NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)

NFL Picks (2010): 24-21-2 (+$495)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 27, 4:30 p.m. ET. PARLAY HEDGE BELOW!

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games

Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Eagles -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Eagles -3.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Two opportunities to win money, if you’re into that sort of thing:

We are running our NFL Picking Contest again on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, if you’re still alive, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool. There are about 900 entries remaining out of 1,946. The Cowboys, Panthers and Vikings knocked out about 120 people in Week 2.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Despite repeatedly stating Sunday and Monday that Kevin Kolb would start this game, Andy Reid named QB Dog Killer the starter Tuesday afternoon. Reid is a scumbag with major character issues (how about you send another severely concussed player out onto the field, Andy?), so the fact that he lied to the media and the fans should surprise no one.

I believe QB Dog Killer belongs in a mental institution, but there’s no denying that he was very impressive last week. Sure, it was against the Lions, but the Jaguars don’t exactly have the greatest secondary in the world. In fact, Jacksonville ranks last versus the pass (10.2 YPA). Their safety play is horrific, and No. 2 corner Derek Cox was benched in the opener and hasn’t been heard from since.

The Jaguars aren’t very good versus the run either (4.5 YPC, 24th in NFL), so Philadelphia should be able to score at will against this pathetic defense.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Maurice Jones-Drew owners have to be panicking right now; their RB1 has just 129 yards on 35 carries this year. However, Jones-Drew gets an Eagles defense that is 22nd against the run (4.4 YPC), so there won’t be any Jones-Drew owners lighting themselves on fire after this weekend.

More running room for Jones-Drew will obviously help David Garrard, who tossed a career-high four interceptions last week. Not all of those picks were his fault, but he still played pretty terribly.

Garrard habitually plays better at home, so I expect a solid game out of him, despite all the pressure that Philadelphia’s stop unit brings. The Eagles are ranked just about in the middle of the pack against the pass.

RECAP: The Eagles are the superior team, and I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t be completely focused for this game. They generally play well in the latter half of back-to-back road swings, and they shouldn’t have much of a problem dispatching this miserable Jaguars squad.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Everyone is excited to bet on QB Dog Killer.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 83% (79,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Eagles are 12-20 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Jaguars are 15-9 ATS in September home games.

Jaguars are 9-2 ATS before playing the arch rival Colts since 2004.

Jaguars are 4-8 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 5-17 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 83 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Jaguars 20
Eagles -3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 28, Jaguars 3

Washington Redskins (1-1) at St. Louis Rams (0-2)
Line: Redskins by 5. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Redskins -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Redskins -6.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 20, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Little Turds on the Road. 2) Angry Street Crosser. 3) Czechoslovakia March.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Remember when the Redskins couldn’t score an offensive touchdown in the opener against the Cowboys? That seems like so long ago. Donovan McNabb finally got into a groove on Sunday, torching the Texans for 426 yards.

The Rams quite simply don’t stand a chance. They’re 20th versus the pass even though they’ve faced the awesome triumvirate of Derek Anderson, Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski. The well-protected McNabb will have another big game.

The Redskins may also be able to move the chains on the ground for a change. St. Louis had major issues containing Tim Hightower and LaRod Stephens-Howling in the opener, and looked helpless against Darren McFadden this past Sunday.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Sam Bradford has done a great job holding his own in his rookie season, especially when considering that aside from Steven Jackson, he doesn’t have a viable weapon to work with.

Jackson will find it difficult to run on Washington. The Redskins limited Arian Foster and Houston’s offense to just 83 rushing yards on 22 carries last week. I doubt Washington will be playing with the same energy it had against the Texans (more on this later), but Jackson’s inability to find running lanes will place Bradford in a plethora of third-and-long situations.

The Redskins bring more pressure than any team Bradford has seen thus far, so it’ll be interesting to see how he responds. He’s handled himself well so far, but this will be his toughest test to date.

RECAP: The Redskins are obviously the better team – and that brings us to the question, why in the world are they favored by only 3.5? The Cardinals were -3.5 at St. Louis, so Vegas is telling us that they consider Washington to be equal with a Kurt Warner-less Arizona squad. Does that sound right to you?

Well, it shouldn’t. Either the oddsmakers screwed up (unlikely), or they know something the public doesn’t and are baiting bettors into taking the visitor.

