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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2009



NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2009): 9-6-1 (+$700)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,300)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2009): 9-7 (-$240)

NFL Picks (2009): 119-85-5 (+$8,070)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Dec. 14, 4:20 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 14 NFL Picks - Early Games



Washington Redskins (3-9) at Oakland Raiders (4-8)
Line: Redskins by 1. Total: 37.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Redskins -2.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I'll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I'll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Dec. 7, 2009 are up, so just click the link. There is only one jerk this week, the Jerk of the Holidays. And it's none other than Tiger Woods.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It's amazing how big of an upgrade Bruce Gradkowski has been for the Raiders. Gradkowski isn't even very good - he doesn't have anything close to an NFL arm - but it's the simple fact that unlike JaMarcus Russell, he doesn't turn the ball over 5,000 times a game.

The Raiders have also proven recently that they can be an effective running team if they're not getting blown out. They've actually gained at least 92 rushing yards in every game dating back to their win over Philadelphia. This sets up well for them because the Redskins have struggled to defend opposing ground attacks. Before their dramatic loss to the Saints, Washington had allowed six consecutive opponents to break the 100-yard rushing barrier.

With Justin Fargas running well, Bruce Gradkowski will convert short-yardage situations. The Raiders won't light up the scoreboard or anything, but they should be able to control the clock.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Ever since Daniel Snyder hired his Bingo coordinator, Jason Campbell's game has really improved. In his past six games, Campbell has amazingly completed 66.2 percent of his throws, maintaining nine touchdowns to six interceptions. Against the Saints, Campbell was 30-of-42, 367 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. If Campbell finishes strong, it could be argued that Campbell should remain Washington's starting quarterback going forward.

Campbell should continue to thrive here, as Oakland's secondary has allowed 568 passing yards the past two weeks. The Raiders also struggle to get pressure on the quarterback at times, so that bodes well for Campbell, who has taken only two sacks in the past three games.

The only good news for the Raiders defense is that Washington doesn't run the ball particularly well. Oakland is completely terrible versus the rush, but there's not much of a chance that Rock Cartwright breaks off five yards per carry.

RECAP: This is a horrible spot for the Redskins. They just lost their Super Bowl (that's what Fred Smoot called their game against the Saints), and now they have to travel across the country to battle the lowly Raiders. How can they possibly get motivated for this contest? I just don't see it happening.

Everyone is singing the praises of the Redskins and how they've battled three very tough teams to the wire recently. But what about Oakland? Since Gradkowski was named the starter, the Raiders are 2-1, with victories over 9-3 Cincinnati and the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers. Their only loss in the process was on a short travel week at Dallas.

I really love the Raiders here. I never thought I'd ever lay four units on them, but then again, I never thought I'd ever see a fat No. 1 pick quarterback eating Skittles on the sideline either.


The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
Did you see how dejected the Redskins were when the Saints won the game? How in the world are they going to get up for the Raiders after a cross-country flight?


The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Not many are believers in Bruce Gradkowski yet?
  • Percentage of money on Washington: 71% (82,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Redskins are 2-9 ATS as favorites under Jim Zorn.
  • Raiders are 11-27 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Raiders are 13-31 ATS at home the previous 44 instances.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -1.
  • Opening Total: 36.
  • Weather: Rain, 54 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Raiders 16, Redskins 10
    Raiders +1 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Under 37.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Redskins 34, Raiders 13





    St. Louis Rams (1-11) at Tennessee Titans (5-7)
    Line: Titans by 13. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Titans -11.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Titans -10.5.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    It's a new month, so you have another chance to win in our picking contest. If you don't know what I'm talking about, we are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It's free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

    Also, a few reminders:

    There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

    I'll also have Week 14 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

    And finally, there are 12 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: In my 2009 NFL Power Rankings, I expressed how much admiration and respect I have for Steven Jackson because he's playing through back spasms. I have the same condition that flares up from time to time (including now), so I know how he feels. Of course, Jackson is getting hit by 300-pound linemen every week, while I'm sitting here at the computer and eating Cheetos.

