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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2009): 9-6-1 (+$700)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,300)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2009): 9-7 (-$240)

NFL Picks (2009): 119-85-5 (+$8,070)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 14, 4:20 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks - Late Games

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Cleveland Browns (1-11)
Line: Steelers by 9.5. Total: 33.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Steelers -10.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Steelers -10.
Thursday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 13 Recap: I went 9-7, but units-wise, it was my first losing week since Week 8. However, I can't really say I'm discouraged. I had a combined 12 units on the Patriots, Titans and Buccaneers. The three teams had a total of SEVEN red-zone trips that resulted in zero points. They had three turnovers on downs and four interceptions, including three by Josh Freeman. It was really frustrating, and there's nothing you can really do when something like that happens.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I was criticized by some for having the Steelers ranked No. 9 in my 2009 NFL Power Rankings. While losses to the Chiefs and Raiders are disconcerting, the fact remains that Pittsburgh is missing its best defensive player. The team is 4-1 with Troy Polamalu and 2-5 without him. He'll probably be back in Week 15.

The Steelers won't need Polamalu here, especially with their offense's matchup against Cleveland's defense. From struggling to stop the run to getting torched by opposing quarterbacks, the Browns can't do anything right, especially with Shaun Rogers out.

Last week, the Chargers had to punt only once and scored on nearly every possession. I'm expecting something similar out of Pittsburgh's offense in this matchup, even with Hines Ward potentially out.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Brady Quinn screwed many bettors last week by backdooring the Chargers twice. It was really painful to watch, as Quinn threw his trademark 5-yard dink-and-dunk passes all the way down the field. What impressed me was the emergence of tight end Evan Moore, who made some really impressive grabs, finishing with six catches for 80 yards. Moore is the real deal, and he's a name to remember when you're doing your fantasy drafts next summer.

I doubt Quinn will have as much success against the Steelers. The Chargers managed to sack Quinn only twice, but Pittsburgh will be more successful in that department. Once they get Quinn into third-and-long situations, they'll either force a punt or a turnover. Quinn is too scared to launch deep passes, so the absence of Polamalu won't hurt here.

RECAP: Mike Tomlin said he would "unleash hell" in December, but I don't think the Steelers were too focused for the Raiders. Coming off an emotional loss to the Ravens, how could they be?

They'll be ready Thursday night. This is an absolute must-win for the Steelers. I can't see this game being close.

By the way, if you're worried about that whole "road team on a weeknight" thing, don't be. The Pittsburgh to Cleveland commute isn't a long one, and you can bet that there will be more Steelers fans in the stands than Browns supporters. This will essentially be a home game for Pittsburgh.

WEATHER UPDATE: There are going to be snow showers with winds gusting up to 35 mph. Bet the under.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
Ordinarily, home teams playing under the weeknight lights feed off the energy of the crowd. However, you can bet that at least half of the people in the stands will be Steeler fans.

The media loves to throw around the term "must-win." I don't. But this is a MUST-WIN for Pittsburgh.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Hmm... wonder whom the public will be betting on here.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 72% (82,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • History: Steelers have won 18 of the last 19 meetings.
  • Winning Coach: Mike Tomlin is 7-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 66-27 as a starter (51-40 ATS).
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 20-12 ATS vs. the AFC North.
  • Browns are 14-5 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.
  • Browns are 7-13 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 37.5.
  • Weather: Snow showers, 15 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 35 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Steelers 21, Browns 0
    Steelers -9.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 33 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Browns 13, Steelers 6

    New Orleans Saints (12-0) at Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
    Line: Saints by 10. Total: 50.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Saints -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Saints -6 (Ryan) or Saints -11.5 (Redman).
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Saints.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Vegas Recap: It was a huge weekend for the sportsbooks, thanks to two backdoor covers by the Lions and Browns, as well as a Steelers loss that broke up lots of teasers. The oddsmakers went 6-1 with their lopsided-bet games, losing only with the Broncos. They made money off Detroit, Washington, Jacksonville, Miami, Cleveland and Arizona.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: Chris Redman is a solid quarterback. The only traits he lacks are arm strength, accuracy and pocket awareness. Other than that, he's flawless. He even threw a touchdown against the Eagles!

    In all seriousness, the Falcons don't stand a chance to score more than 10 points if Redman starts. So with that in mind, Matt Ryan's availability is the big question here.

    There were rumors last week that Ryan would be out for the season. Ryan quelled some of that speculation by telling Alex Trebek Arthur Blank that he would play against the Saints. However, Peter King called Ryan "questionable at best."

    If Ryan plays, it's likely that he won't be 100 percent. If that's the case, he'll struggle against a Saints secondary that did a great job shutting down Tom Brady two weeks ago. Also, there's a good chance that top corner Jabari Greer will finally be in the lineup. If so, he'll be a huge boost for New Orleans.

    Ryan will also have issues with pass protection. He was sacked 12 times in five games prior to playing the Buccaneers. In that span was a three-sack stint at New Orleans. The thing is, the Saints didn't even have stud defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis available in that contest. An injured Ryan could have even more issues with pass protection this time around.

