Week 17 NFL Picks – WalterFootball

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2008): 7-9 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2008): 9-5-2 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2008): 6-10 (-$700)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 121-114-5 (+$1,880)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 28, 11:05 a.m. ET.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
Line: Ravens by 11. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Ravens -7.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Ravens -11.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: RB Fred Taylor (IR), FB Greg Jones (IR), WR Matt Jones (SUSP), G Vince Manuwai (IR), G Maurice Williams (IR), G Chris Naeole (IR), ILB Daryl Smith (IR), CB Rashean Mathis (IR), P Adam Podlesh (IR). Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), WR Demetrius Williams (IR), TE Quinn “Miracle Man” Sypniewski (IR), OT Marshal Yanda (IR), OT Adam Terry, DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Tavares Gooden (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR), CB Chris McAlister (IR), S Dawan Landry (IR).

I never really got the chance to make fun of the NFL Network crew this year. I was reminded of that prior to the Baltimore-Dallas game, where Rich Eisen and company spent literally five minutes talking about how great of a leader Ray Lewis is. Here’s what it sounded like, in case you missed it:

Rich Eisen: Guys, how great of a leader is Ray Lewis?

Marshall Faulk: Yes, he leads by example. What a great leader.

Steve Mariucci: Oh boy, golly good gosh, gee whiz!

Faulk: I agree. He is a great leader. He and I should coach the St. Louis Rams together.

Sterling Sharpe: Ray Lewis is such a leader. He will crack your skull!

Warren Sapp: Ray Lewis is an incredible leader. Me like cake. Nom nom nom!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: You know, I can be really dumb sometimes. I keep listing the Ravens as one of my underrated teams in the front page of the NFL Picks section, yet I keep picking against them. I don’t know why I chose Dallas last week.

Joe Flacco is the man. He had the early fumble, which wasn’t really his fault. He didn’t let that bother him, as he efficiently finished 17-of-25 for 149 yards and a touchdown. Those aren’t the prettiest numbers in the world, but Flacco makes all the clutch throws whenever the Ravens need it most. That’s inexplicable for a rookie.

Of course, it helped that LeRon McClain and Willis McGahee both totaled more than 100 rushing yards. Both will be able to help the team move the chains on the ground versus Jacksonville’s 19th-ranked rush defense. However, it’ll be Flacco who will be most effective; Jacksonville is a pitiful 30th against the pass.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: At the other end of the spectrum, no one runs the ball against the Ravens, who are first against the rush this season.

Without his fullback and key starting interior linemen, Maurice Jones-Drew will struggle, forcing the suddenly turnover-prone David Garrard into obvious passing downs. Garrard was lobbing up punts against the Colts, so imagine how terrible he’s going to be in this contest.

RECAP: The Jaguars are done. I know they just played two tough games against the Packers and Colts, but the latter contest was their Super Bowl. They put everything into that Indianapolis game and fell short after establishing a 14-0 lead.

In the wake of that sad defeat, Jacksonville doesn’t have much to play for. They’re a warm-weather team forced to play a contest where it could be about 40 degrees. Rain and mild winds are also expected. Think some of the Jaguar players will have their cars running in the parking lot? I’ll be shocked if Jacksonville doesn’t mail this one in.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The Jaguars are done. They put everything into last week’s game against the Colts. That was their Super Bowl. They lost, so this is a major Let-Down Alert.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action after early money on Baltimore.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 53% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 13-7 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Ravens -11.5.

Opening Total: 35.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 50 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Ravens 34, Jaguars 3
Ravens -11 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 37.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Ravens 27, Jaguars 7

Dallas Cowboys (9-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-6-1)
Line: Eagles by 1. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Eagles -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Eagles -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: RB Felix Jones (IR), WR Sam Hurd (IR), G Kyle Kosier (IR), CB Pacman Jones, S Roy Williams (IR), P Mat McBriar (IR). Eagles: OUT: G Shawn Andrews, G Max Jean-Gilles (IR), CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR).

A funny quote by Philadelphia sports talk radio host Angelo Cataldi in the wake of the Eagles’ loss to the Redskins: “This is the stupidest… the stupidest group of players, coaches and owners I have ever seen in my entire life!”

And Cataldi didn’t say that just because the Eagles are a yard short all the time (the Bears game, the first Redskins game, all of those missed third-and-shorts, and now the Reggie Brown). A number of ridiculous things occurred at Washington. Here are three:

1. Donovan McNabb didn’t know who won the Tampa Bay-San Diego game. I find that completely ridiculous. How did he not know? Why didn’t he want to know? Did he even know this game was going on? Is he aware that other games take place while he’s playing?