So, what aren’t people aware of? Here’s a guess: After this “easy” game, the Redskins battle the Eagles, Packers and Colts in three consecutive weeks. Getting up St. Louis in this spot will be very difficult.

I like this Rams team. They’re pretty feisty. Sure, they haven’t won yet, but they’ve lost their two games by a combined six points. I think they’ll hang around and cover the spread.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

Coming off a tough loss, the Redskins are in an awful spot. This is a Breather Alert, as they have the Eagles, Packers and Colts the next three weeks.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Redskins by 3.5 over the Rams? Easy money!

Percentage of money on Washington: 87% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Donovan McNabb is 24-13 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 39-25 ATS on the road since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -3.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Rams 22
Rams +5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 30, Redskins 16

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Denver Broncos (1-1)
Line: Colts by 5.5. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Colts -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Colts -4.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 3, Episode 2 has been posted – The Patriots battle the injured Lions, who once again get screwed over by a Calvin Johnson touchdown ruled incomplete. Episode 3 will be posted this weekend.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I love how everyone thought the Colts were done after they lost in Week 1. Yeah, I think they’re going to be OK.

There are only a handful of defenses in the league that can slow Peyton Manning down just a bit. The Broncos don’t have one of them. They have just two sacks on the year and are consequently 22nd versus the pass (7.2 YPA). Their run defense is even worse, allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

Unless the Colts make sloppy mistakes – which seldom happens – they’ll be able to move up and down the field with ease at Denver.

DENVER OFFENSE: The question is whether or not the Broncos can keep up with the Colts to give themselves a chance to win on the final possession. To do so, they’ll have to run the ball and keep Manning off the field.

Establishing a consistent ground attack has been a problem for the Broncos. Despite Knowshon Moreno’s return, they’ve struggled to move the chains via the running game. The problem has been the absence of right tackle Ryan Harris and right guard Chris Kuper. There’s a chance that both could return for this contest.

If Harris and Kuper are healthy, Denver will be able to establish Moreno, setting up short-yardage situations for Kyle Orton, who has been playing out of his mind this year, and can only improve with the emergence of Demaryius Thomas. However, if Harris and Kuper sit out, a lack of a running game will put Orton into long-yardage situations, which would be terrible news against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

RECAP: I have not forgotten the most serious issue regarding this game, which happens to be the suicide of Broncos receiver Kenny McKinley. How the Broncos react to this is unpredictable. For instance, the Bengals put on a spirited performance in the wake of Chris Henry’s death last year. However, the Redskins played poorly following the murder of Sean Taylor back in 2007, losing to Buffalo at home as large favorites, 17-16.

I wouldn’t bet this game at all, but if I had to choose, I’d take the Colts. Even if Harris and Kuper play, there’s no guarantee that they’ll be 100 percent. Plus, Indianapolis is a great road team, so playing at Mile High won’t bother them.

The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
It remains to be seen how the Broncos react to Kenny McKinley’s suicide.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

The betting action will almost always be on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 87% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Colts are 39-25 ATS on the road since 2002.

Peyton Manning is 30-19 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Broncos are 4-11 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 15 instances.

Opening Line: Colts -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 84 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Colts 31, Broncos 20
Colts -5.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; $100
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 27, Broncos 13

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
Line: Cardinals by 4.5. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Cardinals -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Cardinals -3.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “we have a good secindary and just need the def of cor to steep up the play calling”

Let’s hope this def of cor can steep up your spelling as well.

2. “who cares about the WNBA. Nobody watches that junk except for dikes n lesies.”

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

3. “WWWWWWOOOOOOOO that’s what i’m talking about baby so long SUPERBOWL supposble team hahahahaha”

It’s difficult to spot the line between SUPERBOWL and SUPERBOWL supposble teams. This man has that uncanny gift.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: As of this writing, the Raiders are deciding between Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski. Adam Schefter predicts that Oakland will choose the latter, and I’d have to agree. The only reason Oakland traded for Campbell is because Gradkowski was coming off multiple injuries. Now that he’s healthy again, the Polish Point Shaver is the best option for the Raiders.

Gradkowski is not a physically gifted quarterback, but he makes smart and accurate throws, and can scramble out of the pocket. He’s like a manly version of Jeff Garcia. Not that there’s anything wrong with not being manly.