    Running the ball with Michael Turner either out or hobbled will be tough, so Ryan will have to convert third-and-long situations. That won't be promising against a focused Saints defense.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Teams with good defenses tend to step up and play well when a backup quarterback is in the game. Just look at how fiercely the Steelers battled the Ravens with Dennis Dixon under center.

    I liked the Eagles last week because the Falcons don't have a good defense. In fact, "terrible" isn't even a strong enough adjective. They have issues stopping the run, but the most glaring problem is the secondary. In the past three weeks, Atlanta has surrendered 890 passing yards to a hobbled Eli Manning, rookie Josh Freeman and a DeSean Jackson-less Donovan McNabb. This just in: That's not good.

    Think Drew Brees will have any problems shredding the Falcons' defensive backfield with his myriad of weapons? Unless he does lines of cocaine before this contest, I doubt it.

    RECAP: Based on last week's speculation that Ryan would be done for the year, I'm going to assume that the Falcon quarterback either misses this contest or plays ineffectively. If I'm right, Atlanta has absolutely no chance to keep this close.

    For now, I'm laying two units with the Saints. This may change later in the week depending on Ryan's status, so stay tuned.

    The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
    The Falcons absolutely must have this game. They'll be up for the undefeated Saints, though I don't know how confident they'll be with Chris Redman at quarterback. New Orleans, meanwhile, has some breathing room in terms of homefield advantage. They don't need a victory here.

    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    Drew Brees, Chris Redman... Drew Brees, Chris Redman... Drew Brees, Chris Redman...
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 77% (107,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • History: Saints have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Road Rules: Sean Payton is 7-2 ATS in a second consecutive road game.
  • Saints are 47-31 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Drew Brees is 22-12 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Drew Brees is 14-7 ATS as a road favorite.
  • Opening Line: Saints -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Falcons 10
    Saints -10 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Under 50.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Saints 26, Falcons 23

    Green Bay Packers (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7)
    Line: Packers by 4.5. Total: 41.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Pick.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Packers -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. As always, a Rebecca Grant update. I'm sad to report that Rebecca showed us only like an inch of cleavage this week. Ugh. I'm beginning to think that she doesn't even have breasts anymore.

    2. As always, I have to speak my mind regarding QB Dog Killer. Andy Reid named QB Dog Killer a team captain against the Falcons. Fortunately, no dogs were drowned in the process.

    Many people, including Chris Berman, called Andy Reid's decision a "classy move."

    Classy, my a**. I didn't really care too much about the team captain stuff, though it didn't really make any sense. From a football perspective, QB Dog Killer has done more negative than positive this year for the Eagles because whenever he's been used, he's disrupted the rhythm of the offense. Even Donovan McNabb said so if you don't believe me.

    But I really lost a lot of respect for Big Red when he called pass plays for QB Dog Killer at the end of the contest. First of all, the game was a blowout. There was no need to run up the score. And second, did Reid really have to use QB Dog Killer against a franchise he helped temporarily ruin? Way to stick it to Atlanta, jerk. Reid might as well have strolled up to Arthur Blank's suite and spit in his face.

    The game was out of hand. There was no reason to use QB Dog Killer to embarrass the Falcons. None. Reid is the most classless coach in the NFL, and I will make more of an effort to berate him now. As my dad put it, "I didn't have any respect for Andy Reid to begin with, but if I did, it would be gone after today."

    3. As always, a rip of's crappy Gamecenter.

    The new Gamecenter sucks compared to the old one, but in this case, I'm happy with it. Apparently, GameCenter hates QB Dog Killer as well. Look at their stat line for Philadelphia's quarterback. Also, feel free to enjoy an amusing, yet confusing message by one of the posters.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers began the year at 4-4. They were horribly inconsistent because they couldn't protect Aaron Rodgers. At one point, Rodgers was on pace to be sacked 73 times.

    Ever since the Buccaneer loss and the players-only meeting, Green Bay is 4-0. In those four contests, Rodgers had been sacked just eight times. With a healthy Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher back at tackle, Rodgers is enjoying much more time in the pocket, which is allowing him to kill opposing defenses with his third-down conversions.

    It shouldn't be any different here. Chicago's defense has suffered without Brian Urlacher. The team struggles to generate pressure and consequently has trouble against the pass. Containing the run is their biggest issue. The Bears have allowed 1,075 rushing yards in the past seven games. Ryan Grant will pile up tons of yardage, giving Rodgers easy third-and-short situations.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Unlike the Packers, the Bears have never solved their offensive line issues. Their horrific front has trouble in both pass protection and run blocking. It's why Chicago hasn't covered a single game since Nov. 1.

    I don't see that trend changing now, especially with the way Green Bay's improved 3-4 is playing. The Packers haven't allowed more than 81 rushing yards to a single opponent since Nov. 1, so the Bears can forget about running the ball.

    Bombarded with constant third-and-long situations, Jay Cutler will have to force a few passes to his mediocre receivers. And you know what happens when he does that. There's a very good chance that Charles Woodson has a pick-six in this contest.

    RECAP: From a spot standpoint, this is a difficult one for the Packers. They are traveling on a short work week to battle a Bears team that will be playing its Super Bowl. Chicago has no chance at the playoffs, but it can at least knock arch rival Green Bay out of a wild card spot.