    The Titans have done a great job against the run this year, limiting each opposing foe to less than 90 rushing yards the past four weeks. However, I still say that Jackson runs for about 100 yards. He's been that consistent this season. In fact, Jackson has gained at least 110 rushing yards in five of his past six outings.

    St. Louis' offensive folly is the passing game. Kyle Boller is hopeless and will be eaten alive by Tennessee's defensive front. Boller has taken seven sacks in his past two starts, and that was against the lowly Seahawks and Bears. Just imagine what the Titans are going to do to him.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: If you plan on containing the Titans, you better have a good rush defense. The Colts did a good job on Chris Johnson, limiting the talented back to "just" 113 yards on 27 carries. Granted, 113 rushing yards is a lot for one game, but holding Johnson to a 4.2 average is a victory as far as I'm concerned.

    The Rams, unfortunately, are miserable against running attacks. They've surrendered at least 120 rushing yards in every game since Oct. 18. Could Johnson break the single-game rushing record this afternoon? I would not be surprised the slightest bit if that happened.

    With Johnson gashing St. Louis left and right, Vince Young will easily convert any third downs he encounters. It's not like the Rams can stop the pass either.

    RECAP: Tennessee is infinitely superior to St. Louis, but I like the Rams here. The Titans are in a terrible spot, coming off an emotional loss at Indianapolis. Getting up for lowly St. Louis will be tough this week.

    And speaking of the Rams, they're a feisty 4-1 against the spread in their past five games. In fact, they haven't lost by more than 10 points since battling the Colts on Oct. 25.

    The Titans have a conservative offense, so asking them to cover a 13-point spread is too much.

    SURVIVOR PICK: Considering the teams I've taken, the Titans are the best survivor option for me.

    If I had every team available, this would be my order of preference: New England, Tennessee, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston. The Titans are the highest team I have remaining.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    The Titans put a ton of stock into that Colts game and fell short. Getting up for the lowly Rams will be a challenge.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    About two-thirds of the action is on the Titans.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 64% (92,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Rams are 23-38 ATS in road games since 2001 (4-2 in 2009).
  • Rams are 14-25 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Vince Young is 23-12 as a starter (23-12 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Titans -13.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 48 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Rams 17
    Rams +13 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 41 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Survivor Pick (13-0)
    Titans 47, Rams 7





    San Diego Chargers (9-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
    Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 48.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Cowboys -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Cowboys -1.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Two more NFL notes I need to get to:

    1. I was asked by multiple people for my opinion on how the Robert Meachem touchdown should have been scored in fantasy leagues. Here was my answer:

    I was going against the Saints defense in a fantasy league of mine, and they were awarded a touchdown.

    At first I was angry about it and wanted to send the commissioner a virus e-mail, but then I realized it was the right call. There was a change of possession, so the Redskins were the offensive team. Meachem, as a defensive player, forced the fumble, recovered it and scored a touchdown.

    It should be a D/ST score for the Saints. And fortunately, I still won that fantasy matchup, so suck it, Hawk-Ins.


    2. In the wake of Dallas' loss to the Giants, Wade Phillips was continuously bombarded by the media. One reporter asked Phillips about his team's December mental block. Here is what Mr. Turkey Neck said in response:

    "No I don't think it's a mental block, I think it's something you made up."

    Ohhh, really? So Tony Romo's 5-11 mark after Nov. 30 and 0-2 record in the playoffs is fiction? Your team's tendency to fall flat on its face at the end of each year is a fabrication? You're saying that you're in complete control of the situation despite your horribly perplexed look on the sidelines?

    I don't know what's worse for Cowboys fans: the fact that Mr. Turkey Neck is lying, or the possibility that he doesn't even understand that his team always stinks it up in the final month of the year.

    Jerry Jones has to be completely embarrassed right now. Despite spending quadrillions of dollars on a giant TV, his defense can't prevent a 270-pound running back from running 80 yards down the sideline, his coach is a clown, and his quarterback spends too much time losing money in Vegas during the NFL season.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: And speaking of Tony Aurora Snowmo, Mr. Vegas posted monstrous numbers last week - 41-of-55, 392 yards, 3 TDs - but once again came up short when it mattered most. Snowmo missed a couple of wide-open receivers late in the game and made a terrible read on fourth down of his team's final drive. Epitomizing his typical NFL season, Snowmo started off hot, but faded toward the end. The only thing missing was a hot blonde.

