NFL Picks (Week 1, 2021): 7-9 (-$1,320)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2021): 7-9 (-$2,340)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2021): 8-8 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2021): 12-4 (+$1,400)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2021): 5-10-1 (-$1,770)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2021): 7-7 (+$1,025)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2021): 6-7 (-$455)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2021): 5-10 (-$1,210)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2021): 8-6 (+$660)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2021): 9-5 (+$675)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2021): 7-8 (-$595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2021): 7-7-1 (-$175)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2021): 7-7 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2021): 5-9 (-$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2021): 10-6 (+$60)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2021): 10-6 (+$170)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2021): 10-6 (-$590)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2021): 8-8 (+$245)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2021): 4-2 (+$10)
2021 NFL Picks: 148-139-2 (-$5,355)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Jan. 23, 2:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 20 NFL Picks – Early Games
Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4)
Line: Buccaneers by 2.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 1:05 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!
You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Netflix Christmas movies. I break down some stupid Netflix Christmas movies I watched with my wife.
Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop last year. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL over the past several weeks. This includes Monday night, when Matthew Stafford threw just 17 times. This has been done to mask Stafford’s back problems. Stafford was diagnosed with chronic back issues during the middle of the season and hasn’t really been the same since.
Cam Akers and Sony Michel trampled over the Cardinals’ defense to give Stafford some great play-action opportunities. That won’t happen in this game, as Tampa Bay has an elite ground defense. Akers and Michel will get nothing on the ground, nullifying Stafford’s play-action chances.
Stafford will have to beat the Buccaneers on his own, which will be an issue if his back flares up again. We saw this happen late in the season when Stafford threw a ton of interceptions. We could see that happen again because he’ll be forced to win this game on his own.
TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Things looked bleak for the Buccaneers in the first half against the Eagles. Not because they were going to lose the game; but rather as a resut of two of their offensive linemen suffering injuries. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs was already knocked out of the game when center Ryan Jensen got hurt. Luckily for the Buccaneers, Jensen returned to action, and it’s sounding like Wirfs will be able to play this week.
Assuming Wirfs is on the field, the Buccaneers will be able to protect Tom Brady, which is something that the Cardinals could not do for Kyler Murray. You’d think that Murray would counter this by scrambling, but that is way too logical of a thought process. At any rate, Brady will have time to expose the Rams’ secondary, which is down its top two safeties.
Brady, of course, is missing two of his top three receivers. However, the Rams, down their two best safeties, won’t be as effective against tight ends. They also struggle at defending running backs as receivers out of the backfield, which will obviously benefit the Buccaneers.
RECAP: Overreaction, much? There was an advance spread on this game, which was Tampa Bay -4. Yet, because of what transpired Monday night, the Buccaneers are down -3.
This is a huge move because we’ve reached the key number of three. It’s completely unwarranted, however. The line movement occurred because of the Rams’ blowout, but I feel like every single team in the NFL would’ve defeated Arizona, including the Jaguars and Giants, based on how horrible of a game plan Kliff Kingsbury prepared. His decision to allow Stafford to have quadruple the rushing yardage as Murray was ridiculous. It’s unclear why Kingsbury wanted Murray to play like Drew Bledsoe, a statue quarterback who held the ball in the pocket for an eternity back in the 90s and early 00s, but the game plan didn’t pan out.
Because Kingsbury’s game plan failed, this has warped the perception of the Rams, who still have major flaws. I still have question marks about Stafford’s back. Meanwhile, the Rams are still missing their two starting safeties, so it’ll be difficult for them to cover Brady’s weapons. Brady is also protected well – assuming Wirfs plays – so the strength of the Rams will be neutralized. That includes the offensive side of the ball as well, given that Tampa Bay will put the clamps on the Rams’ running backs.
If Wirfs plays, I’ll be betting the Buccaneers heavily. I love this matchup and revenge spot for them, but most of all, the spread value is incredibly appealing.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Jensen haven’t practiced yet this week. If both are out, I may consider switching over to the Rams.
SATURDAY NOTES: Andrew Whitworth has been declared out. This would’ve moved the line in Tampa Bay’s favor, but we still don’t know the statuses of the two Buccaneer offensive linemen.