    With that in mind, the Bears stink and will ultimately find a way to lose. Football games are won in the trenches, and that's an area where Chicago is incredibly weak right now. The front office really needs to address the offensive line this offseason.

    The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
    Green Bay is on fire, but the Bears would love nothing more than to knock the Packers out of a wildcard spot. Chicago will throw the kitchen sink at Green Bay.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
    No surprise here.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 91% (134,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Home Team has won the last 4 meetings.
  • Packers are 21-10 ATS after Monday Night Football in the previous 31 instances.
  • Opening Line: Packers -3.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Possible snow, 37 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Packers 26, Bears 10
    Packers -4.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 41.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Packers 21, Bears 14

    Denver Broncos (8-4) at Indianapolis Colts (12-0)
    Line: Colts by 7. Total: 44.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Colts -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Colts -7.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Most people want an 18-game schedule. "Cancel two preseason games and extend the NFL season by two weeks," they say. Not me. This may surprise you because I'm fortunate enough to make a living off the NFL, but I don't think I could handle a 19-week season.

    Each year, I reach a breaking point where I'm completely worn down and have to fight through fatigue to go any further. This is that point. In writing up all of these picks, watching all of the games, doing the NFL Power Rankings, compiling my weekly NFL game recaps, releasing my NFL Mock Drafts, updating draft prospect rankings, writing my Jerks of the Week and Emmitt on the Brink, and editing various articles, I barely have any time to do anything. And by anything, I mean ANYTHING, including sleep and shower.

    Seriously, I walk into my gym Thursday evening and the hot chick at the front desk tilts her head and says, "You don't look so good. Have you slept recently?" My answer is, "No. I love my job, but I wake up Sunday morning and continue working throughout the week without any breaks except for sleep until Thursday afternoon, when I come to the gym for an hour and then go home to watch more football."

    And at that point, the girl passes out from my rancid stench because I haven't showered since Monday afternoon.

    Like I said, I've reached my breaking point. Even though I love the NFL, I'm relieved that there are only four more weeks left. If Roger Goodell extends the season, I think I'd seriously break down and cry.

    So go ahead, Roger. If you want to make more money, by all means, have the teams play 18 games. You'll be killing me in the process, but that's OK!

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It's pretty tough to keep Peyton Manning from lighting up the scoreboard and stat sheet, but if he has a kryptonite, it's 3-4 defenses. Two of the previous three 3-4 teams he has battled have held him to 18 points or less (49ers and Ravens).

    The Broncos have done an incredible job against the run lately, holding their previous two opponents to less than 95 rushing yards and 3.6 yards per carry. If Denver can continue this and limit Joseph Addai's yardage, they'll have a chance. Consider these numbers:

    When the Colts have gained 88 rushing yards or more in a game, they've averaged 34 points this season.
    When the Colts have gained less than 88 rushing yards in a game, they've averaged only 23 points.

    Manning will still lead his team to a couple of end zone trips, but as long as the Broncos don't let Addai beat them, they should be able to keep up with the Colts.

    DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos put on a clinic against the Chiefs, pushing around Kansas City's defensive line with ease and opening up monstrous holes for Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. They obviously won't be able to run the ball that well against Indianapolis, but it should be noted that the Colts have allowed 90 rushing yards or more in all but one game since Oct. 11.

    As long as the Broncos gain four or more yards per carry, they'll be able to move the chains with Kyle Orton converting manageable third downs. If not, Denver will really struggle to put up points; the Colts have a much better secondary and pass rush than the Chiefs do. They won't allow the girly armed Orton to convert third-and-long situations.

    RECAP: Earlier, I mentioned Manning's struggles against the 3-4. The team as a whole hasn't been able to demolish those teams. Against 3-4 clubs, the Colts have victories of 2, 1, 4, 21 and 4 points.

    The Colts really don't have much to play for here, but it's not like Denver needs to win this game either. However, this is more of a statement game for the Broncos, who would garner tons of respect if they could somehow knock Indianapolis off its undefeated pedestal.

    The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
    Neither team really needs a win here.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 56% (156,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Opening Line: Colts -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Colts 22, Broncos 20
    Broncos +7 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Under 44 (0 Units) -- Push; $0
    Colts 28, Broncos 16

    Buffalo Bills (4-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-9)
    Line: Bills by 1.5. Total: 38.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Chiefs -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Chiefs -2.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Bills.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some college football notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. Ugh. Where do I begin? Oh, how about Texas being the No. 2 team in the country? The Longhorns barely beat a Nebraska team that had a high school kid at quarterback. Seriously, how does Nebraska not recruit a better quarterback? They're freaking Nebraska. Zac Lee belongs in a Division 3 program. He stinks and should be kicked out of the school. In fact, he should be exiled from the state. Adios, Zac Lee!

    If Nebraska's quarterback had any sort of talent, the Longhorns would have lost that game. Unless you go/went to school in Austin, you can't look at me with a straight face and tell me that the Longhorns are better than TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State. You also can't tell me they're any worse. The problem is that we just don't know.

