NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2021

Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4)
Line: Buccaneers by 2.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 1:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

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A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Netflix Christmas movies. I break down some stupid Netflix Christmas movies I watched with my wife.

Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop last year. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL over the past several weeks. This includes Monday night, when Matthew Stafford threw just 17 times. This has been done to mask Stafford’s back problems. Stafford was diagnosed with chronic back issues during the middle of the season and hasn’t really been the same since.

Cam Akers and Sony Michel trampled over the Cardinals’ defense to give Stafford some great play-action opportunities. That won’t happen in this game, as Tampa Bay has an elite ground defense. Akers and Michel will get nothing on the ground, nullifying Stafford’s play-action chances.

Stafford will have to beat the Buccaneers on his own, which will be an issue if his back flares up again. We saw this happen late in the season when Stafford threw a ton of interceptions. We could see that happen again because he’ll be forced to win this game on his own.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Things looked bleak for the Buccaneers in the first half against the Eagles. Not because they were going to lose the game; but rather as a resut of two of their offensive linemen suffering injuries. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs was already knocked out of the game when center Ryan Jensen got hurt. Luckily for the Buccaneers, Jensen returned to action, and it’s sounding like Wirfs will be able to play this week.

Assuming Wirfs is on the field, the Buccaneers will be able to protect Tom Brady, which is something that the Cardinals could not do for Kyler Murray. You’d think that Murray would counter this by scrambling, but that is way too logical of a thought process. At any rate, Brady will have time to expose the Rams’ secondary, which is down its top two safeties.

Brady, of course, is missing two of his top three receivers. However, the Rams, down their two best safeties, won’t be as effective against tight ends. They also struggle at defending running backs as receivers out of the backfield, which will obviously benefit the Buccaneers.

RECAP: Overreaction, much? There was an advance spread on this game, which was Tampa Bay -4. Yet, because of what transpired Monday night, the Buccaneers are down -3.

This is a huge move because we’ve reached the key number of three. It’s completely unwarranted, however. The line movement occurred because of the Rams’ blowout, but I feel like every single team in the NFL would’ve defeated Arizona, including the Jaguars and Giants, based on how horrible of a game plan Kliff Kingsbury prepared. His decision to allow Stafford to have quadruple the rushing yardage as Murray was ridiculous. It’s unclear why Kingsbury wanted Murray to play like Drew Bledsoe, a statue quarterback who held the ball in the pocket for an eternity back in the 90s and early 00s, but the game plan didn’t pan out.

Because Kingsbury’s game plan failed, this has warped the perception of the Rams, who still have major flaws. I still have question marks about Stafford’s back. Meanwhile, the Rams are still missing their two starting safeties, so it’ll be difficult for them to cover Brady’s weapons. Brady is also protected well – assuming Wirfs plays – so the strength of the Rams will be neutralized. That includes the offensive side of the ball as well, given that Tampa Bay will put the clamps on the Rams’ running backs.

If Wirfs plays, I’ll be betting the Buccaneers heavily. I love this matchup and revenge spot for them, but most of all, the spread value is incredibly appealing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Jensen haven’t practiced yet this week. If both are out, I may consider switching over to the Rams.

SATURDAY NOTES: Andrew Whitworth has been declared out. This would’ve moved the line in Tampa Bay’s favor, but we still don’t know the statuses of the two Buccaneer offensive linemen.

FINAL THOUGHTS: With Tristan Wirfs sidelined and Ryan Jensen banged up, I’m going to drop my unit count to three. I still like the Buccaneers though. Matthew Stafford is not healthy, and he won’t have his best offensive lineman either. Tampa can eliminate the Rams’ rushing attack, which will force a hobbled Stafford to beat them. I just wish Tom Brady had all of his blockers. If you’re betting the Buccaneers with me, I’d recommend buying down to -2.5, which can be done at Bookmaker (-119) or BetUS (-120). The sharps bet the Rams at +3, but not at +2.5.

Buffalo Bills (12-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 54.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 4:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where tonight, the Buffalo Sabres take on the Kansas Chiefs. Guys, I got a letter from Roger Goodell saying that one more strike and I’m out because they keep hearing that I call him a farter even though those are fake e-mails. Trust me, the only e-mails I answer are from pretty girls from Africa who need me to send money to them. I’d do it, but Mother won’t let me use her credit card!

Emmitt: Sang-woo Eomma, I thinked there was something fishy about these situation especially when a princess from the city of Africa reach out to myselves because her father got killed by Storm Troopers in a coup at her palace. I tolded her I am not getting fool by a scan artist, but it turn out she was telling the truthful, and the Storm Trooper kill her, so I have blood on my heads.

