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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)

NFL Picks (2011): 76-78-7 (-$2,965)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 21, 5:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks - Late Games

New York Jets (5-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5)
Line: Jets by 6. Total: 40.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Jets -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Jets -3.
Thursday, Nov. 17, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Week 10 Recap: Two winning weeks in a row. Yippee! I hit my November October NFL Pick of the Month with the Patriots +2, but that didn't stop the hate mail coming in. I'll have that for you later.

I should note that Facebook friend Mohamed E. posted the following on my wall:

My great-great-great-great-great grandfather's spirit came to me and he wanted me to tell you that he has finally decided to forgive you for pissing on his grave. :D

I apparently urinated on Mohamed E's great-great-great-great grandfather's grave. My Pick of the Month hit, and I even had a special teams score go my away Monday night. Sorry Mohamed E's great-great-great-great grandfather!

I'll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Jets think they "ground and pound," eh? The Broncos ran the ball 55 times last week, and the Chiefs, who ranked 10th versus the rush going into the contest, had no answer for it. The Jets, by the way, are 17th (4.3 YPC).

Tim Tebow's such a running threat that it really opens up lanes for the backs. Lance Ball even looked good at Arrowhead. Ball may not be needed much, however, as Willis McGahee has a good chance of playing. McGahee has been cleared to practice, so we'll see what happens. Even if he can't go though, Denver won't be completely screwed or anything with just Ball.

Much is being made of Tebow's two completions. Well, he threw just eight times, and one incompletion was a deep drop by Eric Decker. What's key is that Denver's run-friendly offense means that Darrelle Revis won't be much of a factor.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets will have to attempt to establish a strong ground attack of their own because Mark Sanchez was shaky at times against the Patriots. "Ground and pound" will be in full effect, as the Broncos just surrendered 110 rushing yards (21 carries) to the Chiefs.

Still though, the Jets ran pretty well against the Patriots and scored only 14 points offensively. Champ Bailey will smother Santonio Holmes, leaving Plaxico Burress as Sanchez's primary option. I don't think Burress looked right in the New England game after he was bent over backward on the play in which the Patriots were incorrectly whistled for a personal foul on a defenseless receiver (when Devin McCourty was knocked out).

This may not even matter if the Jets can't pass protect. Sanchez took five sacks Sunday night, and there may not be enough days off to adjust the protection schemes against the Broncos, who have a whopping 17 sacks in their previous five games.

RECAP: This spread is out of control. It should be Jets -3 at the most. The Broncos are on fire, as all the players believe in Tebow.

Thursday night teams have a huge advantage because traveling on three days rest is difficult - especially if you have to go across the country. The Jets, coming off an emotional loss to New England, will not be prepared for this contest.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
The Jets just lost an emotional game to the Patriots, and now they have to travel on a short work week.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Bettors don't believe in Tim Tebow.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 80% (79,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Broncos are 4-15 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 19 instances.
  • Broncos are 6-13 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Jets -5.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Broncos 17, Jets 16
    Broncos +6 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Under 40 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Broncos 17, Jets 13
    Broncos-Jets Recap

    Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-7)
    Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Bills -1.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Dolphins -1.5.
    Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

    As promised, here are a couple of hate mails. The first came late Thursday night after my Chargers -7 pick failed:

    Sorry, I got excited for a second there.

    Here's the hate mail I mentioned earlier. I received this in the first half of the Patriots-Jets game when New York briefly held a lead:

    Epic fail, T.J. Epic fail.

    T.J. did respond to me, and in a pathetic attempt to save face, he attacked my Web site, calling it "s***ty." Ad Hominem much?

    Vegas Recap: This was a slightly winning week for the sportsbooks, which had to be a relief for them after losing for multiple Sundays in a row. They won with the Raiders, Cowboys and 49ers, but lost with the Steelers, Texans, Seahawks and Patriots. That's 3-4, but they obtained the juice and also received more money from bettors who included the Eagles in their teasers.

    I'll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I'll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills are falling apart. They were already missing their left tackle. Now, center Eric Wood is done for the year with a torn ACL. You really have to wonder how Buffalo is going to block a Miami front seven that has 15 sacks in its previous four contests.

