like Bosa and Warner will play. If so, the 49ers will be my top play of the week. The Packers have been overrated all year, and there’s a chance we might be able to get every single key number with the 49ers except for seven.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nick Bosa practiced fully on Friday. The same applies to Jimmy Garoppolo. Fred Warner is not on the injury report. Meanwhile, the Packers won’t have Marquez Valdes-Scantling, while David Bakhtiari didn’t practice Thursday. The sharps moved this line to +5.5. You can still get +6 -117 at Bookmaker, which I’m going to lock in now before this spread continues to fall.

SATURDAY NOTES: Here’s a pick I’m glad I locked in early because the sharps have driven this line down to +5 in some sportsbooks. Nick Bosa cleared concussion protocol, so that might be the reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Despite this line moving down, Bookmaker still has +6 -111 available, which is frustrating. Still, it won’t matter if the 49ers keep this game close, which is what the sharps are betting will happen. With David Bakhtiari out, I love San Francisco in this spot.