Reilly: That’s exactly why I need Mother’s credit card, ASAP!

Tollefson: Kevin, if you get me your mother’s credit card, I’ll be able to triple the money you lend to me in just 24 hours. THis will involve engaging in the buying and selling of naked female slaves, mind you.

Reilly: I don’t care either way, just as long as I don’t look at the naked female slaves; otherwise Mother will wash my eyes out with soap because she says they’re too innocent for naked girls. But I should say, Tolly, that once I get Mother’s credit card and pay the women e-mailers, I will spend the rest on my legal team. I’ve decided to hire a wise Latina to help me with my case against Roger Goodell,

Sonia Sotomayor: Yes, Kevin, I will defend you against Roger Goodell. It’s come to my attention that you are being accused of calling Roger Goodell a farter. There is no doubt that this is serious business. There are currently 54.5 million children who have been hospitalized for farting.

Reilly: Who cares about them!? I just need everyone to know that I didn’t call Goodell a farter and that I would do anything for him unless he allows my Philadelphia Eagles to lose!

Sotomayor: According to my data, your Philadelphia Eagles have lost 50,000 games this year.

Reilly: No they didn’t, shut up! You don’t know anything about football and my Philadelphia Eagles, so you’re a lo-, hey, everyone, it’s Adam Schefter! He shape shifted from my microphone into his usual bodily form!

Schefter: Thanks, Kevin, I learned shape-shifting abilities from the Founders in the Dominion, and I have put them to good use in order to avoid the very deadly Onicron variant! You cannot catch Omnicron while in shape-shifting form, so I was safe and didn’t need to get tested, though I will undergo 511 tests after this segment. Guys, I can confirm this news, with Mike Mayock giving me his blessing before he was fired. Here’s a new e-mail I intercepted from Kevin Reilly: “Hey, lady from Africa, do you know who the biggest farter is in the world? It’s Roger Goodell. He’s such a flaming farter that he takes farts up the butt.”

Reilly: I did not send Eunice that e-mail! Someone is framing me!

Joe Biden: Framing is an important job for the, you know, you know the thing that I ran for, the thing, the Senate. We would frame people all the time and send them to prison if they got in our way. It reminds me of when I used to work at West Coast Video growing up. I used to dress up as Santa Claus so all the young girls would sit on my lap, and when the thing, you know the thing, the thing that all men have and it becomes a long stick sometimes, when my thing was a large stick, and the young girls used to tell my boss, I would frame the guy rewinding all the tapes. He went by the name of Boo-Berry.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, Sleepy Joe says he’s friends with Boo-Berry, but this is not true. I’m Boo-Berry’s best friend, and Sleepy, Creepy Joe is Boo-Berry’s worst friend, everyone agrees. Trust me, everyone believes Boo-Berry is my best friend, and everyone agrees because they know that we’re best friends and everyone agrees. Now, let’s talk about Count Chocula. What a total disaster. Count Chocula believes he has chocolate in his cereal. He has maybe a little bit of chocolate, but not nearly enough. I even have more chocolate than Count Chocula, and I’m not even a chocolate cereal figure. Count Chocula is a total disaster, and everyone agrees!

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU CAN TAKE YOUR OPINION ON COUNT CHOCULA AND SHOVE IT UP YOUR BUTT. COUNT CHOCULA IS A PROUD CITIZEN OF MY HOME PLANET, AND HE HAS SO MUCH SAUCE ON THE BALLS THAT HE LOOKS LIKE A NAIL CLIPPER WITH FOUR EYES AND A FIVE-FOOT TONGUE.

Reilly: What are you morons talking about? I need to stop people from spreading fake rumors about me, especially with New Daddy not doing anything to help.

Jay Cutler: Yeah, I got more important things to do like pretty much anything else.

Reilly: New Daddy would help me, but- hey, Roger Goodell, please don’t tell me you’re here to fire me!

Goodell: As a hu-man, my feelings were hurt when I was called – processing – farter. See, I have emotions like all other hu-mans, so I am hu-man as well. If I were not a hu-man, would I have been able to consume all 3,645 M&Ms in my basement jar for the meal that hu-mans call breakfast? If I were not a hu-man, I could not consume all 3,645 M&Ms for what you hu-mans call breakfast. Now that Goodell has proven that he is a hu-man, he will announce that the hu-man named Kevin Reilly will be terminated.