2. If McNabb wasn’t aware, why didn’t Andy Reid tell the team what happened in that contest? Shouldn’t you fire up the squad at halftime? Any normal coach would. Reid, meanwhile, was probably busy making 40 different reservations for dinner that night.

3. To anyone who didn’t watch the Eagles-Redskins game, when Philadelphia was driving down the field with two minutes left, L.J. Smith, who already had two key drops in this game, finally made a catch. With the clock running down, Smith had the audacity to carelessly flip the ball behind his back to the official, who was attempting to spot the ball for the Eagles. The referee actually had to make a great grab above his head – something Smith probably couldn’t have done. What was Smith doing? If the ball sailed over the official’s head, more time would have ticked off the clock. I said it when it happened, and I’ve mentioned it a billion times since: The Eagles made a huge mistake franchising this bum last spring.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles are pretty easy to figure out. They win when everyone doubts them, and they lose when the games matter the most. That’s the way it has been since the Super Bowl.

Well, this game isn’t going to matter because I can’t see the Buccaneers losing to the Raiders. And besides, even if Tampa Bay goes down, it’s not like McNabb is going to know or even care to know.

Everyone who has an opinion on this matchup tends to believe that the Eagles will have nothing to play for, which favors the Cowboys. I disagree. Philadelphia has shown us in the past that they perform best when there is nothing on the line.

With that in mind, I’m expecting a monstrous performance from Donovan McNabb. Dallas’ injury-plagued defense finally ran out of juice and was exposed against the Ravens last week. Look for Andy Reid to concentrate more on the run as well for a change (again, this game doesn’t matter, which means Reid will have a better game plan.) Maybe Ken Hamlin will whiff on a few more tackles this Sunday.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I call Tony Romo “Aurora Snowmo” for a reason. He chokes in the clutch more than any other quarterback in recent history. Snowmo was brutal against the Ravens. He finished with 250 yards and two touchdowns, but he had less than 100 yards and two picks at the beginning of the fourth quarter. He compiled most of his stats when his team was down two scores.

I have no doubt that Snowmo will once again choke away another promising season. Meanwhile, Marion Barber’s status is in doubt, but that’s not a terrible thing because Tashard Choice has been unstoppable the past three weeks. The Eagles are fifth versus the rush, but Choice totaled at least 88 rushing yards against the Steelers (3rd), Giants (8th) and Ravens (1st).

RECAP: These are two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL because they always tend to choke in the clutch. But barring a major upset in the early afternoon games, the pressure will be on just one squad in this matchup.

Both Cowboys and Eagles fans have read this book before. For Dallas, Snowmo and Wade Phillips will come up short. For Philadelphia, McNabb and Reid will win yet another meaningless game, giving the people of the city false hope yet again.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

I think I’ve figured this Eagles team out. They win when there is no pressure on the line, and they lose when they’re expected to beat a formidable opponent. Well, they need a few things to happen even if they win, so they won’t be in Choke Mode. The Cowboys? Well, the Aurora Snowmo nickname says it all.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

I’m actually surprised more people aren’t on the Cowboys. There’s a very good chance the Eagles won’t have anything to play for at kickoff.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (144,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 12 of the last 17 meetings.

Vengeance: Andy Reid is 6-3 ATS in divisional revenge games.

Cowboys are 9-4 ATS after a loss since 2006.

Tony Romo is 2-10 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (0-2 ATS as an underdog).

Tony Romo is 10-5 ATS on the road.

Eagles are 53-34 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 23-16 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 21-11 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 48 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Eagles 17, Cowboys 10
Eagles -1 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 42.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Eagles 44, Cowboys 6

Washington Redskins (8-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): 49ers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): 49ers -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

Injuries: Redskins: OUT: OT Chris Samuels (IR), DE Phillip Daniels (IR), S Reed Doughty (IR). 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), FB Zak Keasey (IR), WR Arnaz Battle (IR), OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR).

The 16th installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt.

Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Week 6: Dennis Green blows a record lead and has to be taken to the mental hospital! In Week 7, Al Davis finds proof that Emmitt and Green conspired to lose on purpose. Week 8: Roger Goodell cancels all games for a mysterious reason. Week 9: A steroids scandal rocks Foxborough! Week 10: Both Emmitt and Anthony Morelli were very busy during an interesting bye week. Week 11: the Patriots get “blowed out” without Emmitt, while Morelli mysteriously avoids a suspension! Week 12: the Patriots battle the Jets for first place in the AFC East. Week 13: Emmitt and Romeo Crennel attend a charity event prior to playing Andy Reid and the 49ers. Week 14: About 100 players are suspended for violating the illegal substance policy. Week 15: The Patriots and Bills play the NFL’s annual international game.