    Because Texas was voted into the so-called championship, I will not watch this preposterous so-called championship. I have no interest in seeing a huge blowout, and I don't want to witness any more of Colt McCoy's girly armed throws."

    Forum member BkBeas pointed this out: "You have to watch, you will have 8 units on Bama."

    First of all, it'll be seven units. And secondly, I don't need to watch because it's a lopsided matchup. What I'll do is record the game. After it's over, I'll check the final score. If it's close, I'll watch the fourth quarter and that'll be all. The corrupt NCAA and BCS don't deserve my time.

    2. Barack Obama: We need you! Obama is a big sports fan and has said in the past that he wants to see a postseason in college football. Well, Mr. President, we have five undefeated teams, so two could play for the right to be in a four-team playoff.

    Why can't we have a four-team playoff? It's what the fans want. It's what the players want. It's what advertisers want (seriously, this would set records for TV viewership). It makes sense. And it's the only fair way to decide a true champion.

    And don't tell me that Obama has better things to do. The NCAA is a multi-million dollar corrupt organization. Congress has investigated baseball for steroids. The corrupt NCAA is a much more alarming issue than players sticking syringes into their anus.

    3. Oh, and you can find numerous threads about the corrupt NCAA on the forum, including this College Football 4-Team Playoff thread. Also, the voters have spoken and an overwhelming percentage say they would rather have TCU play Alabama in the national championship.

    I'll continue my college football rant over on the next pick. I don't want to make this Bills-Chiefs write-up too long because neither team would stand a chance against Alabama.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: Well, maybe the Bills would have a shot. They've been playing much better under Perry Fewell, and even Terrell Owens is happy. When asked what he was thankful for on Thanksgiving, Owens simply said, "Ryan Fitzpatrick."

    Fitzpatrick may do some things wrong and he definitely doesn't have the arm strength to make all of the throws, but he can run for first downs and loft beautiful, deep balls to Owens. Owens was shut down by Darrelle Revis last week, but he'll rebound against a Chiefs secondary that can't tackle.

    Of course, the Bills may not need to take many downfield shots. Kansas City's defense has allowed at least 93 rushing yards to all but one opponent the team has played this season. The Bills have rushed for 252 yards in their past two games and should continue to run the ball well against this horrific Chiefs "stop" unit.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Like the Chiefs, Buffalo has major problems stopping the run, so they're fortunate here because Kansas City has gained more than 3.6 yards per carry in only one game since Nov. 8.

    That said, Jamaal Charles will still have some success on the ground, which will allow Matt Cassel to convert some third-and-short situations. However, the Chiefs can't really hit any big plays, so moving the chains methodically against a Buffalo defense that features a great secondary and an improved pass rush (Kyle Williams is really stepping up as an interior force) could prove to be difficult.

    Speaking of a pass rush, that's just something the Chiefs haven't been able to contain this year. The offensive line is terrible, and Cassel has taken so many sacks that he's beginning to throw errant passes so he doesn't have to take anymore hits. He has essentially become Marc Bulger, though Cassel never really had any talent to begin with.

    RECAP: This is a tough game to call. The Bills are the better team, but I can't say I really trust them to win a road game.

    I'm still going with Buffalo though. This Chiefs team is reeling right now after two losses as big underdogs to their divisional rivals. After getting blown out against the Broncos and Chargers, I just don't see Kansas City getting up for this contest.

    The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
    With two consecutive losses as giant divisional underdogs, I don't know how much interest the Chiefs will have in beating Buffalo. The Bills, meanwhile, seem more energized under the Perry Fuel Oil Company.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 57% (77,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Bills are 22-14 ATS as a dog under the Dick Jauron/Perry Fewell regime.
  • Bills are 15-8 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
  • Chiefs are 13-8 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Chiefs are 6-15 ATS at home since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bills -1.
  • Opening Total: 38.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 17
    Bills -1.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Over 38 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Bills 16, Chiefs 10

    New York Jets (6-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11)
    Line: Jets by 3.5. Total: 36.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Jets -1.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Jets -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Jets.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    More college football notes:

    4. We used to run a Consensus College Football Top 25 Ranking on this site, which included voters from ESPN and It was a cool feature. Unfortunately, it hasn't been updated in a while for some reason.

    I compiled my final regular-season top 25 during breakfast (French toast) on Sunday morning. Seriously, there's maple syrup all over my keyboard. Myspacebarsometimesdoesn'tworknow.

    My Top 25 starts like this:

    Cincinnati, Alabama, TCU, Boise State, Florida...

    You may think I may need to be drug tested, but I can defend those rankings. After its pitiful showing defensively against Texas A&M and offensively against Nebraska, Texas doesn't belong in the top five.

    A month ago, I told Hunter Ansley of that I would vote the Bearcats No. 1 if they went undefeated. I'm keeping my word.

    Let's do a rundown: Cincinnati went on the road to Oregon State and beat a tough Beavers squad. Going across the country out of conference is a ballsy thing to do, and they should be awarded for it. They went into Pittsburgh and won. And they were victorious in a few games against quality opponents without their starting quarterback!

    Alabama is a great team as well, but their toughest road win was at Ole Miss. Meh. Yes, they beat Florida and Virginia Tech on neutral fields, but those teams had to travel as well.

