Week 16 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2008): 7-9 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2008): 9-5-2 (+$1,200)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 115-104-5 (+$2,580)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games

Houston Texans (7-7) at Oakland Raiders (3-11)
Line: Texans by 7. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Texans -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Texans -3.

Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Injuries: Texans: OUT: RB Ahman Green (IR), RB Chris Brown (IR), RB Chris Taylor (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), OLB Zach Diles (IR), CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown, KR Andre Davis. Raiders: OUT: FB Justin Griffith (IR), WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR), C Jake Grove, S Tyvon Branch (IR).

If you come to this Web site just for fantasy football and don’t plan on returning until August, here are some things I’ll be covering the next eight months:

1. More frequently updated 2009 and 2010 NFL Mock Drafts, and NFL Draft Prospect Rankings.
2. 2009 NFL Free Agency lists and daily updates.
3. Offseason team needs and season previews.
4. Live NFL Draft Grades for each pick on Draft Day.
5. Detailed NCAA Tournament Breakdown and Predictions.
6. A new handicapping/pick breakdown section coming in January (for all sports).
7. NFL Draft Combine Results
8. The Emmitt Smith Anthology Volume II and a 2009 Emmitt Smith NFL Mock Draft
9. The Andy Reid Bingo Game
10. More ESPN/NFL spoofs
11. 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings and tons of fantasy mock drafts.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Something tells me Andre Johnson could be the No. 1 receiver chosen in most fantasy leagues next year. Johnson is one of the hottest wideouts in the game right now, and I can’t see anyone containing him – not even Nnamdi Asomugha.

Houston’s scoring attack in general has been on fire. If the Raiders’ $500 billion defensive line couldn’t contain Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan, what’s going to happen against Steve Slaton? Slaton will easily compile at least 150 total yards, making things even easier for Matt Schaub.

Schaub will have another big game. He has way too many weapons to work with for the pitiful Raiders.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of pitiful, Oakland’s offense won’t do much scoring here. The Texans, who have been better against the run lately, will stack the box and challenge JaMarcus Russell to beat them. That’s not going to happen.

I also don’t see how the Raiders offensive line is going to block Mario Williams. It’s pretty ridiculous that Al Davis invested so much into a quarterback and failed to give him proper protection and receivers to work with. Then again, it’s pretty ridiculous when your owner sacrifices virgins, drinks goat blood and creates Fake AIM Conversations.

RECAP: This line seems strange. The Patriots were barely -7 at Oakland (6.5 in some places), while the Texans are a solid -7. So, Vegas is telling us Houston is just as good as New England, if not better?

You know what? I can actually buy that.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

The Texans may be out of the playoff picture, but they’re trying to finish with a winning record for the first time in franchise history. They have a lot riding on this “meaningless” game.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

The most lop-sided bet game of the week.

Percentage of money on Houston: 96% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Texans are 13-21 ATS after a win (7-5 since 2007).

Gary Kubiak is 2-1 ATS on the West Coast.

Raiders are 3-18 ATS in their final home game since 1985.

Raiders are 9-28 ATS at home the previous 37 instances.

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather (Sunday Update): Showers, 50 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Raiders 10
Texans -7 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 43.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Survivor Pick (13-2)
Raiders 27, Texans 16

New York Jets (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (3-11)
Line: Jets by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Jets -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Jets -3.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Jets: OUT: RB Jesse Chatman (IR), ILB Brad Kassell (IR). Seahawks: OUT: QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Deion Branch*, WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Logan Payne (IR), OT Walter Jones (IR), G Rob Sims (IR), G Mike Wahle (IR), C Chris Spencer (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR).

It’s become public knowledge that the Jets suck on the West Coast. This year, they’re 0-3 straight up and against the spread out there. So, what is Eric Mangini planning to do about it? Let’s hear it from the man himself:

“The travel element… we researched it.”

Researched? Where did you look, Wikipedia? Jets fans better hope that Mangini didn’t spend too much time going through the stacks at the library to game plan for the Seahawks.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Save for Thanksgiving, the Seahawks have played well lately. You may laugh that a victory over the Rams constitutes playing well, but it was on the road. And two weeks ago, Seattle gave New England all it could handle, losing 24-21.

