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Go to Week 7 NFL Picks - Early Games
San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)
Line: 49ers by 4. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread:
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 6):
Sunday, Oct. 20, 4:5 ET
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.
If you haven't made your Week 6 selection in the WalterFootball.com 2013 NFL Survivor Pool
, make sure you do so. There are 368 players still remaining out of the original 2,580. The Texans knocked out 60 people last week.
To see a report of how many teams are being picked for survivor this week
, click here.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE:
Colin Kaepernick had a stretch in which he struggled pretty mightily. He was responsible for seven turnovers compared to only two touchdowns between Weeks 2 and 4. He didn't have to do much versus Houston in Week 5, but he came alive this past Sunday, going 16-of-29 for 252 yards, a pair of scores and a pick versus a tough Arizona defense. There were a couple of things that caused Kaepernick to struggle, with the main factor being a lacking supporting cast. Well, that's no longer the case now that Vernon Davis is fully healthy.
Davis went nuts last week, catching eight passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. It's unlikely that he'll duplicate those numbers this Sunday, but only because the Titans will pay much more attention to him. Besides, with no Patrick Peterson to take Anquan Boldin away, Kaepernick can focus on getting the ball to his No. 1 wideout.
Kaepernick may not even need to do all that much because his running game could just do all of the work. The Titans are 24th versus the rush, having surrendered at least 90 yards on the ground to all but one of their previous five opponents. Frank Gore should have one of his vintage outings.
While the 49ers' offense has improved, the defense needs to pick up the slack. Carson Palmer went up and down the field on San Francisco's stop unit, totaling more than 400 net yards of offense. Palmer has been a turnover machine since Week 3, so if he could have success versus the 49ers, perhaps Ryan Fitzpatrick has a shot.
It won't be on Fitzpatrick to lead the charge, however. That'll be up to Chris Johnson, who has been a big disappointment this year, to the chagrin of fantasy owners everyone (i.e. the people who really pay his bills even though he doesn't realize that). Johnson is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this year, but perhaps he'll find some running room versus the 49ers, who have surrendered a combined 236 yards on the ground to their previous two opponents. If anything, Johnson will be able to do stuff in the passing game. He has 11 receptions this season, but seven have come in the past couple of weeks, as Tennessee's coaching staff finally realized that it's a good idea to get the ball to its best player. What a crazy concept.
But getting back to Fitzpatrick - he has been dreadful in two starts, tallying just one touchdown to four interceptions. However, it should be noted that he has gone up against two of the better defenses in the NFL (Chiefs, Seahawks). The 49ers have a good stop unit, but it has declined of late. Last year's San Francisco defense would've never surrendered 400 total yards of offense to the 2013 Cardinals. Fitzpatrick should be able to play better, and if he can reach Palmer's level - realistic, considering how bad Palmer has been this season - Tennessee will have a chance.
This is one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week. Everyone expects the 49ers to roll with ease. I just don't see it that way. The Titans have the tougher defense and are getting points at home versus an opponent that is feeling way too good about itself coming off two blowout home victories. This is a weird spot for the 49ers, as they have to battle an unfamiliar opponent before taking off to London. This game is essentially meaningless for San Francisco, while Tennessee will be giving it its all to avoid falling below .500.
My calculated spread for this game is 49ers -1.5, so I'm comfortable enough to wager three units on the home dog because we're getting 2.5 points of value in what appears to be a great spot for them.
The aforementioned pre-London trend also applies to the 49ers, though I'm not sure what do make of this Jake Locker news. Locker obviously makes the Titans a better team, but San Francisco may now take them more seriously. On the other hand, the coaching staff may not have game planned for Locker. This spread is +4 at Bovada, so I'm sticking with the Titans for three units.
The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
The Titans need this win. The 49ers, who don't have to prevail, travel to London next.
The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
No surprise that there's a big lean on the road favorite.
Percentage of money on San Francisco: 80% (37,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Titans are 21-8 ATS in non-conference home games.
Mike Munchak is 6-10 ATS playing a team with a winning record.
Opening Line: 49ers -5.
Opening Total: 38.5.
Week 7 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Titans 23
Titans +4 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Over 40.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
49ers 31, Titans 17
Houston Texans (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)
Line: Chiefs by 6. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 6): Chiefs -4.5.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
If you haven't seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It's free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There's no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!