    But here's the thing - I'm not really arguing Alabama over Cincinnati because I could live with those teams in either order. What we really need to debate is Texas and Cincinnati. While the Bearcats went across the country and battled tough non-conference opponents, the Longhorns took on Wyoming, Louisiana-Monroe and Central Florida. Wowowowowowwow. Sooo impressive.

    Texas needs to be penalized for this. You shouldn't be rewarded with a national championship appearance after scheduling cupcake foes. It's not American.

    5. I'm getting tired writing about a stupid sport with no concise winner. We need a playoff system of some sort, but I would have taken Alabama-Cincinnati or Alabama-TCU. Because it's Alabama-Texas, I AM NEVER WATCHING COLLEGE FOOTBALL AGAIN.

    I'm not just saying that. I am a stubborn a**hole and I stand by my principles.

    So, let me repeat: If Barack Obama doesn't step in and change this Alabama-Texas garbage, I AM NEVER WATCHING COLLEGE FOOTBALL AGAIN. And you shouldn't watch this corrupt sport either. Not until they get a playoff at least.

    6. And speaking of a college football playoff, make sure you join this Facebook group: COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF FANS - WE NEED A PLAYOFF. We need to force these greedy, corrupt communistic college presidents to make things right.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: There is no line on this game because of Mark Sanchez's PCL sprain. However, everyone around Sanchez seems optimistic that he'll play. Vegas should post a line now and stop annoying us degenerate gamblers.

    It's a shame Sanchez got hurt against the Bills because he was playing really well. He missed two easy throws, but was otherwise really sharp against a pretty stout Buffalo secondary.

    Assuming his knee braces don't affect him too much, Sanchez should continue to thrive against a pedestrian Tampa Bay secondary. Sanchez will have plenty of short-yardage situations to work with, as the Buccaneers have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all but two games this year.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I almost cried last week. With three units on Tampa Bay, I happily watched the team continuously move the chains down the field against the Panthers. However, whenever the Buccaneers reached the red zone, Josh Freeman tossed an interception. He did it three times. It was just nauseating.

    I can't help but think that Freeman will once again commit tons of turnovers here. He's going against a talented Jets secondary that has limited its previous two foes to a combined 175 passing yards and forced those quarterbacks into five interceptions. That's pretty damn impressive.

    The Buccaneers absolutely need to establish their ground attack here to keep Freeman from forcing poor passes. The Jets had problems containing Marshawn Lynch last week, though they'll probably have an easier time with Cadillac Williams.

    RECAP: Based on talent, the Jets SHOULD win this contest. However, "should" is a pretty dangerous word when it's applied to NFL games.

    This seems like a really horrible spot for New York. This is their last "easy" game before taking on the Falcons, Colts and Bengals. Following a win over the Bills, I don't think they'll be focused for the Buccaneers, especially with an inexperienced Sanchez having the pressue to win this contest.

    The New Sombrero isn't an easy place to play. The Tampa crowd gets up for these home games, and the flight down from New York to Florida can be a little taxing. We've seen the Packers fail here, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Jets lost as well.

    Assuming the Jets are favored, I like the Buccaneers quite a bit.

    THURSDAY UPDATE: Kellen Clemens will start for the Jets, who are still favored by three. Clemens laying points on the road with the public backing him? Yeah, my pick is staying the same. However, I'm dropping this down to one unit because whatever mental edge the Buccaneers had is now gone.

    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    This was an obvious Breather Alert for the Jets. After the 1-11 Bucs, they have the Falcons, Colts and Bengals to close out the season. This is their last easy game. However, they might be more focused with their backup quarterback in the game.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    People love Kellen Clemens!
  • Percentage of money on New York: 73% (91,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Buccaneers are 14-8 ATS as a home underdog since 1996 (1-4 in 2009).
  • Opening Line: Jets -3.
  • Opening Total: 36.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 80 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 16, Jets 13
    Buccaneers +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 36.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Jets 26, Buccaneers 3

    Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)
    Line: Jaguars by 2. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Pick.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Dolphins -1.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    It's time for Notes from GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I found on's new crappy GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

    1. "is mike sims walker playinhg? whats the url to watch thus game"

    No watching thus game or any game until you master the English language, my friend.



    3. "what was terrible the run??"

    "Terrible the Run" sounds like a Native American name or the nickname of some sort of famous criminal. Damn you, Terrible the Run!

    MIAMI OFFENSE: Sometimes your offensive strengths just don't match up well with the team you're playing against. I think this one of those instances for the Dolphins.

    Jacksonville's defense as a whole isn't very good because they can't get any pressure at all on the quarterback, but something they do well is stop the run. The Jaguars have held their previous three opponents to 68 rushing yards or less, and the last four foes they've battled haven't gained more than 3.8 yards per carry.

    The Dolphins will have problems running the ball with Ricky Williams, which will force Chad Henne to move the chains on his own. Henne played extremely well last week, thanks to no pass rush from New England and a Patriots secondary that didn't feel like covering the Miami receivers.