Seattle won’t be able to run the ball against Kris Jenkins, but it’s not like the team was able to do so versus New England (Maurice Morris had 39 yards on 14 carries.) Seneca “The Backdoor Bandit” Wallace was masterful in that contest, going 20-of-28 for 212 yards and three touchdowns, and also rushing thrice for 47 yards.

New York’s pass defense is anemic. The Jets had problems containing J.P. Zohan last week until his fourth-quarter self-debaclation. The Backdoor Bandit has proven to be more efficient.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Brett Favre admitted after the Buffalo victory that his arm isn’t nearly as strong as it once was. No kidding? I find it ridiculous that Favre was voted to the Pro Bowl, considering he has more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (9) since the Jets’ Week 5 bye.

Thomas Jones has been carrying this team and will have to do so once again. The Seahawks are 14th against the rush, so Jones shouldn’t have any problems moving the chains on the ground.

However, there’s a good chance Favre could screw everything up. I mentioned his pick-score ratio since the bye; check out his numbers in the three West Coast losses: 71-of-111, 605 yards (5.5 YPA), three touchdowns, five interceptions and three fumbles. He has also taken nine of his 26 sacks out there. Mangini undoubtedly discovered this amid his research.

RECAP: I like Seattle to win outright. New York’s inability to win on the West Coast against the 6-8 Chargers, 5-9 49ers and 3-11 Raiders isn’t a fluke. Mangini, Favre and the offensive line just suck at traveling.

Also, if the Patriots couldn’t beat the Seahawks by more than three points, what makes you think that the Jets can be victorious by at least six? I have a feeling the Jets won’t take the 3-11 Seahawks too seriously, focusing on the Dolphins instead.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

Seems like a Look-Ahead Alert for the Jets. How can they take the three-win Seahawks seriously? Also, it should be noted that New York is still reeling from its unnatural victory at Tennessee. Meanwhile, this could be Mike Holmgren’s final game in Seattle.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

No surprise that people are backing the Jets and fading the Seahawks. Why has the line dropped from -5 to -4?

Percentage of money on New York: 76% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Eric Mangini is 0-3 ATS on the West Coast.

Opening Line: Jets -5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather (Sunday Update): Wintry mix, 33 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Seahawks 21, Jets 19
Seahawks +3.5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 42 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Seahawks 13, Jets 3

Buffalo Bills (6-8) at Denver Broncos (8-6)
Line: Broncos by 6. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Broncos -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Broncos -7.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: Bills: OUT: DE Aaron Schobel (IR), OLB Angelo Crowell (IR), ILB John DiGiorgio (IR), CB Ashton Youboty (IR). Broncos: OUT: QB Patrick Ramsey (IR), RB Peyton Hillis (IR), RB Michael Pittman (IR), RB Andre Hall (IR), TE Nate Jackson (IR), OT Erik Pears, C Tom Nalen (IR), OLB Boss Bailey (IR).

Believe it or not, there are still two people left in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. I’ll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a detailed discussion about Episode 13, Dual, and very hot pictures of Claire. Your hram will grow like big mushroom in mushroom season!

This game is a prime target for my Survival Pick, but we’ll get to that after the matchups.

DENVER OFFENSE: What happened to Jay Cutler against the Panthers? I suspected that Carolina would win by double digits, but I thought Denver would at least keep up.

Luckily for Broncos fans, their team has an easier task against a struggling Buffalo defense. With defensive end Aaron Schobel out of the lineup, the Bills just can’t get to the quarterback (22 sacks), and thus cannot stop the pass. Jay Cutler should have a fun time slinging the ball around on Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile, Buffalo’s rush defense has been pretty pedestrian the past two months, ranking 19th in the league. The Broncos lack an every-down back, but the committee of P.J. Pope, Tatum Bell and Selvin Young will be effective enough.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It looks like Trent Edwards is going to start, which is great news for the Bills. Actually, scratch that. Make that bad news for the Bills because a victory would worsen their draft position.