By the way, you can check out the Pick Em Leaderboard here.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: There's no news regarding the Texans' quarterbacking situation quite yet. Gary Kubiak told the media that he wouldn't decide Matt Schaub's availability until later, but I just don't see how he can go back to his current starter. Schaub's confidence is clearly shaken, while his body language on the field has been absolutely horrendous.
Houston will prepare T.J. Yates and Case Keenum to start this contest. In an ideal world, the Texans would be able to ease Yates or Keenum in against a softer opponent. However, we apparently live in a cruel world because the Chiefs have the league's No. 1 defense. They just sacked the mobile Terrelle Pryor 10 times, so what's going to happen to one of these raw signal-callers when they have to deal with Kansas City's complex schemes? Houston just surrendered five sacks to the Rams, so that doesn't bode well for either young quarterback.
The Texans will have to run the hell out of the ball to give themselves a chance to put some points on the board. Arian Foster has looked great recently following a sluggish start, but he'll find it challenging to rip off big gains versus a Kansas City stop unit that has limited all but one opponent's running backs (Philadelphia) to fewer than 87 rushing yards this season.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Now that we've established the Texans won't score many points, we can acknowledge that the defense will have to bring its "A" game to stay close to the Chiefs. Given that Kansas City doesn't have an explosive offense, that's definitely possible, though it'll require the Houston defenders to actually put forth some effort in this contest, which is the exact opposite of what happened last week.
Outside of the St. Louis loss, the Texans have missed more than five tackles in only one game this year. This is key because the Chiefs rely on short passes to Jamaal Charles and Donnie Avery on third-and-long to move the chains. They've been successful with this strategy versus the crappier defenses they've played recently like the Giants, Eagles and Raiders. This won't work as well versus Houston.
It's also worth noting that the Texans have a big advantage up front. J.J. Watt plays on the same side as No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher, who has completely sucked this season. Fisher is only starting because of his draft status; if he were any ordinary player, he would've been benched by now. So, with that in mind, Houston figures to be able to pressure Alex Smith, who took three sacks in the first quarter of last week's contest.
RECAP: The Texans didn't work very well as a favorite, so perhaps they'll show more energy as an underdog. I like them quite a bit in this contest, actually. They've been embarrassed two weeks in a row. They're a team comprised of proud veterans, so they'll put forth their best effort this week, especially considering that their season is on the line.
Will that be enough though? I'd have to think so. First of all, the Chiefs are coming off a divisional victory and don't really need to win this contest. And second, this will be a low-scoring, defensive battle, which should allow Houston to stay within a touchdown. My calculated spread is -4.5, so there is some value here.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There's some sharp action on the Texans. The public, meanwhile, is all over the Chiefs because that defense is going up against Case Keenum. Well, there's another side to the game, and the Houston defense should limit Kansas City's offense. I'm still like the Texans for two units.
The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
Houston's season is on the line. The Chiefs don't need to beat them.
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Why would anyone bet on Houston?
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 75% (55,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Texans.
Texans are 34-18 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
Gary Kubiak is 1-6 ATS as an underdog following a loss as a favorite.
Chiefs are 27-12 ATS in October since 2002.
Opening Line: Chiefs -4.
Opening Total: 39.5.
Week 7 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Texans 13
Texans +6 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Under 39 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Chiefs 17, Texans 16
Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Line: Packers by 10. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -11.5.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 6): Packers -9.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Packers.
If you didn't catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 6 has been posted - Emmitt questions Bob Kraft. Meanwhile, Rex Ryan injures another quarterback.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It's difficult to lose one offensive play-maker, but two in the same game? Randall Cobb and James Jones both went down with injuries at Baltimore. Cobb is expected to be out 6-8 weeks, but Jones has a shot to suit up. The Packers will need him, as they'll have just one reliable receiver in Jordy Nelson, and he'll have to deal with Joe Haden's shutdown coverage.
I'd say it's good timing that the Packers have finally gotten their running game going. This team seemed to go 50 years without a 100-yard rusher, but rookie Eddie Lacy easily eclipsed that mark at Baltimore, rumbling over the Ravens for 120 yards on 23 carries. Repeating this may seem like a daunting task because Cleveland's stellar front seven is third against the rush (3.41 YPC), but Baltimore is 11th, and Lacy had no issues bulldozing that unit.