    This is not what a slumping Ryan Fitzpatrick needed. Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions to just two touchdowns the past couple of weeks. Making matters worse, Steve Johnson is dinged up with a shoulder injury. He could play, but he definitely won't be 100 percent.

    The Bills won't even be able to run the ball as much as they'd like to. The Dolphins have done a brilliant job of shutting down the run the previous three weeks, limiting the opposition to 200 yards on 60 carries.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins, conversely, will be able to pound the rock with Reggie Bush, who has run well recently. The Bills have been a mess against the rush since losing Pro Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams. Three of their previous four opponents have gained at least 129 yards on the ground.

    Matt Moore will once again capitalize off Bush's running. He's been sacked just twice the past two weeks, which is a good indicator that he'll be well protected because Buffalo has just one sack since Week 5 if you exclude an obvious outlier against the pathetic Redskins.

    Moore has looked pretty good recently, and I don't see why that couldn't continue. The Bills rank 25th against the pass (7.9 YPA).

    RECAP: This one is pretty tough. My gut says the Dolphins will win. Buffalo is a mess with all of its injuries, yet the public continues to back them for some strange reason.

    My mind is telling me to pick Buffalo, however. Underdogs coming off a blowout of 29 points or more are 59-33 against the spread since 2002 if you exclude Week 17.

    I'm going with my gut here, but I obviously will not be betting this contest.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
    I guess this seems too easy for bettors. The Bills have to beat the Dolphins, right?
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 77% (37,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Dolphins have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Bills are 19-11 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Dolphins -2.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Bills 13
    Dolphins -3 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 43 (0 Units) -- Push; $0
    Dolphins 35, Bills 8

    Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
    Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 40.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Ravens -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Ravens -9.
    Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.

    Seven weeks ago, I showed you the following G-chat messages from someone who called himself "The Real John." I also made fun of him:

    I don't know what's more disturbing - the fact that TheRealJohn is "bedding" (a.k.a. having sexy time) with American futbol, or that he actually has "20K" to bet despite the fact that he doesn't know how to spell "betting" or "Walter" or "sure."

    The Real John didn't take too kindly to this. He replied with more incoherent messages:

    I've since determined that The Real John is betting with Zimbabwe dollars (30,000 Zimbabwe dollars equals $1 U.S.) and that he bangs deformed Asian chicks with unibrows.

    The Real John sent me an e-mail last Sunday night as the Ravens were beating the Steelers:

    Poor guy. The "b1rdmen" didn't beat the Bears, so he couldn't get the type of girls he was hoping for. In fact, only one chick showed up. Here she is:

    God damn it. I missed the party of the century.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Bengals have a great defense. Or rather, had. Adding injury to insult, they lost Pro Bowl cornerback Leon Hall to a ruptured Achilles' tendon. This is obviously going to have a major impact on their 11th ranking against the pass.

    Joe Flacco should be able to take advantage of this, but who really knows how he'll perform? Flacco is so erratic, playing like an All-Pro one week and then flopping the next. It seems like he gets up for tough competition. Will he put the Hall-less Bengals in that category?

    Cincinnati still ranks third versus the rush, though Rashard Mendenhall and the Steelers had no issues pounding the rock this past Sunday, compiling 107 yards on 27 carries. Ray Rice has the potential to have a big day.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Hall injury was obviously the worst news for the Bengals, but it also looked pretty bleak when A.J. Green hurt his knee after making an acrobatic touchdown catch over two defenders. Green didn't do anything the rest of the afternoon, which really hurt Cincinnati's offense. Fortunately, Green isn't expected to miss any time going forward, per Marvin Lewis.

    Still though, it's the Ravens. How can a rookie quarterback possibly succeed against them? Well, Tarvaris Jackson didn't have too much difficulty doing so last week, going 17-of-27 for 217 yards in an upset victory. If Jackson can look decent without having Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin for half the game (concussions), why can't Dalton?

    What helped Jackson was a strong ground attack, spearheaded by a suddenly spry Marshawn Lynch. The Ravens are still second versus the rush though, so I'll chalk that up as a fluke. Besides, Cedric Benson is fat and slow.

    RECAP: These games are usually close. Check out the margin of victory since 2006: 6, 6, 7, 14, 7, 31, 3, 10, 5, 6.