    The Chargers have a pretty good pass defense, so Snowmo may not be able to post pretty numbers again. Save for two occasions, San Diego hasn't allowed more than 190 passing yards since Oct. 19. The two exceptions were the Browns last week (Brady Quinn compiled garbage-time yardage against a Chargers defense missing three defensive starters) and Donovan McNabb, who also piled up stats when his team fell way behind.

    San Diego's defense has faltered a bit against the run, but that won't hurt them here because the Cowboys can't rush the ball. Marion Barber is clearly not 100 percent and Tashard Choice isn't used nearly enough.

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Like the Cowboys, the Chargers have major problems running the ball. Don't expect much out of LaDainian Tomlinson between the 20s. LT will probably score a trademark 1-yard touchdown or two, however.

    Where Dallas will have a major problem is in the passing attack, namely against Antonio Gates. Anthony Spencer will have to cover Gates, which is a recipe for disaster.

    But it's not just Gates; the guy getting him the ball is pretty good too. In his past four games, Philip Rivers has completed 76 percent of his passes and maintained an amazing YPA of 10.6. He also has seven touchdowns and no interceptions in that span. There is no hotter quarterback in the league right now.

    RECAP: You pretty much know what I'm going to say here. How can anyone bet on the Cowboys in the month of December? Snowmo is just 2-12-2 against the spread on Dec. 1 or later. If you've faded Snowmo all this time, congratulations - you probably own a small island right now.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
    Tony Aurora Snowmo rearing his ugly head!!!


    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
    The public knows Tony Aurora Snowmo will choke away another game.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 67% (147,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • Losing Coach: Wade "Mr. Turkey Neck" Phillips is 2-6 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Road Rules: Norv Turner is 2-5 ATS in his second consecutive road games.
  • Philip Rivers is 14-7 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (4-1 ATS as an underdog).
  • Tony Romo is 2-12 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (0-3 ATS as an underdog).
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -3.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Retractable roof.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Cowboys 20
    Chargers +3.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Chargers 20, Cowboys 17





    Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) at New York Giants (7-5)
    Line: Pick. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Giants -2.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Giants -1.
    Sunday, 8:20 ET

    The Game. Edge: Eagles.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo's Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I'm doing the same.

    Bo-Bo saved his best performance for last. In a league where teams tallied 119, 113, 103 and 102 points this week, Bo-Bo lost by a very humorous score of 88-23.

    Here are his starters and their respective point totals:

    QB: Joe Flacco (4)
    RB1: Frank Gore (3)
    RB2: Michael Turner (0)
    WR1: Terrell Owens (3)
    WR2: Chris Chambers (1)
    WR3: Laveranues Coles (2)
    TE: John Carlson (1)
    K: David Akers (9)
    DEF: Vikings Defense (1)

    Amazing. Simply amazing. Not one player scored in double digits. And it's not like Bo-Bo neglected to change his lineup this week. He actually substituted Patrick Crayton with Laveranues Coles. What a bold move!

    Bo-Bo's pitiful season is over at 3-10. He scored 952 points - the only owner in this league with less than 1,050. Let's hope he comes back next year for more laughs and a potential winless season!

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: New York's beleaguered secondary received some bad news this week when they learned that DeSean Jackson was cleared to play. In their past three games, the Giants have surrendered 876 passing yards.

    To prevent Donovan McNabb from relentlessly torching their defensive backfield again - he was 17-of-23, 240 yards, 3 TDs in the first meeting - the Giants absolutely need to get tons of pressure on McNabb. McNabb has been sacked seven times in the past three games, and the Giants' defensive line played a lot better versus Dallas, so this is definitely a possibility.

    One thing you can bet on is the Eagles not running the ball enough. Before big games, the classless Andy Reid often mistakes the running portion of his playbook for hamburgers, so there's a good chance we could see LeSean McCoy run for two yards on just six carries again.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: If you take away Brandon Jacobs' fluky 74-yard touchdown, Eli Manning was just 11-of-24 for 167 yards last week. And he says his foot's not bothering him.