Edwards could be rusty in this contest, but he can’t be any worse than the turnover-prone J.P. Zohan, who just fell behind Gibran Hamdan on the depth chart. Besides, it’s not like Edwards will be asked to do a lot of the work. Marshawn Lynch will trample Denver’s 30th-ranked rush defense, setting up some easy throws for the second-year signal caller.

RECAP: I like the Bills to cover the touchdown. There’s a good chance that Tampa Bay beats San Diego, so Denver won’t even need this contest. And if the Buccaneers lose, well, it’s not like the Broncos have covered many games this year anyway. As favorites of 3.5 or more, Denver is 0-7 against the spread.

Here’s an interesting proposition: Bill Simmons brought this up in his BS Report, and I thought it was a great idea. If you really like the Buccaneers, you’re almost better off taking the Bills moneyline. That way, if Tampa Bay wins, Denver will be lethargic, which pretty much guarantees a Buffalo victory. That will give you, as Simmons said, “more bang for your buck.”

SURVIVOR PICK: Most people have Denver left and will be inclined to take the Broncos. I wouldn’t advise doing so. I just don’t trust them. They have a great offense that can beat anyone, but they also have a terrible defense, which makes them capable of losing to anyone.

I would take the Texans this week. I hate siding with road teams, but there aren’t any better options, as far as I can tell. I mean, I’d love to take the Colts, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots and Buccaneers, but I’ve used them all.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

If the Chargers lose at Tampa Bay, the Broncos won’t have anything to play for. If the Chargers win, this will be a Sandwich Situation for Denver. Either way, the Broncos probably won’t be mentally focused for the lowly Bills.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Why would anyone bet on the Bills?

Percentage of money on Denver: 61% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Road Warrior: Coaches are 128-84 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss since 1996 (Dick Jauron 5-7).

Bills are 16-11 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.

Broncos are 6-23 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Broncos are 0-7 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more in 2008.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather (Sunday Update): Partly cloudy, 18 degrees. Light winds.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Bills 23, Broncos 20
Bills +7 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 45 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Bills 30, Broncos 23

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at Minnesota Vikings (9-5)
Line: Vikings by 3.5. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Vikings -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Vikings -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
Injuries: Falcons: OUT: WR Laurent Robinson (IR), CB Von Hutchins (IR), CB David Irons (IR). Vikings: OUT: DE Kenechi Udeze (IR), DT Pat Williams, DT Kendrick Allen (IR), ILB E.J. Henderson, CB Charles Gordon (IR), S Madieu Williams, S Michael Boulware (IR).

Bill Simmons inspired this feature. A few years ago, Simmons speculated on what Jim Haslett, a lame-duck coach with the Saints, could do to get fired. Rod Marinelli seems to be in the same position. I’m convinced Marinelli could do whatever he wants and he still wouldn’t get axed.

In fact, let’s put it to the test. Here are some things Marinelli could do and the odds that he would keep his job.

100% Job Security – Throw a pair of shoes at William Clay Ford.

100% Job Security – Sell the offensive and defensive coordinator positions to the highest bidder.

1% Job Security – Vote against Calvin Johnson to ensure that he doesn’t make the Pro Bowl.

0% Job Security – Meet secretly with Jason Witten to design plays just for him.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I still can’t get over the fact that Tarvaris Jackson tossed four touchdowns against the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense sucks, while the offense gave Minnesota the ball in good field position, but still… how do you let Tarvaris debacle you like that?

Atlanta’s secondary is better than Arizona’s, but I more concerned about the run defense. The Falcons are 28th versus the rush, so Adrian Peterson figures to eat them alive, assuming Brad Clueless gives the ball to his best player, and not Jeff Dugan or Naufahu Tahi. That should be common sense, but you never know with Coach Clueless.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Normally, I’d say the Falcons wouldn’t be able to run against the Vikings because of the Williams Wall, but Pat Williams is out. That means Minnesota’s second-ranked rush defense won’t nearly be as potent. With Pat Williams out, Atlanta can afford to double team Kevin Williams and Jared Allen, giving Michael Turner enough running room.