    The Bengals typically play extremely well as underdogs (17-7 against the spread since 2009), so I'm going to take the points.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Action has evened out.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 55% (40,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Bengals have won 9 of the last 13 meetings.
  • Bengals are 17-7 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
  • Ravens are 28-18 ATS in November.
  • Ravens are 15-7 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -9.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 60 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Bengals 17
    Bengals +7 (0 Units) -- Push; $0
    Under 40.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Ravens 31, Bengals 24

    Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-6)
    Line: Browns by 1.5. Total: 34.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Browns -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Browns -3.
    Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

    Some random college football notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. If you missed it, I posted my thoughts on the Penn State scandal and Joe Paterno firing here.

    Speaking of which, I was at a bar Friday night, and as a Penn State alumnus, I had to listen to some Notre Dame fan repeatedly claim, "Notre Dame is the moral compass of college football!"


    2. Speaking of which, I have a funny joke for you guys:

    If an older man who chases after young boys is called a cougar, is an older woman who does the same a Nittany Lion?

    Wait, I think I got that wrong.

    3. I really hate college football. I just don't feel like watching it anymore. I was hoping for BCS mayhem with Stanford and Boise State winning out, but that's not going to happen. My only hope is for LSU and Oklahoma State to lose, so Houston can end up as the only unbeaten team in the country. But since college football sucks, Houston won't be invited to play in the national championship, despite the fact that all they do is win 70-10 every week.

    If I were a college football voter, I'd place Houston at No. 1 right now just to spite the system. The idiot BCS backers proclaim that the regular season is the playoff. Well, I thought if you keep winning in the playoffs, you eventually win the championship. Why then does that not apply to Houston? What's the point of Houston even playing any games?

    It'll be the worst if Oklahoma State is the only team that loses. If that's the case, we'll have to see LSU versus Alabama again. Can't wait for that Thomas Jefferson versus A.J. McCrapon quarterbacking matchup!

    I'm done watching this crap.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Rejoice, Browns fans, because there's a chance Monatrio Hardesty could play. Yes, it's true! No longer will you have to watch Chris Ogbonnaya drop to the ground on first contact. How exciting!

    As discussed ad nauseum recently, Cleveland has absolutely no talent on offense. The main threat is Greg Little - and he's just as much of a liability as a weapon for Colt McCoy because he's prone to running incorrect routes and dropping passes.

    The Jaguars have a great defense, ranking eighth versus the rush (3.9 YPC) and sixth against the pass (6.4 YPA). They've also accumulated 18 sacks since Week 4. However, like the Bengals, they just lost a starting cornerback (Rashean Mathis) to a season-ending injury. Mathis tore his ACL at Indianapolis, which will obviously affect Jacksonville going forward. However, the Browns don't have the quarterback, offensive line or skill players to take advantage of this.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars will easily have the best offensive player on the field in Maurice Jones-Drew, and he'll effortlessly trample a Cleveland "stop" unit that has surrendered at least 100 rushing yards in all but one contest this year. Hell, they're just two weeks removed from allowing the Texans to rush for 261.

    Jones-Drew will need to be a huge factor because Blaine Gabbert stinks. He has no pocket presence, and many of his throws are off the mark. Battling an anemic Indianapolis secondary, Gabbert was just 14-of-21 for 118 yards, one touchdown and an interception, which was good enough for a pedestrian YPA of 5.6 - sadly, his highest such number since Week 5.

    The Browns actually do a good job against the pass because of Pro Bowl corner Joe Haden, so if the Jaguars fall behind early because of a fluke special teams score of fumble recovery, they'll be in trouble.

    RECAP: I'm not touching this game with a 10-foot pole. I refuse to bet the Browns right now without getting at least a touchdown, while the Jaguars shouldn't be favored on the road over anyone except the Colts.

    I'm taking the Browns as a public fade, but there's no way in hell I'm betting this game.