Aside from his pure talent, a major reason why Lacy was able to have so much success against a great Baltimore defense last week was because the Ravens were scared to death of Rodgers. They just couldn't commit to stopping Lacy. The Browns will have the same dilemma. Even though they have a great pass rush - they have 19 sacks, though that's fewer than Baltimore's 22 - they still have to worry about Rodgers burning them, even if Nelson is the only regular receiver who takes the field.
With all of that said, the Packers absolutely must convert in the red zone. They've struggled immensely deep in enemy territory; they have the fifth-worst red-zone offense in the NFL this year.
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Rodgers is awesome. On the other end of the spectrum, there's Brandon Weeden. The second-year quarterback, who just turned 30, was a complete mess against the Lions. SportsCenter only showed the horrible backhanded interception, but Weeden could've easily tossed several pick-sixes that were dropped. It's such a shame that Brian Hoyer got injured.
I suppose I can say that Weeden is playing the Packers at the right time. Clay Matthews has been out, and now Nick Perry has joined him on the sideline. Perry, a second-year rush linebacker out of USC, has finally been playing good football of late, so it's horrible timing that he had to get knocked out. Green Bay will have to roll with players named Mike Neal, Andy Mulumba and Nate Palmer at outside linebacker. I guess it's safe to say that Weeden will enjoy a clean pocket.
That's all well and good, but I don't think it'll prevent Weeden from making dumb decisions - especially considering that he won't have a ground game to complement him at all. Thanks to their stellar performance against the Ravens, the Packers have risen to seventh in ground defense (3.69 YPC allowed to opposing running backs). Willis McGahee is incredibly slow and won't threaten Green Bay's stop unit at all.
RECAP: Cleveland has the better defense. The Packers maintain a banged-up offense that settles for too many field goals. With that in mind, the Browns should stay within this double-digit spread. I may consider a unit or so on them as this week progresses, but I currently have no desire to lose more money on Weeden stupidity.
SURVIVOR PICK: Go here for my Survivor Pick Advice later tonight for some analysis.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Steven from FootballFanSpot.com posted that the Packers are 21-8 ATS at home since 2010. That would help keep me from betting on the Browns, but it wouldn't be enough to make me wager on the host. This Green Bay squad is just so limited offensively and could be flat following a close road victory at Baltimore. Then again, Brandon Weeden...
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Green Bay: 55% (33,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Browns are 17-9 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.
Packers are 21-8 ATS at home since 2010.
Aaron Rodgers is 45-27 ATS since 2009 (8-5 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
Opening Line: Packers -11.
Opening Total: 45.5.
Week 7 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Browns 16
Browns +10 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (5-1)
Packers 31, Browns 13
Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)
Line: Steelers by 2. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -2.5.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 6): Steelers -1.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Ravens.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 14, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is the Cereal Trilogy. My adventures trying three new types of cereal.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: When the Steelers lost newly acquired Levi Brown to a triceps injury right before warmups last week, I didn't think they had a chance to score very many points against the Jets and their stout pass rush. However, Kelvin Beachum stepped into the blind-side position and did an admirable job. It'll be a daunting task for him to repeat this, however; Terrell Suggs is playing great football this season, so he should be able to have his way with Beachum.
Ben Roethlisberger took four sacks at New York, so that number could be even higher in this matchup. However, Big Ben has a better supporting cast now than he did at the beginning of the year when his team began 0-4. That's because Heath Miller is back as a potent, intermediate threat. Roethlisberger loves throwing to his tight end, so not having Miller at his disposal really hurt him at the beginning of the season.
Le'Veon Bell's presence is also huge. Bell hasn't posted the best rushing stats quite yet, but he's a three-down player who happens to excel in pass protection. That's huge because he helps offset some of the offensive line's ineptitude. Even better, Bell may improve on the ground this week; another rookie just bulldozed the Ravens, after all.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It seems like a miracle every time the Ravens score because they have so many plays that go for zero or negative yardage. But then, out of nowhere, Joe Flacco hits one of his receivers for a deep pass. The Steelers have an aging, slow defensive backfield, so they'll be more susceptible. to this.