A double-teamed Allen also means better pass protection for Matt Ryan. The Vikings can be beaten with the pass – their aerial defense is ranked 21st in the NFL – and Roddy White is a matchup nightmare for any stop unit.

RECAP: Why are people siding with the Vikings? They’re missing one of their best players, and in my opinion, the Falcons are the better team in the first place. Even if you don’t believe so, they certainly have the vastly superior quarterback.

I don’t love Atlanta in this spot or anything, but I can’t see myself laying the points with Minnesota. Besides, this is more of a must-win for the Falcons. All the Vikings need is one win or a single Bears loss in the next two weeks to claim the NFC Norris. But if the Falcons lose here, they’re pretty much done. I don’t consider this a potential choking situation for them because they’re the road underdogs. They’re not supposed to win this contest.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

The Vikings don’t need to win this game. All they need is a single victory or just one Bears loss. Atlanta is in more of a must-win mode.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Slight action on Minnesota, but nothing major.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 61% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather (Sunday Update): Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Falcons 20, Vikings 17
Falcons +3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 43 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Falcons 24, Vikings 17

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1) at Washington Redskins (7-7)
Line: Eagles by 4.5. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Redskins -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Eagles -2.

Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Injuries: Eagles: OUT: G Shawn Andrews, G Max Jean-Gilles (IR), CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR). Redskins: OUT: OT Chris Samuels (IR), DE Phillip Daniels (IR), S Reed Doughty (IR).

The 15th installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt.

Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Week 6: Dennis Green blows a record lead and has to be taken to the mental hospital! In Week 7, Al Davis finds proof that Emmitt and Green conspired to lose on purpose. Week 8: Roger Goodell cancels all games for a mysterious reason. Week 9: A steroids scandal rocks Foxborough! Week 10: Both Emmitt and Anthony Morelli were very busy during an interesting bye week. Week 11: the Patriots get “blowed out” without Emmitt, while Morelli mysteriously avoids a suspension! Week 12: the Patriots battle the Jets for first place in the AFC East. Week 13: Emmitt and Romeo Crennel attend a charity event prior to playing Andy Reid and the 49ers. Week 14: About 100 players are suspended for violating the illegal substance policy.

Now, in Week 15, the Patriots and Bills play the NFL’s annual international game. Find out what happened on Friday! Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Despite their three-game winning streak, the Eagles still have doubters. Some point out that the team has been lucky enough to catch its opponents in poor situations – the Cardinals on a short work week; the Giants in the wake of the Plaxico Burress incident; and the Browns having no energy because Romeo Crennel ate all the food. Others, meanwhile, look back at how mightily Donovan McNabb and the rest of the squad struggled at Cincinnati and Baltimore.

I’m not sure what to make of the Eagles yet, but one thing is certain: Washington falls into the same category as Arizona, New York and Cleveland. Andy Reid and company are catching them at just the right time.

The Redskins, fading away into oblivion after a promising 6-2 start, couldn’t even contain Cedric Benson last week, as the DWI Master rushed for 73 yards and caught three balls for 88 more yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, was an efficient 16-of-29 for 209 yards and a touchdown.

Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and the rest of Philadelphia’s offense will pick up where they left off against the starving Browns. The Redskins won’t force many punts in this contest.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jim Zorn has really been exposed as an overmatched coach. I don’t know how he kicked off the season with a 6-2 start, but he can’t do anything right at the moment, whether it’s off the field (handling the Clinton Portis situation) or on the field (giving Mike Sellers two of the game’s most important carries).

The Eagles are pretty good against the run (6th), and if the Bengals could limit Portis to three yards per carry, Philadelphia should be able to do the same thing.

Meanwhile, the Redskins haven’t had a pass play of 30 yards or more since the Lions game on Oct. 26. Without worrying about any long routes, the Eagles can play closer to the line of scrimmage and prevent all of the short junk that Zorn tends to call.