    Crazy fact: This is only the second time in NFL history that a team with a winning percentage of .333 or worse is favored on the road following a victory as a road favorite. The other instance occurred back in 1989, when the Redskins were -2.5 at New Orleans. Washington won by only two.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    A pretty big lean on the Jaguars.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 69% (26,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Jaguars are 12-24 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Browns are 3-9 ATS as favorites since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Browns -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 36.
  • Weather: Showers, 54 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Browns 16, Jaguars 13
    Browns -1.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 34 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Browns 14, Jaguars 10

    Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-7)
    Line: Vikings by 2. Total: 45.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Vikings -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Raiders -1.5.
    Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Raiders.

    If you've been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. Last week, I posted an e-mail from a Richard Held, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a "lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP)."

    Here was my response, with a reference from my Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month entry:

    Richard Held,

    Hello, my name is Matthew Millen Kim. I won your Facebook contest. What a great month and a half this has been. First, I got to celebrate Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month, and now I won 750,000.00 GBP.

    I'm going to assume GBP stands for Green Bay Packers. I would love 750,000.00 Green Bay Packers. Heck, one makes me horny.

    1. FULL NAMES: _Matthew Millen Kim____ 2.ADDRESS:__2000 Brush St_____ 3.CITY:__Detroit___
    4. STATE: __MI____ 5.POSTCODE___48226____ 6.COUNTRY___USA___
    7. SEX: __B____ 8.AGE:____53____ 9.OCCUPATION:__Kielbasa Stuffer____
    10. TELEPHONE/MOBILE NUMBERS: __(313) 262-2000___ 11.FAX:___(313) 262-2000_____

    Before you enter in my information, is it OK if I only use Facebook for lewd activities like downloading pictures of 100-percent USDA Men and Photoshopping kielbasas in their rear end?


    Matthew Millen Kim

    In case you were wondering, the address and phone number I gave to them belongs to Ford Field. I wish I could see the look on the Ford Field employees when someone calls up asking for a "Matthew Millen Kim."

    At any rate, I received two responses. One was unbelievably hilarious. I need to show you a screenshot because you wouldn't believe me otherwise:

    The other e-mail asked me to fill out a form. I sent it back to them:

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: Carson Palmer is back. Well, at least he was last Thursday night. Palmer was brilliant against the Chargers, going 14-of-20 for 299 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Even better, Palmer has had a profound impact on his receivers. Mike Mayock pointed out that Palmer gave Denarius Moore tips on how to beat coverage during the bye. All Moore did was catch five balls for 123 yards and two touchdowns.

    With Moore on the verge of breaking out as a stud receiver, the Vikings are in trouble. Top corner Antoine Winfield is out for the year with a broken clavicle, further hindering an already hobbled secondary.

    As good as the Raiders looked offensively at San Diego, they'll be even better once Darren McFadden returns to the lineup. McFadden is not expected back this week though, so it'll be more of Michael Bush. Minnesota is pretty stout versus the rush (6th, 3.7 YPC), so Palmer will have to do more of the work this Sunday.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Oakland, meanwhile, has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The unit ranks 29th, giving up 5.1 yards per carry. Containing Adrian Peterson will obviously be a huge problem.

    Christian Ponder needs all the help he can get right now. His offensive line blows, and as we saw Thursday night, the Raiders can really get to the quarterback. Kamerion Wimbley abused Brandyn Dombrowski, and he should be able to continue his tirade against pedestrian left tackle Charlie Johnson. Ponder also has only one semi-reliable target in Percy Harvin, who is still raw as a receiver. It's tough throwing against the Raiders, who are seventh against the pass in terms of YPA (6.6).

    RECAP: I don't know how the Vikings are going to get up for the Raiders. They're coming off a brutal defeat at the hands of their arch rivals, and now have to play what happens to be an essentially meaningless game against a 5-4 AFC foe. Also, teams coming off Monday night blowouts fare poorly against the spread, as noted below.

    However, there are some things in Minnesota's favor. Excluding underdogs of more than a touchdown, teams that lose the spread by 25-plus points are 54-22 ATS in non-divisional matchups since 2002. This trend will be a factor in another selection.

    As for this one, I'm going to stay away. The Vikings would have been favored prior to that Monday night blowout, so we've lost all line value.

    The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
    I have no idea how the Vikings are going to get up for this game.