    With a solid pass rush helping a good secondary, the Eagles have a pretty quality pass defense. Manning's offensive line protects him well - he has been sacked only 18 times this year - but he was pressured a good amount when these teams clashed on Nov. 1. Manning did a decent job converting third downs last week, but doing so against the Eagles will be a much greater challenge.

    Manning once again won't have the luxury of a consistent ground attack to give him constant third-and-short situations; Brandon Jacobs continues to struggle, while the Eagles have allowed only five 100-yard rushing performances this year.

    RECAP: I really had a tough time picking this game.

    On one hand, the Eagles are the better team. They're in a good spot to win this contest, and the visitor usually prevails in this rivalry.

    On the other hand, this is a big game, which means that we could have an Andy Reid stink bomb. It wouldn't shock me at all if Big Red uses up all of his timeouts just five minutes into the third quarter.

    However, the Giants are favored, so many Reid won't feel as much pressure to win. Because of that reason, I'm laying a half a unit on the Birds.


    The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
    The Eagles choke when favored in big games, but thrive when they are underdogs. I'm going to have to see where the public goes with this and whether the spread shifts.


    The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
    Slight edge on the Eagles.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 72% (105,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • History: Road Team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Eagles are 62-37 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 28-18 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Donovan McNabb is 37-24 ATS on the road since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Giants -1.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Possible snow, 35 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 20
    Eagles PK (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Eagles 45, Giants 38





    Arizona Cardinals (8-4) at San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
    Line: Cardinals by 4.5. Total: 45.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Cardinals -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Cardinals -4.5.
    Monday, 8:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see the Cardinals and 49ers battle in what should be a thrilling game. Unfortunately, we're going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew "Maurice Drew-Jones" and Torry Holt "Terry Holt"). Here's how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

    Kevin Reilly: Welcome to San Francisco, the city where most people wear leather pants, not that there's anything wrong with that! Tonight, the Arizona Cardinals take on the San Francisco Giants. Guys, these Arizona Cardinals beat my Philadelphia Eagles in the playoffs last year. I'm not as mad at them as I am at the Patriots because everyone knows the officials screwed that game for us. The Eagles should have won! Guys, what should I do to get revenge? Should I break Jake Plummer's knee caps?

    Emmitt: There is no reason to ever resort to that type of violent! Besides, rumor have it that Jake Plummer have retirement a few weeks ago or a few seasons ago, to be more precise.

    Reilly: Jake Plummer retired? Oh man, now I can't get any sort of revenge! Well, there must be something I can do. Coach, I know I'll regret this, but what do you have to say?

    Herm: Kurt Warner was the quarterback last year! It was Kurt Warner! His first name was Warner! His last name was Kurt! I mean his first name was Kurt! His last name was Warner! Look at him! He's on the field right there! Do you see him!? He's throwing the ball! Look at the ball! Look at that little boy cheering him on! Oh wait, that's his wife! Look at his wife! Do you see his wife!? There's his wife!

    Reilly: Coach, you're annoying me again. But if you're right, what should I do to get my revenge on Kurt Warner? He beat my Philadelphia Eagles and he needs to pay.

    Emmitt: There is an old Latino pronoun that go, "Revenge is always the pleasure of the weak and little minds that is sometime narrow." Wait, I think I got the pronoun incorrectly...

    Reilly: No, Emmitt, I think you got it right. I shouldn't do physical harm to Warner. Psychological revenge should do. Maybe we'll break into his house and knock some things over. That should do the trick. Just remind me not to take Coach with us because he'll probably screw things up.

    Herm: Take me! I'll do it! I'll knock things over! See the microphone! See it right there? Do you see the microphone? Look at the microphone! Look at it! I can prove that I can help you! Let me prove it! I can do it! Watch me now! Watch me knock over the microphone! Watch me! Here I go! Here I go to knock over the microphone! I'm doing it! I'm doing it now! Watch me do it!

    Reilly: Oh for crying out loud, just knock over the damn microphone already!

    Herm: Here I go! Here it is! Are you watching? Is everyone watching? I'm going to do this now! I'm going to do it! One... two... three... I counted to three! I counted to three right there! Did you see me count!? Did you see me do it? Did everyone hear...