RECAP: A dying Redskins team versus a red-hot Eagles squad. Theoretically, it shouldn’t get any easier than this. Even Vegas pushed this line up to five in hopes that people would back Washington as a moderately sized home dog.

I’m not buying it. The Redskins have been reeling since their win at Philadelphia, and if they couldn’t snap out of their funk against the Bengals, they won’t do it now. Also, I like the Eagles coming off a big Monday night win. Teams claiming victories of 17 points or more on Monday night have done very well against the spread historically.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Redskins have fallen apart since winning in Philly. They’re a mess, while the Eagles are rolling.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

I’m surprised this line is so high. Is Vegas trying to keep bettors off the Eagles? It’s not working.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 89% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Redskins have won 2 of the last 3 meetings.

Monday Might: Andy Reid is 4-1 ATS after a Monday night win of 17+.

Vengeance: Andy Reid is 6-3 ATS in divisional revenge games.

Eagles are 53-33 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 23-15 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.

Andy Reid is 13-6 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 or more.

Donovan McNabb is 32-19 ATS on the road since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather (Sunday Update): Partly cloudy, 32 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Redskins 7
Eagles -4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 37 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$100
Redskins 10, Eagles 3

Carolina Panthers (11-3) at New York Giants (11-3)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Giants -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Giants -3.
Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR). Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), WR Plaxico Burress, WR David Tyree (IR), DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR), S Sammy Knight (IR).

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “And sometime it’s not necessarily the rookie’s fault. Sometime the coach keeps… keep that rookie in a box.” (Commentary: One could say that Emmitt’s grammar keeps… keep him inside a box as well.)

2. “Steve Slaton is the type of running back who makes plays with his legs.” (Commentary: As opposed to a running back who makes plays with his stomach, i.e. LenDale White.)

3. “Standin on the sideline, Stu and I was watchin some guys get hit. I’m tellin you, it made me feel good that I done had retired already.” (Commentary: Thank goodness. Otherwise, we wouldn’t be able to enjoy Emmitt’s awesome analysis.)

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Brandon Jacobs was limited in practice on Wednesday, but it looks like he’ll start. That’s great news for the suddenly offensively challenged Giants, who couldn’t establish a solid running game against Dallas.

Carolina is just 22nd versus the rush, giving up 4.4 yards per carry. Denver operates its offense aerially, which would explain why it struggled so much against the Panthers. The Giants, meanwhile, engineer a run-first offense as long as Earth, Wind and Fire are all in the backfield. Jacobs should be able to flatten Carolina, setting up play-action opportunities for Eli Manning.

The Panthers are seventh against the pass, but if they have to worry about Jacobs and Ward, Manning mimic Jeff Garcia’s 320-yard performance. I wouldn’t expect the Giants to light up the scoreboard or anything, but they should be able to put up enough points to give themselves a chance to win.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: But will Carolina score more? To do so, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will have to keep churning out yardage on the ground.

Good luck with all that. Smash and Dash (sorry, Blob), trampled Tampa Bay and Denver, ranked 23rd and 30th versus the rush, respectively. The Giants are fifth.

If Carolina is limited on the ground, as I would project, New York’s pass rush will get to Jake Delhomme, forcing the inconsistent and turnover-prone quarterback into making some ill-advised throws.

RECAP: Winning at home is one thing. The Panthers have mastered that art, owning a pristine 8-0 record as hosts. However, Carolina hasn’t done as well on the road this year. The Panthers are 3-3 as visitors, but the three victories came against teams that now have losing records. The three defeats were at Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Minnesota by a combined score of 92-41.

The Giants are in a bit of a funk, but they’re the defending Super Bowl champs. They know how to win. I’ll be shocked if they don’t snap out of it.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
Battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Giants may have something to prove after losing to Dallas, but Carolina will also be hungry for a victory.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action, which is a bit surprising.

Percentage of money on New York: 55% (126,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Panthers are 27-18 ATS as an underdog the previous 45 instances.

Jake Delhomme is 28-15 ATS on the road.

Jake Delhomme is 23-7 ATS as an underdog in his career (WOW!).