    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
    Everyone is all over the Raiders.
  • Percentage of money on Oakland: 78% (36,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Monday Misery: Teams coming off MNF losses of 17+ are 17-36 ATS since 1999.
  • Raiders are 4-12 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Raiders -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Raiders 27, Vikings 23
    Raiders +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 45.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Raiders 27, Vikings 21

    Carolina Panthers (2-7) at Detroit Lions (6-3)
    Line: Lions by 7. Total: 47.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Lions -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Lions -6.
    Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Lions.

    Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here's the Fantasy Draft - Round 3:

    Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 3. When we left off, everyone was making perverted comments toward Kara Henderson.

    Dennis Green: Can we f***ing finish this draft? If this takes much longer, I'm going to say some f***ing perverted comments to you Rich!

    Rich Eisen: OK, I look forward to that.

    Brian Billick: It's my turn, Rich, but I want everyone to note that I didn't make any sexual remarks toward Miss Henderson.

    Kara Henderson: Liar! You said, "Want a kiss."

    Brian Billick: You're mistaken, Miss Henderson. I was looking in the mirror when I said that. I was asking myself if I wanted a kiss.

    Dennis Green: That's pretty f***ing weird, dude!

    Brian Billick: Weird? What's weird? Every night, I look into the mirror and ask, "Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who's the smartest football analyst of them all?" And the mirror always responds, "You, my coach, are smartest of all."

    Rich Eisen: Umm... what?

    Brian Billick: At least that's what it always said. Last Friday, I asked it again, and this time, it said, "coach, you are full smart, 'tis true, but Marshall Faulk is smarter than you because he will pick the Raiders to beat the Chargers on a Thursday night during the season."

    Marshall Faulk: It's my turn? I'll pick Laveranues Coles.

    Charles Davis: Great pick! He's in my Tier 2!

    Rich Eisen: No, it's not your turn. It's Brian Billick's turn, and he won't pick!

    Kara Henderson: He's taking forever, but I'm at least relieved that he's one of the few people in this room who hasn't hit on me.

    Brian Billick: You are so beautiful, Brian. So smart. Want a kiss?

    Kara Henderson: OK, maybe it'd be better if he did hit on me.

    Dennis Green: Pick, you f***ing idiot! I'm getting tired of this s***! How many f***ing hours is this third round going to f***ing last!?

    Brian Billick: I will pick Brian Billick to coach my fantasy team. No matter what my magic mirror says, he is the smartest of them all.

    Charles Davis: Rich, I can't find Brian Billick on my cheat sheet!

    Rich Eisen: That's because he's not... ugh... let's take a break while I find some Advil. Stay tuned next week for more of Round 3. This draft will never end.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: Let's give Cam Newton a mulligan. Newton has been brilliant all year, but finally struggled against the Titans last week.

    Newton's too good not to rebound, but that'll be difficult against a Detroit defense ranked second versus the pass (5.9 YPA). The Lions put an immense amount of pressure on the quarterback (26 sacks), which doesn't bode well for Newton, who has taken 12 sacks in his previous three games.

    Detroit's weakness is against the run; the team ranks 27th in that category, surrendering close to five yards per carry. Jonathan Stewart looked good prior to his team's Week 9 bye, so establishing him will be key to keeping Ndamukong Suh and company away from Newton.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: Speaking of running backs, the Lions have looked like absolute crap since losing Jahvid Best. Their running game is non-existent, which would explain why they've been limited to fewer than 20 points in three of their previous four contests.

    Carolina's defense is awful though, so Detroit won't have any issues scoring Sunday, right? Well, not really. Matthew Stafford's health is a problem. He fractured the index finger on his throwing hand and consequently struggled at Chicago. Calvin Johnson also being dinged up didn't help matters.

    Meanwhile, Detroit's offensive line continues to be an issue, as Stafford has taken 12 sacks the past three weeks. Carolina, meanwhile, accumulated seven sacks in the two weeks prior to its bye, so it can definitely take advantage of the Lions' weak front.