Reilly: Yeah, right! I have Supreme Court justices protecting me, Goodell! They’ll be able to use old cases as precedent so I won’t get fired! Trust me, I watched Law & Order recently with Mother saying I’m finally old enough to watch it, and I know what precedent is!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about crime TV shows, Kevin, specifically Law & Order, Kevin. Let’s discuss the other types of Law & Orders, Kevin. What about Special Victims Unit, Kevin? SVU stands for Special Victims Unit, Kevin. How about Organized Crime, Kevin? What do you think about Criminal Intent, Kevin? Let’s do a deep dive of Trial by Jury, Kevin. How about a simple breakdown of LA, Kevin? Care to tell me about your thoughts regarding True Crime, Kevin? Let’s hear your take on Hate Crimes, Kevin. Let’s discuss For the Defense, Kevin. You know what I just realized, Kevin? You can’t watch any of those other versions, Kevin, because your mommy thinks they’re too scary for you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I TOLD YOU IN CONFIDENCE THAT I WET THE BED WHENEVER I WATCH SCARY TV SHOWS LIKE THOSE! AFTER MY LAWSUIT AGAINST GOODELL, I’M COMING AFTER YOU, AND WHEN I WIN, I WILL SEIZE ALL OF YOUR BOBBLEHEADS! We’ll be back after this!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen played a perfect game last week against Bill Belichick, of all defensive coaches. He misfired just four times and threw five touchdowns. The Bills scored a touchdown every single time they had the football, save for the final drive that featured kneeldowns.

Allen went nuts against the Chiefs earlier in the year as well, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns and also rushing for 59 yards and another score. Kansas City had no answer for him, losing 38-20. However, that Chiefs defense was not the same as the current unit. They added some pass rushers through injury changes and an acquisition, which allowed them to move Chris Jones into the interior. Jones didn’t even play in the loss to Buffalo, as he, Willie Gay and Charvarius Ward were some of the key defenders who were sidelined.

The Chiefs will be able to apply some pressure on Allen, so I would not expect a touchdown drive on every possession once again. However, consider two other things: One, unless Allen decides to mimic Kyler Murray and aspire to play like Drew Bledsoe, he’ll be able to dance circles around the Kansas City defenders. Two, Devin Singletary has evolved into a more capable back. The Bills didn’t have much of a running game in that earlier matchup, so Singletary could thrive against the Chiefs’ mediocre rush defense.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes did not perform well in that 38-20 defeat. He threw for 272 yards, but it took him 54 attempts and garbage time to get there. The Bills have an exceptional pass defense, and only one quarterback, Tom Brady, has had success against it this year.

However, Buffalo’s defense has changed since the early stages of the regular season. Tre’Davious White is not available due to injury, and he was certainly missed in the loss to the Buccaneers. Mahomes should be able to exploit this matchup, so I expect him to perform better than he did in the first meeting.

The Bills are at their weakest when it comes to stopping the run. The Patriots didn’t get a chance to take advantage of this last weekend because of Buffalo’s quick, early lead. The Chiefs might be able to succeed at rushing the ball with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, Jerrick McKinnon, Derrick Gore, or whichever back they decide to feature in this contest.

RECAP: If Allen plays like he did against the Patriots, the Bills will not lose in the playoffs. How often, however, does a team play a perfect game and then regress to the mean the following week? I’ll be shocked if Buffalo scores a touchdown on every single possession once again.

I’ll also be surprised if the Chiefs play as poorly as they did against Buffalo back in Week 5. The Chiefs’ Jones-less defense was miserable back then, but has made some serious upgrades. They can generate good pressure on the quarterback, which will make it difficult for Allen to be as successful as he was in that contest. Meanwhile, the Bills won’t have White in the rematch, which seems significant against Mahomes.

Given that the Bills struggled to put away the Falcons and Jets down the stretch in the regular season, I have to believe that if there were an advance spread, it would have been Kansas City -3 or perhaps even -3.5. However, because of Buffalo’s perfect game, this line is now on the other side of three.

It’s a shame that we lost our line value because I like the Bills. I’d love them at +3 or greater, but they’re not nearly as appealing at +2.5. The two most likely results of this game, in my opinion, are the Bills and Chiefs winning by three, in some order. We’re only getting one of those results with whichever side we take.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay was arrested, which may have prompted a bit of sharp action to come in on the Bills. This line moved closer to pick ’em.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m thinking about betting the Bills to win the Super Bowl. I’ve seen something close to 4.5:1, which seems too low, considering the Bills have the best defense and the hottest quarterback in the field.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Bills all week, but some pro money came in on the Chiefs at the end. I still like Buffalo a bit, but the number sucks. I’m going to bet a unit on the Bills at +3 -135 at Bookmaker. I also bet Buffalo to win the Super Bowl, so that’s part of this wager; the Bills will be the heavy favorite if they prevail in this game.