Now, in Week 16, something bizarre occurs when the Patriots battle the Dolphins. Find out what happened on Friday! Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: According to reports, Mike Singletary met with San Francisco front office personnel and laid out his plans for next year. Those plans did not include Mike Martz.

Surprise, surprise. If the 49ers started Shaun Hill the entire season – remember, Martz called O’Sullivan the “greatest quarterback he’s ever coached” – they probably would have a better record than Arizona right now. Despite his first-half antics at St. Louis, Hill is much more careful with the football than the erratic J.T. O’Sullivan. Hill had a horrible game last week, but still managed to lead a comeback on the road.

What’s more amazing is that Hill was able to do this without Frank Gore. Gore will be back in the lineup for this contest. He’ll easily trample Washington’s 17th-ranked rush defense, setting up easy play-action opportunities for Hill. I think Hill will be glad to know that the Redskins have just 23 sacks on the year.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It’s become apparent that Clinton Portis has worn down recently. Since registering 143 yards against the Seahawks in Week 12, Portis hasn’t gained more than 77 rushing yards in any contest. He hasn’t even managed more than 3.2 yards per carry in any of his previous four games.

Making matters worse, the 49ers are 11th against the run. With Portis doing nothing on the ground, Jason Campbell will have to move the chains on his own, which hasn’t exactly worked out recently. Since the aforementioned Seattle game, Campbell has two touchdowns, three interceptions and three fumbles. He has also been seen sacked nine times.

RECAP: San Francisco has been a covering machine ever since Hill has taken over at quarterback. Since the team’s Week 10 bye, the 49ers are 4-3 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. The Redskins, meanwhile, have been the polar opposite (4-6 SU and 2-7-1 ATS since Oct. 12). I’ll take the hot club.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

The public slightly favors the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 66% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: 49ers -3.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Possible showers, 52 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Redskins 10
49ers -3 (1 Unit) — Push; $0
Under 37 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
49ers 27, Redskins 24

Seattle Seahawks (4-11) at Arizona Cardinals (8-7)
Line: Cardinals by 6.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Cardinals -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Seahawks -3.

Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Deion Branch*, WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Logan Payne (IR), G Rob Sims (IR), G Mike Wahle (IR), C Chris Spencer (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR). Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR).

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “When I look at the Vikings, I see a problem at quarterback position.” (Commentary: Stupid Vikings – if only they listened to Emmitt in the offseason, they would know they have a problem at quarterback position.)

2. “Kurt, you probably the only guy in the locker room that has a Super Bowl ring.” (Commentary: Two things: First, how did Kurt Warner not laugh upon hearing that question? And second, I love Emmitt’s research. You “probably” the only guy. Come on, Emmitt! The cardinal rule of journalism is to be factually correct! Didn’t ESPN make sure Emmitt would… Umm… never mind.)

3. “He just want to convey that it take more than heart, brain and brawns to win a football game.” (Commentary: Unfortunately, it doesn’t take any of that to be a commentator on ESPN.)

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Unfortunately, we didn’t get to see Emmitt on Monday night (probably too cold), so we couldn’t hear his thoughts on the Arizona Cardinals. It may have sounded something like, “The weathers… it debacled the St. Louis Cardinals.” Arizona’s lacking effort last week was embarrassing. They shouldn’t have even shown up and forfeited during the week.

But it wasn’t just the effort. The Cardinals were lethargic against the Vikings the week before as well. Now, Ken Whisenhunt is saying things like, “We will treat this as a playoff game, within reason” and “We need some success.”

I’m not buying it. Arizona is a very flawed, one-dimensional team. The absence of a legitimate ground attack has been more prevalent each week, dating back to the Eagles blowout. Sure, Kurt Warner should be able to torch the Seahawks’ 28th-ranked pass defense, but there’s also a good chance he fumbles or tosses a pick. That’s what tends to happen when you air it out 50 times a game.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Cardinals’ other flaw is their putrid defense. They’re 12th versus the rush and 23rd against the pass. The Seahawks, who run a more balanced scoring attack, have been playing much better of late. Just last week, they beat the Jets, 13-3, despite the fact that they fumbled twice deep inside New York territory.