    The Jaguars have similar problems - they have 12 sacks on the year and they've allowed five consecutive 200-yard passing performances - but the difference here is that Chad Henne will be on the road. In four away starts, Henne is a combined 65-of-115, 678 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. If you don't have your nifty Windows calculator open, that's a mediocre completion percentage of 56.5 and a pedestrian YPA of 5.9.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I've chastised Jack Del Rio and Dirk Koetter repeatedly for not running the ball enough. Against the Texans, Maurice Jones-Drew had just 14 carries after three quarters. In the first half at San Francisco, Jones-Drew rushed the ball only five times. This simply can't keep happening if the Jaguars want to make the playoffs.

    The Dolphins have allowed eight consecutive opponents to rush for 96 yards or more. Del Rio and Koetter really need to concentrate on giving Jones-Drew as many touches as possible. Unfortunately, both men can't put a logical game plan together, so expect David Garrard to air it out 75 times in this contest.

    Miami doesn't have the best secondary in the NFL, but the defense really excels at putting pressure on the quarterback. The Jaguars, meanwhile, don't have a very good offensive line and have surrendered 34 sacks this year. Even worse, Garrard leads the NFL with 12 fumbles. If he's sacked a lot, there's a very good chance that he'll turn the ball over a couple of times.

    RECAP: This is a pretty evenly matched game, but I like the Jaguars a bit here for two reasons.

    First, I don't trust Henne on the road. I know he has two away victories, but he can thank the Jets' poor kick coverage and Jake Delhomme's ineptness for that.

    Second, the Jaguars always seem to play really well whenever they're doubted. Though they're favored by three, everyone expects the Dolphins to win and no one takes Jacksonville seriously right now.

    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    The Jaguars perform well when doubted and struggle when hyped up. The public likes the Dolphins and doesn't believe in this Jacksonville squad.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    People are loving the Dolphins here after their victory over the Patriots.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 69% (99,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Jaguars are 9-1 ATS before playing the arch rival Colts since 2004.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -3.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Rain, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Jaguars 20, Dolphins 13
    Jaguars -2 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 43.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 14, Jaguars 10

    Detroit Lions (2-10) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
    Line: Ravens by 14. Total: 39.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Ravens -13.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Ravens -13.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    More Notes from GameCenter:


    I don't think this guy understands the rules of football.

    2. "i would like to see colt brennen for the skins play he was great last season for the them, i think hes got the instink to beat out cambell but the skins dont want to give up on him thow"

    This guy has all the instink to be a promising McDonald's worker in the future.

    3. "vick fight dogs yall (white ppl) fight chickens wats da f***in differents"

    The differents between dogs and chickens? If you don't know that, you probably don't know how to spell either.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions offense going up the Ravens' defense would have been a serious mismatch in the past, but that's no longer the case. If you missed it when Mike Tirico and company mentioned it a billion times on Monday night, Baltimore leads the NFL in pass interference penalties. Their secondary really is a disgrace.

    The Lions could be without Matthew Stafford here, but regardless of who the quarterback is, the Ravens will have serious problems containing Calvin Johnson. And even though either Stafford or Daunte Culpepper will be in long-yardage situations - Baltimore still excels against the run, so Kevin Smith won't get much on the ground - Detroit should still be able to move the chains. The Ravens really have major problems getting to the quarterback. It's hard to believe, but they have just 22 sacks this year.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Surprisingly, the Ravens are also having trouble in pass protection. Joe Flacco was sacked thrice on Monday night and was pressured a lot.

    Fortunately for Flacco, he's going against a Lions defense that has even less sacks than Baltimore's (21). Detroit's secondary is terrible, so even with his limited weapons, Flacco will be able to consistently lead the Ravens down the field.

    Something positive for the Lions is how well they've improved against the run lately. Four of the previous five teams they've played have averaged 3.3 yards per carry or less. You really have to credit rookie Sammie Lee Hill and a solid group of linebackers for this. Now, if only Detroit could pressure the quarterback and find a top-tier corner...

    RECAP: The wishy-washy Ravens have struggled lately, so I really think they'll have trouble covering this high number. It's hard for struggling teams to just come out a destroy a team without getting lucky turnovers or a few special-teams plays.

    That could certainly happen against the Lions, but consider this: The Ravens haven't scored more than 20 points since Nov. 1. With that in mind, expecting them to cover 13 is ridiculous.

    The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
    After a big loss on Monday night, it could be difficult for the Ravens to get up for the lowly Lions.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Slight action on Baltimore.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 59% (92,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Lions are 12-18 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -13.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Rain, 42 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Lions 19
    Lions +14 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 39.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Ravens 48, Lions 3

    Seattle Seahawks (5-7) at Houston Texans (5-7)
    Line: Texans by 7. Total: 44.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Texans -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Texans -7.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Texans.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I'm going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week's edition:

    Greeting to my new friend,

    How are you and how is your work? i hope that all is well with you,

    My name is miss(ALDA)i know that you may be suprise how i text your email,

    i got your Email today when i was browsing looking for honest partner,on(email internate search)then i feel to drop this few line to you , and i will like you to contact me back through my email address so that we can know each other and exchange our pictures, and we maybecome partner.