    RECAP: The Patriots were my NFL Pick of the Month for October since I didn't have one in that month. The Panthers are my November NFL Pick of the Month for a multitude of reasons:

    1. The Lions are way overrated. They've dropped three of four. And even their prior wins weren't very convincing. They let a discombobulated Bears team hang around in an emotional Monday night game back in Week 5. Before that, Detroit needed an epic Tony Romo implosion and a furious comeback against Donovan McNabb to beat the Cowboys and Vikings, respectively. Their one convincing victory since Week 2 occurred at Denver, but that was before Johnny Lawrence Fox catered the offense to suit Tim Tebow's strengths.

    1a. All of this, by the way, was before Stafford fractured his finger. The Lions are going to be even worse now.

    2. The Panthers are underrated. I love Bill Simmons, but he made some outrageous comments on his recent podcast, proclaiming that Carolina is terrible and happens to be equal to Cleveland.

    The Panthers stunk last week (possibly because of post-bye weirdness), but they nearly beat the Packers (loss by 7), Bears (loss by 5), Saints (loss by 3) and Falcons (close until a fluke turnover in the fourth quarter). The Browns, meanwhile, have scored more than 17 points only once all year, and the one outlier doesn't really count because it happened against the Colts.

    Simmons should apologize to all the Panthers fans out there. Those 12 people were really hurt by his remarks.

    3. So, we've established that the Lions are overrated and the Panthers are underrated. The former is also in a really poor spot for four reasons:

    3a. Detroit is coming off an emotional defeat against Chicago. How is it going to get up for a 2-7 Carolina squad?

    3b. The Lions have the Packers and Saints after this "easy" game. They play the former just four days afterward.

    3c. Speaking of Green Bay, e-mailer Josh P. pointed out that teams are 1-7 against the spread this year prior to battling the defending Super Bowl champs. This makes sense because teams understandably have to gear up to beat the Packers.

    3d. Detroit is a disgraceful 0-6 against the spread prior to its Thanksgiving game since 2005.

    4. Carolina, on the other hand, is in a great spot: Excluding underdogs of more than a touchdown, teams that lose the spread by 25-plus points are 54-22 ATS in non-divisional matchups since 2002.

    5. Vegas dynamics even work in Carolina's favor. About three-quarters of the betting action is on the Lions, yet this spread hasn't moved. Vegas is currently in the midst of having a losing year, so it has to rebound eventually, right?

    The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
    The Lions suffered a tough loss to the Bears. Can they get up for the Panthers, especially with the Packers and Saints coming up?

    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    Tons of money on the Lions.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 69% (32,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • Cam Newton is 5-3 ATS.
  • Lions are 11-3 ATS after losing by 20+ points since 2007.
  • Lions are 0-6 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.
  • Lions are 7-15 ATS against losing teams the previous 21 instances.
  • Opening Line: Lions -7.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Lions 20
    Panthers +7 (7 Units - November NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$770
    Under 47.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Lions 49, Panthers 35

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (9-0)
    Line: Packers by 13.5. Total: 48.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Packers -13.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Packers -14.
    Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Packers.

    As a reminder, get your pick in for the 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now only 7 (!!!) entries remaining from the 2,749 that started. Everyone lost with the Eagles and Ravens last week. Of those who survived: Five picked the Packers, one selected the Texans, and one brave soul rolled with the Dolphins.

    Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it's good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: This isn't even fair. The Buccaneers can't tackle and are undisciplined. How are they going to stop a guy who could go down as the greatest quarterback in NFL history?

    As I write every week, the only way the Packers don't score into the high 30s or 40s is if they shoot themselves in the foot with stupid mistakes. Aaron Rodgers is in a zone, and just has way too many talented weapons at his disposal.

    Green Bay will also be able to run the ball efficiently. The Buccaneers have embarrassed themselves by surrendering a combined 537 rushing yards in their previous three games.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers have three major issues on offense. The first is that their best skill-position player, LeGarrette Blount, can't be utilized if the team falls into a hole. Blount struggles with the passing aspect of the game, so he won't be on the field if Tampa fals behind early. Not that running the ball will be easy against the Packers in the first place.

    The second problem is that Josh Freeman is struggling with his decision-making. If that continues this Sunday, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams will notch a couple of interceptions.

    The final issue is that the Buccaneers simply have no explosive talent on offense. They simply won't threaten a Green Bay defense that looks like it's finally coming together and retaining Super Bowl form.