FINAL THOUGHTS: With Tristan Wirfs sidelined and Ryan Jensen banged up, I’m going to drop my unit count to three. I still like the Buccaneers though. Matthew Stafford is not healthy, and he won’t have his best offensive lineman either. Tampa can eliminate the Rams’ rushing attack, which will force a hobbled Stafford to beat them. I just wish Tom Brady had all of his blockers. If you’re betting the Buccaneers with me, I’d recommend buying down to -2.5, which can be done at Bookmaker (-119) or BetUS (-120). The sharps bet the Rams at +3, but not at +2.5.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Rams.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -4.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -2.5.
DVOA Spread: Buccaneers -1.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 59% (164,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
Week 20 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27, Rams 20
Buccaneers -2.5 -119 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$355
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 30, Buccaneers 27
Buffalo Bills (12-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 54.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 4:40 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where tonight, the Buffalo Sabres take on the Kansas Chiefs. Guys, I got a letter from Roger Goodell saying that one more strike and I’m out because they keep hearing that I call him a farter even though those are fake e-mails. Trust me, the only e-mails I answer are from pretty girls from Africa who need me to send money to them. I’d do it, but Mother won’t let me use her credit card!
Emmitt: Sang-woo Eomma, I thinked there was something fishy about these situation especially when a princess from the city of Africa reach out to myselves because her father got killed by Storm Troopers in a coup at her palace. I tolded her I am not getting fool by a scan artist, but it turn out she was telling the truthful, and the Storm Trooper kill her, so I have blood on my heads.
Reilly: That’s exactly why I need Mother’s credit card, ASAP!
Tollefson: Kevin, if you get me your mother’s credit card, I’ll be able to triple the money you lend to me in just 24 hours. THis will involve engaging in the buying and selling of naked female slaves, mind you.
Reilly: I don’t care either way, just as long as I don’t look at the naked female slaves; otherwise Mother will wash my eyes out with soap because she says they’re too innocent for naked girls. But I should say, Tolly, that once I get Mother’s credit card and pay the women e-mailers, I will spend the rest on my legal team. I’ve decided to hire a wise Latina to help me with my case against Roger Goodell,
Sonia Sotomayor: Yes, Kevin, I will defend you against Roger Goodell. It’s come to my attention that you are being accused of calling Roger Goodell a farter. There is no doubt that this is serious business. There are currently 54.5 million children who have been hospitalized for farting.
Reilly: Who cares about them!? I just need everyone to know that I didn’t call Goodell a farter and that I would do anything for him unless he allows my Philadelphia Eagles to lose!
Sotomayor: According to my data, your Philadelphia Eagles have lost 50,000 games this year.
Reilly: No they didn’t, shut up! You don’t know anything about football and my Philadelphia Eagles, so you’re a lo-, hey, everyone, it’s Adam Schefter! He shape shifted from my microphone into his usual bodily form!
Schefter: Thanks, Kevin, I learned shape-shifting abilities from the Founders in the Dominion, and I have put them to good use in order to avoid the very deadly Onicron variant! You cannot catch Omnicron while in shape-shifting form, so I was safe and didn’t need to get tested, though I will undergo 511 tests after this segment. Guys, I can confirm this news, with Mike Mayock giving me his blessing before he was fired. Here’s a new e-mail I intercepted from Kevin Reilly: “Hey, lady from Africa, do you know who the biggest farter is in the world? It’s Roger Goodell. He’s such a flaming farter that he takes farts up the butt.”
Reilly: I did not send Eunice that e-mail! Someone is framing me!
Joe Biden: Framing is an important job for the, you know, you know the thing that I ran for, the thing, the Senate. We would frame people all the time and send them to prison if they got in our way. It reminds me of when I used to work at West Coast Video growing up. I used to dress up as Santa Claus so all the young girls would sit on my lap, and when the thing, you know the thing, the thing that all men have and it becomes a long stick sometimes, when my thing was a large stick, and the young girls used to tell my boss, I would frame the guy rewinding all the tapes. He went by the name of Boo-Berry.
Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, Sleepy Joe says he’s friends with Boo-Berry, but this is not true. I’m Boo-Berry’s best friend, and Sleepy, Creepy Joe is Boo-Berry’s worst friend, everyone agrees. Trust me, everyone believes Boo-Berry is my best friend, and everyone agrees because they know that we’re best friends and everyone agrees. Now, let’s talk about Count Chocula. What a total disaster. Count Chocula believes he has chocolate in his cereal. He has maybe a little bit of chocolate, but not nearly enough. I even have more chocolate than Count Chocula, and I’m not even a chocolate cereal figure. Count Chocula is a total disaster, and everyone agrees!
Wolfley: DONALD, YOU CAN TAKE YOUR OPINION ON COUNT CHOCULA AND SHOVE IT UP YOUR BUTT. COUNT CHOCULA IS A PROUD CITIZEN OF MY HOME PLANET, AND HE HAS SO MUCH SAUCE ON THE BALLS THAT HE LOOKS LIKE A NAIL CLIPPER WITH FOUR EYES AND A FIVE-FOOT TONGUE.
Reilly: What are you morons talking about? I need to stop people from spreading fake rumors about me, especially with New Daddy not doing anything to help.
Jay Cutler: Yeah, I got more important things to do like pretty much anything else.
Reilly: New Daddy would help me, but- hey, Roger Goodell, please don’t tell me you’re here to fire me!
Goodell: As a hu-man, my feelings were hurt when I was called – processing – farter. See, I have emotions like all other hu-mans, so I am hu-man as well. If I were not a hu-man, would I have been able to consume all 3,645 M&Ms in my basement jar for the meal that hu-mans call breakfast? If I were not a hu-man, I could not consume all 3,645 M&Ms for what you hu-mans call breakfast. Now that Goodell has proven that he is a hu-man, he will announce that the hu-man named Kevin Reilly will be terminated.
Reilly: Yeah, right! I have Supreme Court justices protecting me, Goodell! They’ll be able to use old cases as precedent so I won’t get fired! Trust me, I watched Law & Order recently with Mother saying I’m finally old enough to watch it, and I know what precedent is!
Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about crime TV shows, Kevin, specifically Law & Order, Kevin. Let’s discuss the other types of Law & Orders, Kevin. What about Special Victims Unit, Kevin? SVU stands for Special Victims Unit, Kevin. How about Organized Crime, Kevin? What do you think about Criminal Intent, Kevin? Let’s do a deep dive of Trial by Jury, Kevin. How about a simple breakdown of LA, Kevin? Care to tell me about your thoughts regarding True Crime, Kevin? Let’s hear your take on Hate Crimes, Kevin. Let’s discuss For the Defense, Kevin. You know what I just realized, Kevin? You can’t watch any of those other versions, Kevin, because your mommy thinks they’re too scary for you, Kevin.
Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I TOLD YOU IN CONFIDENCE THAT I WET THE BED WHENEVER I WATCH SCARY TV SHOWS LIKE THOSE! AFTER MY LAWSUIT AGAINST GOODELL, I’M COMING AFTER YOU, AND WHEN I WIN, I WILL SEIZE ALL OF YOUR BOBBLEHEADS! We’ll be back after this!
BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen played a perfect game last week against Bill Belichick, of all defensive coaches. He misfired just four times and threw five touchdowns. The Bills scored a touchdown every single time they had the football, save for the final drive that featured kneeldowns.
Allen went nuts against the Chiefs earlier in the year as well, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns and also rushing for 59 yards and another score. Kansas City had no answer for him, losing 38-20. However, that Chiefs defense was not the same as the current unit. They added some pass rushers through injury changes and an acquisition, which allowed them to move Chris Jones into the interior. Jones didn’t even play in the loss to Buffalo, as he, Willie Gay and Charvarius Ward were some of the key defenders who were sidelined.
The Chiefs will be able to apply some pressure on Allen, so I would not expect a touchdown drive on every possession once again. However, consider two other things: One, unless Allen decides to mimic Kyler Murray and aspire to play like Drew Bledsoe, he’ll be able to dance circles around the Kansas City defenders. Two, Devin Singletary has evolved into a more capable back. The Bills didn’t have much of a running game in that earlier matchup, so Singletary could thrive against the Chiefs’ mediocre rush defense.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes did not perform well in that 38-20 defeat. He threw for 272 yards, but it took him 54 attempts and garbage time to get there. The Bills have an exceptional pass defense, and only one quarterback, Tom Brady, has had success against it this year.