Maurice Morris, who compiled 116 yards on 29 carries, will be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, setting up easy conversion opportunities for Seneca “The Backdoor Bandit” Wallace. The Backdoor Bandit has done a great job spelling Matt Hasselbeck after the Thanksgiving disaster; he has four touchdowns, no picks and two fumbles the past three weeks.

RECAP: You have one team playing very poorly right now. The Cardinals may want to treat this game like a playoff contest, but I don’t think any squad can just flip the on switch just like that.

And in the other corner, you have a team that has performed well recently. The Seahawks have covered their last three games, and in six of their previous seven contests, they have either won or lost by less than six.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Cardinals apparently have packed it in until the playoffs. Good luck with all that.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

The public still seems to like the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 83% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Seahawks are 9-2 ATS in their road finale since 1996.

Seahawks are 10-15 ATS on the road since 2006.

Cardinals are 12-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 23
Seahawks +6.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 46 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Cardinals 34, Seahawks 21

Miami Dolphins (10-5) at New York Jets (9-6)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Jets -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Jets -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: WR Greg Camarillo (IR), G Donald Thomas (IR), CB Michael Lehan (IR). Jets: OUT: RB Jesse Chatman (IR), ILB Brad Kassell (IR).

I went out to dinner with my parents and sister a few weeks ago. We decided on Red Lobster, the greatest restaurant of all time. Seriously, I love Red Lobster. If I could have my wedding reception there, I’d be a happy man.

At any rate, I noticed this hot waitress, and I hoped she would be servicing me. Instead, our waiter turned out to be a short, fat man named Trevor. Once Trevor began speaking with a lisp, I assumed the obvious – not that there’s anything wrong with that – but then I noticed that he kept staring at my sister. So, either he was attracted to her, or thought she’d make a great friend as a gossip gal.

When dinner was over and I had stuffed myself with 20 pounds of shrimp and biscuits, the manager came up to us, and gave my sister a $4 coupon and said, “This is from Trevor.” Whoa, big spender! Four bucks! Anyone dating Trevor must be a lucky girl (or guy). Actually, I joke about this, but I’m jealous. A $4 coupon to Red Lobster is like a $40,000 coupon to any other restaurant.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s over. Brett Favre is finished. He’s been terrible recently. In his past four games, three of which were against losing teams, Favre has just one passing touchdown and six interceptions. Since Week 5, Favre has 15 picks and nine scores, and the last time Favre fired more than two touchdown passes in a single game was on Sept. 28.

The Dolphins, who seldom allow touchdowns themselves, won’t be threatened by Favre. Instead, they’ll focus on shutting down Thomas Jones. Miami is 16th versus the rush.

Favre will be given opportunities to lead his team to victory, but I just don’t see it happening. Joey Porter and Matt Roth will make things even more difficult for the veteran signal caller.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s pretty ironic that Chad Pennington has vastly out-performed Favre this season. In the same four-game stretch in which Favre has struggled mightily, Pennington has debacled opposing secondaries. His stats? The complete opposite of Favre’s – six touchdowns and one pick. I told you it was ironic.

Pennington will have tons of opportunities to convert third-and-short situations because his ground attack will expose New York’s sudden weakness versus the rush. The Jets, who were once among the top three in run defense, have recently given up 100-yard performances to the likes of Maurice Morris and Peyton Hillis.

Given that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will have major success moving the chains, Pennington will easily torch a porous secondary ranked 18th against the pass.

RECAP: I’ll copy-paste what I wrote on the home page of the NFL Picks section:

Beating the Titans was the worst thing that could have happened to the Jets. They used up all of their energy and they don’t have any gas left in the tank. They just peaked too early. Before the struggle against the Bills, I declared that New York would barely beat Buffalo, and then lose to Seattle and Miami to close out the season. I’m 2-for-2 so far.

With that in mind, let’s make it 3-for-3!

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

I’ve been saying it for weeks. The Jets should have never beaten the Titans. They put so much energy into that game because it was right after their overtime win at New England. Since then, New York has played with absolutely no energy.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 50% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Jets have won 17 of the last 21 meetings.

Losing Coach: Eric Mangini is 2-5 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Road Warrior: Tony Sparano is 2-0 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Dolphins are 6-16 ATS vs. AFC East since 2005.

Brett Favre is 11-1 ATS in home finales.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Possible showers, 46 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Dolphins 31, Jets 17
Dolphins +3 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 43 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Dolphins 24, Jets 17

Denver Broncos (8-7) at San Diego Chargers (7-8)
Line: Chargers by 8. Total: 50.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 16): Chargers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 16): Chargers -4.5.

Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Broncos: OUT: QB Patrick Ramsey (IR), RB Peyton Hillis (IR), RB Michael Pittman (IR), RB Andre Hall (IR), RB P.J. Pope (IR), RB Selvin Young (IR), TE Nate Jackson (IR), OT Erik Pears, C Tom Nalen (IR), OLB Boss Bailey (IR). Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR), DE/OLB Shawne Merriman (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 17 NFL Look-A-Like Thread, featuring Larry the Cable Guy, Kyle Orton and Crazy Eyes.

A few weeks ago, when the Chargers were 4-8, Bill Simmons joked that if the Chargers improved to 7-8 and the Broncos sank to 8-7, CBS would send its No. 6 team to cover this winner-take-all matchup.

A pretty good theory – only NBC decided that football fans would find this matchup compelling. Sure, this is the first official playoff game of the season (the winner moves on; the loser bows out), but isn’t this a bit like the play-in contest two days before the NCAA Tournament, which usually features a UNC-Asheville versus an Alabama A&M? No one cares about that game because they know the winner will simply be debacled in the first round.

Making that parallel works here, but people might be intrigued to see one of the greatest collapses in NFL history. At 8-5, all the Broncos needed was one win or a single Chargers loss. They blew their opportunity against the Bills, while the Chargers went into Tampa Bay and completely dominated. A spread of eight may seem a bit absurd, but it’s kind of legitimate if you just look at last week’s results. After all, people have a short memory. That would explain why there is equal action.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: As I’ve been saying all year, Denver’s defense is so bad that the team can lose to anyone. The Broncos can’t pressure the passer, contain the run (30th) or stop the pass (27th). The last time these teams battled each other, San Diego seldom punted, as Philip Rivers was simply dominant (21-of-33, 377 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT).

Look for more of the same out of Rivers. If the Broncos couldn’t contain the Bills, how in the world are they going to prevent the red-hot Rivers from lighting up the scoreboard?

DENVER OFFENSE: Going back to my Broncos philosophy, I’ve also been saying that Denver’s offense is so good that the team can also beat anyone. This was prevalent when the Broncos went into the Meadowlands and the Georgia Dome, and beat the Jets and Falcons recently.

San Diego’s defense stinks as well. Without Shawne Merriman, the Chargers haven’t been able to get to opposing signal callers all year, which has exposed their secondary.

Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, who are double-handedly keeping the Broncos alive, will keep up with San Diego’s offense. Remember, Marshall caught an amazing 18 passes for 166 yards and a score in the initial meeting back in Week 2. Cutler, meanwhile, was 36-of-50 for 350 yards for four scores and a pick.

RECAP: So, if neither defense can stop the opposing offense, who comes out on top?

Well, an interesting dynamic has emerged. Ever since the Chargers were 4-8, they’ve been the underdogs. No one expected them to come back and claim the division. The Broncos, meanwhile, had all of the pressure on their shoulders.

Things have changed dramatically. Now, San Diego is the favorite. After all, the team is -8 despite having the inferior record. In many minds, Denver has already lost. Every single Broncos fan I’ve talked to has conceded defeat.

I’m not ready to do that. The Broncos haven’t made any sense this year to casual bettors, who continue to get burnt by them every week. That’s because, as I always say, their defense can lose to anyone, but their offense can also beat anyone. Because everyone doubts them, I think the latter takes place.

That’s right. Denver will shock everyone and somehow win. You heard it here first.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Collapse of the decade if the Broncos lose this game. At least they’re not favored anymore.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 52% (148,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Home Team has won 11 of the last 15 meetings.

History: Chargers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Chargers are 6-2 ATS at home the week after playing on the East Coast since 2004.

Opening Line: Chargers -9.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 53 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Broncos 30, Chargers 27
Broncos +8 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 50.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Chargers 52, Broncos 21

Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games
Browns at Steelers, Patriots at Bills, Chiefs at Bengals, Lions at Packers, Raiders at Buccaneers, Titans at Colts, Panthers at Saints, Giants at Vikings, Rams at Falcons, Bears at Texans

Printable version of Week 17 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Live Dog: Lions +450 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Giants +250 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Saints +120 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Dolphins +120 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$120

Live Dog: Seahawks +240 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Broncos +280 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Pyschology Parlay: Lions +11, Saints +1.5, Ravens -11, Eagles -1, Dolphins +3, Seahawks +6.5 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)