Arizona’s defense is a joke. They couldn’t stop Jason Snelling last week, their secondary is pedestrian, and they have just three sacks on the year. Darnell Dockett isn’t playing up to his new contract, while Clark Haggans and Kerry Rhodes look completely lost. Darren McFadden, who is finally living up to being a top-five pick, should have a huge game, opening up play-action opportunities for Godkowski.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Though he’s still a better option than Matt Leinart, Derek Anderson has been atrocious through two games, owning an abysmal 54.2 completion percentage and a mediocre YPA of 6.4 – and the two teams he’s played (Rams, Falcons) don’t even have good defenses.

The Raiders have a pretty solid stop unit. Nnamdi Asomugha will be draped all over Larry Fitzgerald, so Anderson will have to look elsewhere. Early Doucet is out, so Anderson’s only other viable non-running back option is Steve Breaston.

The Cardinals will likely once again be without Chris Wells. However, that doesn’t matter, seeing as how Oakland limited Steven Jackson and the Rams to 75 yards on 21 carries. This is going to be long day for Arizona’s offense.

RECAP: Everything I’ve written so far says I’m going Raiders. Ha! Tricked you!

Look, I love the Polish Point Shaver as much as the next guy, but here are three things to consider:

1. The Raiders have had a tendency to only try hard against elite teams. Last year, they didn’t put much effort into their “lesser” opponents. You could argue that’s because they didn’t like JaMarcus Russell, but beating the Rams by two points didn’t exactly impress me.

2. Teams that lose the point spread by 25 or more points are 74-35 against the spread the following week (34-12 if favored). Arizona fits this system this week, and Ken Whisenhunt is 3-1 ATS in this situation.

3. The Cardinals are not that good, but they are a veteran team. After losing 41-7, I have to imagine that they’ll be playing for pride in their home opener.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Early action on the Raiders, but that settled down.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 66% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Teams that lose the point spread by 25+ points are 74-35 ATS the following week; 34-12 ATS if favored. (Ken Whisenhunt 3-1).

Opening Line: Cardinals -4.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Cardinals 20, Raiders 13
Cardinals -4.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 24, Raiders 23

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Line: Chargers by 4.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Chargers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Chargers -4.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

1. “is matt ryan having tough against stellers”

I dunno, is all of us having tough reading post? (Special thanks for forum member Gbosley for that one.)

2. “mabey ochostinco thought it was more important to tweet befor the half!!.”

Mabey. But then again, mabey not!!

3. “Besides if had of gone to the super bowl, you would have gotten wasted by bree’s and new orleans.”

Perhaps it is you who is wasted, my friend.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: One win, and everything’s OK, right? That’s what this point spread says. The Chargers had issues in pass protection, while Philip Rivers didn’t look particularly comfortable at Kansas City. Now, everything’s fine in the wake of a huge win at Jacksonville.

I’m not buying it. The Chargers were able to destroy the Jaguars because of all the turnovers Jacksonville committed (David Garrard had a career-high four interceptions). Moving the chains on the Seahawks will prove to be more difficult because Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert won’t be able to gash them like they did the Jaguars. Seattle has impressively shut down Frank Gore and Knowshon Moreno the past two weeks, so don’t expect anything from San Diego’s running game.

Fortunately for the Chargers, Seattle’s secondary has major issues, as it really struggled to contain Kyle Orton last week. Rivers, who will once again have to battle insane crowd noise, will shred the Seahawks’ defensive backfield and put some points on the board.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Matt Hasselbeck tossed three interceptions last week, giving him 14 picks in his final six games dating back to 2009. As noted earlier, the Chargers intercepted Garrard four times on Sunday, so this seems like a recipe for disaster.

Hasselbeck is bound to throw some picks because he won’t have any sort of running game to lean on. It’s bad enough that Justin Forsett stinks; the Chargers just held Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars to 69 yards on 31 carries.

RECAP: If the Chargers thought that playing in Arrowhead was difficult, they haven’t seen anything yet. The Seahawks have one of the premier homefield advantages in the NFL. They were 5-3 against the spread as hosts last year despite the fact that they endured a miserable 4-12 campaign.

Also, I’m not convinced the Chargers have their act together yet. They’ll get things going eventually as they always do once the season moves on, but they perennially struggle in September. I think laying 5.5 points on the road in a hostile environment is a bit too much with them right now.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
No surprise that the public is staying away from the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 62% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 14-4 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Chargers -6.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Showers, 65 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Chargers 20, Seahawks 17
Seahawks +4.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 27, Chargers 20 MISSING

New York Jets (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Line: Dolphins by 2.5. Total: 36.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Dolphins -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Dolphins -3.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Jets.