    Best Regards

    I'm thrilled this person "texted my e-mail" and found me on an "email internate search." Perhaps miss(ALDA) can apply to ESPN to be an NFL analyst. Those guys have proven that they'll hire anyone.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: Things were looking up for Matt Hasselbeck's pass protection. In two games against the Vikings and Rams, he was sacked only twice. Unfortunately, things went back to normal when he took five sacks against the 49ers.

    Fortunately for Hasselbeck, he's going against a Texans defense that has just 19 sacks on the year. The only guy who can get any sort of pressure is Mario Williams, but he has a tough matchup against Sean Locklear, who has played really well since coming off his injury.

    Hasselbeck will need tons of pass-protection help because his rushing attack won't net him much. Even if Jim Mora Jr. grows a brain and utilizes Justin Forsett more often, Houston's improved ground defense will neutralize anything the Seahawks attempt to muster on the ground. That said, the Seahawks still should have some success moving the chains; the Texans' secondary has been pretty shaky in coverage this year.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of shaky secondaries, the Seahawks have allowed their previous four opponents to accumulate 250 passing yards or more. Alex Smith even posted career numbers last week.

    The Seahawks won't have an answer for Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. Fortunately, they're catching a break here because it doesn't look like Steve Slaton will be active this week. I know the Texans don't run the ball well, but Slaton would have been a nice option for Schaub coming out of the backfield. Instead, Gary Kubiak could be enticed to try some more nifty halfback options with his BFF Chris Brown.

    RECAP: These teams don't have much to play for, but I'm going to lay the points with the Texans for one simple reason: The Seahawks stink on the road.

    Seattle has one road win this year (at St. Louis). Otherwise, they've lost their games away from Qwest Field by 13, 17, 21, 11 and 26.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Texans might just be playing for Gary Kubiak's job at this point. No edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
    People still love the high-octane Texans.
  • Percentage of money on Houston: 84% (97,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Seahawks are 11-21 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Matt Hasselbeck is 13-18 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Texans are 27-13 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
  • Opening Line: Texans -6.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Texans 31, Seahawks 17
    Texans -7 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 44.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Texans 34, Seahawks 7

    Cincinnati Bengals (9-3) at Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
    Line: Vikings by 6.5. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Vikings -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Vikings -6.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    It's time for the Video of the Week segment. This is an interesting video called Hey Ya! Charlie Brown Style.

    Not only is this one of the most entertaining videos I've ever seen, I've also learned two new awesome dance moves from it. The guy in the orange moving his head from side to side is cool, but check out the guy in the green at the top of the screen. I never knew dancing was so easy!

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings' loss to Arizona was just their second defeat of the season, but quite a few issues arose. First and foremost was shoddy pass protection. Brett Favre constantly had defenders in his face and consequently reverted to the guy we saw in December 2008 - the quarterback who always threw off his back foot and hurled balls into heavy coverage without even looking at his receiver.

    The Bengals don't exactly have the best pass rush in the league, but they do tend to get solid pressure on the quarterback. So, with that in mind, the Vikings will need to establish a potent ground attack with Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately, Peterson has to go up against a very stout Cincinnati defense that hasn't allowed more than 92 rushing yards since Oct. 4.

    With Favre stuck in third-and-long situations, he'll once again have to move the chains on his own amid a solid Bengals pass rush. That could be pretty difficult; Cincinnati has two outstanding corners who will be up to the task of covering Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Another issue for the Vikings is linebacker E.J. Henderson's injury. Henderson provided an enormous presence in the middle of the field, but now Minnesota will have to survive without him.

    The Vikings surprisingly struggled against the run last week, allowing 113 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry to Arizona of all teams. The Bengals love to pound the rock with Cedric Benson, so without Henderson, Minnesota once again could have problems containing the opposing running back.

    With Benson projected to help move the chains, Carson Palmer should have tons of short-yardage situations to work with. It'll be interesting to see if Minnesota's pass-rushing woes that surfaced in Arizona continue to persist.

    RECAP: This is pretty much a meaningless game for the Vikings. They're stuck in limbo; they won't be able to catch the Saints, yet they're not in danger of losing the No. 2 seed. Throw in the fact that this is a battle against a non-conference foe, and I'll be surprised if Minnesota even shows up.

    The Bengals, meanwhile, have everything to play for. First of all, they're competing with the Chargers for a first-round bye. And second, they're playing for respect. When any ESPN analyst mentions the AFC Super Bowl contenders, no one brings up Cincinnati. With a win against the great Brett Favre and the Vikings, the Bengals will finally be in the discussion as one of the elite teams in the league.

    I really like Cincinnati here; this is a great spot for them and they always play well as big underdogs.

    The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
    The Vikings are in limbo, so they have nothing to really play for, especially against a non-conference foe. The Bengals do - a first-round bye. Cincy loves playing in the role of an underdog.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 58% (151,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Losing Coach: Brad Childress is 1-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Bengals are 6-0 ATS as underdogs in 2009.
  • Vikings are 5-9 ATS vs. AFC foes under Brad Childress.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Bengals 20, Vikings 17
    Bengals +6.5 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Under 43 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Vikings 30, Bengals 10

    Carolina Panthers (5-7) at New England Patriots (7-5)
    Line: Patriots by 13. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Patriots -10.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Patriots -11.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 13 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, the Patriots host a Thanksgiving game against Jake Delhomme and the Carolina Panthers. Hmm... I wonder what's going to happen...