    RECAP: Rodgers is 30-14 against the spread since 2009. As I keep writing, if you bet against him, you might as well light your money on fire.

    The only concern with betting the Packers is that they might be looking ahead to playing the Lions and Giants. But they're such a strong-minded veteran team that it shouldn't be much of an issue.

    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    A potential Breather Alert for the Packers, who have the Lions and Giants after this easy victory.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    No surprise that the public loves Green Bay.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 83% (41,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Monday Magic: Teams coming off MNF wins of 17+ are 40-22 ATS since 1999.
  • Packers are 22-11 ATS after Monday Night Football in the previous 33 instances.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 30-14 ATS since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Packers -14.5.
  • Opening Total: 49.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 34 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Packers 41, Buccaneers 10
    Packers -13.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 48.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Packers 35, Buccaneers 26

    Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (3-6)
    Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 41.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Cowboys -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Cowboys -7.
    Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

    If you didn't see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 10 has been posted - the Philadelphia Eagles have hired Jerry Sandusky, who then blows the whistle on Michael Vick.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Mike Shanahan says he's going with Rex Grossman this week. This obviously means that Grossman will get the nod. Or perhaps John Blegh. After all, Shanahan named Blegh his starting quarterback last week before swapping in Grossman hours prior to kickoff. And don't get me started on the running back situation...

    All of this doesn't matter, however, because the Redskins won't score many points. If it's Grossman, there will be red-zone interceptions. If it's Blegh, there will be five billion checkdown passes.

    The Redskins will be really challenged offensively until Santana Moss returns to the lineup - especially in the wake of Leonard Hankerson's season-ending injury. The rookie out of Miami had a solid outing against the Dolphins, but was placed on injured reserve because of a torn labrum.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: Dallas couldn't really do anything offensively the last time these teams met. If you recall, former Cowboy Stephen Bowen simulated the snap count, causing Dallas to have multiple botched snaps. I expect Tony Romo and company to be prepared this time.

    Romo is on fire, by the way. Last week was his best performance as a pro, as far as I'm concerned. He was so precise that he looked like Aaron Rodgers. And like Rodgers, Romo has a plethora of great talents at his disposal.

    The Redskins have no chance, both aerially and on the ground. Three of their previous four opponents have gained at least 116 rushing yards. Make it four of five, since DeMarco Murray is a beast.

    RECAP: The Cowboys should be able to win easily. The road team usually covers in this rivarly, and Washington is simply unbettable right now.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    No one wants any part of the Redskins right now.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (41,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • History: Road Team has covered 7 of the past 8 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Redskins 10
    Cowboys -7 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 41.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Cowboys 27, Redskins 24

    Week 11 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Seahawks at Rams, Cardinals at 49ers, Titans at Falcons, Chargers at Bears, Eagles at Giants, Chiefs at Patriots

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks - Late Games

    NFL Picks - Jan. 29

    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 28

    2016 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 18

    2015 NBA Mock Draft - Jan. 7

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5

    NFL Free Agents


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    1 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 20, 2014): 2-0 (+$300)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2014): 1-0 (+$300)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 20, 2014): 1-1 ($0)
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    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40% (-$580)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-132-7, 52.0% (-$1,115)
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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,157-1,976-117, 52.2% (+$11,300)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 694-624-31 (52.7%)
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    Career Over-Under: 1,685-1,655-48 (50.5%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-18 (62.5%)

    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 7-11
    Bears: 8-8
    Bucs: 9-7
    49ers: 8-7
    Eagles: 9-7
    Lions: 8-8
    Falcons: 8-8
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 5-11
    Packers: 13-4
    Panthers: 8-10
    Rams: 8-8
    Redskins: 8-8
    Vikings: 12-4
    Saints: 6-9
    Seahawks: 10-8
    Bills: 7-9
    Bengals: 6-11
    Colts: 8-10
    Broncos: 8-9
    Dolphins: 10-5
    Browns: 9-5
    Jaguars: 10-6
    Chargers: 7-9
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 10-8
    Texans: 8-7
    Chiefs: 9-6
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 9-8
    Titans: 8-6
    Raiders: 7-9
    Divisional: 36-39 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 14-19 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 29-25 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 47-41 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 35-21 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 16-13 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

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