    Reilly: Shut the f*** up already a**hole!!!! We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: The first time the Cardinals battled the 49ers, Kurt Warner was just 26-of-44 for 288 yards (6.5 YPA), one touchdown and two interceptions. He clearly didn't look right. It was the first week of the year, and I ranted on about how his surgically repaired hip wasn't holding up well.

    Warner has obviously improved since his Week 4 bye, and ever since that fluky five-interception performance against the Panthers, he has thrown 12 touchdowns and zero picks in four starts. That's pretty amazing.

    The 49ers' issues against the pass are well-documented. Prior to taking on the crappy Seahawks last week, San Francisco had allowed all but one quarterback to register at least 246 passing yards in each game, dating back to Oct. 11.

    It's doubtful that the 49ers will be able to get much pressure on Warner - not even the Vikings could do that - so San Francisco could have major problems forcing Arizona into punting situations.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have improved offensively. Alex Smith has really thrived since Mike Singletary installed the spread shotgun offense; in his past three games, Smith has compiled 769 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. In his previous two outings, Smith has been sacked only once.

    It really helps Smith that he has a few talented weapons to work with. Vernon Davis is now one of the top tight ends in the NFL. Michael Crabtree, despite dropping a touchdown last week, is a dynamic receiver who just keeps getting more comfortable each game. Josh Morgan (12 catches, 99 yards, TD the last two weeks) is a pretty good tertiary option. And who could forget Frank Gore coming out of the backfield?

    While the Cardinals put the clamps on Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson last week, remember that they are just a week removed from allowing Vince Young to throw for nearly 400 yards. A few weeks before that, Matt Hasselbeck passed all over them as well.

    RECAP: After much deliberation, I've decided to make the 49ers my December NFL Pick of the Month. A few reasons why:

    MONDAY NIGHT MADNESS: In 2007, one of my NFL Picks of the Month was on the Bills getting 10 against the Cowboys. People called me insane for liking Buffalo to win straight-up, but I knew it was going to be an enormously emotional game for that team. They hadn't hosted a Monday night game in years, so they were able to feed off their rabid crowd. As giant underdogs, they held a late lead against Dallas before choking it away at the end. The Cowboys won 25-24, but the important thing was that Buffalo still covered.

    Last year, I placed a 5-unit wager on the Texans -3 over the Jaguars. Like the Bills, Houston was hosting its first Monday night game in years (the previous one was when the Oilers were still in town). The Texans wore their Battle Red jerseys and completely demolished a Jaguars team getting the majority of the money in that contest. Houston won, 30-17.

    This is the exact same situation. This San Francisco crowd hasn't seen a Monday night contest in a long time. The fans will be fired up and the 49ers will feed off of that emotion. This will be their chance to prove that they are a playoff contender in this league.

    But can they still make the playoffs?

    PLAYOFFS ON THE LINE: The 49ers are three games back with four to go. All the talk circled around them beating the Seahawks and the Cardinals losing to the Vikings last week, neither of which happened. So how in the world can San Francisco make the Doggone Playoff?

    Here's how: If they beat the Cardinals on Monday night, they'll be two games back with three remaining. That may seem like an improbable hurdle to overcome, but remember that they'll have the tie-breaker over Arizona. So, if they win out, they'll be 9-7. They then would need the Cardinals to lose two of their three remaining contests, which can definitely happen. You just never know. The 49ers are definitely not out of it.

    MEANINGLESS GAME: Conversely, this game means nothing to the Cardinals. They need a miracle to catch the Vikings for a bye, and they're not in danger of missing the postseason.

    Seriously, what does Arizona have to play for here? While this game means the world to San Francisco, it's completely insignificant to the Cardinals. They just had a big victory over the Vikings, so how will they get up for a lowly 5-7 squad? I just don't see why they would bring any sort of intensity here.

    ALWAYS CLOSE: Even if the Cardinals cover the spread, I really can't see them blowing out the 49ers.