Pittsburgh also has a lacking pass rush. The Steelers of old used to be among the league leaders in sacks, so it seems almost blasphemous that only one team (Giants) has fewer sacks than they do on the season. Pittsburgh has gotten to the quarterback only seven times in 2013, which is embarrassing. This all has to be music to Joe Flacco's ears because he has been brought down behind the line of scrimmage 11 times in the past three weeks. Former Jaguar Eugene Monroe should help in that regard; he had a solid debut for his new team last week.
A big reason why the Ravens have so many negative plays is because Ray Rice doesn't appear to have any burst. Perhaps this is because of a great workload in past seasons, or maybe injuries are weighing him down; whatever it is, Rice is no longer much of a threat coming out of the backfield. The Steelers are only 19th against the rush in terms of YPC (4.07), but they shouldn't have much of an issue bottling him up.
RECAP: This is the second game in which all of the ESPN analysts will be picking one side despite the fact that the other is favored. This is a good spot for the Steelers, but I hate this spread. If Baltimore happened to be a road favorite, I'd happily take the home underdog. But there's just no value here.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I can't bet on the Steelers as a favorite, though I still do think they're the right side.
SUNDAY MORNING: Got this one wrong. Four of the six ESPN analysts have chosen the Steelers. Oh well. I didn't have action on either side.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
Another public dog.
Percentage of money on Baltimore: 71% (22,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 23 meetings (Flacco 2-6 vs. Roethlisberger).
Ravens are 15-9 ATS in road games off a home loss the previous 24 instances.
Ben Roethlisberger is 30-18 ATS vs. the AFC North.
Opening Line: Steelers -2.5.
Opening Total: 40.5.
Week 7 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Ravens 13
Steelers -2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Steelers 19, Ravens 16
Denver Broncos (6-0) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)
Line: Broncos by 6. Total: 55.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 6): Broncos -6.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Broncos.
I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around. I actually met my ex-girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, this way. We exchanged e-mails about Aaron3619 and then hit it off, ultimately meeting in July 2012.
I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.
I've added a second fake account this year - Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I've written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).
Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.
DENVER OFFENSE: Can you believe the Bronco fans actually booed their offense last week? Peyton Manning and company posted 35 on the scoreboard, yet that wasn't enough. #firstworldproblems, apparently.
Manning actually had an off day in that he was responsible for three turnovers. He had given the ball away just twice the entire year before the Jacksonville contest, so seeing him lose two fumbles and toss a pick-six was strange. However, I wouldn't put much stock into that. The Broncos as a whole were just going through the motions of battling a winless team as a four-touchdown favorite, all while looking ahead to this matchup. They'll get their act together.
I expect Manning to be sharper than ever in this matchup. He's been looking forward to this contest ever since the schedule was released. Just as Brett Favre did against the Packers the first time he battled them as a Viking, Manning will absolutely torch the Colts' defense in an effort to prove to them that management made the wrong decision by jettisoning him in favor of Andrew Luck.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Manning won't be the only Bronco who will be highly motivated. Von Miller, making his 2013 debut following his six-game suspension, will be eager to prove himself because he's been watching the rest of his teammates win without him. He'll want to show that he can be a major contributor on what could be a historic run for this squad.
Miller is one of the top defensive players in the NFL, so his impact will be tremendous. He'll put tons of pressure on Andrew Luck, who still has to deal with the fact that his offensive line isn't very good. Miller's presence will also have a huge impact on a secondary that has struggled. The Broncos will have much more success covering opposing receivers, so don't expect a Justin Blackmon-type performance from Reggie Wayne, or anything.
The Colts will attempt to establish the run in an attempt to eat up clock and keep Manning off the field. They'll be unsuccessful, however. Trent Richardson hasn't been able to find any running lanes behind his poor offensive line, and he'll struggle to do so once again, given that Denver has the second-ranked ground defense in terms of YPC.
RECAP: All of my numbers say this spread is right where it should be. My calculated number is Denver -6. However, sometimes it's not just about numbers and stats. This game means more to Manning than anything else, save for a second Lombardi Trophy. Manning, who always thrives in night games, will absolutely destroy his former team.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm tempted to bet more on the Broncos, but my numbers still say Indianapolis is the right side. I guess I remember being burned in a similar circumstance when Denver played Dallas.