Jake Delhomme is 18-10 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Giants -3.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather (Sunday Update): Cloudy, 25 degrees. Mild winds, 16 mph.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Giants 17, Panthers 10
Giants -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 37 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Giants 34, Panthers 28

Green Bay Packers (5-9) at Chicago Bears (8-6)
Line: Bears by 4. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 15): Bears -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 15): Bears -7.5.

Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Packers: OUT: OT Mark Tauscher (IR), DT Justin Harrell, ILB Nick Barnett (IR), SS Atari Bigby (IR). Bears: OUT: OT Fred Miller (IR), DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), CB Nathan Vasher (IR), CB Zackary Bowman (IR), S Brandon McGowan (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 16 NFL Look-Alike Thread, featuring Steve Sanders, a monkey in a suit and the Little Mermaid.

The last Monday nighter of the year, and ESPN set us up with this? Thanks a lot, jerks. Not that a Packers-Bears game is boring; I’m just pissed that we’re going to have to listen to the Monday night crew talk about Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre ad nauseum. Someone please shoot me now.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s pretty well known by now that Rodgers hasn’t been the problem; Green Bay’s defense has been responsible for the team’s putrid 5-9 record. The Packers can’t get to the quarterback, stop the run or contain the pass.

The last time these teams met, Green Bay limited Matt Forte to 64 yards, and Kyle Orton to 13-of-26 passing for 133 yards. However, that was Orton’s first game back from his injury. He has gotten better since then, albeit he made a few costly errors against the Saints.

Orton will be better in this contest, thus preventing Green Bay from establishing a huge lead again. That will give Matt Forte more opportunities to run the ball; he had just 16 rushes in the previous matchup. If Forte can get going, Chicago should be able to control the clock and engineer lengthy drives against a defense that can’t do anything.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: When Ryan Grant totaled 145 yards and a touchdown on 25 attempts against the Bears in Week 11, pretty much everyone was surprised. Since then, Chicago has struggled against the rush. Excluding the following Sunday’s contest against the pitiful, Steven Jackson-less Rams, the Bears have allowed more than 100 rushing yards to each back or tandem it has faced (Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew/Fred Taylor, Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush).

Grant has a good chance of eclipsing the century mark again, which will set up play-action opportunities for the red-hot Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown for at least 248 yards in each game since that victory over the Bears. Like Green Bay, Chicago has problems pressuring the quarterback. Both offenses should be able to score at will.

RECAP: I like Green Bay to cover this game. Just because the Bears need a win doesn’t mean they’re going to get one. And the arch rival Packers aren’t going to just roll over and play dead.

However, I don’t know how many units I’m going to lay yet because it depends on the Vikings-Falcons result. If Minnesota wins, the Bears won’t have anything to play for. If Minnesota loses, Chicago will be playing for its life. We’ll have our answer on Sunday evening.

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

The Bears will obviously need a win. But don’t count on the Packers simply allowing Chicago to waltz into the postseason.

Stay tuned for this one.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

All of a sudden, everyone is betting the Bears in the wake of Minnesota’s loss.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 79% (162,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Bears have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Road Warrior: Coaches are 128-84 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss since 1996 (Mike McCarthy 2-0).

Bears are 6-8 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Bears -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather (Monday Update): Partly cloudy, -2 DEGREES! Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Packers 21
Packers +4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 40 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Bears 20, Packers 17

Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games
Colts at Jaguars, Ravens at Cowboys, Dolphins at Chiefs, Saints at Lions, Bengals at Browns, Chargers at Buccaneers, 49ers at Rams, Steelers at Titans, Cardinals at Patriots

Printable version of Week 16 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Texans -1, Patriots -2 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440

Live Dog: Bengals +120 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$120

Live Dog: Falcons +150 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$150

Live Dog: Lions +250 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Panthers +160 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Seahawks +160 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$160

Live Dog: Bills +240 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$240

Pyschology Parlay: Chiefs +3.5, Lions +7, Seahawks +4, Bills +7, Eagles -4.5, Texans -7 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)