If you’ve been following my 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be posted by Wednesday evening.

If you have questions on whom to start, consult those rankings. I like to answer e-mails, but I’m receiving so many right now that it’s hard to get back to everyone. You can follow me on Twitter @walterfootball if you want to know when those rankings will be posted.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: A week ago: “Mark Sanchez is a bust! He sucks!” Now: “Mark Sanchez is awesome! Woooo!” People love to make knee-jerk reactions when it comes to football, and I have to admit that I was guilty of this as well. After a terrific playoff run, Sanchez looked completely horrible against the Ravens and throughout the entire preseason. It seemed like he lost his confidence and was struggling to read defenses. I thought he was a bust. Whoops.

The Dolphins will offer more of a challenge than the Patriots did last week. They’re actually third versus the pass, giving up a 5.2 YPA. That ranking is a little skewed because they played Trent Edwards in the season opener, but they still managed to do a good job against Brett Favre last week. They tend to place a good amount of pressure on the quarterback (six sacks in two games) and their secondary capitalizes with interceptions. New England doesn’t do this.

The Jets will be able to run the ball. Miami had issues with Adrian Peterson last week, and while neither LaDainian Tomlinson nor Shonn Greene is nearly as good as Peterson, they have superior blocking from their prolific offensive line. And besides, it’s not like Tomlinson is the guy we saw struggle in San Diego the past two years; he really looks close to the MVP runner we enjoyed watching back in 2006. I don’t understand how he got his quickness back, but kudos to him.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins are 2-0, and while Chad Henne hasn’t made any mistakes, you can’t really say that his team is undefeated because of him. Henne hasn’t been asked to do much the past two weeks. That’ll need to change if Miami wants to beat the Jets.

The Jets are second versus the run, giving up just 1.9 yards per carry. They limited the Ravens to only 47 yards on 31 attempts, and followed that up by yielding just 52 yards on 20 rushes to New England last week. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams won’t find much running room Sunday night.

Henne has lucked out a bit because Darrelle Revis is out. Nevertheless, he still has a daunting task in front of him because Rex Ryan will be able to use his creative blitz schemes when Henne is stuck in third-and-long. Joe Flacco and Tom Brady were able to get out of those instances, but Henne probably won’t be as successful.

RECAP: In the Early Games portion of the Week 3 NFL Picks, I discussed how the Steelers and Bengals were in a tough spot going from a straight-up win as an underdog to being favored. The Dolphins face the same dilemma, as Tony Sparano is 0-3 against the spread in this situation.

Going from winning as a hunter to being successful as the hunted is very difficult to do, as evidenced by Sparano and Marvin Lewis’ combined 2-10 spread record. The approach to the second game is so much different, and being in a strange dynamic just throws most teams off.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game in the AFC East.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 58% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Dolphins have won the last 3 meetings.

Jets are 7-4 ATS on the road in 2009.

Jets are 5-3 ATS as underdogs in 2009.

Dolphins are 10-3 ATS vs. AFC East since 2008.

Dolphins are 31-22 SU in September since 1994.

Dolphins are 9-7 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Tony Sparano is 0-3 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 35.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 83 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Jets 16, Dolphins 10
Jets +2.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 36 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 31, Dolphins 23

Green Bay Packers (2-0) at Chicago Bears (2-0)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Packers -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Packers -3.
Monday, Sept. 27, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: .

It’s Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Chicago, the place where my Eagles won in the playoffs back in 2001! Tonight, we have the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. Guys, I really hate the Packers because they injured my favorite player, Kevin Kolb. What can we do to sabotage this game so Chicago can win?

Emmitt: Karl, we have been hire to be the announcer of this game. It is not our job to sabotize.

Reilly: Emmitt, I love you, but I will not sleep until I sabotage this game for the Packers. Should I hit Aaron Rodgers on the head with a baseball bat? What do you think Bob?

Griese: Aaron Rodgers is a good football player!

Reilly: Ah, you’re no help. Herm, I hate your guts, but you’re my only hope. Can you pin Rodgers down while I beat him up?