The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
I'd have to think Peyton Manning wants revenge more than anything.
The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
No surprise people are betting Peyton Manning.
Percentage of money on Denver: 80% (37,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
Peyton Manning is 36-23 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
Peyton Manning is 12-6 ATS on Sunday Night Football since 2004.
Andrew Luck is 6-0 ATS off a loss.
Andrew Luck is 8-3 ATS at home.
Opening Line: Broncos -5.5.
Opening Total: 56.
Week 7 NFL Pick: Broncos 45, Colts 27
Broncos -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Over 55.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Colts 39, Broncos 33
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6)
Line: Giants by 4. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 6): Giants -3.5.
Monday, Oct. 21, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 7 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Giants.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here's what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of North Jersey, home of the Giants, who are the laughing stock of the NFL. The Eagles beat them two weeks ago because they are trash. Horrible, terrible trash. The Giants have always been and will always be trash. Go Vikings, wooooooo!!!
Emmitt: Roman, you have to be less biasness when you announcin' football games in the National League of Football. If you less biasness then you has more belief, and if you has more belief, people not think you biasness!
Reilly: You're right, Emmitt. I have to stop it with that. But how can I stop it when the Giants are so stupid and suck so much? HAHAHAHAHA! E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
Network Executive: Roman, I mean Kevin, we've decided that we have to replace you with someone else this week because you're way too biasness, I mean biased.
Reilly: With who? I'm not biased at all!!! E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
Phil Simms: Oh boy, it's going to be a blast calling a game for my former team. Fortunately, I am an automaton who is incapable of having any emotion, so I will not root for the Giants.
Reilly: Eww, it's Phil Simms! He used to quarterback the stinky Giants! Eww!!!
Davis: Phil Simms actually quarterbacked the Giants from 1979 to 1993. Did you know that, Kevin? He won a Super Bowl in 1990. Did you know that, Kevin? Let's look at some of his statistics from that season, Kevin. He completed 59.2 percent of his passes. How about his passing yards, Kevin? He threw for 2,284. What about passing touchdowns, Kevin? Fifteen of those. What about interceptions, Kevin? How about only four! Kevin, want to guess what his yards per attempt was? How about 7.3. Kevin, want to guess how many sacks he took? Oh, just 20. What about rushing yards, Kevin, those are always fun? Sixty-one yards on the ground for Phil! What about...
Reilly: Shut up, idiot, no one cares about Phil Simms' rushing yardage.
Millen: Speak for yourself, Kevin. Phil, I can't help help but notice how impressive those statistics are.
Simms: Oh, you think those stats are good? I think they're good myself. Do you want to know what my teammates thought about those stats? Well, they thought they were pretty good too. But what about my fantasy owners, what did they think? Well, not many people played fantasy football back then. What did people do instead, you ask? People were more active then. What did they do to be more active? Why, they played sports outside, of course. What kind of sports? Oh, I don't know, football, basketball and maybe even baseball.
Millen: Phil, I love how you answer your own questions like that. What are you doing later tonight after the game? I have two kielbasas in my room with our names on them.
Griese: I like kielbasas.
Reilly: Trust me, senile man, you don't want those kind of kielbasas.
Tollefson: Guys, Phil and I are going out on the town afterward. We're going to pick up a couple of women, taking them back to our hotel room and making them cook and clean for us naked.
Edwards: I'M TIRED OF THIS! TIRED OF YOU! TIRED OF EVERYTHING! SO OFFENSIVE TO WOMEN! WOMEN DO MORE THAN COOK! WOMEN DO MORE THAN CLEAN! WOMEN SHOULDN'T JUST BE NAKED! WOMEN ARE SMART! WOMAN ARE INTELLIGENT! WOMEN CAN SUCCEED! WOMEN CAN THRIVE! WOMEN ARE GREAT! WOMEN ARE THE BEST! YOU'RE THE BEST! I MEAN YOU'RE THE WORST! SO SEXIST! I CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE! CAN'T DO IT ANYMORE! CAN'T DO IT NO MORE! HERM QUITS! HERM'S OUT OF HERE! HERM'S DONE! HERM'S... uhh... umm...