    Ken Whisenhunt has played San Francisco five times and has been favored over them in all but one of the matchups. Here's how they went down:

    09/10/07 at San Francisco (SF -3): 49ers 20, Cardinals 17.
    12/25/07 at Arizona (ARZ -10): 49ers 37, Cardinals 31.
    09/08/08 at San Francisco (ARZ -3): Cardinals 23, 49ers 13.
    11/10/08 at Arizona (ARZ -9.5): Cardinals 29, 49ers 24.
    09/13/09 at Arizona (ARZ -6): 49ers 20, Cardinals 16.

    These teams hate each other, so it should be no surprise that the underdog has gotten up for each meeting. The dog in this rivalry is 3-0-1 against the spread since Whisenhunt made the Cardinals competitive, and the average margin of victory in these matchups is 5.6 points in that span.

    In other words, it's very unlikely that this will be an Arizona blowout, as many people are projecting.

    PUBLIC MONEY: And speaking of projection, the public is pounding the Cardinals like they know the final score of the game. Everyone saw Arizona trash Brett Favre and the Vikings, and people are taking out second mortgages to bet the Cardinals, who are laying ONLY 3.5 points in this contest. This is one of the more lopsided Monday night games of the year in terms of betting action.

    Vegas knows all, and the oddsmakers have come out with a tiny spread like this to lure gamblers into betting the visitor. I'm guessing that the sportsbooks know what I know - that this is a heavily contested rivalry in which the 49ers have everything to play for, while the Cardinals won't exactly be desperate for a victory.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    The 49ers will be pumped to host their first Monday night game since Week 1, 2007. This will be their chance to show everyone that they are a legit team. The Cardinals, meanwhile, might not be up for this contest after blasting the Vikings in a statement game.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    What a shady line. After watching the Cardinals debaclize the Vikings, the public is pounding this small spread.
  • Percentage of money on Arizona: 89% (210,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • History: Cardinals have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Cardinals are 7-3 ATS vs. the NFC West since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -3.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Showers, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 24
    49ers +4.5 (8 Units - December NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$800
    Over 45 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    49ers 24, Cardinals 9



    Week 14 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Steelers at Browns, Saints at Falcons, Packers at Bears, Broncos at Colts, Bills at Chiefs, Jets at Buccaneers, Dolphins at Jaguars, Lions at Ravens, Seahawks at Texans, Bengals at Vikings, Panthers at Patriots


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Texans -0.5, Colts -1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
  • Moneyline Dog: Bengals +240 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
  • Moneyline Dog: Chargers +145 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$145
  • Moneyline Dog: 49ers +165 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$165
  • Psychological Edge Parlay: Bengals +7, Patriots -13, Raiders +1, Rams +13, Chargers +3, 49ers +3.5 (.5 Units to win 23.6) -- Incorrect; -$50





    NFL Picks - Sept. 21


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Sept. 20


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 3-3 (-$170)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 0-2 (-$880)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 2, 2014): 8-7-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 2, 2014): -$110

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-1, 0% (-$330)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 23-24-1, 48.9% (-$1,060)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 12-10, 54.5% (+$280)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 0-2, %0 (-$880)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 18-13-1, 58.1% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$270

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,037-1,868-112, 52.2% (+$11,365)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 656-593-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-236-10 (53.4%)
    Career Over-Under: 1559-1550-47 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-1
    Bears: 0-2
    Bucs: 1-1
    49ers: 1-1
    Eagles: 0-2
    Lions: 1-1
    Falcons: 0-2
    Cardinals: 1-1
    Giants: 2-0
    Packers: 1-1
    Panthers: 0-2
    Rams: 1-1
    Redskins: 1-1
    Vikings: 1-1
    Saints: 1-1
    Seahawks: 1-1
    Bills: 1-1
    Bengals: 0-2
    Colts: 0-2
    Broncos: 1-1
    Dolphins: 2-0
    Browns: 2-0
    Jaguars: 0-2
    Chargers: 0-2
    Jets: 1-1
    Ravens: 0-2
    Texans: 2-0
    Chiefs: 2-0
    Patriots: 2-0
    Steelers: 1-1
    Titans: 1-1
    Raiders: 2-0
    Divisional: 4-4 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 0-2 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 3-2 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 6-2 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 2-3 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 2-1 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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