Herm: Will not help there! Won’t help! Will not help! Definitely will not help there! Nope! No sir! Not a chance! Not in your wildest dreams! Won’t do it! Just won’t do it! Won’t even think of it!

Reilly: I knew it. You hate the Eagles! All of you!!!

Griese: The Eagles play football in the AFC East!

Reilly: Ugh. I’m about to sabotage this entire booth.

Emmitt: Karl, if you sabotize this booth, you will be sabotizin’ yourselves.

Reilly: That’s true. I give up. My life sucks.

Herm: That’s what I’ve been saying all along! That’s what I’ve been saying this whole time! That’s what’s been coming out of my mouth! But I know how you can turn your life around, Kevin! I know! I know the secret! I’ll tell you the secret! I’ll let you know! I’ll tell you right now! The secret is… uhh…

Reilly: I’ve made up my mind. I’m definitely sabotaging this booth. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Ryan Grant was out last week, and the Packers didn’t miss a beat. Brandon Jackson wasn’t overly impressive, but Aaron Rodgers was still able to go 19-of-29 for 255 yards and two touchdowns with a third score on the ground against a very solid Buffalo secondary.

The Bears currently are 10th versus the pass, but that ranking is a bit off because of Shaun Hill in Week 1. But no matter how good a team’s secondary is, there’s no stopping a top-four quarterback like Rodgers.

In order to win this game, Chicago will have to pressure Rodgers and force him into making poor decisions. Left tackle Chad Clifton could be out with some sort of mysterious knee injury. That sounds like trouble with Julius Peppers lining up on the other side of the line of scrimmage, but rookie Bryan Bulaga stepped in for Clifton last week and didn’t allow a single pressure in two-and-a-half quarters of action. I don’t expect a rookie to remain error-free against one of the premier pass-rushers in the game, but Bulaga is physically talented enough to hold his own.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Buccaneers haven’t beaten anyone, and the Chiefs lucked into a win against the Chargers, so my biggest surprise 2-0 is Chicago. Actually, I’m more shocked that Jay Cutler’s organs haven’t spilled out of his body yet. Cutler, Mike Martz’s flawed blocking schemes and a horrific offensive line seemed like major trouble at Dallas, but Martz deserves a ton of credit for making adjustments to counter the Cowboys’ blitzes. Martz coached circles around Wade Phillips (which is not difficult to do).

Let’s see if Cutler and Martz can do that against a competent coaching staff that has Pro Bowl-quality personnel to work with. Clay Matthews already has six sacks on the year (he’s on pace for 48), and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he hit double digits sometime in the second half of this NFC North battle.

Led by Charles Woodson, the Packers have a very opportunistic secondary. If Matthews can rattle Cutler enough, the defensive backfield will feast on Chicago’s mistakes.

RECAP: The emotional aspect of this game says Chicago will win. Soldier Field will be going nuts on Monday night. Like the Chiefs in Week 1, the Bears will feed off the crowd. And don’t forget what happened when the Vikings visited the Bears on a Monday night late last year.

Having said that, I’m taking the Packers. They were my pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and if I’m right in thinking that they are a special team, they will find some way to overcome a raucous Soldier Field crowd.

I don’t feel too strongly about laying three though. That’s because I think the Packers will win by a field goal. This will be a tough battle that will go down to the wire, but I’m pretty sure that Green Bay will prevail.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

Soldier Field will be going nuts here. Remember what happened when the Vikings waltzed into Chicago on a Monday night last year?

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

No surprise that everyone is on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 84% (130,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Home Team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Packers are 23-10 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Clear, 48 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Bears 27
Packers -3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 20, Packers 17

Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games
49ers at Chiefs, Lions at Vikings, Bills at Patriots, Falcons at Saints, Titans at Giants, Browns at Ravens, Cowboys at Texans, Steelers at Buccaneers, Cowboys at Texans, Steelers at Buccaneers, Bengals at Panthers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Live Dog: Titans +135 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$135

Small Parlay: Vikings -11, Falcons +3.5, Titans +3, Cowboys +3, Eagles -3, Packers -3 (.5 Units to win 23.2) — Incorrect; -$50

PARLAY HEDGE: BEARS +3 (6 UNITS. Congrats on those who used the above parlay – now make sure you hedge! I put the Packers -3 on the card for the sole purpose of hedging!) — Correct; +$600

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)