However, Buffalo’s defense has changed since the early stages of the regular season. Tre’Davious White is not available due to injury, and he was certainly missed in the loss to the Buccaneers. Mahomes should be able to exploit this matchup, so I expect him to perform better than he did in the first meeting.
The Bills are at their weakest when it comes to stopping the run. The Patriots didn’t get a chance to take advantage of this last weekend because of Buffalo’s quick, early lead. The Chiefs might be able to succeed at rushing the ball with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, Jerrick McKinnon, Derrick Gore, or whichever back they decide to feature in this contest.
RECAP: If Allen plays like he did against the Patriots, the Bills will not lose in the playoffs. How often, however, does a team play a perfect game and then regress to the mean the following week? I’ll be shocked if Buffalo scores a touchdown on every single possession once again.
I’ll also be surprised if the Chiefs play as poorly as they did against Buffalo back in Week 5. The Chiefs’ Jones-less defense was miserable back then, but has made some serious upgrades. They can generate good pressure on the quarterback, which will make it difficult for Allen to be as successful as he was in that contest. Meanwhile, the Bills won’t have White in the rematch, which seems significant against Mahomes.
Given that the Bills struggled to put away the Falcons and Jets down the stretch in the regular season, I have to believe that if there were an advance spread, it would have been Kansas City -3 or perhaps even -3.5. However, because of Buffalo’s perfect game, this line is now on the other side of three.
It’s a shame that we lost our line value because I like the Bills. I’d love them at +3 or greater, but they’re not nearly as appealing at +2.5. The two most likely results of this game, in my opinion, are the Bills and Chiefs winning by three, in some order. We’re only getting one of those results with whichever side we take.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay was arrested, which may have prompted a bit of sharp action to come in on the Bills. This line moved closer to pick ’em.
SATURDAY NOTES: I’m thinking about betting the Bills to win the Super Bowl. I’ve seen something close to 4.5:1, which seems too low, considering the Bills have the best defense and the hottest quarterback in the field.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Bills all week, but some pro money came in on the Chiefs at the end. I still like Buffalo a bit, but the number sucks. I’m going to bet a unit on the Bills at +3 -135 at Bookmaker. I also bet Buffalo to win the Super Bowl, so that’s part of this wager; the Bills will be the heavy favorite if they prevail in this game.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: None.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5.
Computer Model: Chiefs -1.
DVOA Spread: Pick.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Chiefs early on, but the money is even now.
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 55% (77,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 20 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Chiefs 24
Bills +3 -135 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$135
Under 54 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 42, Bills 36
week 20 NFL Picks – Saturday Games
Bengals at Titans, 49ers at Packers
NFL Picks - Dec. 2
NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 2
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 30
2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
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2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
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2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
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2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
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2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
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2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
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2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
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2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 6-3 |
Bears: 5-5 |
Bucs: 6-4 |
49ers: 6-4 |
Eagles: 5-5 |
Lions: 9-1 |
Falcons: 6-5 |
Cardinals: 8-2 |
Giants: 3-6 |
Packers: 6-3 |
Panthers: 4-6 |
Rams: 5-5 |
Redskins: 5-5 |
Vikings: 4-6 |
Saints: 5-6 |
Seahawks: 6-3 |
|
|
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Bills: 4-7 |
Bengals: 2-9 |
Colts: 6-5 |
Broncos: 7-4 |
Dolphins: 4-6 |
Browns: 3-7 |
Jaguars: 3-7 |
Chargers: 6-3 |
Jets: 6-5 |
Ravens: 5-5 |
Texans: 5-6 |
Chiefs: 4-5 |
Patriots: 6-3 |
Steelers: 4-6 |
Titans: 6-3 |
Raiders: 5-5 |
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|
||
Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561) |
2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387) |
2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441) |
2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211) |
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446) |
2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293) |
Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185) |
Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37) |
2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2012 Season:
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2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2013 Season:
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2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2014 Season:
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2015 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2015 Season:
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2016 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2016 Season:
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2017 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2017 Season:
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2018 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2018 Season:
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2019 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2019 Season:
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2020 Season:
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2021 Season:
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2023 Season:
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