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Vegas did a number on everyone who bet the Patriots last week. When the spread dropped from 5.5 to three in a matter of minutes Thursday afternoon, there were rumors swirling that Tom Brady had some sort of injury. It turns out that he hurt his finger, which had a negative effect on him on Sunday, especially in the second half. After halftime, Brady was just 6-of-15, including a very uncharacteristic interception in the end zone.

    There's growing speculation that Brady's finger is broken. Don't expect him to be spectacular here or anything, but he should still be really effective because of Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Carolina's secondary has been very shaky the past five weeks, so even if Brady's finger is broken, the team will still put up some points.

    The Patriots will have tons of success running the ball as well. Carolina's defense has allowed 623 rushing yards the past four weeks. Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris should be able to break big gains on the ground, setting up Brady with short-yardage situations.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: Aside from Brady's finger, New England's greatest problem is its defense. The front seven can't get any pressure on the quarterback, while the secondary can't cover anyone. Except for a few gems like Sebastian Vollmer and Jerod Mayo, Bill Belichick has drafted very poorly the past few years.

    However, that may not matter in this matchup. Matt Moore will start at quarterback for the Panthers. While Moore did a good job taking care of the ball last week, he was just 14-of-20 for 161 yards and an interception. And this was against the Buccaneers, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

    I just have to believe that Bill Belichick will design some schemes to confuse Moore. If Belichick doesn't force Moore into a poor performance, then he's officially lost it. And I think New England will get pressure for a change because Carolina's offensive line is in shambles in the wake of Jordan Gross' injury.

    The only way the Panthers will be able to move the chains is by pounding the rock effectively with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. But considering that the Patriots just limited Ricky Williams and the Dolphins to only 88 rushing yards on a 3.3 average, they should be able to keep Moore in third-and-longs all afternoon.

    RECAP: The Patriots seldom lose two in a row, and they never lose three in a row. The last time Belichick and Brady dropped two consecutive games, they rebounded with a 35-0 victory over the Packers as 5.5-point road favorites in 2006.

    I guess I'm a glutton for punishment because I'm laying five units on New England again despite Brady's finger problems. With everyone doubting them, Belichick and Brady have to bounce back, right? If they don't slaughter the Panthers, we'll know that this team is officially finished.

    FRIDAY UPDATE: is calling for strong winds. I like the under here, and I'm bumping down the Patriots to four units.

    The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
    The last time the Patriots dropped two in a row, they completely debacled the Packers, 35-0, as 5.5-point road favorites. Can you really see Bill Belichick and Tom Brady suffering three consecutive losses?

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action. Why are people betting the Panthers?
  • Percentage of money on New England: 55% (122,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Winning Coach: Bill Belichick is 13-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Panthers are 30-23 ATS as an underdog the previous 53 instances.
  • Patriots are 24-13 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Patriots are 45-34 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Patriots are 17-8 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Tom Brady is 106-33 as a starter (82-55 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 21-8 ATS off a loss.
  • Tom Brady is 13-4 ATS off a loss since 2003.
  • Tom Brady is 4-1 ATS after losing to the Dolphins.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -13.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 32 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 14 NFL Pick: Patriots 28, Panthers 10
    Patriots -13 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Under 43.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Patriots 20, Panthers 10

    Week 14 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Redskins at Raiders, Rams at Titans, Chargers at Cowboys, Eagles at Giants, Cardinals at 49ers

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 14 NFL Picks - Late Games

    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

    2016 NFL Mock Draft - April 9

    2015 NBA Mock Draft - March 25

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 18

    NFL Picks - Feb. 1

    NFL Free Agents


    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

    1 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 (-$770)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2014): -$65

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-41, 55.0% (+$1,500)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 12-17-1, 41.4% (-$1,990)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 144-119-2, 54.8% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$630

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,157-1,978-117, 52.2% (+$10,530)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 694-624-31 (52.7%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 288-251-11 (53.4%)
    Career Over-Under: 1,685-1,655-48 (50.5%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-19 (61.2%)

    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 7-11
    Bears: 8-8
    Bucs: 9-7
    49ers: 8-7
    Eagles: 9-7
    Lions: 8-8
    Falcons: 8-8
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 5-11
    Packers: 13-4
    Panthers: 8-10
    Rams: 8-8
    Redskins: 8-8
    Vikings: 12-4
    Saints: 6-9
    Seahawks: 10-9
    Bills: 7-9
    Bengals: 6-11
    Colts: 8-10
    Broncos: 8-9
    Dolphins: 10-5
    Browns: 9-5
    Jaguars: 10-6
    Chargers: 7-9
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 10-8
    Texans: 8-7
    Chiefs: 9-6
    Patriots: 10-9
    Steelers: 9-8
    Titans: 8-6
    Raiders: 7-9
    Divisional: 36-39 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 14-19 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 29-25 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 47-41 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 35-21 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 16-13 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

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