Network Executive: Herm, you can't quit because you're under contract until 2020.
Reilly: God damn it, I was hoping I'd finally not have to deal with that idiot anymore. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I thought the Vikings would have a spirited performance for Adrian Peterson, but it was anything but. The entire team sucked so bad that Peterson didn't even have a chance to run. He received just 10 carries versus Carolina. He managed to turn them into 62 yards, but couldn't handle the ball very much because the Panthers were so far ahead throughout. On the bright side, he did gain 6.2 yards per carry - the second game in a row in which he eclipsed the six-yard barrier, thanks to Pro Bowl fullback Jerome Felton - so maybe he can continue to run well with a greater workload in this contest.
Having said that, the Giants are difficult to run on. Stopping ground attacks is actually the one thing New York's defense does well; the unit is sixth in that department in terms of YPC (3.52). Still, Peterson should be able to approach the century mark just based on talent alone.
The Vikings will have to avoid turnovers this time. Matt Cassel tossed two picks against Carolina, including one in enemy territory on opening drive, which really set the tone for the game. Josh Freeman has been named the starter this week, and he figures to be an upgrade, though only by default. Freeman is inaccurate and poor at reading defenses, but he at least has a big arm that can threaten New York's atrocious secondary. Freeman, unlike Cassel and Christian Ponder, can get the ball to Greg Jennings downfield. This could open up running room for Peterson.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: As bad as the Vikings' scoring attack was last week, the defense was even worse. The stop unit showed no interest in tackling or putting any pressure on the quarterback. Cam Newton had a clean pocket all afternoon, which has to be music to Eli Manning's ears, considering how many times he's been pressured this season. Now, before you think Minnesota will have more success this week because of New York's poor offensive line, keep in mind that the Panther blockers aren't very good either.
Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that Manning won't be sacked at all; I just expect him to have more time than usual. And if that's the case, he and his three stud receivers will absolutely torch a Minnesota secondary that features one of the worst cornerbacks in football. Josh Robinson, a third-round pick from the 2012 NFL Draft, has remarkably surrendered 39 completions out of the 42 targets thrown his way. Robinson is the team's worst defensive back, but safety Jamarca Sanford stinks as well.
Some downfield passing will open up running lanes for Brandon Jacobs, who ran like it was 2008 this past Thursday. Jacobs simply couldn't be tackled, and I don't see why that would change in this matchup; DeAngelo Williams, of all running backs, just enjoyed a big game.
RECAP: The Giants should win their first game of the year. I mean, they're favored, after all, but I feel like the extra time they had off will be a big boost. Also keep in mind that Minnesota has an atrocious record in outdoor games.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I discussed my issues in the Week 8 NFL Picks page. Long story short, I need to be smarter with my picks by avoiding betting on "poisonous teams." The Giants are poisonous. The Vikings are as well, so I may miss out on a unit, but this has to be the beginning of smarter handicapping on my part. At any rate, this spread has risen to -4, so I don't want any part of this game.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
A good chunk of the money is on the host.
Percentage of money on New York: 67% (62,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Giants.
Vikings are 9-20 ATS outdoors since 2008.
Opening Line: Giants -3.
Opening Total: 47.
Week 7 NFL Pick: Giants 31, Vikings 24
Giants -4 (0 Units)
Over 48 (0 Units)
Week 7 NFL Picks - Early Games
New England?at?NY Jets,
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Teaser: Bengals +8.5, Ravens +8.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Moneyline Underdog: Rams +255 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
Fantasy Football Rankings - Aug. 5
2017 NFL Mock Draft - July 29
2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 28
2016 NBA Mock Draft - June 29
2016 NBA Mock Draft - May 7
2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 30
NFL Picks - Feb. 1
NFL Free Agents
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 (-$770)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2014): -$65
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-41, 55.0% (+$1,500)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 12-17-1, 41.4% (-$1,990)
2014 Season Over-Under: 144-119-2, 54.8% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$630
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,157-1,978-117, 52.2% (+$10,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 694-624-31 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 288-251-11 (53.4%)
Career Over-Under: 1,685-1,655-48 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-19 (61.2%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Divisional: 36-39 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 14-19 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 29-25 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 47-41 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 35-21 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 16-13 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)